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- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
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A Prescriptive Approach to Elicitation of Decision Data
- 2009
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Ingår i: Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1559-8608 .- 1559-8616. ; 3:1, s. 157-168
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Most current decision analytical tools and elicitation methods are built on the assumption that decision-makers are able to make their probability and utility assessments in a proper manner. This is, however, often not the case. The specification and execution of elicitation processes are in the majority of cases left to the discretion of the users, not least in user-driven cases such as public information and e-democracy projects. A number of studies have shown, among other things, that people's natural choice behaviour deviates from normative assumptions, and that the results display an inertia gap due to differently framed prospects. One reason for the occurrence of the inertia gap is people's inability to express their preferences as single numbers. Instead of considering this as being a human error, this paper uses the gap in order to develop a class of methods more aligned to the observed behaviour. The core idea of the class is to acknowledge the existence of the gap and, as a consequence, not elicit single point numbers.
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| 3. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
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Cross-disciplinary research in analytic decision support systems
- 2006
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Ingår i: ITI 2006. - Zagreb : University Computing Centre SRCE, University of Zagreb. - 9537138054 ; , s. 123-128
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- A main problem in nearly all contexts is that unguided decision making is tremendously difficult and can lead to inefficient decision processes and undesired consequences. Therefore, decision support systems (DSSs) are of prime concern to any organization and there have been numerous approaches to such from, e.g., computational, mathematical, financial, philosophical, psychological, and sociological angles. However, a key observation is that efficient decision making is not easily performed by using methods from one discipline only. The case is rather that if real world decision making is taken seriously, several aspects must be included. This article describes some efforts of the DECIDE research group for approaching decision making and developing DSSs in a cross-disciplinary environment.
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| 4. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
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Cross-Disciplinary Research in Analytic Decision Support Systems
- 2006
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Ingår i: ITI 2006. - Zagreb : University Computing Centre SRCE, University of Zagreb. - 9537138054 ; , s. 123-128
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- A main problem in decision support contexts is that unguided decision making is difficult and can lead to inefficient decision processes and undesired consequences. Therefore, decision support systems (DSSs) are of prime concern to any organization and there have been numerous approaches to delivering decision support from, e.g., computational, mathematical, financial, philosophical, psychological, and sociological angles. A key observation, however, is that effective and efficient decision making is not easily achieved by using methods from one discipline only. This paper describes some efforts made by the DECIDE Research Group to approach DSS development and decision making tools in a cross-disciplinary way.
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| 6. |
- Påhlman, Mona, et al.
(författare)
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A study on Framing Effects in Risk Elicitation
- 2005
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Ingår i: Proceedings - International Conference on Computational Intelligence for Modelling, Control and Automation, CIMCA 2005 and International Conference on Intelligent Agents, Web Technologies and Internet. - : IEEE conference proceedings. ; , s. 689-694, s. 689-694
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Decision analysis tools are an effective way of structuring complex decision situations. However, their failure to incorporate reliable methods for elicitation is a shortcoming that needs to be dealt with. Since different elicitation methods have shown to yield different results, it is important to more thoroughly emphasize on aspects that can reduce biased results. The development of methods that explicitly recognize framing problems and aim to reduce these effects are needed. This study deals with framing problems within elicitation and how to reduce discrepancies between normative and descriptive behaviour in elicited risk data. The results indicate that the extra transitional state in one of the presentation formats, here referred to as Trade for, generated data that deviated more from normative rules when participants experienced gain prospects. On the other hand, for loss prospects the format more in line with normative rules depended on the presentation order of probabilities.
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| 7. |
- Riabacke, Ari, et al.
(författare)
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A study about different strategies in risk elicitation
- 2006
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Ingår i: Lect. Notes Eng. Comput. Sci.. - 9789889867133 ; , s. 1-6, s. 1-6
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a study focusing on deviations from normative behavior in risk elicitation. Such deviations have implications on the process of eliciting reliable input data in applications of decision analysis. No existing elicitation method seems to be universally useful based on the findings made in this study. Since people obviously do not act in accordance with the normative rules, and different choice strategies have been identified, a prescriptive approach with individual assistance of the decision makers in the elicitation process thus seems to be necessary.
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| 9. |
- Riabacke, Ari, et al.
(författare)
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Business Intelligence as Decision Support in Business Processes : An Empirical Investigation
- 2011
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Information Management and Evaluation. - Reading : Academic Publishing International. ; , s. 384-392
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Our concern in this paper is the role of business intelligence systems and the perceived business value of implemented systems and their contribution to facilitate the fulfilment of organizational goals. The study builds upon a survey answered by 43 respondents from different large companies in Scandinavia. The survey used questions on how visions, objectives, strategies are supported by BI systems, on how business values are derived from such systems, and on how design and implementation issues affect the solutions. The overall conclusion of the study is that there are markedly different levels of problems in the areas, most problems being found in integration of BI information and decision processes, and that there is room for large improvements and further work within everything from implementation to requirements engineering for business intelligence decision support systems.
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| 10. |
- Riabacke, Ari, et al.
(författare)
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Business Intelligence in Relation to Other Information Systems
- 2014
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Ingår i: Proceedings of 2014 International Conference on Advances in ICT for Emerging Regions (ICTer). - : IEEE. - 9781479977314 - 9781479977321
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Business intelligence (BI) systems are one of the major computing trends during the last ten years, in developed as well as developing countries. However, as often witnessed, the implementations are to a large extent not very successful. Our concern in this paper is the decision support role of BI systems, the perceived business value of implemented systems, and their contribution to facilitate the fulfilment of organisational goals. The study builds upon deep interviews with managers in combination with a previous quantitative survey. The survey and the interviews used three categories of questions: 1) how visions, objectives, strategies are supported by BI systems; 2) how business values are derived from such systems; and 3) how design and implementation issues affect the solutions. The overall conclusion of the study is that there are major problems in all three areas although not equally dire. What clearly emerges is that much of the problems encountered come from failing to appreciate the different nature of BI systems compared to support systems for daily operational processes. Thus, a fundamental reason for BI projects not succeeding entirely is that they are being wrongfully treated as just another kind of traditional information systems.
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