1. |
- Estrada, Alba, et al.
(författare)
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Equipped to cope with climate change : Traits associated with range filling across European taxa
- 2018
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Ingår i: Ecography. - : Wiley. - 0906-7590. ; 41:5, s. 770-781
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In order to understand the ecological effects of climate change it is essential to forecast suitable areas for species in the future. However, species' ability to reach potentially suitable areas is also critical for species survival. These 'range-shift' abilities can be studied using life-history traits related to four range-shift stages: emigration, movement, establishment, and proliferation. Here, we use the extent to which species' ranges fill the climatically suitable area available ('range filling') as a proxy for the ability of European mammals and birds to shift their ranges under climate change. We detect which traits associate most closely with range filling. Drawing comparisons with a recent analysis for plants, we ask whether the latitudinal position of species' ranges supports the assertion that post-glacial range-shift limitations cause disequilibrium between ranges and climate. We also disentangle which of the three taxonomic groups has greatest range filling. For mammals, generalists and early-reproducing species have the greatest range filling. For birds, generalist species with high annual fecundity, which live longer than expected based on body size, have the greatest range filling. Although we consider traits related to the four range-shift stages, only traits related to establishment and proliferation ability significantly influence range filling of mammals and birds. Species with the greatest range filling are those whose range centroid falls in the latitudinal centre of Europe, suggesting that post-glacial range expansion is a leading cause of disequilibrium with climate, although other explanations are also possible. Range filling of plants is lower than that of mammals or birds, suggesting that plants are more range-limited by non-climatic factors. Therefore, plants might be face greater non-climatic restraints on range shifts than mammals or birds.
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2. |
- Estrada, Alba, et al.
(författare)
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Usefulness of Species Traits in Predicting Range Shifts.
- 2016
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Ingår i: Trends in Ecology & Evolution. - : Elsevier BV. - 1872-8383 .- 0169-5347.
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Information on the ecological traits of species might improve predictions of climate-driven range shifts. However, the usefulness of traits is usually assumed rather than quantified. Here, we present a framework to identify the most informative traits, based on four key range-shift processes: emigration of individuals or propagules away from the natal location; the distance a species can move; establishment of self-sustaining populations; and proliferation following establishment. We propose a framework that categorises traits according to their contribution to range-shift processes. We demonstrate how the framework enables the predictive value of traits to be evaluated empirically and how this categorisation can be used to better understand range-shift processes; we also illustrate how range-shift estimates can be improved.
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3. |
- García-Valdés, Raúl, et al.
(författare)
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Climate change impacts on long-term forest productivity might be driven by species turnover rather than by changes in tree growth
- 2020
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Ingår i: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 29:8, s. 1360-1372
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim: Climate change impacts forest functioning and services through two inter-related effects. First, it impacts tree growth, with effects, for example, on biomass production. Second, climate change also reshuffles community composition, with further effects on forest functioning. However, the relative importance of these two effects has rarely been studied. Here, we developed a new modelling approach to investigate these relative importances for forest productivity. Location: Eleven forest sites in central Europe. Time period: Historical (1990) and end-of-21st-century climate-like conditions. We simulated 2,000 years of forest dynamics for each set of conditions. Major taxa studied: Twenty-five common tree species in European temperate forests. Methods: We coupled species distribution models and a forest succession model, working at complementary spatial and temporal scales, to simulate the climatic filtering that shapes potential tree species pools, the biotic filtering that shapes realized communities and the functioning of these realized communities in the long-term. Results: Under an average temperature increase (relative to 1901–1990) of between 1.5 and 1.7 °C, changes in simulated forest productivity were caused mostly by changes in the growth of persisting tree species. With an average temperature increase of 3.6–4.0 °C, changes in simulated productivity at sites that currently have a mild climate were again caused predominantly by changes in tree species growth. However, at the warmest and coldest sites, changes in productivity were related mostly to shifts in species composition. In general, at the coldest sites, forest productivity is likely to be enhanced by climate change, whereas at the warmest sites the productivity might increase or decrease depending on the future precipitation regime. Main conclusions: A combination of two complementary modelling approaches that address questions at the interface between biogeography, community ecology and ecosystem functioning, reveals that climate change-driven community reshuffling in the long term might be crucially important for ecosystem functioning.
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4. |
- Årevall, Jonatan, et al.
(författare)
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Conditions for successful range shifts under climate change: The role of species dispersal and landscape configuration
- 2018
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Ingår i: Diversity & distributions. - : WILEY. - 1366-9516 .- 1472-4642. ; 24:11, s. 1598-1611
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim: Ongoing climate change is currently modifying the geographical location of areas that are climatically suitable for species. Understanding a species ability to successfully shift its geographical range would allow us to assess extinction risks and predict future community compositions. We investigate how habitat configuration impedes or promotes climate-driven range shifts, given different speeds of climate change and dispersal abilities. Location: Theoretical, but illustrated with European examples. Methods: We model how a species ability to track a directional shift in climatic conditions is affected by (a) species dispersal abilities; (b) speed of climatic shift; and (c) spatial arrangement of the habitat. Our modelling framework includes within-and between-patch population dynamics and uses ecologically realistic habitat distributions and dispersal scenarios (verified with data from a set of European mammal species) and, as such, is an improvement of classical range shift models. Result: In landscapes with a homogeneous distribution of suitable habitats, all but the least dispersive species will be able to range shift. However, species with high dispersal ability will have lower population densities after range shift. In heterogeneous landscapes species ability to range shift is far more variable and heavily dependent on the habitat configuration. This means that landscape configuration in combination with the speed of climate change and species dispersal abilities give rise to nonlinear effects on population sizes and survival after a climatic shift. Main conclusions: Our analyses point out the importance of accounting for the interplay of species dispersal and the landscape configuration when estimating future climate impact on species. These results link ecologically important attributes of both species and their landscapes to outcomes of species range shift, and thereby long-term persistence of ecological communities.
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