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Hotspots of uncerta...
Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections : a global-scale model comparison
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- Prestele, Reinhard (author)
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
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- Alexander, Peter (author)
- University of Edinburgh
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- Rounsevell, Mark D A (author)
- University of Edinburgh
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- Arneth, Almut (author)
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
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- Calvin, Katherine (author)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
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- Doelman, Jonathan (author)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Bilthoven
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- Eitelberg, David A. (author)
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
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- Engström, Kerstin (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science
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- Fujimori, Shinichiro (author)
- National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan
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- Hasegawa, Tomoko (author)
- National Institute for Environmental Studies
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- Havlik, Petr (author)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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- Humpenöder, Florian (author)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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- Jain, Atul K. (author)
- University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
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- Krisztin, Tamás (author)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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- Kyle, Page (author)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
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- Meiyappan, Prasanth (author)
- University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
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- Popp, Alexander (author)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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- Sands, Ronald D. (author)
- United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
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- Schaldach, Rüdiger (author)
- University of Kassel
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- Schüngel, Jan (author)
- University of Kassel
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- Stehfest, Elke (author)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Bilthoven
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- Tabeau, Andrzej (author)
- Wageningen University
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- Van Meijl, Hans (author)
- Wageningen University
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- Van Vliet, Jasper (author)
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
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- Verburg, Peter H. (author)
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research,Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2016-06-08
- 2016
- English 17 s.
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In: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 22:12, s. 3967-3983
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)
- LANTBRUKSVETENSKAPER -- Annan lantbruksvetenskap -- Miljö- och naturvårdsvetenskap (hsv//swe)
- AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES -- Other Agricultural Sciences -- Environmental Sciences related to Agriculture and Land-use (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- land-use allocation
- land-use change
- land-use model uncertainty
- map comparison
- model intercomparison
- model variation
Publication and Content Type
- art (subject category)
- ref (subject category)
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- By the author/editor
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Prestele, Reinha ...
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Alexander, Peter
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Rounsevell, Mark ...
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Arneth, Almut
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Calvin, Katherin ...
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Doelman, Jonatha ...
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show more...
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Eitelberg, David ...
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Engström, Kersti ...
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Fujimori, Shinic ...
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Hasegawa, Tomoko
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Havlik, Petr
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Humpenöder, Flor ...
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Jain, Atul K.
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Krisztin, Tamás
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Kyle, Page
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Meiyappan, Prasa ...
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Popp, Alexander
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Sands, Ronald D.
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Schaldach, Rüdig ...
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Schüngel, Jan
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Stehfest, Elke
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Tabeau, Andrzej
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Van Meijl, Hans
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Van Vliet, Jaspe ...
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Verburg, Peter H ...
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Climate Research
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AGRICULTURAL SCI ...
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Global Change Bi ...
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