Operational reliability of multi-energy customers considering service-based self-scheduling

• The developments of energy storage and substitution techniques have made it possible for customers to self-schedule their energy consumption behaviors, to better satisfy their demands in response to uncertain supply conditions. The interdependency of multiple energies, the chronological characteristics, and uncertainties in the self-scheduling context bring about additional complexities to secure the reliable energy requirements of multi-energy customers. As a necessary and challenging task, the operational reliability of multi-energy customers is tackled in this paper. Considering that the consumed energies eventually come down to the energy-related services, the self-scheduling of multi-energy customers is implemented from the perspective of specific energy-related services rather than energy carriers. Firstly, an optimal self-scheduling model for multi-energy customers is developed with the consideration of chronological service curtailment, service shifting and possible failures during service shifting. In the optimal self-scheduling model, the costs of service curtailment and shifting are formulated based on the proposed evaluation method. The time-sequential Monte Carlo simulation approach is applied to model the chronological volatilities of multi-energy demands over the entire study period, embedded with a scenario reduction technique to reduce the computational efforts. Taking full account of the possible scenarios, the quantitative reliability indices of the multi-energy customers can be obtained. The results in test cases demonstrate that the expected energy not supplied of the multi-energy customer drops significantly by 56.32% with the self-scheduling strategy. It can be also concluded that, the self-scheduling and its inherent uncertainties do have significant impacts on the operational reliability of the multi-energy customer.

Ämnesord

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Maskinteknik -- Energiteknik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Mechanical Engineering -- Energy Engineering (hsv//eng)

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Naturresursteknik -- Energisystem (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Environmental Engineering -- Energy Systems (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Multi-energy customer

Multi-energy flexible service

Operational reliability

Self-schedule

Time-sequential Monte Carlo simulation

Customer satisfaction

Energy utilization

Intelligent systems

Reliability

Sales

Scheduling

Flexible service

Multi energy

Time sequential Monte Carlo Simulation

Monte Carlo methods

energy efficiency

energy storage

energy use

Monte Carlo analysis

operations technology

reliability analysis

uncertainty analysis

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