| 1. |
- Tran, K. B., et al.
(author)
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The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
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In: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 400:10352, s. 563-591
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 4. |
- Munk, P., et al.
(author)
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Genomic analysis of sewage from 101 countries reveals global landscape of antimicrobial resistance
- 2022
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In: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 13:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a major threat to global health. Understanding the emergence, evolution, and transmission of individual antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) is essential to develop sustainable strategies combatting this threat. Here, we use metagenomic sequencing to analyse ARGs in 757 sewage samples from 243 cities in 101 countries, collected from 2016 to 2019. We find regional patterns in resistomes, and these differ between subsets corresponding to drug classes and are partly driven by taxonomic variation. The genetic environments of 49 common ARGs are highly diverse, with most common ARGs carried by multiple distinct genomic contexts globally and sometimes on plasmids. Analysis of flanking sequence revealed ARG-specific patterns of dispersal limitation and global transmission. Our data furthermore suggest certain geographies are more prone to transmission events and should receive additional attention.
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| 5. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 7. |
- Akhtar, M., et al.
(author)
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Evaluation of the safety and immunogenicity of the oral inactivated multivalent enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli vaccine ETVAX in Bangladeshi adults in a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled Phase I trial using electrochemiluminescence and ELISA assays for immunogenicity analyses
- 2019
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In: Vaccine. - : Elsevier BV. - 0264-410X. ; 37:37, s. 5645-5656
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The safety and immunogenicity of the second generation oral enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) vaccine ETVAX, consisting of inactivated recombinant E. coli strains over-expressing the colonization factors (CFs) CFA/I, CS3, CS5 and CS6 and the heat labile toxoid LCTBA, were evaluated in Bangladeshi volunteers. To enable analysis of antibody responses against multiple vaccine antigens for subsequent use in small sample volumes from children, a sensitive electrochemiluminescence (ECL) assay for analysis of intestine-derived antibody-secreting cell responses using the antibodies in lymphocyte secretions (ALS) assay was established using Meso Scale Discovery technology. Three groups of Bangladeshi adults (n = 15 per group) received two oral doses of ETVAX with or without double mutant LT (dmLT) adjuvant or placebo in the initial part of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, age-descending, dose-escalation trial. CF- and LTB-specific ALS and plasma IgA responses were analyzed by ECL and/or ELISA. ETVAX was safe and well tolerated in the adults. Magnitudes of IgA ALS responses determined by ECL and ELISA correlated well (r = 0.85 to 0.98 for the five primary antigens, P < 0.001) and ECL was selected as the ALS readout method. ALS IgA responses against each of the primary antigens were detected in 87-100% of vaccinees after the first and in 100% after the second vaccine dose. Plasma IgA responses against different CFs and LTB were observed in 62-93% and 100% of vaccinees, respectively. No statistically significant adjuvant effect of dmLT on antibody responses to any antigen was detected, but the overall anti-genic breadth of the plasma IgA response tended to favor the adjuvanted vaccine when responses to 4 or more or 5 vaccine antigens were considered. Responses in placebo recipients were infrequent and mainly detected against single antigens. The promising results in adults supported testing ETVAX in descending age groups of children.
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| 8. |
- Begum, Y. A., et al.
(author)
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Shift in Phenotypic Characteristics of Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) Isolated from Diarrheal Patients in Bangladesh
- 2014
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In: Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1935-2735. ; 8:7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) is one of the most common causes of bacterial diarrhea. Over the last decade, from 1996 to 2012, changes in the virulence antigen properties of ETEC such as heat labile (LT) and heat stable (ST) toxins, colonization factors (CFs), and 'O'-serogroups have been observed. The aim of this prospective study was to compare changes in antigenic profiles of ETEC strains isolated from a 2% surveillance system at the icddr,b hospital in Dhaka, Bangladesh between 2007-2012 and an earlier time period of 1996-1998 conducted at the same surveillance site. Methodology: In the surveillance system every 50th patient attending the hospital was screened for major enteric pathogens including ETEC, Vibrio cholerae, Shigella spp. and Salmonella spp. from January 2007 to December 2012. Principal Findings: Of the 15,152 diarrheal specimens tested between 2007-2012, the overall rate of ETEC isolation was 11%; of these, 43% were LT/ST, 27% LT and 30% ST positive. Isolation rate of ST-ETEC (p<0.009) and LT/ST ETEC (p<0.011) during 2007-2012 period differed significantly compared to those seen between 1996-1998. In comparison to the 19961998 period, difference in CF profile of ETEC isolates during 2007-2012 was observed particularly for strains expressing CS7 (12.4%), CS14 (9.5%) and CS17 (10.0%). The predominant CF types were CS5+CS6, CFA/I, CS7, CS17, CS1+CS3, CS6 and CS14. The most common serogroups among the CF positive ETEC isolates were O115, O114, O6, O25 and O8. A strong association was found between CFs and 'O' serogroups i.e. between CS5+CS6 and (O115 and O126); CS7 and (O114), CFA/I and (O78 and O126), CS17 and (O8 and O167) and CS1/CS2+CS3 and (O6). Conclusion: The analyses show a shift in prevalence of antigenic types of ETEC over the study period; the information is important in designing effective ETEC vaccines with broad protective coverage.
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| 10. |
- Hurter, C., et al.
(author)
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Usage of more transparent and explainable conflict resolution algorithm : Air traffic controller feedback
- 2022
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In: Transportation Research Procedia. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 2352-1457 .- 2352-1465. ; 66:C, s. 270-278
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Recently, Artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms have received increasable interest in various application domains including in Air Transportation Management (ATM). Different AI in particular Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are used to provide decision support in autonomous decision-making tasks in the ATM domain e.g., predicting air transportation traffic and optimizing traffic flows. However, most of the time these automated systems are not accepted or trusted by the intended users as the decisions provided by AI are often opaque, non-intuitive and not understandable by human operators. Safety is the major pillar to air traffic management, and no black box process can be inserted in a decision-making process when human life is involved. To address this challenge related to transparency of the automated system in the ATM domain, we investigated AI methods in predicting air transportation traffic conflict and optimizing traffic flows based on the domain of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI). Here, AI models’ explainability in terms of understanding a decision i.e., post hoc interpretability and understanding how the model works i.e., transparency can be provided for air traffic controllers. In this paper, we report our research directions and our findings to support better decision making with AI algorithms with extended transparency.
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