| 1. |
- Creutzig, Felix, et al.
(författare)
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Demand-side solutions to climate change mitigation consistent with high levels of wellbeing
- 2021
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Ingår i: Climate Research (CR). - : Research Square Platform LLC. - 0936-577X .- 1616-1572.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate mitigation solutions are often evaluated in terms of their costs and potentials. This accounting, however, shortcuts a comprehensive evaluation of how climate solutions affect human well-being, which, at best, may only be crudely related to cost considerations. Here, we systematically list key sectoral mitigation options on the demand side, and categorize them into avoid, shift and improve categories. We show that these options, bridging socio-behavioral, infrastructural and technological domains, can reduce counterfactual sectoral emissions by 50-80% in end use sectors. Based on expert judgement and literature survey, we then evaluate 324 combinations of wellbeing outcomes and demand side options. We find that these are largely beneficial in improving wellbeing across all measures combined (76% have positive, 22% neutral, and 2.4% have negative effects), even though confidence level is low in the social dimensions of wellbeing. Implementing demand-side solution requires i) an understanding of malleable not fixed preferences, ii) consistently measuring and evaluating constituents of wellbeing, and iii) addressing concerns of incumbents in supply-side industries. Our results shift the emphasis in the climate mitigation solution space from supply-side technologies to demand-side service provision.
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| 2. |
- Creutzig, Felix, et al.
(författare)
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Reviewing the scope and thematic focus of 100 000 publications on energy consumption, services and social aspects of climate change: a big data approach to demand-side mitigation *
- 2021
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - Stockholm : IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet. - 1748-9326 .- 1748-9318. ; 16:3, s. 033001-033001
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As current action remains insufficient to meet the goals of the Paris agreement let alone to stabilize the climate, there is increasing hope that solutions related to demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation can close the gap. However, given these topics are not investigated by a single epistemic community, the literature base underpinning the associated research continues to be undefined. Here, we aim to delineate a plausible body of literature capturing a comprehensive spectrum of demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation. As method we use a novel double-stacked expert—machine learning research architecture and expert evaluation to develop a typology and map key messages relevant for climate change mitigation within this body of literature. First, relying on the official key words provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by governments (across 17 queries), and on specific investigations of domain experts (27 queries), we identify 121 165 non-unique and 99 065 unique academic publications covering issues relevant for demand-side mitigation. Second, we identify a literature typology with four key clusters: policy, housing, mobility, and food/consumption. Third, we systematically extract key content-based insights finding that the housing literature emphasizes social and collective action, whereas the food/consumption literatures highlight behavioral change, but insights also demonstrate the dynamic relationship between behavioral change and social norms. All clusters point to the possibility of improved public health as a result of demand-side solutions. The centrality of the policy cluster suggests that political actions are what bring the different specific approaches together. Fourth, by mapping the underlying epistemic communities we find that researchers are already highly interconnected, glued together by common interests in sustainability and energy demand. We conclude by outlining avenues for interdisciplinary collaboration, synthetic analysis, community building, and by suggesting next steps for evaluating this body of literature.
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| 3. |
- Creutzig, Felix, et al.
(författare)
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Upscaling urban data science for global climate solutions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Global Sustainability. - : Cambridge University Press (CUP). - 2059-4798. ; 2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Non-technical summary Manhattan, Berlin and New Delhi all need to take action to adapt to climate change and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While case studies on these cities provide valuable insights, comparability and scalability remain sidelined. It is therefore timely to review the state-of-the-art in data infrastructures, including earth observations, social media data, and how they could be better integrated to advance climate change science in cities and urban areas. We present three routes for expanding knowledge on global urban areas: mainstreaming data collections, amplifying the use of big data and taking further advantage of computational methods to analyse qualitative data to gain new insights. These data-based approaches have the potential to upscale urban climate solutions and effect change at the global scale. Technical summary Cities have an increasingly integral role in addressing climate change. To gain a common understanding of solutions, we require adequate and representative data of urban areas, including data on related greenhouse gas emissions, climate threats and of socio-economic contexts. Here, we review the current state of urban data science in the context of climate change, investigating the contribution of urban metabolism studies, remote sensing, big data approaches, urban economics, urban climate and weather studies. We outline three routes for upscaling urban data science for global climate solutions: 1) Mainstreaming and harmonizing data collection in cities worldwide; 2) Exploiting big data and machine learning to scale solutions while maintaining privacy; 3) Applying computational techniques and data science methods to analyse published qualitative information for the systematization and understanding of first-order climate effects and solutions. Collaborative efforts towards a joint data platform and integrated urban services would provide the quantitative foundations of the emerging global urban sustainability science.
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| 4. |
- d'Amour, Christopher Bren, et al.
(författare)
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Future urban land expansion and implications for global croplands
- 2017
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 114:34, s. 8939-8944
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Urban expansion often occurs on croplands. However, there is little scientific understanding of how global patterns of future urban expansion will affect the world's cultivated areas. Here, we combine spatially explicit projections of urban expansion with datasets on global croplands and crop yields. Our results show that urban expansion will result in a 1.8-2.4% loss of global croplands by 2030, with substantial regional disparities. About 80% of global cropland loss from urban expansion will take place in Asia and Africa. In both Asia and Africa, much of the cropland that will be lost is more than twice as productive as national averages. Asia will experience the highest absolute loss in cropland, whereas African countries will experience the highest percentage loss of cropland. Globally, the croplands that are likely to be lost were responsible for 3-4% of worldwide crop production in 2000. Urban expansion is expected to take place on cropland that is 1.77 times more productive than the global average. The loss of cropland is likely to be accompanied by other sustainability risks and threatens livelihoods, with diverging characteristics for different megaurban regions. Governance of urban area expansion thus emerges as a key area for securing livelihoods in the agrarian economies of the Global South.
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| 5. |
- Gössling, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
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COVID-19 and pathways to low-carbon air transport until 2050
- 2021
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 1748-9326. ; 16:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented decline in global air transport and associated reduction in CO2 emissions. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) reacted by weakening its own CO2-offsetting rules. Here we investigate whether the pandemic can be an opportunity to bring the sector on a reliable low-carbon trajectory, with a starting point in the observed reduction in air transport demand. We model a COVID-19 recovery based on a feed-in quota for non-biogenic synthetic fuels that will decarbonize fuels by 2050, as well as a carbon price to account for negative externalities and as an incentive to increase fuel efficiency. Results suggest that until 2050, air transport demand will continue to grow, albeit slower than in ICAO's recovery scenarios, exceeding 2018 demand by 3.7-10.3 trillion RPK. Results show that synthetic fuels, produced by 14-20 EJ of photovoltaic energy, would make it possible to completely phase out fossil fuels and to avoid emissions of up to 26.5 Gt CO2 over the period 2022-2050.
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| 6. |
- Haites, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Contribution of carbon pricing to meeting a mid-century net zero target
- 2024
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Ingår i: Climate Policy. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1469-3062 .- 1752-7457.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A mid-century net zero target creates a challenge for reducing the emissions of emissions-intensive, trade-exposed sectors with high cost mitigation options. These sectors include aluminium, cement, chemicals, iron and steel, lime, pulp and paper and petroleum refining. Available studies agree that decarbonization of these sectors is possible by mid-century if more ambitious policies are implemented soon. Existing carbon pricing policies have had limited impact on the emissions of these sectors because their marginal abatement costs almost always exceed the tax rate or allowance price. But emissions trading systems with free allowance allocations to emissions-intensive, trade-exposed sectors have minimized the adverse economic impacts and associated leakage. Internationally coordinated policies are unlikely, so implementing more ambitious policies creates a risk of leakage. This paper presents policy packages a country can implement to accelerate emission reduction by these sectors with minimal risk of leakage. To comply with international trade law the policy packages differ for producers whose goods compete with imports in the domestic market and producers whose goods are exported. Carbon pricing is a critical component of each package due its ability to minimize the risk of adverse economic impacts on domestic industry, support innovation and generate revenue. The revenue can be used to assist groups adversely impacted by the domestic price and production changes due to carbon pricing and to build public support for the policies. Key policy insights A country with a mid-century net zero GHG emission target likely will need to implement more ambitious mitigation policies soon for emission-intensive sectors such as aluminium, cement, chemicals, iron and steel, lime, pulp and paper and petroleum refining. More ambitious mitigation policies are likely to vary by country and be implemented at different times, creating a risk of leakage due to industrial production shifts to other jurisdictions. More ambitious mitigation policy packages, compatible with international trade law, that a country can implement to reduce emissions from these sectors with minimal risk of leakage are available but differ for producers whose goods compete with imports in the domestic market and those whose goods are exported. Carbon pricing is a critical component of each package due its ability to minimize the risk of adverse economic impacts on domestic producers, support innovation and generate revenue.
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| 7. |
- Nielsen, Kristian S., et al.
(författare)
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The role of high-socioeconomic-status people in locking in or rapidly reducing energy-driven greenhouse gas emissions
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Energy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2058-7546. ; 6:11, s. 1011-1016
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- People with high socioeconomic status disproportionally affect energy-driven greenhouse gas emissions directly through their consumption and indirectly through their financial and social resources. However, few climate change mitigation initiatives have targeted this population segment, and the potential of such initiatives remains insufficiently researched. In this Perspective, we analyse key characteristics of high-socioeconomic-status people and explore five roles through which they have a disproportionate impact on energy-driven greenhouse gas emissions and potentially on climate change mitigation, namely as consumers, investors, role models, organizational participants and citizens. We examine what is known about their disproportionate impact via consumption and explore their potential influence on greenhouse gas emissions through all five roles. We suggest that future research should focus on strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by high-socioeconomic-status people and to align their investments, organizational choices and actions as social and political change agents with climate change mitigation goals.
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