| 1. |
- Balleer, Almut
(författare)
-
New Evidence, Old Puzzles : Technology Shocks and Labor Market Dynamics
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Quantitative Economics. - 1759-7323 .- 1759-7331. ; 3:3, s. 363-392
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Can the standard search-and-matching labor market model replicate the business cycle fluctuations of the job finding rate and the unemployment rate? In the model, these fluctuations are driven by movements in productivity. This paper investigates the sources of productivity fluctuations that are commonly interpreted as technology shocks. I estimate different types of technology shocks from structural vector autoregressions and reassess the empirical performance of the standard model based on second moments that are conditional on technology and nontechnology (preference) shocks. Most prominently, the model is able to replicate the conditional volatilities of job finding and unemployment. However, it fails to replicate the correlation of productivity with unemployment and job finding that is conditional on both technology and nontechnology shocks.
|
|
| 2. |
- Broer, Tobias, et al.
(författare)
-
Fiscal multipliers : A heterogenous-agent perspective
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Quantitative Economics. - : The Econometric Society. - 1759-7323 .- 1759-7331. ; 14:3, s. 799-816
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We use an analytically tractable heterogeneous-agent (HANK) version of the standard New Keynesian model to show how the size of fiscal multipliers depends on (i) the distribution of factor incomes, and (ii) the source of nominal rigidities. With sticky prices but flexible wages, the standard representative-agent (RANK) model predicts large multipliers because profits fall after a fiscal stimulus and the resulting negative income effect makes the representative worker work harder. Our HANK model, where workers do not own stock, and thus do not receive profit income, predicts smaller fiscal multipliers. In fact, they are smaller with sticky prices than with flexible prices. When wages are the source of nominal rigidity, in contrast, fiscal multipliers are close to one, independently of income heterogeneity and price stickiness.
|
|
| 3. |
- Dzemski, Andreas, et al.
(författare)
-
Confidence set for group membership
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Quantitative Economics. - 1759-7323 .- 1759-7331. ; 15:2, s. 245-277
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Our confidence set quantifies the statistical uncertainty from data-driven group assignments in grouped panel models. It covers the true group memberships jointly for all units with pre-specified probability and is constructed by inverting many simultaneous unit-specific one-sided tests for group membership. We justify our approach under N,T → ∞ asymptotics using tools from high-dimensional statistics, some of which we extend in this paper. We provide Monte Carlo evidence that the confidence set has adequate coverage in finite samples. An empirical application illustrates the use of our confidence set.
|
|
| 4. |
- Fernandez-Val, Ivan, et al.
(författare)
-
Selection and the distribution of female real hourly wages in the United States
- 2023
-
Ingår i: QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS. - 1759-7323 .- 1759-7331. ; 14:2, s. 571-607
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We analyze the role of selection bias in generating changes in the observed distribution of female hourly wages in the United States using CPS data for the years 1975 to 2020. We account for selection bias from the employment decision by modeling the distribution of the number of working hours and estimating a nonseparable model of wages. We decompose changes in the wage distribution into composition, structural, and selection effects. Composition effects increased wages at all quantiles while the impact of the structural effects varied by time period and quantile. Changes in the role of selection only appeared at the lower quantiles of the wage distribution. The evidence suggests that there was positive selection in the 1970s, which diminished until the later 1990s. This reduced wages at lower quantiles and increased wage inequality. Post 2000 there appears to be an increase in positive sorting, which reduced the selection effects on wage inequality.
|
|
| 5. |
- Friedrich, Benjamin, et al.
(författare)
-
Earnings dynamics of immigrants and natives in Sweden 1985-2016
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Quantitative Economics. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1759-7323 .- 1759-7331. ; 13:4, s. 1803-1847
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper analyzes earnings inequality and earnings dynamics in Sweden over 1985-2016. The deep recession in the early 1990s marks a historic turning point with a massive increase in earnings inequality and earnings volatility, and the impact of the recession and the recovery from it lasted for decades. In the aftermath of the recession, we find steady growth in real earnings across the entire distribution for men and women and decreasing inequality over more than 20 years. Despite the positive trend, large gender differences in earnings dynamics persist. While earnings growth for men is more closely tied to the business cycle, women face much higher volatility overall. Earnings volatility is also substantially higher among foreign-born workers, reflecting weaker labor market attachment and high risk of large negative shocks for low-income immigrants. We document an important role of social benefits usage for the overall trends and for differences across subpopulations. Higher benefits enrollment, especially for women and immigrants, is associated with higher earnings volatility. As the generosity and usage of benefit programs declined over time, we find stronger earnings growth among low-income workers, consistent with higher self-sufficiency.
|
|
| 6. |
- Hyytinen, Ari, et al.
(författare)
-
When does regression discontinuity design work? Evidence from random election outcomes
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Quantitative Economics. - 1759-7323 .- 1759-7331. ; 9:2, s. 1019-1051
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We use elections data in which a large number of ties in vote counts between candidates are resolved via a lottery to study the personal incumbency advantage. We benchmark non-experimental regression discontinuity design (RDD) estimates against the estimate produced by this experiment that takes place exactly at the cutoff. The experimental estimate suggests that there is no personal incumbency advantage. In contrast, conventional local polynomial RDD estimates suggest a moderate and statistically significant effect. Bias-corrected RDD estimates that apply robust inference are, however, in line with the experimental estimate. Therefore, state-of-the-art implementation of RDD can meet the replication standard in the context of close elections.
|
|
| 7. |
|
|
| 8. |
- Van den Berg, Gerhard J., et al.
(författare)
-
Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Quantitative Economics. - : WILEY. - 1759-7323 .- 1759-7331. ; 11:3, s. 871-916
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Causal effects of a policy change on hazard rates of a duration outcome variable are not identified from a comparison of spells before and after the policy change if there is unobserved heterogeneity in the effects and no model structure is imposed. We develop a discontinuity approach that overcomes this by considering spells that include the moment of the policy change and by exploiting variation in the moment at which different cohorts are exposed to the policy change. We prove identification of average treatment effects on hazard rates without model structure. We estimate these effects by kernel hazard regression. We use the introduction of the NDYP program for young unemployed individuals in the UK to estimate average program participation effects on the exit rate to work as well as anticipation effects.
|
|
