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Coal-exit alliance ...
Coal-exit alliance must confront freeriding sectors to propel Paris-aligned momentum
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- Bi, Stephen L. (author)
- Technische Universität Berlin,Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK),Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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- Bauer, Nico (author)
- Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK),Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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- Jewell, Jessica, 1982 (author)
- Internationales Institut fuer Angewandte Systemanalyse,International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,Universitetet i Bergen,University of Bergen,Chalmers tekniska högskola,Chalmers University of Technology
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2023-02-06
- 2023
- English.
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-6798 .- 1758-678X. ; 13:2, s. 130-139
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- The global phase-out of coal by mid-century is considered vital to the Paris Agreement to limit warming well-below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Since the inception of the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA) at COP23, political ambitions to accelerate the decline of coal have mounted to become the foremost priority at COP26. However, mitigation research lacks the tools to assess whether this bottom-up momentum can self-propagate toward Paris alignment. Here, we introduce dynamic policy evaluation (DPE), an evidence-based approach for emulating real-world policy-making. Given empirical relationships established between energy-economic developments and policy adoption, we endogenize national political decision-making into the integrated assessment model REMIND via multistage feedback loops with a probabilistic coalition accession model. DPE finds global PPCA participation <5% likely against a current policies backdrop and, counterintuitively, foresees that intracoalition leakage risks may severely compromise sector-specific, demand-side action. DPE further enables policies to interact endogenously, demonstrated here by the PPCA’s path-dependence to COVID-19 recovery investments.
Subject headings
- SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP -- Annan samhällsvetenskap -- Tvärvetenskapliga studier inom samhällsvetenskap (hsv//swe)
- SOCIAL SCIENCES -- Other Social Sciences -- Social Sciences Interdisciplinary (hsv//eng)
- SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP -- Statsvetenskap -- Studier av offentlig förvaltning (hsv//swe)
- SOCIAL SCIENCES -- Political Science -- Public Administration Studies (hsv//eng)
- SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP -- Statsvetenskap -- Statsvetenskap (hsv//swe)
- SOCIAL SCIENCES -- Political Science -- Political Science (hsv//eng)
Publication and Content Type
- art (subject category)
- ref (subject category)
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