| 1. |
- Andersson, Kent, et al.
(författare)
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Technology Forecast 2012: Military utility of ten technologies : a report from seminars at the SNDC Department of Military Technology
- 2012
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Ten technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College (Note that there probably are other technology areas, equally interesting, but not included in this study). The task given by FMV was to assess the military utility of the chosen technologies in a time frame from 2025 to 2030, from a SwAF viewpoint.The method used was first to make a summary of each forecast report. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that are assessed to be the best in order to show possible utility as well as possibilities and drawbacks of the technology. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Conclusions regarding the military utility of the technology were drawn.We introduce our definition of military utility as being activities that efficiently and with the lowest cost in terms of lives and materiel lead to fulfilment of the mission objectives.The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with a significant potential, with uncertain potential and with negligible potential.The following technologies were assessed to have a significant potential for military utility;Augmented RealityNano air vehiclesSolid State Laser weaponsIn the scenarios studied, Augmented Reality (AR) is assessed to have a positive impact on several SwAF capabilities, especially for C2 and intelligence. AR is a relatively mature technology, applicable in many different branches. There are examples where AR is already applied with great success, e.g. Head-Up-Displays, HUD. The technology has proven its value. However, there are well known drawbacks to the technology such as weaknesses regarding models, increased weight for dismounted soldiers, power consumption etc. There is also a risk that personnel will have problems solving their tasks when AR systems fail, not being used to fighting without supporting systems.Nano air vehicles (NAV’s) have been assessed to contribute to a large range of capabilities, primarily intelligence. Their lifecycle cost has been assessed to be low, since development in this area is commercially driven, bringing down acquisition costs. Also, FAA has decided to allow NAV’s in controlled air space from 2015, which is expected to lead to an increase in civilian use of NAV’s. The technology is relatively mature even though there are obstacles concerning suitable materials, energy efficient propulsion systems as well as miniaturized microprocessors and software to control them.In the scenario studied, High Energy Solid State Lasers are assessed to have a positive impact on SwAF capabilities to engage targets on surface and in the air. The technology can be used to protect vessels on the surface and thereby increase survivability. The development of SSL in the given timeframe is expected to lower cost per shot and avoid the environmental problems with use of chemical lasers. Neighbouring military powers are expected to use laser weapons in the future, therefore SwAF should monitor the development of the laser weapons technology and develop and purchase adequate countermeasures.The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain potential for military utility;Metamaterial cloakingElectromagnetic gunSmall satellitesUltra-violet communicationMetamaterial cloaking, if realisable in the future, is assessed to be firstly implemented in the acoustic spectrum, since manufacturing of small structured cloaks for the shorter wavelengths in the optic and radar spectra is believed to be more difficult. Cloaking of submarines is primarily assessed to increase the survivability against torpedoes having active sonar. The use of cloaked mines could pose a deterring threat, even to advanced amphibious operations against Sweden. The technological development in this area should be closely monitored and compared to existing, maturing techniques for countermeasures and for the development of broad spectrum active torpedoes. The greatest concern is that cloaking will have negative impact on submarine manoeuvrability.The electro-thermal chemical (ETC) gun seems to be a first step towards a fully electrical gun such as the rail-gun or the coil-gun. The fully electrical guns have been a work in progress for some decades and there are still remaining challenges both concerning electrical power supply and design materials. When or if, they will be operational is difficult to say.The military utility of small satellites is disputed, despite an assessed contribution to several of the SwAF capabilities. The main reason for this is that there seems to be other alternatives which provide the desired capabilities, at a lower cost. Furthermore, the realisability and performance of small productionline manufactured nanosatellites is uncertain. However the scenario has shown that there are benefits to the military utility not met by other resources, e.g. the capability to perform surveillance and reconnaissance in operational areas globally without risking violation of the territorial integrity of other states or the lives of military personnel. Since there is a great interest in the technology area and several programmes are ongoing internationally the knowledgebase is assessed to be significantly better in a five year period. Also, the Swedish in depth study of space exploitation is soon to report.Ultra-violet communication has uncertain potential for military utility within the period, but the technology is assessed to have a positive impact on SwAF capability to maintain communications. The theoretical understanding of the area is low It is therefore uncertain if systems can be realized in the time frame. However, if commercial applications are developed, the prospect of military applications might change. In that case UV-communication could be a complement to RF- communication but is not foreseen to replace it. The following technologies were assessed to have negligible potential for military utility;Biomimetic unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV)Automated behaviour AnalysisEvolutionary RoboticsBiomimetic UUV’s could be used for covert surveillance and inconspicuous naval reconnaissance missions at sea or in amphibious missions. Even though the report focuses on fishlike propulsion, the military utility of UUV’s is assessed to be mostly dependent on the development of advanced automation and learning systems. As of now, we assess other existing technologies as being preferable due to lower cost and less complexity. The performance of UUV’s needed for SwAF capabilities are assessed to be far off into the future. Simpler UUV systems could however be used by potential adversaries for monitoring our own base areas and hence the development should be monitored from a protection point of view.Automated behaviour analysis may be of some relevance for increased security screening and surveillance. The primary military utility of the technology will however probably be for international activities and to a lesser extent for increased base security in Sweden. Generally the main applications for this kind of technology are assessed to be for civilian use in public spaces and close to high value areas like airports, important official buildings and other similar objects.Evolutionary Robotics, here restricted to the sub domain Advanced Robotics, has uncertain potential for military utility within the period. In the scenarios studied the technology is assessed to have a positive impact on a broad range of SwAF capabilities. The area is large and inconsistent comprising sub areas that are assessed to have significant potential, but also those that are believed to have negligible potential or where technological obstacles might retard the development.Our evaluation of the used method shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all possible aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the ten technologies’ military utility in the presented scenarios, not the technology itself. The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future.The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the trade off that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study.
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| 2. |
- Andersson, Per, et al.
(författare)
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Buying centre consequences of technological convergence
- 2001
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Ingår i: European journal of purchasing & supply management. - : Elsevier Ltd. - 0969-7012. ; 7:2, s. 121-132
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The paper discusses how technological convergence, manifested in increased mobility in organisations, changes the way purchasing organisations buy and use telecommunications and IT systems. The aim of the paper is to analyse how the implementation of mobility in firms is linked to changes in the relationships between units within the buying centre, between the buying centre and supplying organisations, and to some extent also between the buying centre and its customers. The study builds on interviews with purchasing functions in 61 small-, medium-sized and large organisations in different industries. The concept of mobility is discussed and defined. Industrial network conceptualisations, loose coupling theory and a buying centre model constitute the theoretical framework. Results indicate that management plays a more central role in the buying centre when major IT and telecom contracts are signed. The interviews also indicate few large changes in the exchange relationships with supplying organisations as a result of the implementation of new system solutions for increased mobility.
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| 3. |
- Burman, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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Slutrapport: Genomförbarhetsstudie - Lokala nät och lokal spektrumanvändning för industriella radiosystem
- 2021
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- I denna rapport sammanfattar vi utfört utredningsarbete för den studie som vi genomfört under perioden november 2020 – mars 2021 avseende lokala 5G-nät för industrin.Medverkande har varit Boliden Mineral AB, Åkerströms i Björbo AB, Post- och Telesturelsen (PTS) samt KTH. Studien har finansierats av det strategiska innovationsprogrammet Smartare elektroniksystem - en gemensam satsning av Vinnova, Formas och Energimyndigheten.Rapporten rymmer två typer av material, dels beskrivning av nuläge dels analys och slutsatser.Nulägesbeskrivningen för 5G innefattar: status för spektrumtilldelning och utbyggnad av nät i några länder samt om forskning och standardisering vad gäller lokala 5G-nät för industrin.Analysdelen består av resonemang och resultat inom fyra olika områden: i) krav och behov, ii) möjliga scenarier och alternativ för systemlösningar, iii) kort summering av centrala tekniska faktorer för lokala nät avsedda för industrin, samt iv) sammanställning av utmaningar för olika aktörer och för spektrumtilldelning.Icke-publika nät (Non-public networks, NPN) är ett globalt fenomen med stort stöd och intresse från existerande ekosystem inom industri och telekom men även från helt nya spelare från tex IT industrin. NPN drivs av industrins behov av säker och tillförlitlig uppkoppling för digitalisering och automatisering av sina processer. Idag är industrins uppkoppling främst trådbunden, alternativt så använder man sig av ”proprietära”- eller WiFi baserade system i icke-licensierade band (alternativt smala frekvensband specifikt dedicerade för olika industriprocesser). Trådbunden uppkoppling är långsiktigt inte önskvärt för industrin då det begränsar rörligheten.För tillverkare av industriell radiostyrning är slutsatsen att man långsiktigt måste förbereda sig på att migrera från punkt-till-punkt kommunikation till användning av cellulära nätverk. För att industriföretag skall kunna ta beslut om investering i cellulär teknik för uppkoppling istället för tex WiFi, krävs långsiktighet både tekniskt och affärsmässigt. Det är därför viktigt att man kan tillhandahålla frekvenser för industriellt bruk. Bandet 3,72-3,80 GHz är i många länder tilldelat för lokala tillstånd. Detta band är definierat för TDD och behöver synkroniseras med operatörernas nät samt även använda samma fördelning av trafik mellan upp-och nedlänk som dessa nät. Industrins kapacitetsbehov är främst i upplänk medan operatörsnäten främst tillhandahåller video i nedlänk. Vidare finns ett antal andra utmaningar för samexistens mellan lokala nät och operatörsnät. Det är i nuläget oklart om man via endast TDD-tillstånd i 3,5 GHz eller högre frekvensband kommer att kunna tillfredsställa alla behov inom området industriell radiostyrning och icke publika nät.Sammanfattningsvis kan vi konstatera att detta projekt har identifierat ett antal osäkerheter och utmaningar avseende lokala 5G-nät för industrin. Vår bedömning är att dessa är så stora att det i nuläget saknas underlag för att definiera ett större utvecklingsprojekt. För att kunna definiera ett relevant projekt för att utveckla och testa 5G baserad system för industriell radiostyrning behöver ytterligare underlag tas fram. Dessutom bör man även invänta beslut från PTS avseende allokering av frekvenser för industrin.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Johansson, Dan, 1964-, et al.
(författare)
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Introduktion
- 2007
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Ingår i: Erik Dahmén och det industriella företagandet. - Stockholm : Ratio. - 9789175680682 ; , s. 9-21
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 6. |
- Markendahl, Jan, et al.
(författare)
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Business innovation strategies to reduce the revenue gap for wireless broadband services
- 2009
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Ingår i: Communications & Strategies. - 0249-2571. ; :75, s. 35-55
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Mobile broadband is increasing rapidly both when it comes to traffic and number of subscriptions. The swift growth of the demand will require substantial capacity expansions. Operators are challenged by the fact that revenues from mobile roadband are limited, just a few per cent of ARPU, and thus not compensating for declining voice revenues, creating a so called "revenue gap". Concurrently, mobile broadband dominates the traffic, set to grow strongly. In this paper we analyze the potential of different strategies for operators to reduce or bridge the revenue gap. The main options are to reduce network costs, to increase access prices and to exploit new revenue streams. The focus in the paper is on cost & capacity challenges and solutions in the network domain.Operators can cooperate and share sites and spectrum, which could be combined with off-loading heavy traffic to less costly local networks. In the network analysis we illustrate the cost impacts of different levels of demand, re-use of existing base station sites, sharing of base stations and spectrum and deployment of a denser network. A sensitivity analysis illustrates the impact on total revenues if access prices are increased, whether new types of services generate additional revenues, and if it fills the revenue gap. Our conclusion is that the different technical options to reduce the revenue gap can be linked to business strategies that include cooperation with both other operators as well as with non-telecom actors. Hence, innovations in the business domain enable technical solutions to be better or fully exploited.
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| 7. |
- Markendahl, Jan, et al.
(författare)
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Business models and Investment options for use of Licensed Shared Access of Spectrum
- 2013
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- A Licensed Shared Access (LSA) “authorization/license” includes an agreement between the secondary sharing user (some type of operator) and the primary license holder (e.g. a government organization) around the conditions of use (where, when, how). Compared to secondary access LSA offers a more attractive case for long term investments. The contribution in this paper is that we look into how LSA can be used by different types of actors. The outcome depends heavily on what type of actor that makes use of the spectrum using LSA. Based on cost structure analysis (leading to required investments) and analysis of availability of the basic spectrum resource we can identify clear differences of the commercial usability of spectrum awarded using LSA, all depending on what actors that make use of the LSA contract. Cases where new actors need to invest a lot in new infrastructure do not that look that promising. We cannot identify a separate “LSA business case” that is feasible from a business perspective (where the key resource for the operator is spectrum awarded using LSA). Service availability that cannot be guaranteed due to LSA type of spectrum being the only resource seems risky, especially when combined with high investments. However this applies only for outdoor deployment. For deployment of a new indoor network the situation is different. The cost structure is the same no matter if a new or existing actor deploys the networks. In addition, a multitude of spectrum bands and spectrum access options exist indoor so the service provisioning will be less vulnerable if some part of spectrum is not available some period of time.
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| 8. |
- Markendahl, Jan, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of deployment costs and spectrum prices on the business viability of mobile broadband using TV white space
- 2012
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 2012 7th International ICST Conference on Cognitive Radio Oriented Wireless Networks and Communications, CROWNCOM 2012. - : IEEE Computer Society. - 9781936968558 ; , s. 124-128
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper we analyze the business feasibility of mobile broadband access services using secondary access of spectrum in the TV bands. We use a capacity-cost analysis considering costs for radio equipment, base station sites and radio spectrum. We compare network deployment by a market entrant and an existing mobile operator using either licensed spectrum or TV white spaces. In addition, we compare the impact of high and low spectrum prices using examples from Sweden and India. The analysis shows that market entrants will be in a more difficult position than the established actors. No matter the cost-capacity performance of cognitive radio equipment, a new operator needs to invest in a new infrastructure with sites and transmission. If the spectrum costs are "high" (like in India) the use of TW white spaces is more cost efficient for both existing operators and new operators.
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| 9. |
- Markendahl, Jan, et al.
(författare)
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Mobile Broadband Expansion Calls for More Spectrum or Base Stations : Analysis of the Value of Spectrum and the Role of Spectrum Aggregation
- 2011
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Ingår i: International Journal of Management and Network Economics. - 1754-2316 .- 1754-2324. ; 2:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper analyses the marginal value of spectrum which includes engineering and strategic value. The analysis of the engineering value shows that operators that are able to obtain more spectrum than their competitors, and pursue network sharing and spectrum aggregation have a competitive advantage as they have the lowest production cost, highest margin and highest capacity when usage takes off. The analysis of the strategic value shows that the level of offered data rates is pivotal for operators’ marketing of mobile broadband services and that network sharing in combination with spectrum aggregation has a positive impact on the strategic value. Altogether, the willingness to pay for spectrum in recent auctions has been lower than the estimated marginal value in this analysis. However, it is likely to increase when a broad range of smart mobile devices and mobile broadband are ubiquitously used as this will put unprecedented pressure on mobile networks increasing the demand for spectrum.
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| 10. |
- Markendahl, Jan, et al.
(författare)
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Network cooperation between mobile operators : why and how competitors cooperate?
- 2013
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Ingår i: IMP Conference 2103.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- After year 2000 with the introduction of third generation (3G) mobile networks a new type ofcooperation between competitors emerged, network sharing. Cost reduction is often mentionedas the main driver for network sharing. However, cost aspects are only part of the story “why”operators cooperate. In this paper we discuss multiple aspects of “why” operators cooperate andalso “how” competing mobile operators cooperate.Besides cost the “why” aspect is discussed in terms of market position, market entry andexploitation of the resources and skills of the sharing partner but also drawbacks of sharing. Thepatterns of cooperation are illustrated by analyzing how roles, responsibilities and resources canbe distributed among the mobile operators. The findings are based on case studies where wemake comparison in three different domains. In the time domain we compare network sharing inSweden the years 2000 and 2010. From a cost perspective the drivers to share networks havedecrease since many base station sites can be re-used. Anyway, new network sharing companiesare formed in order to make the network operation more efficient.We also compare cooperation between operators at the Swedish and Indian mobile markets. Inboth countries the competition is very strong. Network sharing is used but in India thecooperation is organized through tower companies, hence the operator cooperation is weak.Finally we look into network sharing principles for indoor network deployment in Sweden. Thecooperation between operators is strong but not as strong as for the network sharing jointventures. The tie between two operators can be said to be weaker since several mobile operators,the facility owner and also enterprises may be included in cooperation. In addition theinvestment risk is lower.
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