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Progression of type...
Progression of type 1 diabetes from latency to symptomatic disease is predicted by distinct autoimmune trajectories
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- Kwon, Bum Chul (author)
- IBM Research Cambridge
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- Anand, Vibha (author)
- IBM Research Cambridge
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- Achenbach, Peter (author)
- Helmholtz Zentrum München
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- Dunne, Jessica L (author)
- Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation
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- Hagopian, William (author)
- Pacific Northwest Research Institute
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- Hu, Jianying (author)
- IBM Research
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- Koski, Eileen (author)
- IBM Research
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- Lernmark, Åke (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Celiaki och diabetes,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Celiac Disease and Diabetes Unit,Lund University Research Groups,Skåne University Hospital
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- Lundgren, Markus (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Pediatrisk endokrinologi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Paediatric Endocrinology,Lund University Research Groups,Skåne University Hospital
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- Ng, Kenney (author)
- IBM Research Cambridge
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- Toppari, Jorma (author)
- Turku University Hospital
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- Veijola, Riitta (author)
- University of Oulu
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- Frohnert, Brigitte I (author)
- University of Colorado
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(creator_code:org_t)
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- 2022-03-21
- 2022
- English.
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In: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 13, s. 1-9
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Abstract
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- Development of islet autoimmunity precedes the onset of type 1 diabetes in children, however, the presence of autoantibodies does not necessarily lead to manifest disease and the onset of clinical symptoms is hard to predict. Here we show, by longitudinal sampling of islet autoantibodies (IAb) to insulin, glutamic acid decarboxylase and islet antigen-2 that disease progression follows distinct trajectories. Of the combined Type 1 Data Intelligence cohort of 24662 participants, 2172 individuals fulfill the criteria of two or more follow-up visits and IAb positivity at least once, with 652 progressing to type 1 diabetes during the 15 years course of the study. Our Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Models, that are developed to discover and visualize latent states based on the collected data and clinical characteristics of the patients, show that the health state of participants progresses from 11 distinct latent states as per three trajectories (TR1, TR2 and TR3), with associated 5-year cumulative diabetes-free survival of 40% (95% confidence interval [CI], 35% to 47%), 62% (95% CI, 57% to 67%), and 88% (95% CI, 85% to 91%), respectively (p < 0.0001). Age, sex, and HLA-DR status further refine the progression rates within trajectories, enabling clinically useful prediction of disease onset.
Subject headings
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Klinisk medicin -- Endokrinologi och diabetes (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Clinical Medicine -- Endocrinology and Diabetes (hsv//eng)
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- ref (subject category)
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- By the author/editor
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Kwon, Bum Chul
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Anand, Vibha
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Achenbach, Peter
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Dunne, Jessica L
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Hagopian, Willia ...
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Hu, Jianying
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show more...
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Koski, Eileen
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Lernmark, Åke
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Lundgren, Markus
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Ng, Kenney
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Toppari, Jorma
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Veijola, Riitta
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Frohnert, Brigit ...
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show less...
- About the subject
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- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES
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MEDICAL AND HEAL ...
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and Clinical Medicin ...
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and Endocrinology an ...
- Articles in the publication
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Nature Communica ...
- By the university
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Lund University