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El Niño Southern Os...
El Niño Southern Oscillation, monsoon anomaly, and childhood diarrheal disease morbidity in Nepal
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- Adams, Nicholas (author)
- University of Maryland
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- Dhimal, Meghnath (author)
- Nepal Health Research Council
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- Mathews, Shifali (author)
- University of Maryland
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- Iyer, Veena (author)
- Indian Institute of Public Health Gandhinagar (IIPHG)
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- Murtugudde, Raghu (author)
- University of Maryland
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- Liang, Xin-zhong (author)
- University of Maryland
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- Haider, Muhiuddin (author)
- University of Maryland
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- Cruz-cano, Raul (author)
- University of Maryland
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- Thu, Dang Thi Anh (author)
- Hue University
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- Hashim, Jamal Hisham (author)
- University of Selangor
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- Gao, Chuansi (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,-lup-obsolete,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Ergonomi och aerosolteknologi,Institutionen för designvetenskaper,Institutioner vid LTH,Lunds Tekniska Högskola,Thermal Environment Laboratory-lup-obsolete,Lund University Research Groups,Ergonomics and Aerosol Technology,Department of Design Sciences,Departments at LTH,Faculty of Engineering, LTH
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- Wang, Yu-chun (author)
- Chung Yuan Christian University
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- Sapkota, Amir (author)
- University of Maryland
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2022-03-29
- 2022
- English.
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In: PNAS Nexus. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 2752-6542. ; 1:2
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http://dx.doi.org/10... (free)
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Abstract
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- Climate change is adversely impacting the burden of diarrheal diseases. Despite significant reduction in global prevalence, diarrheal disease remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among young children in low- and middle-income countries. Previous studies have shown that diarrheal disease is associated with meteorological conditions but the role of large-scale climate phenomena such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and monsoon anomaly is less understood. We obtained 13 years (2002–2014) of diarrheal disease data from Nepal and investigated how the disease rate is associated with phases of ENSO (El Niño, La Niña, vs. ENSO neutral) monsoon rainfall anomaly (below normal, above normal, vs. normal), and changes in timing of monsoon onset, and withdrawal (early, late, vs. normal). Monsoon season was associated with a 21% increase in diarrheal disease rates (Incident Rate Ratios [IRR]: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.16–1.27). El Niño was associated with an 8% reduction in risk while the La Niña was associated with a 32% increase in under-5 diarrheal disease rates. Likewise, higher-than-normal monsoon rainfall was associated with increased rates of diarrheal disease, with considerably higher rates observed in the mountain region (IRR 1.51, 95% CI: 1.19–1.92). Our findings suggest that under-5 diarrheal disease burden in Nepal is significantly influenced by ENSO and changes in seasonal monsoon dynamics. Since both ENSO phases and monsoon can be predicted with considerably longer lead time compared to weather, our findings will pave the way for the development of more effective early warning systems for climate sensitive infectious diseases.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (hsv//eng)
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Hälsovetenskap -- Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Health Sciences -- Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology (hsv//eng)
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- By the author/editor
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Adams, Nicholas
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Dhimal, Meghnath
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Mathews, Shifali
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Iyer, Veena
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Murtugudde, Ragh ...
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Liang, Xin-zhong
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show more...
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Haider, Muhiuddi ...
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Cruz-cano, Raul
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Thu, Dang Thi An ...
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Hashim, Jamal Hi ...
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Gao, Chuansi
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Wang, Yu-chun
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Sapkota, Amir
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Earth and Relate ...
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and Meteorology and ...
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- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES
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MEDICAL AND HEAL ...
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and Health Sciences
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and Public Health Gl ...
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PNAS Nexus
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Lund University