Effects of water system uncertainties on effectiveness and efficiency of environmental policy and management

Destouni, GeorgiaStockholms universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK) (författare)

Invited
Increasing water pollution and deterioration of aquatic ecosystems are serious environmental problems. Modelling of pollutant transport, mass transfer, attenuation and downstream loading, from various pollutant sources, along different hydrological pathways, to water recipients, is needed for relevant decisions on effective allocation of pollution abatement measures. However, it is for various reasons (measurement and monitoring gaps; scientifically unresolved modelling disagreements; large, irregular and deterministically unquantifiable or unpredictable natural variability) both difficult and uncertain to quantify the real effects of upstream pollutant emission changes on downstream pollutant loads and concentrations. Furthermore, it may also be highly uncertain which pollutant load and concentration level reductions that are necessary and sufficient for achieving good water quality and ecosystem status in different water environments. These uncertainties may have large effects on pollution abatement that need to be recognized and handled in environmental policy. We discuss here how the water system uncertainty effects may be set in a wider decision making context, by quantifying their implications for both the probability of success and the economic performance of different environmental policies and management strategies.

Stockholms universitetInstitutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK) (creator_code:org_t)

Ingår i:International Workshop on Uncertainty in Environmental Modelling, Earth Sciences Centre, Uppsala University, 28-30 March, 2007

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