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- Nilsson-Oertman, V., et al.
(author)
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Ontogenetic changes in genetic variances of age-dependent plasticity along a latitudinal gradient
- 2015
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In: Heredity. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0018-067X .- 1365-2540. ; 115:4, s. 366-378
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The expression of phenotypic plasticity may differ among life stages of the same organism. Age-dependent plasticity can be important for adaptation to heterogeneous environments, but this has only recently been recognized. Whether age-dependent plasticity is a common outcome of local adaptation and whether populations harbor genetic variation in this respect remains largely unknown. To answer these questions, we estimated levels of additive genetic variation in age-dependent plasticity in six species of damselflies sampled from 18 populations along a latitudinal gradient spanning 3600 km. We reared full sib larvae at three temperatures and estimated genetic variances in the height and slope of thermal reaction norms of body size at three points in time during ontogeny using random regression. Our data show that most populations harbor genetic variation in growth rate (reaction norm height) in all ontogenetic stages, but only some populations and ontogenetic stages were found to harbor genetic variation in thermal plasticity (reaction norm slope). Genetic variances in reaction norm height differed among species, while genetic variances in reaction norm slope differed among populations. The slope of the ontogenetic trend in genetic variances of both reaction norm height and slope increased with latitude. We propose that differences in genetic variances reflect temporal and spatial variation in the strength and direction of natural selection on growth trajectories and age-dependent plasticity. Selection on age-dependent plasticity may depend on the interaction between temperature seasonality and time constraints associated with variation in life history traits such as generation length.
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| 2. |
- Nilsson-Örtman, Viktor, 1984-, et al.
(author)
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Latitudinally structured variation in the temperature dependence of damselfly growth rates
- 2013
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In: Ecology Letters. - : Wiley. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 16:1, s. 64-71
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Metabolic Theory of Ecology predicts that the slope of the rate-temperature relationship, E, remains consistent across traits and organisms, acting as a major determinant of large-scale ecological patterns. Although E has recently been shown to vary systematically, we have a poor understanding of its ecological significance. To address this question, we conducted a common-garden experiment involving six damselfly species differing in distribution, estimating E at the level of full-sib families. Each species was sampled throughout its latitudinal range, allowing us to characterise variation in E along a latitudinal gradient spanning 3600 km. We show that E differs among populations and increases with latitude. E was right-skewness across species, but this was largely an artefact of the latitudinal trend. Increased seasonality towards higher latitude may contribute to the latitudinal trend in E. We conclude that E should be seen as a trait involved in local adaptation.
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| 4. |
- Urban, Mark C., et al.
(author)
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When and how can we predict adaptive responses to climate change?
- 2024
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In: Evolution Letters. - : Oxford University Press. - 2056-3744. ; 8:1, s. 172-187
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Predicting if, when, and how populations can adapt to climate change constitutes one of the greatest challenges in science today. Here, we build from contributions to the special issue on evolutionary adaptation to climate change, a survey of its authors, and recent literature to explore the limits and opportunities for predicting adaptive responses to climate change. We outline what might be predictable now, in the future, and perhaps never even with our best efforts. More accurate predictions are expected for traits characterized by a well-understood mapping between genotypes and phenotypes and traits experiencing strong, direct selection due to climate change. A meta-analysis revealed an overall moderate trait heritability and evolvability in studies performed under future climate conditions but indicated no significant change between current and future climate conditions, suggesting neither more nor less genetic variation for adapting to future climates. Predicting population persistence and evolutionary rescue remains uncertain, especially for the many species without sufficient ecological data. Still, when polled, authors contributing to this special issue were relatively optimistic about our ability to predict future evolutionary responses to climate change. Predictions will improve as we expand efforts to understand diverse organisms, their ecology, and their adaptive potential. Advancements in functional genomic resources, especially their extension to non-model species and the union of evolutionary experiments and "omics," should also enhance predictions. Although predicting evolutionary responses to climate change remains challenging, even small advances will reduce the substantial uncertainties surrounding future evolutionary responses to climate change. Preventing biological impacts from climate change will require accurate predictions about which species and ecosystems are most at risk and how best to protect them. Despite some progress, most predictive efforts still omit the potential for evolution to mediate climate change impacts. Here, we evaluate what is predictable now, in the future, and likely never based on recent literature, a survey of authors, and authors' contributions to a special issue on climate change evolution. Evidence indicates a growing ability to predict at least some components underlying evolutionary dynamics. For instance, the direct effects of climate change often alter natural selection regimes that could elicit evolutionary responses assuming sufficient additive genetic variation. We found no evidence for an increase or decrease in evolvability under future climate conditions, but we did find an overall moderate level of evolvability. However, the specific genetics underlying potential adaptive changes are still a "black box" that remains difficult to predict. We not only discuss the opportunities afforded by new genomic techniques to elucidate these genetic black boxes but also caution that the costs and limitations of such techniques for many species might not warrant their general practicality. We highlight further progress and challenges in predicting gene flow and population persistence, both of which can facilitate evolutionary rescue. We finish by listing ten activities that are needed to accelerate future progress in predicting climate change evolution. Despite the many complexities, we are relatively optimistic that evolutionary responses to climate change are becoming more accurate through time, especially assuming a more focused effort to fill key knowledge gaps in the coming years.
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