| 1. |
- Doubek, Jonathan P., et al.
(författare)
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The extent and variability of storm-induced temperature changes in lakes measured with long-term and high-frequency data
- 2021
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Ingår i: Limnology and Oceanography. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0024-3590 .- 1939-5590. ; 66:5, s. 1979-1992
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The intensity and frequency of storms are projected to increase in many regions of the world because of climate change. Storms can alter environmental conditions in many ecosystems. In lakes and reservoirs, storms can reduce epilimnetic temperatures from wind-induced mixing with colder hypolimnetic waters, direct precipitation to the lake's surface, and watershed runoff. We analyzed 18 long-term and high-frequency lake datasets from 11 countries to assess the magnitude of wind- vs. rainstorm-induced changes in epilimnetic temperature. We found small day-to-day epilimnetic temperature decreases in response to strong wind and heavy rain during stratified conditions. Day-to-day epilimnetic temperature decreased, on average, by 0.28 degrees C during the strongest windstorms (storm mean daily wind speed among lakes: 6.7 +/- 2.7 m s(-1), 1 SD) and by 0.15 degrees C after the heaviest rainstorms (storm mean daily rainfall: 21.3 +/- 9.0 mm). The largest decreases in epilimnetic temperature were observed >= 2 d after sustained strong wind or heavy rain (top 5(th) percentile of wind and rain events for each lake) in shallow and medium-depth lakes. The smallest decreases occurred in deep lakes. Epilimnetic temperature change from windstorms, but not rainstorms, was negatively correlated with maximum lake depth. However, even the largest storm-induced mean epilimnetic temperature decreases were typically <2 degrees C. Day-to-day temperature change, in the absence of storms, often exceeded storm-induced temperature changes. Because storm-induced temperature changes to lake surface waters were minimal, changes in other limnological variables (e.g., nutrient concentrations or light) from storms may have larger impacts on biological communities than temperature changes.
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| 2. |
- Edwards, Michael, 1986, et al.
(författare)
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The shear strength of nano-Ag sintered joints and the use of Ag interconnects in the design and manufacture of SiGe-based thermo-electric modules
- 2015
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Ingår i: Microelectronics and Reliability. - : Elsevier BV. - 0026-2714 .- 1872-941X. ; 55:5, s. 722-732
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Thermo-electric modules (TEMs) can be used to convert heat into electricity by utilizing the Seeback effect. It is now possible to buy BiTe thermo-electric modules that can operate up to temperatures of around 300 °C. However, many applications, such as the harvesting of excess gas turbine heat, may occur at higher temperatures. Therefore, new materials and manufacturing processes need to be developed to produce packaged TEMs that can operate at a maximum operating temperature of 650 °C. Two critical areas in the manufacture of a SiGe TEM are the choice and strength of materials used to both sintered joint the TE material to the rest of the module and the metal used for the interconnects. The interconnection material needs to be sufficiently strong to withstand large temperature fluctuations while maintaining a low contact resistance, as well as being compatible with the nano-Ag sintered joint. Shear force tests of the sintered thermo electrical leg material showed that the joints are brittle when sintered to W metallized AlN substrates are used and ductile fracture behavior when sintered to Cu metallized AlN substrates using the NanoTach K nano silver paste. Almost all of the joints were found to be brittle when using the NachTach X nano silver paste. Shear testing of the sintered joints showed that the X paste joints were variable in strength and stiffness, having a typical Young's modulus between 10 and 100 MPa at room temperature. The K paste joints were stiffer, but had a similar strength as compared to the X paste joints.
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| 3. |
- Rodríguez, A., et al.
(författare)
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Implications of crop model ensemble size and composition for estimates of adaptation effects and agreement of recommendations
- 2019
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Ingår i: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0168-1923 .- 1873-2240. ; 264, s. 351-362
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is expected to severely affect cropping systems and food production in many parts of the world unless local adaptation can ameliorate these impacts. Ensembles of crop simulation models can be useful tools for assessing if proposed adaptation options are capable of achieving target yields, whilst also quantifying the share of uncertainty in the simulated crop impact resulting from the crop models themselves. Although some studies have analysed the influence of ensemble size on model outcomes, the effect of ensemble composition has not yet been properly appraised. Moreover, results and derived recommendations typically rely on averaged ensemble simulation results without accounting sufficiently for the spread of model outcomes. Therefore, we developed an Ensemble Outcome Agreement (EOA) index, which analyses the effect of changes in composition and size of a multi-model ensemble (MME) to evaluate the level of agreement between MME outcomes with respect to a given hypothesis (e.g. that adaptation measures result in positive crop responses). We analysed the recommendations of a previous study performed with an ensemble of 17 crop models and testing 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) at Lleida (NE Spain) under perturbed conditions of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results confirmed that most adaptations recommended in the previous study have a positive effect. However, we also showed that some options did not remain recommendable in specific conditions if different ensembles were considered. Using EOA, we were able to identify the adaptation options for which there is high confidence in their effectiveness at enhancing yields, even under severe climate perturbations. These include substituting spring wheat for winter wheat combined with earlier sowing dates and standard or longer duration cultivars, or introducing supplementary irrigation, the latter increasing EOA values in all cases. There is low confidence in recovering yields to baseline levels, although this target could be attained for some adaptation options under moderate climate perturbations. Recommendations derived from such robust results may provide crucial information for stakeholders seeking to implement adaptation measures.
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| 4. |
- Ruiz-Ramos, Miguel, et al.
(författare)
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Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO2 in a Mediterranean environment
- 2018
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Ingår i: Agricultural Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0308-521X. ; 159, s. 260-274
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Adaptation of crops to climate change has to be addressed locally due to the variability of soil, climate and the specific socio-economic settings influencing farm management decisions. Adaptation of rainfed cropping systems in the Mediterranean is especially challenging due to the projected decline in precipitation in the coming decades, which will increase the risk of droughts. Methods that can help explore uncertainties in climate projections and crop modelling, such as impact response surfaces (IRSs) and ensemble modelling, can then be valuable for identifying effective adaptations. Here, an ensemble of 17 crop models was used to simulate a total of 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) at Lleida (NE Spain). To support the ensemble building, an ex post quality check of model simulations based on several criteria was performed. Those criteria were based on the "According to Our Current Knowledge" (AOCK) concept, which has been formalized here. Adaptations were based on changes in cultivars and management regarding phenology, vernalization, sowing date and irrigation. The effects of adaptation options under changed precipitation (P), temperature (T), [CO2] and soil type were analysed by constructing response surfaces, which we termed, in accordance with their specific purpose, adaptation response surfaces (ARSs). These were created to assess the effect of adaptations through a range of plausible P, T and [CO2] perturbations. The results indicated that impacts of altered climate were predominantly negative. No single adaptation was capable of overcoming the detrimental effect of the complex interactions imposed by the P, T and [CO2] perturbations except for supplementary irrigation (sI), which reduced the potential impacts under most of the perturbations. Yet, a combination of adaptations for dealing with climate change demonstrated that effective adaptation is possible at Lleida. Combinations based on a cultivar without vernalization requirements showed good and wide adaptation potential. Few combined adaptation options performed well under rainfed conditions. However, a single sI was sufficient to develop a high adaptation potential, including options mainly based on spring wheat, current cycle duration and early sowing date. Depending on local environment (e.g. soil type), many of these adaptations can maintain current yield levels under moderate changes in T and P, and some also under strong changes. We conclude that ARSs can offer a useful tool for supporting planning of field level adaptation under conditions of high uncertainty.
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| 5. |
- Yasin, M., et al.
(författare)
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Climate change impact uncertainty assessment and adaptations for sustainable maize production using multi-crop and climate models
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Science and Pollution Research. - : Springer. - 0944-1344 .- 1614-7499. ; 29, s. 18967-18988
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Future climate scenarios are predicting considerable threats to sustainable maize production in arid and semi-arid regions. These adverse impacts can be minimized by adopting modern agricultural tools to assess and develop successful adaptation practices. A multi-model approach (climate and crop) was used to assess the impacts and uncertainties of climate change on maize crop. An extensive field study was conducted to explore the temporal thermal variations on maize hybrids grown at farmer’s fields for ten sowing dates during two consecutive growing years. Data about phenology, morphology, biomass development, and yield were recorded by adopting standard procedures and protocols. The CSM-CERES, APSIM, and CSM-IXIM-Maize models were calibrated and evaluated. Five GCMs among 29 were selected based on classification into different groups and uncertainty to predict climatic changes in the future. The results predicted that there would be a rise in temperature (1.57–3.29 °C) during the maize growing season in five General Circulation Models (GCMs) by using RCP 8.5 scenarios for the mid-century (2040–2069) as compared with the baseline (1980–2015). The CERES-Maize and APSIM-Maize model showed lower root mean square error values (2.78 and 5.41), higher d-index (0.85 and 0.87) along reliable R2 (0.89 and 0.89), respectively for days to anthesis and maturity, while the CSM-IXIM-Maize model performed well for growth parameters (leaf area index, total dry matter) and yield with reasonably good statistical indices. The CSM-IXIM-Maize model performed well for all hybrids during both years whereas climate models, NorESM1-M and IPSL-CM5A-MR, showed less uncertain results for climate change impacts. Maize models along GCMs predicted a reduction in yield (8–55%) than baseline. Maize crop may face a high yield decline that could be overcome by modifying the sowing dates and fertilizer (fertigation) and heat and drought-tolerant hybrids.
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