Sökning: onr:"swepub:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:09e079c3-d0b6-444a-bc29-082728d0eeb6" > Assessing uncertain...
Fältnamn | Indikatorer | Metadata |
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000 | 06074naa a2200829 4500 | |
001 | oai:lup.lub.lu.se:09e079c3-d0b6-444a-bc29-082728d0eeb6 | |
003 | SwePub | |
008 | 161010s2017 | |||||||||||000 ||eng| | |
024 | 7 | a https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/09e079c3-d0b6-444a-bc29-082728d0eeb62 URI |
024 | 7 | a https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.134472 DOI |
040 | a (SwePub)lu | |
041 | a engb eng | |
042 | 9 SwePub | |
072 | 7 | a art2 swepub-publicationtype |
072 | 7 | a ref2 swepub-contenttype |
100 | 1 | a Alexander, Peteru Scotland’s Rural College,University of Edinburgh4 aut |
245 | 1 0 | a Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections |
264 | c 2016-08-20 | |
264 | 1 | b Wiley,c 2017 |
520 | a Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover. | |
650 | 7 | a NATURVETENSKAPx Geovetenskap och miljövetenskapx Klimatforskning0 (SwePub)105012 hsv//swe |
650 | 7 | a NATURAL SCIENCESx Earth and Related Environmental Sciencesx Climate Research0 (SwePub)105012 hsv//eng |
650 | 7 | a LANTBRUKSVETENSKAPERx Annan lantbruksvetenskapx Miljö- och naturvårdsvetenskap0 (SwePub)405042 hsv//swe |
650 | 7 | a AGRICULTURAL SCIENCESx Other Agricultural Sciencesx Environmental Sciences related to Agriculture and Land-use0 (SwePub)405042 hsv//eng |
653 | a Cropland | |
653 | a Land cover | |
653 | a Land use | |
653 | a Model inter-comparison | |
653 | a Uncertainty | |
700 | 1 | a Prestele, Reinhardu Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Verburg, Peter H.u Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Arneth, Almutu Karlsruhe Institute of Technology4 aut0 (Swepub:lu)nate-aar |
700 | 1 | a Baranzelli, Claudiau European Commission, Italy4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Batista e Silva, Filipeu European Commission, Italy4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Brown, Calumu University of Edinburgh4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Butler, Adamu Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Calvin, Katherineu Pacific Northwest National Laboratory4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Dendoncker, Nicolasu University of Namur4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Doelman, Jonathan C.u Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Bilthoven4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Dunford, Robertu University of Oxford4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Engstrom, Kerstinu Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science4 aut0 (Swepub:lu)nate-kba |
700 | 1 | a Eitelberg, Davidu Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Fujimori, Shinichirou National Institute for Environmental Studies4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Harrison, Paula A.u Lancaster University4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Hasegawa, Tomokou National Institute for Environmental Studies4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Havlik, Petru International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Holzhauer, Saschau University of Edinburgh4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Humpenöder, Florianu Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Jacobs-Crisioni, Chrisu European Commission, Italy4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Jain, Atul K.u University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Krisztin, Tamásu International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Kyle, Pageu Pacific Northwest National Laboratory4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Lavalle, Carlou European Commission, Italy4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Lenton, Timu University of Exeter4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Liu, Jiayiu Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Meiyappan, Prasanthu University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Popp, Alexanderu Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Powell, Tomu University of Exeter4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Sands, Ronald D.u United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Schaldach, Rüdigeru University of Kassel4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Stehfest, Elkeu Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Bilthoven4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Steinbuks, Jevgenijsu World Bank (WB)4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Tabeau, Andrzeju Wageningen University4 aut |
700 | 1 | a van Meijl, Hansu Wageningen University4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Wise, Marshall A.u Pacific Northwest National Laboratory4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Rounsevell, Mark D A4 aut |
710 | 2 | a Scotland’s Rural Collegeb University of Edinburgh4 org |
773 | 0 | t Global Change Biologyd : Wileyg 23:2, s. 767-781q 23:2<767-781x 1354-1013 |
856 | 4 | u http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13447y FULLTEXT |
856 | 4 | u http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/515511/1/N515511PP.pdf |
856 | 4 8 | u https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/09e079c3-d0b6-444a-bc29-082728d0eeb6 |
856 | 4 8 | u https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13447 |
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