| 1. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 5. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 6. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 8. |
- Katea, Sarmad Naim
(författare)
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Carbothermal synthesis of nano-structured metal, carbides and nitrides, using solution processed precursors; from precursor to product
- 2020
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis describes how solution chemical based carbothermal syntheses can be used for the synthesis of nanostructured zirconium carbide and nitride nanophase powders as well as a nickel-metal coating on NbC for use as a sintering agent. The focus is on the development of novel synthesis routes using atomic or small nanoscale level mixing of the metal oxide and carbon source in the starting precursors, enabling the use of lower synthesis temperatures and non-agglomerated nanosized powders. Detailed characterisation of the final materials and those found during the phase-evolution were performed using TG-DTA, dilatometry, XPS, XRD, IR and Raman spectroscopy, ToF-ERDA, PIXE, SEM-EDX/EBSD/TKD, (S)TEM-EDX/HAADF/EELS and Vickers micro-hardness.Starting materials with various carbon-to-zirconia ratios, composed of 2-4 nm sized ZrO2 particles embedded in amorphous carbon, were prepared by hydrolysis of Zr(OPrn)4 and sucrose. Following heating in argon and nitrogen gas yielded nano-phase ZrC and ZrN powders, respectively. Heating in argon gas to 1495 oC, yielded ca. 75 nm sized, loosely agglomerated ZrC particles after 30 minutes annealing when using a sucrose-C:Zr ratio of 5:1. Weakly agglomerated, ca. 30-40 nm sized ZrC particles with a dense 5 nm thick shell of micro-crystalline or amorphous Zr(C,O) and surplus-carbon was obtained after 3 minutes annealing, with a sucrose-C:Zr ratios of 12-20.The same starting components and heat treatment, but with a nitrogen atmosphere, yielded well-crystallised Zr(N,C) particles centred around 40-90 nm in size, with and without a 4-6 nm Zr(N,C,O) shell; the former with 5-6 sucrose-C:Zr and the latter with 7-8 sucrose-C:Zr, together with surplus carbon. The phase-evolution was studied for the sample with sucrose-C:Zr ratio of 8:1. This showed that the nitridation started as early as at 1200 °C and that shell-less c-Zr(N,C) was obtained at 1400 °C.The other part of this thesis describes solution-based nickel metal coating of a fine NbC powder and its sintering into dense NbC-Ni composites. The coating process produced well-distributed dot-like nickel metal coatings, after heating to 500 °C. The nickel dots sizes varied from 6 to 26 nm depending on the nickel loading. Pellets of the 14 wt. % Ni coated NbC powder were sintered at temperatures up to 1500 °C with 30 minutes annealing. The main sintering step started at 1110 °C and ended at 1375 °C, whereupon a final contraction took place ending at 1500 °C. Nearly full-dense composites were obtained after heating to 1375 and 1405 °C whereas a fully dense composite was obtained after heating to 1500 °C, with 30 minutes annealing. The composites were composed of networked, interconnected NbC grains with sizes of ca. 0.5-5 µm for the 1375 and 1405 °C samples. For the corresponding sample heated to 1500 °C, with a 30 minutes annealing, the size-range was 5-30 µm. The binder phases were well-distributed and highly textured.
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| 9. |
- Leduc, Jennifer, et al.
(författare)
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Electronically-Coupled Phase Boundaries in α‑Fe2O3/Fe3O4 Nanocomposite Photoanodes for Enhanced Water Oxidation
- 2019
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Ingår i: ACS APPLIED NANO MATERIALS. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 2574-0970. ; 2:1, s. 334-342
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Photoelectrochemical (PEC) water splittingreactions are promising for sustainable hydrogen productionfrom renewable sources. We report here, the preparation of α-Fe2O3/Fe3O4 composite films via a single-step chemical vapordeposition of [Fe(OtBu)3]2 and their use as efficient photoanode materials in PEC setups. Film thickness and phase segregation was controlled by varying the deposition time and corroborated through cross-section Raman spectroscopy and scanning electron microscopy. The highest water oxidationactivity (0.48 mA/cm2 at 1.23 V vs RHE) using intermittent AM 1.5 G (100 mW/cm2) standard illumination was found forhybrid films with a thickness of 11 μm. This phenomenon is attributed to an improved electron transport resulting from ahigher magnetite content toward the substrate interface and an increased light absorption due to the hematite layer mainly located at the top surface of the film. The observed high efficiency of α-Fe2O3/Fe3O4 nanocomposite photoanodes is attributed to the close proximity and establishment of 3D interfaces between the weakly ferro- (Fe2O3) and ferrimagnetic (Fe3O4) oxides, which in view of their differential chemical constitution andvalence states of Fe ions (Fe2+/Fe3+) can enhance the charge separation and thus the overall electrical conductivity of the layer.
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| 10. |
- Li, Shanghua, 1981-
(författare)
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Fabrication of Nanostructured Materials for Energy Applications
- 2008
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- World energy crisis has triggered more attention to energy saving and energy conversion systems with high efficiency. There is a growing awareness that nanoscience and nanotechnology can have a profound impact on energy generation, conversion, and recovery. Nanotechnology-based solutions are being developed for a wide range of energy problems such as, solar electricity, hydrogen generation and storage, batteries, fuel cells, heat pumps and thermoelectrics. This thesis deals with the design and fabrication of novel functional materials/architectures for energy-related applications. The study includes two parts: Nanostructured thermoelectric (TE) materials for energy conversion and nanostructured metallic surfaces for energy heat transfer. In the first part, the focus is given to the fabrication of novel nanostructured TE materials and architectures. TE materials are very important functional materials that can convert heat to electrical energy and vice versa. Recently, nanostructuring TE materials showed very promising potential to improve their TE figure of merit which opens a new venue for the TE world. As a result, some advanced nanostructured TE architectures are proposed as the state-of-the-art TE materials/structures. Among these advanced TE architectures, bismuth telluride nanowires/thick films and skutterudite nanocomposites with nanoinclusions have been successfully fabricated and some of their advantageous TE performance has been demonstrated. For example, an improvement of 11% on the figure of merit, ZT, was achieved in the CoSb3 nanocomposite with 5 mole% ZrO2 as nanoinclusion. Comprehensive physico-chemical characterization techniques have been used for the synthesized TE materials. The potential-Seebeck microprobe, 4-point probe and laser flash apparatus have been used for the measurement of TE parameters on the TE materials. In the second part of the thesis, we developed a nanostructured macro-porous (NMp) surface for enhancing heat transfer in boiling process. Enhanced surfaces for boiling improve the energy efficiency of heat pumping equipment such as air conditioners, refrigerators, etc. Conventional techniques currently used for fabricating enhanced surfaces are often based on the use of complicated mechanical machine tools and require a large consumption of materials and give only limited enhancement of the boiling heat transfer. In this thesis, we present a new approach to fabricate enhanced surfaces by using electrodeposition under specific conditions forming in-situ dynamic gas bubble templates. As a result, the NMp metallic surface layer comprising of dendritically ordered copper branches is obtained. Since the structure is formed during the evolution of the dynamic bubbles, it is ideal for the bubble generation applications such as boiling. The efficiency of the NMp surfaces for boiling heat transfer was evaluated in pool boiling experiments. At the heat flux of 1 W/cm2, the heat transfer coefficient for the NMp surface is found to be more than 17 times higher than the reference surface. It's estimated that such an effective boiling surface would improve the energy efficiency of many heat pumping machines with 10 - 30 %. The extraordinary enhancement of boiling performance is explained by the structure characteristics, which assist in enhancing nucleation of the gas bubbles, subsequent coalescence, and facilitated departure from the surfaces.
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