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- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 2. |
- Vidal, R. M., et al.
(author)
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Colonization factors among enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli isolates from children with moderate-to-severe diarrhea and from matched controls in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS)
- 2019
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In: Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1935-2735. ; 13:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) encoding heat-stable enterotoxin (ST) alone or with heat-labile enterotoxin (LT) cause moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in developing country children. The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) identified ETEC encoding ST among the top four enteropathogens. Since the GEMS objective was to provide evidence to guide development and implementation of enteric vaccines and other interventions to diminish diarrheal disease morbidity and mortality, we examined colonization factor (CF) prevalence among ETEC isolates from children age <5 years with MSD and from matched controls in four African and three Asian sites. We also assessed strength of association of specific CFs with MSD. Methodology/Principal findings MSD cases enrolled at healthcare facilities over three years and matched controls were tested in a standardized manner for many enteropathogens. To identify ETEC, three E. coli colonies per child were tested by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to detect genes encoding LT, ST; confirmed ETEC were examined by PCR for major CFs (Colonization Factor Antigen I [CFA/I] or Coli Surface [CS] antigens CS1-CS6) and minor CFs (CS7, CS12, CS13, CS14, CS17, CS18, CS19, CS20, CS21, CS30). ETEC from 806 cases had a single toxin/CF profile in three tested strains per child. Major CFs, components of multiple ETEC vaccine candidates, were detected in 66.0% of LT/ST and ST-only cases and were associated with MSD versus matched controls by conditional logistic regression (p0.006); major CFs detected in only 25.0% of LT-only cases weren't associated with MSD. ETEC encoding exclusively CS14, identified among 19.9% of 291 ST-only and 1.5% of 259 LT/ST strains, were associated with MSD (p = 0.0011). No other minor CF exhibited prevalence 5% and significant association with MSD. Conclusions/Significance Major CF-based efficacious ETEC vaccines could potentially prevent up to 66% of pediatric MSD cases due to ST-encoding ETEC in developing countries; adding CS14 extends coverage to similar to 77%. Author summary Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) were found to be one of the four most consistently important agents that cause moderate-to-severe diarrhea among children <5 years of age in a large case-control study, the Global Enteric Multicenter Study, performed in four countries in sub-Saharan Africa and three in South Asia. ETEC attach to the lining of the human small intestine by means of protein colonization factors (CFs), after which bacterial toxins stimulate intestinal secretion resulting in diarrhea. Moderate-to-severe diarrhea in young children in developing countries can lead to malnutrition and death. Vaccines are being developed to prevent ETEC diarrhea and its consequences. Several ETEC vaccines aim to stimulate antibodies (protective proteins) that will bind CFs and prevent the bacteria from attaching to intestinal cells, which should, in turn, prevent ETEC diarrhea. Different types of CFs exist. To guide the development of vaccines intending to provide broad protection against ETEC, one must know the frequency with which the different major CFs are produced by ETEC. This paper reports an extensive systematic survey of ETEC CFs and provides helpful information to guide the development of ETEC vaccines.
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| 3. |
- de Haan, Anke, et al.
(author)
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Efficacy and moderators of efficacy of cognitive behavioural therapies with a trauma focus in children and adolescents: an individual participant data meta-analysis of randomised trials
- 2024
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In: The Lancet Child and Adolescent Health. - 2352-4642. ; 8:1, s. 28-39
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Existing clinical trials of cognitive behavioural therapies with a trauma focus (CBTs-TF) are underpowered to examine key variables that might moderate treatment effects. We aimed to determine the efficacy of CBTs-TF for young people, relative to passive and active control conditions, and elucidate putative individual-level and treatment-level moderators. Methods: This was an individual participant data meta-analysis of published and unpublished randomised studies in young people aged 6−18 years exposed to trauma. We included studies identified by the latest UK National Institute of Health and Care Excellence guidelines (completed on Jan 29, 2018) and updated their search. The search strategy included database searches restricted to publications between Jan 1, 2018, and Nov 12, 2019; grey literature search of trial registries ClinicalTrials.gov and ISRCTN; preprint archives PsyArXiv and bioRxiv; and use of social media and emails to key authors to identify any unpublished datasets. The primary outcome was post-traumatic stress symptoms after treatment (<1 month after the final session). Predominantly, one-stage random-effects models were fitted. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42019151954. Findings: We identified 38 studies; 25 studies provided individual participant data, comprising 1686 young people (mean age 13·65 years [SD 3·01]), with 802 receiving CBTs-TF and 884 a control condition. The risk-of-bias assessment indicated five studies as low risk and 20 studies with some concerns. Participants who received CBTs-TF had lower mean post-traumatic stress symptoms after treatment than those who received the control conditions, after adjusting for post-traumatic stress symptoms before treatment (b=−13·17, 95% CI −17·84 to −8·50, p<0·001, τ2=103·72). Moderation analysis indicated that this effect of CBTs-TF on post-traumatic stress symptoms post-treatment increased by 0·15 units (b=−0·15, 95% CI −0·29 to −0·01, p=0·041, τ2=0·03) for each unit increase in pre-treatment post-traumatic stress symptoms. Interpretation: This is the first individual participant data meta-analysis of young people exposed to trauma. Our findings support CBTs-TF as the first-line treatment, irrespective of age, gender, trauma characteristics, or carer involvement in treatment, with particular benefits for those with higher initial distress. Funding: Swiss National Science Foundation.
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| 5. |
- Majeed, Meytham, et al.
(author)
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Roles of calcium and annexins in phagocytosis and elimination of an attenuated strain of Mycobacterium tuberculosisin human neutrophils
- 1998
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In: Microbial Pathogenesis. - : Elsevier BV. - 0882-4010 .- 1096-1208. ; 24:5, s. 309-320
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The phagocytic function of neutrophils is a crucial element in the host defence against invading microorganisms. We investigated phagocytosis and intracellular killing of an attenuated strain of Mycobacterium tuberculosis(H37Ra) by human neutrophils focusing on the role of the cytosolic free calcium concentration [Ca2+]iand certain cytosolic calcium-dependent membrane-binding proteins annexins. Phagocytic uptake did not trigger a calcium rise and occurred independently of different calcium conditions, and in a serum-dependent manner. Changes in the viability of H37Ra were determined by agar plate colony count and a radiometric assay. Neutrophils showed a capacity to kill ingested mycobacteria and this occurred without a rise in [Ca2+]i. The ability to kill H37Ra decreased in the absence of extracellular calcium and when intra-extracellular calcium was reduced. Immunofluorescence staining revealed that during phagocytosis of H37Ra, annexins III, IV and VI translocated from cytoplasm to the proximity of the H37Ra-containing phagosomes, whereas the localization of annexin I and V remained unchanged. The translocation of annexin IV occurred even when Ca2+-depleted neutrophils ingested H37Ra in the absence of extracellular calcium. We concluded that neutrophil-mediated killing of mycobacteria is a Ca2+-dependent process. The fact that the association of certain annexins to the membrane vesicle containing H37Ra differ from other phagosomes suggests a selective regulatory mechanism during phagocytosis of mycobacteria by neutrophils.
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| 6. |
- Si, Peng, et al.
(author)
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Gold nanomaterials for optical biosensing and bioimaging
- 2021
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In: Nanoscale Advances. - : Royal Society of Chemistry. - 2516-0230. ; 3:10, s. 2679-2698
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) are highly compelling nanomaterials for biomedical studies due to their unique optical properties. By leveraging the versatile optical properties of different gold nanostructures, the performance of biosensing and biomedical imaging can be dramatically improved in terms of their sensitivity, specificity, speed, contrast, resolution and penetration depth. Here we review recent advances of optical biosensing and bioimaging techniques based on three major optical properties of AuNPs: surface plasmon resonance, surface enhanced Raman scattering and luminescence. We summarize the fabrication methods and optical properties of different types of AuNPs, highlight the emerging applications of these AuNPs for novel optical biosensors and biomedical imaging innovations, and discuss the future trends of AuNP-based optical biosensors and bioimaging as well as the challenges of implementing these techniques in preclinical and clinical investigations.
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