Climate impact of transportation: A model comparison

Girod, BastienEidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETH),Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich (ETH),Universiteit Utrecht,Utrecht University (author)

Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO2 emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), fuel use, and CO2 emissions of five different global transport models using harmonized input assumptions on income and population. For four models we also evaluate the impact of a carbon tax. All models project a steep increase in service demand over the century. Technology change is important for limiting energy consumption and CO2 emissions, the study also shows that in order to stabilise or even decrease emissions radical changes would be required. While all models project liquidfossil fuels dominating up to 2050, they differ regarding the use of alternative fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, biofuels, and electricity), because of different fuel price projections. The carbon tax of 200 USD/tCO2 in 2050 stabilizes or reverses global emission growth in all models. Besides common findings many differences in the model assumptions and projections indicate room for further understanding long-term trends and uncertainty in future transport systems.

van Duuren, D.PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency,Universiteit Utrecht,Utrecht University (author)
Grahn, Maria,1963Chalmers tekniska högskola,Chalmers University of Technology(Swepub:cth)np97magr (author)
Kitous, AlbanEuropeiska kommissionens gemensamma forskningscentrum (JRC),Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission (author)
Kim, Son HPacific Northwest National Laboratory (author)
Kyle, P.Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (author)
Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETH)Universiteit Utrecht (creator_code:org_t)

In:Climatic Change: Springer Science and Business Media LLC118:3-4, s. 595-6081573-14800165-0009

By the author/editor: Girod, Bastien; van Duuren, D.; Grahn, Maria, 19 ...; Kitous, Alban; Kim, Son H; Kyle, P.

About the subject

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY: ENGINEERING AND ...; and Environmental En ...; and Energy Systems

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