| 1. |
- Fischer, Hubertus, et al.
(författare)
-
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 11:7, s. 474-485
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 °C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1–2 °C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise.
|
|
| 2. |
|
|
| 3. |
- Fischer, Hubertus, et al.
(författare)
-
Reconstruction of millennial changes in dust emission, transport and regional sea ice coverage using the deep EPICA ice cores from the Atlantic and Indian Ocean sector of Antarctica
- 2007
-
Ingår i: Earth and Planetary Science Letters. - : Elsevier BV. - 0012-821X. ; 260, s. 340-354
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Continuous sea salt and mineral dust aerosol records have been studied on the two EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring inAntarctica) deep ice cores. The joint use of these records from opposite sides of the East Antarctic plateau allows for an estimate ofchanges in dust transport and emission intensity as well as for the identification of regional differences in the sea salt aerosolsource. The mineral dust flux records at both sites show a strong coherency over the last 150 kyr related to dust emission changes inthe glacial Patagonian dust source with three times higher dust fluxes in the Atlantic compared to the Indian Ocean sector of theSouthern Ocean (SO). Using a simple conceptual transport model this indicates that transport can explain only 40% of theatmospheric dust concentration changes in Antarctica, while factor 5–10 changes occurred. Accordingly, the main cause for the strong glacial dust flux changes in Antarctica must lie in environmental changes in Patagonia. Dust emissions, hence environmentalconditions in Patagonia, were very similar during the last two glacials and interglacials, respectively, despite 2–4 °C warmertemperatures recorded in Antarctica during the penultimate interglacial than today. 2–3 times higher sea salt fluxes found in bothice cores in the glacial compared to the Holocene are difficult to reconcile with a largely unchanged transport intensity and thedistant open ocean source. The substantial glacial enhancements in sea salt aerosol fluxes can be readily explained assuming sea iceformation as the main sea salt aerosol source with a significantly larger expansion of (summer) sea ice in the Weddell Sea than inthe Indian Ocean sector. During the penultimate interglacial, our sea salt records point to a 50% reduction of winter sea icecoverage compared to the Holocene both in the Indian and Atlantic Ocean sector of the SO. However, from 20 to 80 ka beforepresent sea salt fluxes show only very subdued millennial changes despite pronounced temperature fluctuations, likely due to thelarge distance of the sea ice salt source to our drill sites.
|
|
| 4. |
- Kaufmann, Patrik, et al.
(författare)
-
Ammonium and non-sea salt sulfate in the EPICA ice cores as indicator of biological activity in the Southern Ocean
- 2010
-
Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 29:02-jan, s. 313-323
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sulfate (SO42-) and ammonium (NH4+) flux records over the last 150,000 years from both Antarctic EPICA ice cores (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) are presented. The ice core record from Dome C is influenced by the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean (SO), whereas Dronning Maud Land is facing the Atlantic sector. Generally, they reflect the past atmospheric aerosol load and, thus, potentially reveal the fingerprint of marine biogenic sources from the SO. The most important feature of both, the nssSO(4)(2-) as well as NH4+ flux records, is the absence of any significant glacial cycles, in contrary to the distinct transitions for mineral dust and sea salt aerosol over the last 150,000 years. This finding challenges the iron fertilization hypothesis on long time scales, as the significant changes in dust, e.g. from the last glacial maximum toward the Holocene have neither an impact on nssSO(4)(2-) nor on NH4+ fluxes found in interior Antarctica. The inter-site correlation of both species is weak, r(2) = 0.42 for the nssSO(4)(2-) flux and r(2) = 0.12 for the NH4+ flux respectively, emphasizing the local Source characteristics of biogenic aerosol from the SO. Millennial variability in NH4+ and nssSO(4)(2-) is within the uncertainty of our flux estimates. Correlation with mineral dust and sea ice derived sodium shows only a very weak influence of dust deposition on those insignificant changes in nssSO(4)(2-) flux for the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, but also small transport changes or terrigeneous sulfate contributions may contribute to those variations at EDML.
|
|
| 5. |
- Petäjä, Tuukka, et al.
(författare)
-
Overview : Integrative and Comprehensive Understanding on Polar Environments (iCUPE) - concept and initial results
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 20:14, s. 8551-8592
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The role of polar regions is increasing in terms of megatrends such as globalization, new transport routes, demography, and the use of natural resources with consequent effects on regional and transported pollutant concentrations. We set up the ERA-PLANET Strand 4 project iCUPE - integrative and Comprehensive Understanding on Polar Environments to provide novel insights and observational data on global grand challenges with an Arctic focus. We utilize an integrated approach combining in situ observations, satellite remote sensing Earth observations (EOs), and multi-scale modeling to synthesize data from comprehensive long-term measurements, intensive campaigns, and satellites to deliver data products, metrics, and indicators to stakeholders concerning the environmental status, availability, and extraction of natural resources in the polar areas. The iCUPE work consists of thematic state-of-the-art research and the provision of novel data in atmospheric pollution, local sources and transboundary transport, the characterization of arctic surfaces and their changes, an assessment of the concentrations and impacts of heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants and their cycling, the quantification of emissions from natural resource extraction, and the validation and optimization of satellite Earth observation (EO) data streams. In this paper we introduce the iCUPE project and summarize initial results arising out of the integration of comprehensive in situ observations, satellite remote sensing, and multi-scale modeling in the Arctic context.
|
|
| 6. |
|
|
| 7. |
|
|
| 8. |
|
|
