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| 2. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 4. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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| 5. |
- Fridlund, Malcolm, 1952, et al.
(författare)
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The TOI-763 system: Sub-Neptunes orbiting a Sun-like star
- 2020
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Ingår i: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 498:3, s. 4503-4517
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report the discovery of a planetary system orbiting TOI-763(aka CD-39 7945), a V = 10.2, high proper motion G-type dwarf star that was photometrically monitored by the TESS space mission in Sector 10. We obtain and model the stellar spectrum and find an object slightly smaller than the Sun, and somewhat older, but with a similar metallicity. Two planet candidates were found in the light curve to be transiting the star. Combining TESS transit photometry with HARPS high-precision radial velocity (RV) follow-up measurements confirm the planetary nature of these transit signals. We determine masses, radii, and bulk densities of these two planets. A third planet candidate was discovered serendipitously in the RV data. The inner transiting planet, TOI-763 b, has an orbital period of Pb = 5.6 d, a mass of Mb = 9.8 ± 0.8 M⊕, and a radius of Rb = 2.37 ± 0.10 R⊕. The second transiting planet, TOI-763 c, has an orbital period of Pc = 12.3 d, a mass of Mc = 9.3 ± 1.0 M⊕, and a radius of Rc = 2.87 ± 0.11 R⊕. We find the outermost planet candidate to orbit the star with a period of ∼48 d. If confirmed as a planet, it would have a minimum mass of Md = 9.5 ± 1.6 M⊕. We investigated the TESS light curve in order to search for a mono transit by planet d without success. We discuss the importance and implications of this planetary system in terms of the geometrical arrangements of planets orbiting G-type stars.
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| 6. |
- Seiler, Roland, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of Molecular Subtypes in Muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer on Predicting Response and Survival after Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy
- 2017
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Ingår i: European Urology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0302-2838. ; 72:4, s. 544-554
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: An early report on the molecular subtyping of muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) by gene expression suggested that response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) varies by subtype. Objective: To investigate the ability of molecular subtypes to predict pathological downstaging and survival after NAC. Design, setting, and participants: Whole transcriptome profiling was performed on pre-NAC transurethral resection specimens from 343 patients with MIBC. Samples were classified according to four published molecular subtyping methods. We developed a single-sample genomic subtyping classifier (GSC) to predict consensus subtypes (claudin-low, basal, luminal-infiltrated and luminal) with highest clinical impact in the context of NAC. Overall survival (OS) according to subtype was analyzed and compared with OS in 476 non-NAC cases (published datasets). Intervention: Gene expression analysis was used to assign subtypes. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis: Receiver-operating characteristics were used to determine the accuracy of GSC. The effect of GSC on survival was estimated by Cox proportional hazard regression models. Results and limitations: The models generated subtype calls in expected ratios with high concordance across subtyping methods. GSC was able to predict four consensus molecular subtypes with high accuracy (73%), and clinical significance of the predicted consensus subtypes could be validated in independent NAC and non-NAC datasets. Luminal tumors had the best OS with and without NAC. Claudin-low tumors were associated with poor OS irrespective of treatment regimen. Basal tumors showed the most improvement in OS with NAC compared with surgery alone. The main limitations of our study are its retrospective design and comparison across datasets. Conclusions: Molecular subtyping may have an impact on patient benefit to NAC. If validated in additional studies, our results suggest that patients with basal tumors should be prioritized for NAC. We discovered the first single-sample classifier to subtype MIBC, which may be suitable for integration into routine clinical practice. Patient summary: Different molecular subtypes can be identified in muscle-invasive bladder cancer. Although cisplatin-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy improves patient outcomes, we identified that the benefit is highest in patients with basal tumors. Our newly discovered classifier can identify these molecular subtypes in a single patient and could be integrated into routine clinical practice after further validation. Molecular subtypes in muscle-invasive bladder cancer appear have an impact on patient response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC); namely, patients with basal tumors showed the most benefit from NAC and should be prioritized for NAC. Moreover, these subtypes can be identified in a single sample by our discovered classifier.
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| 7. |
- Diaz, Matias R., et al.
(författare)
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TOI-132 b: A short-period planet in the Neptune desert transiting a V=11.3 G-type star
- 2020
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Ingår i: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 493:1, s. 973-985
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Neptune desert is a feature seen in the radius-period plane, whereby a notable dearth of short period, Neptune-like planets is found. Here, we report the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) discovery of a new short-period planet in the Neptune desert, orbiting the G-type dwarf TYC 8003-1117-1 (TOI-132). TESS photometry shows transit-like dips at the level of similar to 1400 ppm occurring every similar to 2.11 d. High-precision radial velocity follow-up with High Accuracy Radial Velocity Planet Searcher confirmed the planetary nature of the transit signal and provided a semi-amplitude radial velocity variation of 11.38(-0.85)(+0.84) m s(-1), which, when combined with the stellar mass of 0.97 +/- 0.06 M-circle dot, provides a planetary mass of 22.40(-1.92)(+1.90) M-circle plus. Modelling the TESS light curve returns a planet radius of 3.42(-0.14)(+0.13) R-circle plus , and therefore the planet bulk density is found to be 3.08(-0.46)(+0.44) g cm(-3). Planet structure models suggest that the bulk of the planet mass is in the form of a rocky core, with an atmospheric mass fraction of 4.3(-2.3)(+1.2) percent. TOI-132 b is a TESS Level 1 Science Requirement candidate, and therefore priority follow-up will allow the search for additional planets in the system, whilst helping to constrain low-mass planet formation and evolution models, particularly valuable for better understanding of the Neptune desert.
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| 8. |
- Subjak, Jan, et al.
(författare)
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TOI-503: The First Known Brown-dwarf Am-star Binary from the TESS Mission
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astronomical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-3881 .- 0004-6256. ; 159:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report the discovery of an intermediate-mass transiting brown dwarf (BD), TOI-503b, from the TESS mission. TOI-503b is the first BD discovered by TESS, and it has circular orbit around a metallic-line A-type star with a period of P.=.3.6772.+/-.0.0001 days. The light curve from TESS indicates that TOI-503b transits its host star in a grazing manner, which limits the precision with which we measure the BD's radius ( = R 1.34+ R b 0.150.26 J). We obtained highresolution spectroscopic observations with the FIES, Ondr.ejov, PARAS, Tautenburg, and TRES spectrographs, and measured the mass of TOI-503b to be Mb.=.53.7.+/-.1.2 MJ. The host star has a mass of Ma.=.1.80.+/-.0.06Me, a radius of Ra.=.1.70.+/-.0.05Re, an effective temperature of Teff.=.7650.+/-.160 K, and a relatively high metallicity of 0.61.+/-.0.07 dex. We used stellar isochrones to derive the age of the system to be 180 Myr, which places its age between that of RIK 72b (a 10 Myr old BD in the Upper Scorpius stellar association) and AD 3116b (a 600 Myr old BD in the Praesepe cluster). Given the difficulty in measuring the tidal interactions between BDs and their host stars, we cannot precisely say whether this BD formed in situ or has had its orbit circularized by its host star over the relatively short age of the system. Instead, we offer an examination of plausible values for the tidal quality factor for the star and BD. TOI-503b joins a growing number of known short-period, intermediate-mass BDs orbiting mainsequence stars, and is the second such BD known to transit an A star, after HATS-70b. With the growth in the population in this regime, the driest region in the BD desert (35-55MJ sin i) is reforesting.
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