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Observational const...
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Chang, Kuang YuLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
(author)
Observational constraints reduce model spread but not uncertainty in global wetland methane emission estimates
- Article/chapterEnglish2023
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LIBRIS-ID:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:82fef8d4-e649-4b5e-af07-32284c36e6eb
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https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/82fef8d4-e649-4b5e-af07-32284c36e6ebURI
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https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16755DOI
Supplementary language notes
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Language:English
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Summary in:English
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Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype
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Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype
Notes
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The recent rise in atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations accelerates climate change and offsets mitigation efforts. Although wetlands are the largest natural CH4 source, estimates of global wetland CH4 emissions vary widely among approaches taken by bottom-up (BU) process-based biogeochemical models and top-down (TD) atmospheric inversion methods. Here, we integrate in situ measurements, multi-model ensembles, and a machine learning upscaling product into the International Land Model Benchmarking system to examine the relationship between wetland CH4 emission estimates and model performance. We find that using better-performing models identified by observational constraints reduces the spread of wetland CH4 emission estimates by 62% and 39% for BU- and TD-based approaches, respectively. However, global BU and TD CH4 emission estimate discrepancies increased by about 15% (from 31 to 36 TgCH4 year−1) when the top 20% models were used, although we consider this result moderately uncertain given the unevenly distributed global observations. Our analyses demonstrate that model performance ranking is subject to benchmark selection due to large inter-site variability, highlighting the importance of expanding coverage of benchmark sites to diverse environmental conditions. We encourage future development of wetland CH4 models to move beyond static benchmarking and focus on evaluating site-specific and ecosystem-specific variabilities inferred from observations.
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Riley, William J.Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
(author)
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Collier, NathanOak Ridge National Laboratory
(author)
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McNicol, GavinUniversity of Illinois at Chicago
(author)
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Fluet-Chouinard, EtienneETH Zürich
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Knox, Sara H.University of British Columbia
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Delwiche, Kyle B.University of California, Berkeley
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Jackson, Robert B.Stanford University
(author)
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Poulter, BenjaminNASA Goddard Space Flight Center
(author)
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Saunois, MarielleVersailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines University
(author)
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Chandra, NaveenJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
(author)
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Gedney, NicolaMet Office
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Ishizawa, MisaEnvironment Canada
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Ito, AkihikoNational Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan
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Joos, FortunatUniversity of Bern
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Kleinen, ThomasMax Planck Institute for Meteorology
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Maggi, FedericoUniversity of Sydney
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McNorton, JoeEuropean Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts
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Melton, Joe R.Environment Canada
(author)
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Miller, PaulLund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,LTH profilområde: Aerosoler,LTH profilområden,Lunds Tekniska Högskola,LU profilområde: Naturbaserade framtidslösningar,Lunds universitets profilområden,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,LTH Profile Area: Aerosols,LTH Profile areas,Faculty of Engineering, LTH,LU Profile Area: Nature-based future solutions,Lund University Profile areas(Swepub:lu)nate-pum
(author)
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Niwa, YosukeNational Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan,Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Japan
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Pasut, ChiaraUniversity of Sydney,CSIRO Agriculture & Food
(author)
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Patra, Prabir K.Chiba University,Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
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Peng, ChanghuiHunan Normal University,University Of Quebec In Montreal
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Peng, SushiPeking University
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Segers, ArjoNetherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (Utrecht)
(author)
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Tian, HanqinBoston College
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Tsuruta, AkiFinnish Meteorological Institute
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Yao, YuanzhiEast China Normal University
(author)
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Yin, YiCalifornia Institute of Technology
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Zhang, WenxinLund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science(Swepub:lu)we4544zh
(author)
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Zhang, ZhenUniversity of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,University of Maryland
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Zhu, QingLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
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Zhu, QiuanHohai University
(author)
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Zhuang, QianlaiPurdue University
(author)
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Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryOak Ridge National Laboratory
(creator_code:org_t)
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In:Global Change Biology29:15, s. 4298-43121354-1013
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Chang, Kuang Yu
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Riley, William J ...
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Collier, Nathan
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McNicol, Gavin
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Fluet-Chouinard, ...
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Knox, Sara H.
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Delwiche, Kyle B ...
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Jackson, Robert ...
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Poulter, Benjami ...
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Saunois, Mariell ...
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Chandra, Naveen
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Gedney, Nicola
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Ishizawa, Misa
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Ito, Akihiko
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Joos, Fortunat
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Kleinen, Thomas
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Maggi, Federico
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McNorton, Joe
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Melton, Joe R.
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Miller, Paul
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Niwa, Yosuke
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Pasut, Chiara
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Patra, Prabir K.
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Peng, Changhui
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Peng, Sushi
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Segers, Arjo
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Tian, Hanqin
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Tsuruta, Aki
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Yao, Yuanzhi
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Yin, Yi
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Zhang, Wenxin
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Zhang, Zhen
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Zhu, Qing
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Zhu, Qiuan
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Zhuang, Qianlai
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