| 1. |
- Cesarini, David, et al.
(author)
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Confidence interval estimation tasks and the economics of overconfidence
- 2006
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In: Journal of economic behavior & organization. - : Elsevier B.V. - 1879-1751 .- 0167-2681. ; 61:3, s. 453-470
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We investigate the robustness of results from confidence interval estimation tasks with respect to a number of manipulations: frequency assessments, peer frequency assessments, iteration, and monetary incentives. Our results suggest that a large share of the overconfidence in interval estimation tasks is an artifact of the response format. Using frequencies and monetary incentives reduces the measured overconfidence in the confidence interval method by about 65 percent. The results are consistent with the notion that subjects have a deep aversion to setting broad confidence intervals, a reluctance that we attribute to a socially rational trade-off between informativeness and accuracy.
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| 2. |
- Johannesson, Magnus, et al.
(author)
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Genetic Variation in Financial Decision-Making
- 2010
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In: Journal of Finance. - : Wiley. - 1540-6261 .- 0022-1082. ; 65:5, s. 1725-1754
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Individuals differ in how they construct their investment portfolios, yet empirical models of portfolio risk typically account only for a small portion of the cross-sectional variance. This paper asks whether genetic variation can explain some of these individual differences. Following a major pension reform Swedish adults had to form a portfolio from a large menu of funds. We match data on these investment decisions with the Swedish Twin Registry and find that approximately 25% of individual variation in portfolio risk is due to genetic variation. We also find that these results extend to several other aspects of financial decision-making.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Sandewall, Örjan, et al.
(author)
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The co-twin methodology and returns to schooling - testing a critical assumption
- 2014
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In: Labour Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0927-5371. ; 26, s. 1-10
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Twins-based estimates of the return to schooling have featured prominently in the economics of education literature. Their unbiasedness hinges critically on the assumption that within-pair variation in schooling is explained by factors unrelated to wage earning ability. This paper develops a framework for testing this assumption and shows, in a large sample of monozygotic twins, that the twins-based estimated return to schooling falls if adolescent IQ test scores are included in the wage equation. Using birth weight as an alternative proxy for ability yields qualitatively similar results. Our results thus cast doubt on the validity of twins-based estimates. © 2013 The Authors.
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