| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Beyene, Yared Bekele, et al.
(författare)
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On the design and optimization of distributed energy resources for sustainable grid-integrated microgrid in Ethiopia
- 2023
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Ingår i: International journal of hydrogen energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-3199 .- 1879-3487. ; 48:78, s. 30282-30298
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a study that focuses on alleviating the impacts of grid outages in Ethiopia. To deal with grid outages, most industrial customers utilize backup diesel generators (DG) which are environmentally unfriendly and economically not viable. Grid integration of hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES) might be a possible solution to enhance grid reliability and reduce environmental and economic impacts of utilizing DG. In this study, an optimization of grid integrated HRES is carried out for different dispatch and control strategies. The optimal power supply option is determined by performing comparative analysis of the different configurations of grid integrated HRES. The result of the study shows that grid integrated HRES consisting of photovoltaic and wind turbine as renewable energy sources, and battery and hydrogen as hybrid energy storage systems is found to be the optimal system to supply the load demand. From the hydrogen produced on-site, the FC generator and FCEVs consume 143 620 kg/yr of hydrogen which is equivalent to 394 955 kg/yr gasoline fuel consumption. This corresponds to saving 1 184 865 kg/yr of CO2 emissions and 605 703 $/yr revenue. Besides, this system yields 547 035.4 $/yr revenue by injecting excess electricity to the grid. The study clearly shows the economic and environmental viability of this new technology for implementation.& COPY; 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of Hydrogen Energy Publications LLC. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/).
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| 3. |
- Beyene, Yared Bekele, et al.
(författare)
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On Virtual Complex Impedance Droop Control of VSC-Based Islanded Microgrids
- 2023
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Ingår i: Proceedings of 2023 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Europe, ISGT EUROPE 2023. - : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper investigates the droop control techniques used to ascertain the proper sharing of active and reactive power of multiple VSCs in an islanded microgrid. The dynamic model of the system control loops is performed in a dq rotating reference frame. The droop control loop is analyzed, taking into account the inductive nature of the output impedance of the microgrid due to the inductor of the filter and coupling inductor. To minimize the circulating current that flows between parallel VSC, a virtual complex impedance loop is included in the proposed controller. In order to avoid the stability problem occurring at the resonant frequency of the LCL filter, a parallel resistor is added to the LCL filter capacitor. For both equal and proportional power-sharing strategies, the proposed controller can achieve accurate power-sharing with an excellent dynamic performance of the system. The simulation results are presented to reveal the accurate performance of the proposed controller.
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| 4. |
- Birru, Eyerusalem, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing the potential of energy saving in a traditional sugar canemill during steady state and transient conditions : part I: basecase plant model
- 2015
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Ingår i: Biomass Conversion and Biorefinery. - : Springer. - 2190-6823 .- 2190-6815.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sugar cane mills are energy intensive industries andalso have a large potential of providing surplus energy interms of heat or power. Identification of heat and mechanicallosses in sugar mills is one approach in indicating energysaving potential in sugar mills, especially in traditional mills.Such assessment of the energy flows in sugar mills needs to bedone both in steady state and transient conditions (where suddenstoppages occur). In this paper, such an approach is consideredwhere a base case plant is modeled for steady state andtransient state operations. For the transient state study, a typicalstoppage is chosen and three different scenarios aremodeled. Heat loss calculations are done for major cogenerationunits and for the amount accumulated of the surplus bagassewhen the steady state operation is estimated. The resultsof the models show that during steady state operation, thelosses related to mechanical prime movers is on the higherside as the mills and shredder are driven by steamand generatemechanical power higher than what is needed by the mills andthe shredder equipment themselves. In the transient statescenarios, where fuel oil is introduced during press mill stoppage,there is steam wasted (steam that could have been usedfor mechanical power generation) starting from the periodwhere the fuel oil is introduced until the power required duringthe stoppage is reached. The CO2 emission during the use offuel oil is also quite significant during the stoppage.
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| 5. |
- Birru, Eyerusalem, et al.
(författare)
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Upgrading of a traditional sugar cane mill to a modern milland assessing the potential of energy saving during steady stateand transient conditions : part II: models for a modifiedcogeneration unit
- 2016
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Ingår i: Biomass Conversion and Biorefinery. - : Springer. - 2190-6823 .- 2190-6815. ; 6:2, s. 233-245
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is known that there is a significant amount ofthermal energy used for the sugar cane industry for the purposeof power production and for use in the sugar or ethanolprocessing in cane sugar industries. Likewise, it is understoodthat there are substantial amounts of waste heat that is notbeing recovered, in particular for traditional sugar mills. Regardlessof this, energy conservation is given less considerationas compared to operational convenience due to the factthat sugar mills are self-sufficient in energy (heat and power).The identification of such potential heat loss areas (especiallyduring transient conditions) suggests the sugar mills play avital role in energy saving. In this study, a modified setup ofthe base case plant considered in part I of this paper is assessedfor its energy potential and possible major heat losses duringsteady state and transient conditions where 2-h stoppage of themill presses are considered to occur. For the modified setup,there are two major scenarios considered having two subscenarioseach. The result of the assessment showed that thesteady state assumption scenario of the modified plant (wherebagasse drying is not considered) indicated a 20 % reductionin the losses considered which resulted in a 57 % power generationincrease as compared to the steady state model of thebase case plant. It is also possible to save excess bagasse bydrying the bagasse for later use during unexpected stoppage.The carbon dioxide emission (amounting 29 t/day in case 2aof this study) that occurs during the use of fuel oil during suchstoppages will thus be avoided. The simple economic analysisshowed that it is only in case 2a where fuel oil cost is includedin the operation cost that resulted in a negative NPV. Since therest of the scenarios use bagasse as a fuel which is free, theNPV for all was positive. For the electricity price of 0.04 US$/kWh and discount rate of 15 %, the minimum paybackperiod attained is about 3 years (case 1b) where the bagassemoisture content is 30 % whereas the maximum payback periodis 6 years (case 1a) where there is no bagasse dryingconsidered.
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| 6. |
- Gebremeskel, Dawit, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term evolution of energy and electricity demand forecasting: The case of Ethiopia
- 2021
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X. ; 36
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Long-term energy demand forecasting is crucial for any country, in particular for developing countries with rapid developments of energy needs. This study focuses on Ethiopia, a country with a highly increasing energy demand resulting mainly from the currently low share of electricity access, rapid development of industrial parks, extensive expansion of the railway network, extensive irrigation schemes for agriculture, new cement and sugar factories, housing projects, power export plan to neighboring countries, etc. These all are on top of the 2.7% average population growth. In this study, the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) is used to explore different possible futures and also to forecast the long-term energy requirements in Ethiopia. The planning period is 33 years from 2018 to 2050. The study employs six different scenarios to unfold the future evolution. The developed scenarios are Business-As-Usual (BAU), Growth in Electrification and Urbanization (E&U), High Economic Growth (HEG) and three policy-driven, Improved Energy Efficiency (IEE-1, IEE-2 and IEE-3) scenarios. The pathways represented by these scenarios can show the maximum expected rise in demand under different drivers and the best-case energy saving opportunities. The model is also used to estimate the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
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| 7. |
- Getachew, Merkebu, et al.
(författare)
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Within and among farm variability of coffee quality of smallholders in southwest Ethiopia
- 2023
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Ingår i: Agroforestry Systems. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0167-4366 .- 1572-9680. ; 97:5, s. 883-905
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The biophysical drivers that affect coffee quality vary within and among farms. Quantifying their relative importance is crucial for making informed decisions concerning farm management, marketability and profit for coffee farmers. The present study was designed to quantify the relative importance of biophysical variables affecting coffee bean quality within and among coffee farms and to evaluate a near infrared spectroscopy-based model to predict coffee quality. Twelve coffee plants growing under low, intermediate and dense shade were studied in twelve coffee farms across an elevational gradient (1470–2325 m asl) in Ethiopia. We found large within farm variability, demonstrating that conditions varying at the coffee plant-level are of large importance for physical attributes and cupping scores of green coffee beans. Overall, elevation appeared to be the key biophysical variable influencing all the measured coffee bean quality attributes at the farm level while canopy cover appeared to be the most important biophysical variable driving the above-mentioned coffee bean quality attributes at the coffee plant level. The biophysical variables driving coffee quality (total preliminary and specialty quality) were the same as those driving variations in the near-infrared spectroscopy data, which supports future use of this technology to assess green bean coffee quality. Most importantly, our findings show that random forest is computationally fast and robust to noise, besides having comparable prediction accuracy. Hence, it is a useful machine learning tool for regression studies and has potential for modeling linear and nonlinear multivariate calibrations. The study also confirmed that near-infrared spectroscopic-based predictions can be applied as a supplementary approach for coffee cup quality evaluations.
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| 8. |
- Mulu, Andargachew, et al.
(författare)
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The challenges of COVID-19 testing in Africa : The Ethiopian experience
- 2021
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Ingår i: Pan African Medical Journal. - : Pan African Medical Journal. - 1937-8688. ; 38, s. 1-4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is spreading rapidly and creating a huge economic, social and public health challenge worldwide. Although currently an effective vaccine is ready, its distribution is limited, and hence the only currently available lever to reduce transmission is to identify and isolate individuals who are contagious. Thus, testing for SARS CoV-2 has a paramount importance. However, testing in many African countries including Ethiopia has multidimensional growing challenges. Here, we tried to identify, categorize and summarize the challenges of COVID19 testing in Africa from Ethiopian experience.
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| 9. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 10. |
- Worku, Seble, et al.
(författare)
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Bacterial profile of surgical site infection and antimicrobial resistance patterns in Ethiopia : a multicentre prospective cross-sectional study
- 2023
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Ingår i: Annals of Clinical Microbiology and Antimicrobials. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1476-0711. ; 22:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Globally, surgical site infections (SSI) are the most commonly reported healthcare-associated infections.Methods A multicentre study was conducted among patients who underwent surgical procedures at four hospitals located in Northern (Debre Tabor), Southern (Hawassa), Southwest (Jimma), and Central (Tikur Anbessa) parts of Ethiopia. A total of 752 patients clinically studied for surgical site infection were enrolled. The number of patients from Debre Tabor, Hawassa, Jimma, and Tikur Anbessa, hospitals was 172, 184, 193, and 203, respectively. At each study site, SSI discharge culture was performed from all patients, and positive cultures were characterized by colony characteristics, Gram stain, and conventional biochemical tests. Each bacterial species was confirmed using Matrix-Assisted Laser Desorption/Ionization Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometry (MALDI TOF). An antimicrobial susceptibility test (AST) was done on Mueller-Hinton agar using the disk diffusion method. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess associations of dependent and independent variables. A p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Data were analysed using STATA 16 software.Results Among 752 wound discharge cultures performed, 65.5% yielded growth. Among these, 57.9% and 42.1% were Gram-negative and Gram-positive isolates, respectively. In this study, a total of 494 bacteria were isolated; Staphylococcus aureus (31%), Escherichia coli (20.7%), and Klebsiella pneumoniae (9.8%) were the most common. Rare isolates (0.8% each) included Raoultella ornithinolytica, Stenotrophomonas maltophilia, Alcalignes faecalis, Pantoea ecurina, Bacillus flexus, and Paenibacillus tylopili. Enterobacteriaceae showed high levels of resistance to most of the tested antibiotics but lower levels of ertapenem (32.9%), amikacin (24.3%), imipenem (20.3%), and meropenem (17.6%) resistance. Multidrug-resistant (MDR) frequency of Enterobacteriaceae at Debre Tabor, Hawassa, Jimma, and Tikur Anbessa hospitals was 84.5%, 96.5%, 97.3%, and 94%, respectively. Ages >= 61 years (AOR = 2.83, 95% CI: 1.02-7.99; P 0.046), prolonged duration of hospital stay (AOR = 4.15, 95% CI: 2.87-6.01; P 0.000), history of previous antibiotics use (AOR = 2.83, 95% CI: 1.06-2.80; P 0.028), history of smoking (AOR = 2.35, 95% CI: 1.44-3.83; P 0.001), emergency surgery (AOR = 2.65, 95% CI: 1.92-3.66; P 0.000), and duration of operation (AOR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.181-0.392; P 0.000) were significant risk factors.Conclusion The most prevalent isolates from Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria across all hospitals were S. aureus and E. coli, respectively. Many newly emerging Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacteria were identified. Variation between hospitals was found for both SSI etiology type and MDR frequencies. Hence, to prevent the emergence and spread of MDR bacteria, standard bacteriological tests and their AST are indispensable for effective antimicrobial stewardship.
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