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Model uncertainty, ...
Model uncertainty, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the science-policy interface
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- Thorén, Henrik (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Teoretisk filosofi,Filosofiska institutionen,Institutioner,Humanistiska och teologiska fakulteterna,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,LUCSUS,Samhällsvetenskapliga institutioner och centrumbildningar,Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten,Theoretical Philosophy,Department of Philosophy,Departments,Joint Faculties of Humanities and Theology,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,LUCSUS (Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies),Departments of Administrative, Economic and Social Sciences,Faculty of Social Sciences
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- Gerlee, Philip, 1980 (author)
- University of Gothenburg,Chalmers University of Technology,Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för matematiska vetenskaper,Department of Mathematical Sciences
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2024
- 2024
- English.
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In: Royal Society Open Science. - 2054-5703. ; 11:2
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- The COVID-19 pandemic illustrated many of the challenges with using science to guide planning and policymaking. One such challenge has to do with how to manage, represent and communicate uncertainties in epidemiological models. This is considerably complicated, we argue, by the fact that the models themselves are often instrumental in structuring the involved uncertainties. In this paper we explore how models 'domesticate' uncertainties and what this implies for science-for-policy. We analyse three examples of uncertainty domestication in models of COVID-19 and argue that we need to pay more attention to how uncertainties are domesticated in models used for policy support, and the many ways in which uncertainties are domesticated within particular models can fail to fit with the needs and demands of policymakers and planners.
Subject headings
- HUMANIORA -- Filosofi, etik och religion -- Filosofi (hsv//swe)
- HUMANITIES -- Philosophy, Ethics and Religion -- Philosophy (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Matematik -- Beräkningsmatematik (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Mathematics -- Computational Mathematics (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Hälsovetenskap -- Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Health Sciences -- Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- science-policy interface
- epidemiology
- uncertainty
- policy
- COVID-19
- uncertainty
- policy
- COVID-19
- epidemiology
- science-policy interface
Publication and Content Type
- art (subject category)
- ref (subject category)
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