| 1. |
|
|
| 2. |
- Ahmed, Ali, et al.
(författare)
-
Choices at various levels of uncertainty: An experimental test of the restated diversification theorem
- 2006
-
Ingår i: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. - : Springer. - 0895-5646 .- 1573-0476. ; 33:3, s. 183-196
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Our ``Restated diversification theorem'' (Skogh and Wu, 2005) says that risk-averse agents may pool risks efficiently without assignment of subjective probabilities to outcomes, also at genuine uncertainty. It suffices that the agents presume that they face equal risks. Here, the theorem is tested in an experiment where the probability of loss, and the information about this probability, varies. The result supports our theorem. Moreover, it tentatively supports an evolutionary theory of the insurance industry--starting with mutual pooling at uncertainty, turning into insurance priced ex ante when actuarial information is available.
|
|
| 3. |
- Andersen, Steffen, et al.
(författare)
-
Estimating subjective probabilities
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. - : Springer. - 0895-5646 .- 1573-0476. ; 48:3, s. 207-229
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Subjective probabilities play a central role in many economic decisions and act as an immediate confound of inferences about behavior, unless controlled for. Several procedures to recover subjective probabilities have been proposed, but in order to recover the correct latent probability one must either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake "calibrating adjustments" to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still employing relatively simple elicitation mechanisms.
|
|
| 4. |
|
|
| 5. |
|
|
| 6. |
- Andersson, Ola, et al.
(författare)
-
Robust inference in risk elicitation tasks
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. - : Springer Nature. - 0895-5646 .- 1573-0476. ; 61:3, s. 195-209
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent experimental evidence suggests that noisy behavior correlates strongly with personal characteristics. Since decision noise leads to bias in most elicitation tasks, there is a risk of falsely interpreting noise-driven relationships as preference driven. This puts previous studies that found a negative relation between personality measures and risk aversion into perspective and in particular raises the question of how to achieve robust inference in this domain. This paper shows, by way of an economic experiment with subjects from all walks of life, that using structural estimation to model heterogeneity of noise in combination with a balanced design allows us to mitigate the bias problem. Our estimations show that cognitive ability is related to noisy behavior rather than risk preferences. We also find age and education to be strongly related to noise, but the personality characteristics obtained using the Big Five inventory are less related to noise and more robustly correlated to risk preferences.
|
|
| 7. |
- Bleichrodt, Han, et al.
(författare)
-
Characterizing QALYs by Risk Neutrality
- 1997
-
Ingår i: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. - : Springer. - 1573-0476 .- 0895-5646. ; 15:2, s. 107-114
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper shows that QALYs can be derived from more elementary conditions than thought hitherto in the literature: it suffices to impose risk neutrality for life years in every health state. This derivation of QALYs is appealing because it does not require knowledge of concepts from utility theory such as utility independence. Therefore our axiomatization greatly facilitates the assessment of the normative (non)validity of QALYs in medical decision making. Moreover, risk neutrality can easily be tested in experimental designs, which makes it straightforward to assess the descriptive (non)validity of QALYs. Copyright 1997 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
|
|
| 8. |
- Carlsson, Fredrik, 1968, et al.
(författare)
-
Do administrators have the same priorities for risk reductions as the general public?
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0895-5646 .- 1573-0476. ; 45:1, s. 79-95
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A stated preference survey was used to investigate the potential discrepancy between the priorities of public administrators and the general public regarding risk reductions. Both groups of respondents were asked to assume the role of a public policy-maker and choose between different public safety projects. We investigate differences in three areas: (i) large vs. small accidents, (ii) actual vs. subjective risk, and (iii) the trade-off between avoiding fatalities and serious injuries for different age groups and accidents. We find only minor differences between the responses of administrators and the general public, the most important of which is the difference in priorities between reducing the risk of many small or one large accident. In this area the most common response from the general public is that they prefer avoiding many small accidents rather than one large accident while among the administrators there is almost an equal split between the two options.
|
|
| 9. |
- Galliera, Arianna, et al.
(författare)
-
Crowded out : Heterogeneity in risk attitudes among poor households in the US
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. - : Springer. - 0895-5646 .- 1573-0476. ; 63:2, s. 103-132
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Not much is known about the heterogeneity of risk attitudes among poor households in rich countries. This paper provides estimates from a unique data set collected among the urban poor in Atlanta, Georgia. The data set includes lab-in-the-field experiments on the relationship between risk attitudes and several household characteristics. Apart from looking at income, wealth, and education, we are particularly interested in household composition as it captures the number and kind of people who are dependant on the income of the household head. Heads of households who are less risk averse may be willing to take on the extra risk from smaller resource margins resulting from additional dependants, implying a negative relationship between household size and risk aversion. However, if the size of the household is a result of exogenous forces some heads of households may become more risk averse with more dependants. Household size can also reflect a risk management choice that involves adding non-dependant members who can provide resources and risk sharing. However, this possibility is limited to homes that are not already too crowded. We find that household size correlates positively with the risk aversion of the head, but with a large proportion of children the correlation is strongly dampened. However, this negative effect of children is conditional on the home not already being crowded. These heterogeneous findings have implications for the design of new insurance, savings, and credit programs where risk attitudes are important to the decisions to adopt.
|
|
| 10. |
- Gerdtham, Ulf, et al.
(författare)
-
Do life-saving regulations save lives ?
- 2002
-
Ingår i: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. - : Springer Nature. - 1573-0476 .- 0895-5646. ; 24:3, s. 231-249
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Life-saving regulations may be counter-productive since they have an indirect mortality effect through the reduction in disposable income. This paper estimates the effect of income on mortality, controlling for the initial health status and a host of personal characteristics. The analysis is based on a random sample of the adult Swedish population of over 40,000 individuals followed up for 10-17 years. The income loss that will induce an expected fatality is estimated to be $6.8 million when the costs are borne equally among all adults, $8.4 million when the costs are borne proportionally to income and $9.8 million when the costs are borne progressively to income.
|
|
