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Risk prediction of ...
Risk prediction of cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes : A risk equation from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR)
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- Cederholm, Jan (författare)
- Uppsala universitet,Allmänmedicin och klinisk epidemiologi
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Eeg-Olofsson, Katarina (författare)
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Eliasson, Björn (författare)
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- Zethelius, Björn (författare)
- Uppsala universitet,Institutionen för folkhälso- och vårdvetenskap,Geriatrics
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Nilsson, Peter M (författare)
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Gudbjörnsdottir, Soffia (författare)
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(creator_code:org_t)
- American Diabetes Association, 2008
- 2008
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Diabetes Care. - : American Diabetes Association. - 0149-5992 .- 1935-5548. ; 31:10, s. 2038-2043
- Relaterad länk:
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http://care.diabetes...
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.2...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- OBJECTIVE - Risk prediction models obtained in samples from the general population do mot perform well in type 2 diabetic patients. Recently, 5-year risk estimates were proposed as being more accurate than 10-year risk estimates. This study presents a diabetes-specific equation for estimation of the absolute 5-year risk of first incident fatal/nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetic patients with the use of A1C and clinical characteristics.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - The study was based on 11,646 female and male patients, aged 18-70 years, from the Swedish National Diabetes Register with 1,482 first incident CVD events based on 58,342 person-years with mean follow-up) of 5.64 years.RESULTS - This risk equation incorporates A1C, as in the UK Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine, and several clinical characteristics: onset age of diabetes, diabetes duration, sex, BMI, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and antihypertensive and lipid-reducing drugs. All predictors included were associated with the Outcome (P < 0.0001, except for BMI P = 0.0016) with Cox regression analysis. Calibration was excellent when assessed by comparing observed and predicted risk. Discrimination was sufficient, with a receiver operator curve statistic of 0.70. Mean 5-year risk of CVD in all patients was 12.0 +/- 7.5%, whereas 54% of the patients had a 5-year risk >= 10%.CONCLUSIONS - This more simplified risk equation enables 5-year risk prediction of CVD based on easily available nonlaboratory predictors in clinical practice and A1C and was elaborated in a large observational study obtained from the normal patient population aged up to 70 years.
Nyckelord
- MEDICINE
- MEDICIN
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- ref (ämneskategori)
- art (ämneskategori)
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