Average uranium bedrock concentration in Swedish municipalities predicts male lung cancer incidence rate when adjusted for smoking prevalence: Indication of a cumulative radon induced detriment?

• Bedrock U has been used as a proxy for local indoor radon exposure. A preliminary assessment of cancer incidence rate in a cohort of 809,939 adult males living in 9 different Swedish counties in 1986 has been used to correlate the cumulative lung cancer and total cancer (excluding lung) incidence rates between 1986 and 2020, respectively with the municipality average value of bedrock U concentration obtained from Swedish geological Survey (SGU). To control for regional difference in tobacco smoking, data on county average smoking prevalence, obtained from a survey conducted by the Public Health Agency of Sweden from 2001 to 2004, was used. Regression analysis shows that there is a significant positive correlation between smoking prevalence adjusted lung cancer incidence rate in males and the municipality bedrock U concentration (R2 = 0.273 with a slope 5.0 ± 0.87·10−3 ppm−1). The correlation is even more significant (R2 = 0.759 with a slope = 4.8 ± 0.25·10−3 ppm−1) when assessed on population weighted cancer incidence data binned in nine intervals of municipality average bedrock U concentration (ranging from 0.97 to 4.9 ppm). When assessing the corresponding correlations for total cancer incidence rate (excluding cancer of the lung) with adjustment for smoking prevalence, there appears to be no or little correlation with bedrock U concentration (R2 = 0.031). We conclude that an expanded future study needs age-standardized cancer incidence data to obtain a more consistent exposure-response model. Such model could be used to predict future lung cancer cases based on geological survey maps of bedrock U as an alternative to laborious indoor radon measurements, and to discern what future lung cancer rates can be expected for a population nearing zero smoking prevalence, with and without radon prevention. © 2022 The Authors

Ämnesord

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Klinisk medicin (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Clinical Medicine (hsv//eng)

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Hälsovetenskap -- Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Health Sciences -- Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology (hsv//eng)

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Klinisk medicin -- Radiologi och bildbehandling (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Clinical Medicine -- Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Medical Imaging (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Bedrock uranium

Lung cancer incidence rate

Radon exposure

Smoking prevalence

Biological organs

Diseases

Geological surveys

Geology

Population statistics

Radon

Regression analysis

Average values

Bedrock urania

Incidence rate

Indoor radon

Lung Cancer

Preliminary assessment

Smoking prevalences

Swedishs

Uranium

Bedrock uranium

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