| 1. |
- Binz, Christian, et al.
(författare)
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Toward Technology-Sensitive Catching-Up Policies: Insights from Renewable Energy in China
- 2017
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Ingår i: World Development. - : Elsevier BV. - 0305-750X .- 1873-5991. ; 96, s. 418-437
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The voluminous literature on industrial catching-up in Southeast Asian countries has regularly argued that successful catching-up largely depended on a committed state, which orchestrated industry development with a relatively uniform set of policies, including R&D support, subsidies, trade restrictions, and local content requirements. In contrast, recent contributions from the technology lifecycle literature have argued that policies should be tailored to differing technological characteristics in industries for mass-produced standardized goods, complex engineered products, and—as we argue—complex product systems (CoPS). In this paper, we extend this argument by introducing a set of separate policy mixes for each industry type, which appears most capable of providing the key resources required for catching-up: knowledge, market access, financial investment and technology legitimacy. This framework is used to analyze catching-up patterns in China’s wind, solar PV, and biomass power plant industries, drawing mainly on policy documents and 106 interviews with key industry actors.We find that traditional top-down catching-up policies played a decisive role in the development of China’s wind industry, but were of limited importance in the early solar PV industry, and resulted only in a limited period of rapid growth in the biomass power plant industry. The relative progress achieved in these three industries is not related to top-down policy guidance alone, but also to private sector initiative, international interdependencies, and flexibility in adapting policy mixes to each industry’s technological characteristics. These results suggest that policy makers in newly industrializing countries (NICs) should avoid drafting generic sector plans, but should tailor plans to individual industries, and respond to changing policy support needs as technological capacities and global competitiveness develop.
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| 2. |
- Gosens, Jorrit, 1980
(författare)
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Biopower from direct firing of crop and forestry residues in China: A review of developments and investment outlook
- 2015
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Ingår i: Biomass and Bioenergy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1873-2909 .- 0961-9534. ; 73, s. 110-123
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper reviews developments in the direct-fired biomass power sector and provides an up to date investment outlook by calculating the Net Present Value of new investments, and the appropriate level of Feed-in-Tariff needed to stimulate future investment. An overview is provided of support policies, historical growth in installations, and main market players. A number of data sources is combined to build a database with detailed information of individual biopower projects. This data is used to describe technological and market trends, which are used in a cash flow model to calculate the NPV of a typical project. The NPV for new projects is estimated to be negative, and investment should be expected to stall without proper policy intervention. Increasing fuel prices, local competition over biomass fuel resources, lower than expected operational performance and a downturn in carbon markets have deteriorated the investment outlook. In order to ensure reasonable profitability, the Feed-In-Tariff should be increased, from the current level of 90.9 € MWh−1, to between 97 and 105 € MWh−1. Where possible, government organizations should help organize demand for the supply of heat. Local rural energy bureaus may help organize supply networks for biomass fuels throughout the country, in order to reduce seasonal and local fuel scarcity and price fluctuations.
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| 3. |
- Gosens, Jorrit, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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China's next renewable energy revolution: goals and mechanisms in the 13th Five Year Plan for energy
- 2017
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Ingår i: Energy Science and Engineering. - : Wiley. - 2050-0505. ; 5:3, s. 141-155
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the past few months, China has published its development plans for the 13th Five Year Plan [FYP] period [2016–2020] for energy, and separately for the electricity sector, renewable energy, hydro, wind, solar, and biomass energy. Here, we review these policies, as well as a number of key supporting policy documents that aim at increased renewable energy use in China. Presuming that China will not overshoot its growth targets for wind and PV, annual additions over the 13th FYP period will average 16 GW for wind and 13.5 GW for PV, well below the growth levels seen in recent years. The key to success in China's continued transition to renewable energy, however, does not lie in such capacity additions alone. At least as important will be the efforts at improving grid interconnectedness, flexibility of generating capacity and the grid, market mechanisms that will reduce and spread electricity demand, and better enable renewables to compete, and efforts at increasing the level of consumption of the renewable power generated.
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| 4. |
- Gosens, Jorrit, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Faster market growth of wind and PV in late adopters due to global experience build-up
- 2017
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Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442 .- 1873-6785. ; 131, s. 267-278
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Different perspectives on the diffusion of technologies have suggested that market growth of technologies in late adopter countries may be either slower (because the technology is adopted later in areas where the technology has poorer economic performance) or faster (because global experience has resulted in maturation and improved performance of the technology). We compare the pace of market growth of wind and PV power in early and late adopters. We use panel data analysis on a database spanning all countries of the world, and years 1980–2014. We find that late adopters manage to access the global experience with these technologies, and utilize it to accelerate domestic market growth. Despite their lower GDP, late adopter countries have managed market growth for wind power that was up to 4.7 times faster than it was in early adopters, and up to 16 times faster for PV. These results suggest increased development efforts of novel clean-tech may kick-start rapid global deployment. Beneficial effects are less for very late adopters and less developed economies, signalling attention is needed for these in global climate change mitigation efforts.
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| 5. |
- Gosens, Jorrit, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Global innovation system life-cycles: country-level entry, innovation and leadership in wind turbine manufacturing
- 2017
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Ingår i: The 8th International Sustainability Transitions Conference.
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The greatest prospects for survival and industry leadership in a new growth industry largely accrues to early entrants. This has been described at the level of the firm in the literature on industry lifecycles, and at the level of countries in the literature on lead markets. Here, we perform a case study of the global wind turbine manufacturing industry at both country and firm level. We find that turbine markets were indeed dominated by the earliest of manufacturing firms for some time, but that waves of new entrants from the second half the nineties onwards have taken increasingly large shares of the market. These successful late entrant firms, however, did all originate from early entrant or early follower countries. Late entrants from late adopter countries have been altogether unsuccessful. It appears that the accumulated localized experience in early adopter countries provides a beneficial development environment for domestic manufacturers, in early as well as later phases of global industry development.
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| 6. |
- Gosens, Jorrit, 1980
(författare)
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Natural resource endowment is not a strong driver of wind or PV development
- 2017
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Ingår i: Renewable Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0960-1481 .- 1879-0682. ; 113, s. 1007-1018
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Natural resources have previously been included in analyses explaining differences between renewable energy deployment across countries or subnational regions. Most previous analyses used resource volumes, or rough proxies for these, and results have been inconclusive. This study uses panel data analysis, with indicators of both the quality and quantity of natural resources, and analyses effects on wind and PV development by comparing countries of the world, and provinces or states of China, Germany, and the US. Either measure of natural resources has limited explanatory power on differences in wind or PV development between countries. Resource quality, not quantity, has a more consistent, positive effect when comparing states or provinces of China, Germany and the US. Still, plenty of countries, states or provinces with relatively poor quality natural resources have managed relatively high levels of wind or PV development, and vice versa. The only exceptions are the US wind power market and the Chinese PV market, where development is more strongly correlated with natural resources. The conclusion is that natural resources are a small part in a larger set of drivers, and that low quality natural resources do not preclude developing relatively high market shares of wind or PV power.
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| 7. |
- Gosens, Jorrit, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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The limits of academic entrepreneurship: Conflicting expectations about commercialization and innovation in China's nascent sector for advanced bio-energy technologies
- 2018
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Ingår i: Energy Research and Social Science. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-6296. ; 37, s. 1-11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite many years of substantial government research funding, advanced bio-energy technologies in China have seen limited commercial application. Chinese policy makers are increasingly critical of academic organizations for neglecting their role in the transfer of scientific results into industrial applications. We interviewed a selection of Chinese research groups working on bio-energy technologies, and asked them to describe their efforts at commercialization. We found that they focus their research on technological pathways with commercial potential, they patent and attempt to license their technologies, they are highly involved in large scale demonstration plants, and have created a number of new firms. Industry and government may have unrealistic expectations on the maturity and scale of technologies that academia can develop, however. These findings contrast with many earlier analyses of early commercialization stages of novel technologies, which have commonly identified lacking academic entrepreneurship as a root cause in stalling development.
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| 8. |
- Gosens, Jorrit, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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The role of transnational dimensions in emerging economy 'Technological Innovation Systems' for clean-tech
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Cleaner Production. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-6526 .- 1879-1786. ; 86, s. 378-388
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The 'Technological Innovation System' (TIS) framework and its system functions have become a popular analytical tool for the study of clean-tech innovation. There is increasing attention for the role of emerging economies in global clean-tech innovation, but the applicability of TIS to emerging economies cases is not entirely straightforward. A key issue is the limited geographical considerations, in particular transnational dimensions in TIS, whereas earlier perspectives on innovation in emerging economies have stressed the role of such transnational dimensions. This paper elaborates transnational TIS actor-networks and institutions, categorizes these in relation to TIS functions, and describes their potential to induce or block TIS development in emerging economies. We draw on insights from the perspectives of National Learning Systems, International Technology Transfer, and Global Production Networks for this purpose. We conclude that the potential effects of these transnational dimensions may be accurately grasped by the existing list of system functions, lending credence to its further application of the TIS framework on emerging economy case studies. Policy makers in emerging economies should recognize these transnational dimensions and seek to optimize their potential effect on domestic TIS development, taking in to consideration a realistic assessment of its role in the global TIS. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 9. |
- Kåberger, Tomas, 1961, et al.
(författare)
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Kina har tagit ledningen
- 2016
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Ingår i: Dagens industri. - 0346-640X.
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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