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Agricultural breadb...
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Franke, James AUniversity of Chicago
(author)
Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change
- Article/chapterEnglish2022
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LIBRIS-ID:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:87740c51-593c-43c6-8503-46eeca188e6d
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https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/87740c51-593c-43c6-8503-46eeca188e6dURI
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https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15868DOI
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Language:English
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Summary in:English
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Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype
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Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype
Notes
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Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global "breadbaskets". A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climaterelated losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end-of-century warming using 7 process-based models simulating 5 major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies.
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Müller, ChristophLeibniz Association,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research(Swepub:lu)eit-cpm
(author)
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Minoli, SaraPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
(author)
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Elliott, JoshuaUniversity of Chicago
(author)
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Folberth, ChristianInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
(author)
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Gardner, CharlesUniversity of Chicago
(author)
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Hank, TobiasLudwig-Maximilian University of Munich
(author)
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Izaurralde, R CesarUniversity of Maryland
(author)
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Jägermeyr, JonasColumbia University,NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
(author)
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Jones, Curtis DUniversity of Maryland
(author)
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Liu, WenfengSouth China Agricultural University
(author)
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Olin, StefanLund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science(Swepub:lu)nate-sao
(author)
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Pugh, Thomas A MLund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Birmingham Institute of Forest Research,University of Birmingham(Swepub:lu)th5432pu
(author)
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Ruane, Alex CNASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
(author)
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Stephens, HaynesUniversity of Chicago
(author)
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Zabel, FlorianLudwig-Maximilian University of Munich
(author)
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Moyer, Elisabeth JUniversity of Chicago
(author)
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University of ChicagoLeibniz Association
(creator_code:org_t)
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In:Global Change Biology: Wiley28:1, s. 167-1811354-10131365-2486
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Franke, James A
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Müller, Christop ...
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Minoli, Sara
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Elliott, Joshua
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Folberth, Christ ...
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Gardner, Charles
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Hank, Tobias
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Izaurralde, R Ce ...
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Jägermeyr, Jonas
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Jones, Curtis D
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Liu, Wenfeng
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Olin, Stefan
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Pugh, Thomas A M
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Ruane, Alex C
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Stephens, Haynes
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Zabel, Florian
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Moyer, Elisabeth ...
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