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Large uncertainty i...
Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts
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- Krause, Andreas (author)
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
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- Pugh, Thomas A.M. (author)
- University of Birmingham,Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
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- Bayer, Anita D. (author)
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
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- Li, Wei (author)
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
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- Leung, Felix (author)
- University of Exeter
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- Bondeau, Alberte (author)
- Mediterranean Institute of marine and terrestrial Biodiversity and Ecology
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- Doelman, Jonathan C. (author)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Hague
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- Humpenöder, Florian (author)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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- Anthoni, Peter (author)
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
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- Bodirsky, Benjamin L. (author)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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- Ciais, Philippe (author)
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
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- Müller, Christoph (author)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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- Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo (author)
- National Autonomous University of Mexico,University of Exeter
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- Olin, Stefan (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science
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- Popp, Alexander (author)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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- Sitch, Stephen (author)
- University of Exeter
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- Stehfest, Elke (author)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Hague
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- Arneth, Almut (author)
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2018-04-16
- 2018
- English.
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In: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013. ; 24:7, s. 3025-3038
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Abstract
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- Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land-based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land-based mitigation scenarios from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ-GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of land-use models and mitigation scenarios aimed for a cumulative carbon uptake of ~130 GtC by the end of the century, achieved either via the cultivation of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or avoided deforestation and afforestation (ADAFF). Results suggest large uncertainty in simulated future land demand and carbon uptake rates, depending on the assumptions related to land use and land management in the models. Total cumulative carbon uptake in the DGVMs is highly variable across mitigation scenarios, ranging between 19 and 130 GtC by year 2099. Only one out of the 16 combinations of mitigation scenarios and DGVMs achieves an equivalent or higher carbon uptake than achieved in the land-use models. The large differences in carbon uptake between the DGVMs and their discrepancy against the carbon uptake in IMAGE and MAgPIE are mainly due to different model assumptions regarding bioenergy crop yields and due to the simulation of soil carbon response to land-use change. Differences between land-use models and DGVMs regarding forest biomass and the rate of forest regrowth also have an impact, albeit smaller, on the results. Given the low confidence in simulated carbon uptake for a given land-based mitigation scenario, and that negative emissions simulated by the DGVMs are typically lower than assumed in scenarios consistent with the 2°C target, relying on negative emissions to mitigate climate change is a highly uncertain strategy.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- Avoided deforestation and afforestation
- BECCS
- Carbon dioxide removal
- Land-based mitigation
- Negative emissions
Publication and Content Type
- art (subject category)
- ref (subject category)
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- By the author/editor
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Krause, Andreas
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Pugh, Thomas A.M ...
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Bayer, Anita D.
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Li, Wei
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Leung, Felix
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Bondeau, Alberte
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show more...
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Doelman, Jonatha ...
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Humpenöder, Flor ...
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Anthoni, Peter
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Bodirsky, Benjam ...
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Ciais, Philippe
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Müller, Christop ...
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Murray-Tortarolo ...
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Olin, Stefan
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Popp, Alexander
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Sitch, Stephen
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Stehfest, Elke
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Arneth, Almut
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show less...
- About the subject
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Earth and Relate ...
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and Climate Research
- Articles in the publication
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Global Change Bi ...
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Lund University