| 1. |
- Alfredsson, Joakim, et al.
(författare)
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Predicting the risk of bleeding during dual antiplatelet therapy after acute coronary syndromes
- 2017
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Ingår i: Heart. - : BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP. - 1355-6037 .- 1468-201X. ; 103:15, s. 1168-1176
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives Dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) with aspirin + a P2Y12 inhibitor is recommended for at least 12 months for patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), with shorter durations considered for patients with increased bleeding risk. However, there are no decision support tools available to predict an individual patients bleeding risk during DAPT treatment in the post-ACS setting. Methods To develop a longitudinal bleeding risk prediction model, we analysed 9240 patients with unstable angina/non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) from the Targeted Platelet Inhibition to Clarify the Optimal Strategy to Medically Manage Acute Coronary Syndromes (TRILOGY ACS) trial, who were managed without revascularisation and treated with DAPT for a median of 14.8 months. Results We identified 10 significant baseline predictors of non-coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG)-related Global Use of Strategies to Open Occluded Arteries (GUSTO) severe/life-threatening/moderate bleeding: age, sex, weight, NSTEMI (vs unstable angina), angiography performed before randomisation, prior peptic ulcer disease, creatinine, systolic blood pressure, haemoglobin and treatment with beta-blocker. The five significant baseline predictors of Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) major or minor bleeding included age, sex, angiography performed before randomisation, creatinine and haemoglobin. The models showed good predictive accuracy with Therneaus C-indices: 0.78 (SE=0.024) for the GUSTO model and 0.67 (SE=0.023) for the TIMI model. Internal validation with bootstrapping gave similar C-indices of 0.77 and 0.65, respectively. External validation demonstrated an attenuated C-index for the GUSTO model (0.69) but not the TIMI model (0.68). Conclusions Longitudinal bleeding risks during treatment with DAPT in patients with ACS can be reliably predicted using selected baseline characteristics. The TRILOGY ACS bleeding models can inform riskbenefit considerations regarding the duration of DAPT following ACS.
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| 2. |
- Beaney, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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May Measurement Month 2017 : an analysis of blood pressure screening results worldwide
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet Global Health. - 2214-109X. ; 6:7, s. 736-743
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Increased blood pressure is the biggest contributor to the global burden of disease and mortality. Data suggest that less than half of the population with hypertension is aware of it. May Measurement Month was initiated to raise awareness of the importance of blood pressure and as a pragmatic interim solution to the shortfall in screening programmes. Methods: This cross-sectional survey included volunteer adults (≥18 years) who ideally had not had their blood pressures measured in the past year. Each participant had their blood pressure measured three times and received a a questionnaire about demographic, lifestyle, and environmental factors. The primary objective was to raise awareness of blood pressure, measured by number of countries involved, number of people screened, and number of people who have untreated or inadequately treated hypertension (defined as systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg, or both, or on the basis of receiving antihypertensive medication). Multiple imputation was used to estimate the mean of the second and third blood pressure readings if these were not recorded. Measures of association were analysed using linear mixed models. Findings: Data were collected from 1 201 570 individuals in 80 countries. After imputation, of the 1 128 635 individuals for whom a mean of the second and third readings was available, 393 924 (34·9%) individuals had hypertension. 153 905 (17·3%) of 888 616 individuals who were not receiving antihypertensive treatment were hypertensive, and 105 456 (46·3%) of the 227 721 individuals receiving treatment did not have controlled blood pressure. Significant differences in adjusted blood pressures and hypertension prevalence were apparent between regions. Adjusted blood pressure was higher in association with antihypertensive medication, diabetes, cerebrovascular disease, smoking, and alcohol consumption. Blood pressure was higher when measured on the right arm than on the left arm, and blood pressure was highest on Saturdays. Interpretation: Inexpensive global screening of blood pressure is achievable using volunteers and convenience sampling. Pending the set-up of systematic surveillance systems worldwide, MMM will be repeated annually to raise awareness of blood pressure. Funding: International Society of Hypertension, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Servier Pharmaceutical Co.
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| 3. |
- Beaney, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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May Measurement Month 2018 : a pragmatic global screening campaign to raise awareness of blood pressure by the International Society of Hypertension
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1522-9645 .- 0195-668X. ; 40:25, s. 2006-2017
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AIMS: Raised blood pressure (BP) is the biggest contributor to mortality and disease burden worldwide and fewer than half of those with hypertension are aware of it. May Measurement Month (MMM) is a global campaign set up in 2017, to raise awareness of high BP and as a pragmatic solution to a lack of formal screening worldwide. The 2018 campaign was expanded, aiming to include more participants and countries. METHODS AND RESULTS: Eighty-nine countries participated in MMM 2018. Volunteers (≥18 years) were recruited through opportunistic sampling at a variety of screening sites. Each participant had three BP measurements and completed a questionnaire on demographic, lifestyle, and environmental factors. Hypertension was defined as a systolic BP ≥140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥90 mmHg, or taking antihypertensive medication. In total, 74.9% of screenees provided three BP readings. Multiple imputation using chained equations was used to impute missing readings. 1 504 963 individuals (mean age 45.3 years; 52.4% female) were screened. After multiple imputation, 502 079 (33.4%) individuals had hypertension, of whom 59.5% were aware of their diagnosis and 55.3% were taking antihypertensive medication. Of those on medication, 60.0% were controlled and of all hypertensives, 33.2% were controlled. We detected 224 285 individuals with untreated hypertension and 111 214 individuals with inadequately treated (systolic BP ≥ 140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥ 90 mmHg) hypertension. CONCLUSION: May Measurement Month expanded significantly compared with 2017, including more participants in more countries. The campaign identified over 335 000 adults with untreated or inadequately treated hypertension. In the absence of systematic screening programmes, MMM was effective at raising awareness at least among these individuals at risk.
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| 4. |
- Beaney, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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May measurement month 2019 : The global blood pressure screening campaign of the international society of hypertension
- 2020
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Ingår i: Hypertension. - 0194-911X. ; 76:2, s. 333-341
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Elevated blood pressure remains the single biggest risk factor contributing to the global burden of disease and mortality. May Measurement Month is an annual global screening campaign aiming to improve awareness of blood pressure at the individual and population level. Adults (≥18 years) recruited through opportunistic sampling were screened at sites in 92 countries during May 2019. Ideally, 3 blood pressure readings were measured for each participant, and data on lifestyle factors and comorbidities were collected. Hypertension was defined as a systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg, or a diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg (mean of the second and third readings) or taking antihypertensive medication. When necessary, multiple imputation was used to estimate participants' mean blood pressure. Mixed-effects models were used to evaluate associations between blood pressure and participant characteristics. Of 1 508 130 screenees 482 273 (32.0%) had never had a blood pressure measurement before and 513 337 (34.0%) had hypertension, of whom 58.7% were aware, and 54.7% were on antihypertensive medication. Of those on medication, 57.8% were controlled to <140/90 mm Hg, and 28.9% to <130/80 mm Hg. Of all those with hypertension, 31.7% were controlled to <140/90 mm Hg, and 350 825 (23.3%) participants had untreated or inadequately treated hypertension. Of those taking antihypertensive medication, half were taking only a single drug, and 25% reported using aspirin inappropriately. This survey is the largest ever synchronized and standardized contemporary compilation of global blood pressure data. This campaign is needed as a temporary substitute for systematic blood pressure screening in many countries worldwide.
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| 5. |
- Chan, Mark Y., et al.
(författare)
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Temporal biomarker profiling reveals longitudinal changes in risk of death or myocardial infarction in Non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome
- 2017
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Ingår i: Clinical Chemistry. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0009-9147 .- 1530-8561. ; 63:7, s. 1214-1226
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: There are conflicting data on whether changes in N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) concentrations between time points (delta NT-proBNP and hs-CRP) are associated with a change in prognosis. METHODS: We measured NT-proBNP and hs-CRP at 3 time points in 1665 patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTEACS). Cox proportional hazards was applied to the delta between temporal measurements to determine the continuous association with cardiovascular events. Effect estimates for delta NT-proBNP and hs-CRP are presented per 40% increase as the basic unit of temporal change. RESULTS: Median NT-proBNP was 370.0 (25th, 75th percentiles, 130.0, 996.0), 340.0 (135.0, 875.0), and 267.0 (111.0, 684.0) ng/L; and median hs-CRP was 4.6 (1.7, 13.1), 1.9 (0.8, 4.5), and 1.8 (0.8, 4.4) mg/L at baseline, 30 days, and 6 months, respectively. The deltas between baseline and 6 months were the most prognostically informative. Every 40% increase of delta NTproBNP (baseline to 6 months) was associated with a 14% greater risk of cardiovascular death (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.14, 95% CI, 1.03-1.27) and with a 14% greater risk of all-cause death (adjusted HR 1.14, 95% CI, 1.04 -1.26), while every 40% increase of delta hs- CRP (baseline to 6 months) was associated with a 9% greater risk of the composite end point (adjusted HR 1.09, 95% CI, 1.02-1.17) and a 10% greater risk of myocardial infarction (adjusted HR 1.10, 95%, CI 1.00 -1.20). CONCLUSIONS: Temporal changes in NT-proBNP and hs-CRP are quantitatively associated with future cardiovascular events, supporting their role in dynamic risk stratification of NSTEACS.
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| 6. |
- Cornel, Jan H., et al.
(författare)
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Relationship of Platelet Reactivity With Bleeding Outcomes During Long-Term Treatment With Dual Antiplatelet Therapy For Medically Managed Patients With Non-St-Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndromes
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Heart Association. - 2047-9980. ; 5:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background--The relationship between "on-treatment" low platelet reactivity and longitudinal risks of major bleeding dual antiplatelet therapy following acute coronary syndromes remains uncertain, especially for patients who do not undergo percutaneous coronary intervention. Methods and Results--We analyzed 2428medicallymanaged acute coronary syndromes patients fromthe Targeted Platelet Inhibition to Clarify the Optimal Strategy to Medically Manage Acute Coronary Syndromes (TRILOGY ACS) trial who had serial platelet reactivity measurements (P2Y12 reaction units; PRUs) and were randomized to aspirin+prasugrel versus aspirin+clopidogrel for up to 30 months. Contal's method was used to determine whether a cut point for steady-state PRU values could distinguish high versus low bleeding risk using 2-level composites: Global Use of Strategies to Open Occluded Coronary Arteries (GUSTO) severe/life-threatening or moderate bleeding unrelated to coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and non-CABG Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) major orminor bleeding. Exploratory analyses used 3-level composites that incorporatedmild andminimalGUSTOand TIMI events.Continuousmeasures of PRUs (per 10-unit decrease)were not independently associatedwith the 2-levelGUSTO (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.01; 95% CI, 0.96-1.06) or TIMI composites (1.02; 0.98-1.07). Furthermore, no PRU cut point could significantly distinguish bleeding risk using the 2-level composites.However, the PRUcut point of 75 differentiated bleeding riskwith the 3-level composites ofGUSTO(26.5% vs 12.6%; adjusted HR, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.77-2.94; P<0.001) and TIMI bleeding events (25.9% vs 12.2%; adjusted HR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.78-2.97; P<0.001). Conclusions--Among medically managed non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes patients receiving prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy, PRU values were not significantly associated with the long-term risk of major bleeding events, suggesting that low on-treatment platelet reactivity does not independently predict serious bleeding risk.
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| 7. |
- Flannick, Jason, et al.
(författare)
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Data Descriptor : Sequence data and association statistics from 12,940 type 2 diabetes cases and controls
- 2017
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Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2052-4463. ; 4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To investigate the genetic basis of type 2 diabetes (T2D) to high resolution, the GoT2D and T2D-GENES consortia catalogued variation from whole-genome sequencing of 2,657 European individuals and exome sequencing of 12,940 individuals of multiple ancestries. Over 27M SNPs, indels, and structural variants were identified, including 99% of low-frequency (minor allele frequency [MAF] 0.1-5%) non-coding variants in the whole-genome sequenced individuals and 99.7% of low-frequency coding variants in the whole-exome sequenced individuals. Each variant was tested for association with T2D in the sequenced individuals, and, to increase power, most were tested in larger numbers of individuals (> 80% of low-frequency coding variants in similar to ~82 K Europeans via the exome chip, and similar to ~90% of low-frequency non-coding variants in similar to ~44 K Europeans via genotype imputation). The variants, genotypes, and association statistics from these analyses provide the largest reference to date of human genetic information relevant to T2D, for use in activities such as T2D-focused genotype imputation, functional characterization of variants or genes, and other novel analyses to detect associations between sequence variation and T2D.
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| 8. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 9. |
- Fuchsberger, Christian, et al.
(författare)
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The genetic architecture of type 2 diabetes
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 536:7614, s. 41-47
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The genetic architecture of common traits, including the number, frequency, and effect sizes of inherited variants that contribute to individual risk, has been long debated. Genome-wide association studies have identified scores of common variants associated with type 2 diabetes, but in aggregate, these explain only a fraction of the heritability of this disease. Here, to test the hypothesis that lower-frequency variants explain much of the remainder, the GoT2D and T2D-GENES consortia performed whole-genome sequencing in 2,657 European individuals with and without diabetes, and exome sequencing in 12,940 individuals from five ancestry groups. To increase statistical power, we expanded the sample size via genotyping and imputation in a further 111,548 subjects. Variants associated with type 2 diabetes after sequencing were overwhelmingly common and most fell within regions previously identified by genome-wide association studies. Comprehensive enumeration of sequence variation is necessary to identify functional alleles that provide important clues to disease pathophysiology, but large-scale sequencing does not support the idea that lower-frequency variants have a major role in predisposition to type 2 diabetes.
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| 10. |
- Giraldez, Roberto R., et al.
(författare)
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Prevalence and clinical outcomes of undiagnosed diabetes mellitus and prediabetes among patients with high-risk non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome
- 2013
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Ingår i: American Heart Journal. - : Elsevier BV. - 0002-8703 .- 1097-6744. ; 165:6, s. 918-925.e2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background We examined the prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes or prediabetes and associations with ischemic outcomes among non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients. Methods We categorized 8795 EARLY ACS trial patients into one of the following groups: "known diabetes" (n = 2860 [32.5%]; reported on the case report form), "undiagnosed diabetes" (n = 1069 [12.2%]; no diabetes history and fasting glucose >= 126 mg/dL or hemoglobin A(1c) >= 6.5%), "prediabetes" (n = 947 [10.8%]; fasting glucose >= 110 to <126 mg/dL, or " normal" (n = 3919 [44.5%]). Adjusted associations of known diabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and prediabetes (versus normal) with 30-day and 1-year outcomes were determined. Results Undiagnosed diabetes was associated with greater 30-day death or myocardial infarction (MI) (ORadj 1.28, 95% CI 1.05-1.57), driven primarily by greater 30-day mortality (ORadj 1.65, 95% CI 1.09-2.48). Known diabetic patients had 30-day death or MI outcomes similar to those of normal patients, but 30-day mortality was higher (ORadj 1.40, 95% CI 1.01-1.93). Prediabetic patients had 30-day death or MI outcomes similar to those of normal patients. One-year mortality was greater among known diabetic patients (HRadj 1.38, 95% CI 1.13-1.67) but not among those with undiagnosed diabetes or prediabetes. Conclusions Undiagnosed diabetes and prediabetes were common among high-risk non-ST-segment elevation ACS patients. Routine screening for undiagnosed diabetes may be useful since these patients seem to have worse short-term outcomes and deserve consideration of alternative management strategies.
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| 11. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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| 12. |
- Gurbel, Paul A., et al.
(författare)
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Platelet Function During Extended Prasugrel and Clopidogrel Therapy for Patients With ACS Treated Without Revascularization The TRILOGY ACS Platelet Function Substudy
- 2012
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Ingår i: JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 1538-3598. ; 308:17, s. 1785-1794
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context The relationship of platelet function testing measurements with outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) initially managed medically without revascularization is unknown. Objective To characterize the differences and evaluate clinical outcomes associated with platelet reactivity among patients with ACS treated with clopidogrel or prasugrel. Design, Setting, and Patients Patients with medically managed unstable angina or non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction were enrolled in the TRILOGY ACS trial (2008 to 2011) comparing clopidogrel vs prasugrel. Of 9326 participants, 27.5% were included in a platelet function substudy: 1286 treated with prasugrel and 1278 treated with clopidogrel. Interventions Aspirin with either prasugrel (10 or 5 mg/d) or clopidogrel (75 mg/d); those 75 years or older and younger than 75 years but who weighed less than 60 kg received a 5-mg prasugrel maintenance dose. Main Outcome Measures Platelet reactivity, measured in P2Y(12) reaction units (PRUs), was performed at baseline, at 2 hours, and at 1, 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 30 months after randomization. The primary efficacy end point was a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke through 30 months. Results Among participants younger than 75 years and weighing 60 kg or more, the median PRU values at 30 days were 64 (interquartile range [IQR], 33-128) in the prasugrel group vs 200 (IQR, 141-260) in the clopidogrel group (P<.001), a difference that persisted through all subsequent time points. For participants younger than 75 years and weighing less than 60 kg, the median 30-day PRU values were 139 (IQR, 86-203) for the prasugrel group vs 209 (IQR, 148-283) for the clopidogrel group (P<.001), and for participants 75 years or older, the median PRU values were 164 (IQR, 105-216) for the prasugrel group vs 222 (IQR, 148-268) for the clopidogrel group (P<.001). At 30 months the rate of the primary efficacy end point was 17.2% (160 events) in the prasugrel group vs 18.9% (180 events) in the clopidogrel group (P=.29). There were no significant differences in the continuous distributions of 30-day PRU values for participants with a primary efficacy end point event after 30 days (n=214) compared with participants without an event (n=1794; P=.07) and no significant relationship between the occurence of the primary efficacy end point and continuous PRU values (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] for increase of 60 PRUs, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.96-1.11; P=.44). Similar findings were observed with 30-day PRU cut points used to define high on-treatment platelet reactivity-PRU more than 208 (adjusted HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.89-1.52, P=.28) and PRU more than 230 (adjusted HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.90-1.61; P=.21). Conclusions Among patients with ACS without ST-segment elevation and initially managed without revascularization, prasugrel was associated with lower platelet reactivity than clopidogrel, irrespective of age, weight, and dose. Among those in the platelet substudy, no significant differences existed between prasugrel vs clopidogrel in the occurence of the primary efficacy end point through 30 months and no significant association existed between platelet reactivity and occurrence of ischemic outcomes.
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| 13. |
- Hagström, Emil, et al.
(författare)
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Association Between Very Low Levels of High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Long-term Outcomes of Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome Treated Without Revascularization : Insights From the TRILOGY ACS Trial
- 2016
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Ingår i: Clinical Cardiology. - : Wiley. - 0160-9289 .- 1932-8737. ; 39:6, s. 329-337
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Low levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C; < 40 mg/dL) are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events, but it is unclear whether lower thresholds (< 30 mg/dL) are associated with increased hazard.Hypothesis: Very low levels of HDL-C may provide prognostic information in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients treated medically without revascularization.Methods: We examined data from 9064/9326 ACS patients enrolled in the TRILOGY ACS trial. Participants were randomized to clopidogrel or prasugrel plus aspirin. Study treatments continued for 6 to 30 months. Relationships between baseline HDL-C and the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction (MI), or stroke, and individual endpoints of death (cardiovascular and all-cause), MI, and stroke, adjusted for baseline characteristics through 30 months, were analyzed. The HDL-C was evaluated as a dichotomous variable-very low (< 30 mg/dL) vs higher (>= 30 mg/dL)-and continuously.Results: Median baseline HDL-C was 42mg/dL (interquartile range, 34-49mg/dL) with little variation over time. Frequency of the composite endpoint was similar for very low vs higher baseline HDL-C, with no risk difference between groups (hazard ratio [ HR]: 1.13, 95% confidence interval [ CI]: 0.95-1.34). Similar findings were seen for MI and stroke. However, risks for cardiovascular (HR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.13-1.78) and all-cause death (HR: 1.36, 95% CI: 1.11-1.67) were higher in patients with very low baseline HDL-C.Conclusions: Medically managed ACS patients with very low baseline HDL-C levels have higher risk of long-term cardiovascular and all-cause death but similar risks for nonfatal ischemic outcomes vs patients with higher baseline HDL-C.
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| 14. |
- Huffman, Mark D, et al.
(författare)
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A cross-sectional study of the microeconomic impact of cardiovascular disease hospitalization in four low- and middle-income countries.
- 2011
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 6:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To estimate individual and household economic impact of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in selected low- and middle-income countries (LMIC).BACKGROUND: Empirical evidence on the microeconomic consequences of CVD in LMIC is scarce.METHODS AND FINDINGS: We surveyed 1,657 recently hospitalized CVD patients (66% male; mean age 55.8 years) from Argentina, China, India, and Tanzania to evaluate the microeconomic and functional/productivity impact of CVD hospitalization. Respondents were stratified into three income groups. Median out-of-pocket expenditures for CVD treatment over 15 month follow-up ranged from 354 international dollars (2007 INT$, Tanzania, low-income) to INT$2,917 (India, high-income). Catastrophic health spending (CHS) was present in >50% of respondents in China, India, and Tanzania. Distress financing (DF) and lost income were more common in low-income respondents. After adjustment, lack of health insurance was associated with CHS in Argentina (OR 4.73 [2.56, 8.76], India (OR 3.93 [2.23, 6.90], and Tanzania (OR 3.68 [1.86, 7.26] with a marginal association in China (OR 2.05 [0.82, 5.11]). These economic effects were accompanied by substantial decreases in individual functional health and productivity.CONCLUSIONS: Individuals in selected LMIC bear significant financial burdens following CVD hospitalization, yet with substantial variation across and within countries. Lack of insurance may drive much of the financial stress of CVD in LMIC patients and their families.
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| 15. |
- Lin, Queran, et al.
(författare)
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Hypertension in stroke survivors and associations with national premature stroke mortality : data for 2·5 million participants from multinational screening campaigns
- 2022
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Ingår i: The Lancet Global Health. - 2214-109X. ; 10:8, s. 1141-1149
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Blood pressure control has a pivotal role in reducing the incidence and recurrence of stroke. May Measurement Month (MMM), which was initiated in 2017 by the International Society of Hypertension, is the largest global blood pressure screening campaign. We aim to compare MMM participants with and without a previous history of stroke and to investigate associations between national-level estimates of blood pressure management from MMM and premature stroke mortality. Methods: In this annual, global, cross-sectional survey, more than 2·5 million volunteers (≥18 years) from 92 countries were screened in May, 2017, and May, 2018. Three seated blood pressure readings and demographic, lifestyle, and cardiovascular disease data were collected. Associations between risk factors and stroke history were analysed with mixed-effects logistic regression, and associations between national-level estimates of blood pressure management and premature stroke mortality based on Global Burden of Disease data were investigated with linear regression. Findings: 2 222 399 (88·4%) of 2 515 365 participants had recorded data on a history of stroke, of whom 62 639 (2·8%) reported a previous stroke. Participants with a history of stroke had higher rates of hypertension (77·0% vs 32·9%, p<0·0001) and of treated (90·2% vs 57·0%, p<0·0001) and controlled (55·9% vs 32·4%, p<0·0001) hypertension than those without a history of stroke. A third of participants with a history of stroke had either untreated hypertension or treated but uncontrolled hypertension (blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg). Strong positive associations were found between national premature stroke mortality and mean systolic blood pressure (84·3 [95% CI 38·8 to 129·9] years of life lost [YLL] per 100 000 people per mm Hg increase) and the percentage of participants with raised blood pressure (49·1 [22·6 to 75·6] YLL per 100 000 people per 1% increase). Strong negative associations were found between national premature stroke mortality and the percentage of participants with hypertension on treatment (−21·0 [−33·0 to −8·9] YLL per 100 000 people per 1% increase) and with controlled blood pressure (−31·6 [−43·8 to −19·4] YLL per 100 000 people per 1% increase). Interpretation: Blood pressure control remains suboptimal worldwide among people with a history of stroke. National estimates of blood pressure management reflect national premature stroke mortality sufficiently to prompt policy makers to promote blood pressure screening and management. Funding: International Society of Hypertension and Servier Pharmaceuticals.
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| 16. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 17. |
- Manning, Alisa, et al.
(författare)
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A Low-Frequency Inactivating AKT2 Variant Enriched in the Finnish Population Is Associated With Fasting Insulin Levels and Type 2 Diabetes Risk
- 2017
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Ingår i: Diabetes. - : AMER DIABETES ASSOC. - 0012-1797 .- 1939-327X. ; 66:7, s. 2019-2032
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To identify novel coding association signals and facilitate characterization of mechanisms influencing glycemic traits and type 2 diabetes risk, we analyzed 109,215 variants derived from exome array genotyping together with an additional 390,225 variants from exome sequence in up to 39,339 normoglycemic individuals from five ancestry groups. We identified a novel association between the coding variant (p.Pro50Thr) in AKT2 and fasting plasma insulin (FI), a gene in which rare fully penetrant mutations are causal for monogenic glycemic disorders. The low-frequency allele is associated with a 12% increase in FI levels. This variant is present at 1.1% frequency in Finns but virtually absent in individuals from other ancestries. Carriers of the FI-increasing allele had increased 2-h insulin values, decreased insulin sensitivity, and increased risk of type 2 diabetes (odds ratio 1.05). In cellular studies, the AKT2-Thr50 protein exhibited a partial loss of function. We extend the allelic spectrum for coding variants in AKT2 associated with disorders of glucose homeostasis and demonstrate bidirectional effects of variants within the pleckstrin homology domain of AKT2.
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| 18. |
- Morales Salinas, Alberto, et al.
(författare)
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Clinical Perspective on Antihypertensive Drug Treatment in Adults With Grade 1 Hypertension and Low-to-Moderate Cardiovascular Risk : An International Expert Consultation
- 2017
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Ingår i: Current problems in cardiology. - : Elsevier. - 0146-2806 .- 1535-6280. ; 42:7, s. 198-225
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Hypertension is a leading risk factor for disease burden globally. An unresolved question is whether grade 1 hypertension (140-159/90-99 mm Hg) with low (cardiovascular mortality < 1% at 10 years) to moderate (cardiovascular mortality ≥ 1% and <5% at 10 years) absolute total cardiovascular risk (CVR) should be treated with antihypertensive agents. A virtual international consultation process was undertaken to summarize the opinions of select experts. After holistic analysis of all epidemiological, clinical, psychosocial, and public health elements, this consultation process reached the following consensus in hypertensive adults aged < 80 years: (1) The question of whether drug treatment in grade 1 should be preceded by a period of some weeks or months during which only lifestyle measures are recommended cannot be evidence based, but the consensus opinion is to have a period of lifestyle alone reserved only to patients with grade 1 "isolated" hypertension (grade 1 uncomplicated hypertension with low absolute total CVR, and without other major CVR factors and risk modifiers). (2) The initiation of antihypertensive drug therapy in grade 1 hypertension with moderate absolute total CVR should not be delayed. (3) Men ≥ 55 years and women ≥ 60 years with uncomplicated grade 1 hypertension should automatically be classified within the moderate absolute total CVR category, even in the absence of other major CVR factors and risk modifiers. (4) Statins should be considered along with blood-pressure lowering therapy, irrespective of cholesterol levels, in patients with grade 1 hypertensive with moderate CVR.
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| 19. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 20. |
- O'Callaghan-Gordo, Cristina, et al.
(författare)
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Prevalence of and risk factors for chronic kidney disease of unknown aetiology in India : Secondary data analysis of three population-based cross-sectional studies
- 2019
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 9:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives To assess whether chronic kidney disease of unknown aetiology (CKDu) is present in India and to identify risk factors for it using population-based data and standardised methods. Design Secondary data analysis of three population-based cross-sectional studies conducted between 2010 and 2014. Setting Urban and rural areas of Northern India (states of Delhi and Haryana) and Southern India (states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh). Participants 12 500 individuals without diabetes, hypertension or heavy proteinuria. Outcome measures Mean estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and prevalence of eGFR below 60 mL/min per 1.73 m 2 (eGFR <60) in individuals without diabetes, hypertension or heavy proteinuria (proxy definition of CKDu). Results The mean eGFR was 105.0±17.8 mL/min per 1.73 m 2. The prevalence of eGFR <60 was 1.6% (95% CI=1.4 to 1.7), but this figure varied markedly between areas, being highest in rural areas of Southern Indian (4.8% (3.8 to 5.8)). In Northern India, older age was the only risk factor associated with lower mean eGFR and eGFR <60 (regression coefficient (95% CI)=a '0.94 (0.97 to 0.91); OR (95% CI)=1.10 (1.08 to 1.11)). In Southern India, risk factors for lower mean eGFR and eGFR <60, respectively, were residence in a rural area (a '7.78 (-8.69 to -6.86); 4.95 (2.61 to 9.39)), older age (a '0.90 (-0.93 to -0.86); 1.06 (1.04 to 1.08)) and less education (a '0.94 (-1.32 to -0.56); 0.67 (0.50 to 0.90) for each 5 years at school). Conclusions CKDu is present in India and is not confined to Central America and Sri Lanka. Identified risk factors are consistent with risk factors previously reported for CKDu in Central America and Sri Lanka.
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| 21. |
- Poulter, Neil R., et al.
(författare)
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May Measurement Month : results of 12 national blood pressure screening programmes between 2017 and 2019
- 2022
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal, Supplement. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1520-765X .- 1554-2815. ; 24:Sf, s. 1-5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The frst May Measurement Month (MMM) campaign, a global blood pressure (BP) screening programme, began in 2017 as an initiative of the International Society of Hypertension.1 Two subsequent annual campaigns have also been completed in consecutive years2,3 and having had to defer activities due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 the fourth campaign was run in 2021, the results of which are currently in press. Since its initiation in 2017, volunteers from more than 100 countries have participated. The aims of MMM have remained consistent from the start-to raise awareness of the importance of the measurement of BP at the individual and population level and to provide a temporary pragmatic solution to the shortfall in BP screening programmes in countries around the world.
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| 22. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 23. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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| 24. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2014
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9947, s. 957-979
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
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| 25. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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