| 1. |
|
|
| 2. |
- Kotilainen, Aarno T., et al.
(author)
-
Echoes from the Past : A Healthy Baltic Sea Requires More Effort
- 2014
-
In: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 43:1, s. 60-68
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural changes over the past 6000 years in the Baltic Sea ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems of the Baltic Sea. Integrated modeling and sediment proxy studies reveal increased sea surface temperatures and expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier natural warm climate phases, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios of global warming, there is likely no improvement of bottom water conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, the measures already designed to produce a healthier Baltic Sea are insufficient in the long term. The interactions between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the Baltic Sea should be considered in management, implementation of policy strategies in the Baltic Sea environmental issues, and adaptation to future climate change.
|
|
| 3. |
- Meier, H. E. M., et al.
(author)
-
modeling the combined impact of changing climate and changing nutrient loads on the baltic sea environment in an ensemble of transient simulations for 1961 2099
- 2012
-
In: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 39:9-10, s. 2421-2441
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The combined future impacts of climate change and industrial and agricultural practices in the Baltic Sea catchment on the Baltic Sea ecosystem were assessed. For this purpose 16 transient simulations for 1961-2099 using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea were performed. Four climate scenarios were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Annual and seasonal mean changes of climate parameters and ecological quality indicators describing the environmental status of the Baltic Sea like bottom oxygen, nutrient and phytoplankton concentrations and Secchi depths were studied. Assuming present-day nutrient concentrations in the rivers, nutrient loads from land increase during the twenty first century in all investigated scenario simulations due to increased volume flows caused by increased net precipitation in the Baltic catchment area. In addition, remineralization rates increase due to increased water temperatures causing enhanced nutrient flows from the sediments. Cause-and-effect studies suggest that both processes may play an important role for the biogeochemistry of eutrophicated seas in future climate partly counteracting nutrient load reduction efforts like the BSAP.
|
|
| 4. |
- Meier, H.E.M., et al.
(author)
-
Transient scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea Region during the 21st century
- 2011
-
Reports (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The combined future impacts of climate change and industrial and agricultural practices in the Baltic Sea catchment on the Baltic Sea ecosystem were assessed. For this purpose 16 transient simulations for 1961-2099 using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea have been performed. Four climate scenarios were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). In this study we focussed on annual and seasonal mean changes of ecological quality indicators describing the environmental status of the Baltic Sea. In correspondence with earlier studies we found that the impact of changing climate on the Baltic biogeo-chemistry might be signi cant. Assuming reference loadings the water quality in all climate scenarios is reduced at the end of the century. The impact of nutrient load reductions according to the BSAP will be less e ective in future climate compared to present climate.However, the results of the pessimistic business-as-usual scenario suggest that policy makers should act to avoid much worse environ-mental conditions than today.
|
|
