| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 3. |
- Feigin, Valery L, et al.
(författare)
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Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016.
- 2018
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Ingår i: The New England journal of medicine. - 1533-4406 .- 0028-4793. ; 379:25, s. 2429-2437
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases.We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate.The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation.In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).
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| 4. |
- Tran, Dien M., et al.
(författare)
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High prevalence of colonisation with carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae among patients admitted to Vietnamese hospitals : Risk factors and burden of disease
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Infection. - : Saunders Elsevier. - 0163-4453 .- 1532-2742. ; 79:2, s. 115-122
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundCarbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) is an increasing problem worldwide, but particularly problematic in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) due to limitations of resources for surveillance of CRE and infection prevention and control (IPC).MethodsA point prevalence survey (PPS) with screening for colonisation with CRE was conducted on 2233 patients admitted to neonatal, paediatric and adult care at 12 Vietnamese hospitals located in northern, central and southern Vietnam during 2017 and 2018. CRE colonisation was determined by culturing of faecal specimens on selective agar for CRE. Risk factors for CRE colonisation were evaluated. A CRE admission and discharge screening sub-study was conducted among one of the most vulnerable patient groups; infants treated at an 80-bed Neonatal ICU from March throughout June 2017 to assess CRE acquisition, hospital-acquired infection (HAI) and treatment outcome.ResultsA total of 1165 (52%) patients were colonised with CRE, most commonly Klebsiella pneumoniae (n=805), Escherichia coli (n=682) and Enterobacter spp. (n=61). Duration of hospital stay, HAI and treatment with a carbapenem were independent risk factors for CRE colonisation. The PPS showed that the prevalence of CRE colonisation increased on average 4.2 % per day and mean CRE colonisation rates increased from 13% on the day of admission to 89% at day 15 of hospital stay. At the NICU CRE colonisation increased from 32% at admission to 87% at discharge, mortality was significantly associated (OR 5•5, P < 0•01) with CRE colonisation and HAI on admission.ConclusionThese data indicate that there is an epidemic spread of CRE in Vietnamese hospitals with rapid transmission to hospitalised patients.
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| 5. |
- Nguyen, Thanh N, et al.
(författare)
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Global Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stroke Volumes and Cerebrovascular Events: A 1-Year Follow-up.
- 2023
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Ingår i: Neurology. - 1526-632X. ; 100:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Declines in stroke admission, IV thrombolysis (IVT), and mechanical thrombectomy volumes were reported during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a paucity of data on the longer-term effect of the pandemic on stroke volumes over the course of a year and through the second wave of the pandemic. We sought to measure the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volumes of stroke admissions, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), IVT, and mechanical thrombectomy over a 1-year period at the onset of the pandemic (March 1, 2020, to February 28, 2021) compared with the immediately preceding year (March 1, 2019, to February 29, 2020).We conducted a longitudinal retrospective study across 6 continents, 56 countries, and 275 stroke centers. We collected volume data for COVID-19 admissions and 4 stroke metrics: ischemic stroke admissions, ICH admissions, IVT treatments, and mechanical thrombectomy procedures. Diagnoses were identified by their ICD-10 codes or classifications in stroke databases.There were 148,895 stroke admissions in the 1 year immediately before compared with 138,453 admissions during the 1-year pandemic, representing a 7% decline (95% CI [95% CI 7.1-6.9]; p < 0.0001). ICH volumes declined from 29,585 to 28,156 (4.8% [5.1-4.6]; p < 0.0001) and IVT volume from 24,584 to 23,077 (6.1% [6.4-5.8]; p < 0.0001). Larger declines were observed at high-volume compared with low-volume centers (all p < 0.0001). There was no significant change in mechanical thrombectomy volumes (0.7% [0.6-0.9]; p = 0.49). Stroke was diagnosed in 1.3% [1.31-1.38] of 406,792 COVID-19 hospitalizations. SARS-CoV-2 infection was present in 2.9% ([2.82-2.97], 5,656/195,539) of all stroke hospitalizations.There was a global decline and shift to lower-volume centers of stroke admission volumes, ICH volumes, and IVT volumes during the 1st year of the COVID-19 pandemic compared with the prior year. Mechanical thrombectomy volumes were preserved. These results suggest preservation in the stroke care of higher severity of disease through the first pandemic year.This study is registered under NCT04934020.
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| 6. |
- Anasontzis, George E, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Rice straw hydrolysis using secretomes from novel fungal isolates from Vietnam
- 2017
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Ingår i: Biomass and Bioenergy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1873-2909 .- 0961-9534. ; 99, s. 11-20
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- With a production of 39 million metric tons each year, rice is one of the main agricultural products of Vietnam. Thus, rice straw is a significant by-product, whose use in a biorefinery process would contribute to the bio-based transformation of the Vietnamese and South East Asian economy. In order to find novel efficient enzyme mixtures for the hydrolysis of rice straw and other agricultural residues, we took advantage of the rapidly evolving biodiversity of Vietnam and screened 1100 new fungal isolates from soil and decaying plant tissues for their CMCase activity. We selected 36 strains and evaluated them for their cellulases, xylanases, and accessory enzymes activities. Most of these isolates belonged to the genera Aspergillus and Trichoderma. We identified a few promising isolates, such as A. brunneoviolaceus FEC 156, A. niger FEC 130 and FEC 705, and A. tubingensis FEC 98, FEC 110 and FEC 644, whose produced enzyme mixtures released a mass fraction of the sugar content of alkali-treated rice straw higher than 20%, compared to 10% for Trichoderma reesei RUT C-30. We verified that the black Aspergilli are particularly efficient in their saccharification ability. We also identified strains that although they produced low amounts of cellulases and xylanases, their enzyme mixtures had high saccharification efficiencies, indicating the importance of the synergy effect, rather than the amount of enzymes available. Our results highlight the intra-species variation, especially in the Trichoderma genus, regarding the biomass degradation characteristics and the associated range of enzymatic activities.
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| 7. |
- Goodrich, H. R., et al.
(författare)
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Understanding the gastrointestinal physiology and responses to feeding in air-breathing Anabantiform fishes
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Fish Biology. - : Wiley. - 0022-1112 .- 1095-8649. ; 96:4, s. 986-1003
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Mekong Delta is host to a large number of freshwater species, including a unique group of facultative air-breathing Anabantiforms. Of these, the striped snakehead (Channa striata), the climbing perch (Anabas testudineus), the giant gourami (Osphronemus goramy) and the snakeskin gourami (Trichogaster pectoralis) are major contributors to aquaculture production in Vietnam. The gastrointestinal responses to feeding in these four species are detailed here. Relative intestinal length was lowest in the snakehead, indicating carnivory, and 5.5-fold greater in the snakeskin, indicating herbivory; climbing perch and giant gourami were intermediate, indicating omnivory. N-waste excretion (ammonia-N + urea-N) was greatest in the carnivorous snakehead and least in the herbivorous snakeskin, whereas the opposite trend was observed for net K+ excretion. Similarly, the more carnivorous species had a greater stomach acidity than the more herbivorous species. Measurements of acid-base flux to water indicated that the greatest postprandial alkaline tide occurred in the snakehead and a potential acidic tide in the snakeskin. Additional findings of interest were high levels of both PCO2 (up to 40 mmHg) and HCO3- (up to 33 mM) in the intestinal chyme of all four of these air-breathing species. Using in vitro gut sac preparations of the climbing perch, it was shown that the intestinal net absorption of fluid, Na+ and HCO3- was upregulated by feeding but not net Cl- uptake, glucose uptake or K+ secretion. Upregulated net absorption of HCO3- suggests that the high chyme (HCO3-) does not result from secretion by the intestinal epithelium. The possibility of ventilatory control of PCO2 to regulate postprandial acid-base balance in these air-breathing fish is discussed.
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| 8. |
- Lee, H. S., et al.
(författare)
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A survey of aflatoxin B \textlesssub\textgreater1\textless/sub\textgreater in maize and awareness of aflatoxins in Vietnam
- 2017
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Ingår i: World Mycotoxin Journal. - : Wageningen Academic Publishers. - 1875-0710 .- 1875-0796. ; 10:2, s. 195-202
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Vietnam is a tropical country with high temperature and precipitation, which may provide good conditions for fungal growth. A few limited studies have been conducted to evaluate the level of aflatoxin B1 in maize in Vietnam. In addition, no studies have been conducted to evaluate the perception and knowledge of aflatoxins in Vietnam. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to determine the levels of aflatoxin B1 for human and animal consumption in maize and evaluate perceptions and knowledge of aflatoxins among people across the country. A total of 2,370 samples were collected from six provinces and analysed using ELISA. Among collected samples, 799 samples (33.71%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 31.81-35.66%) and 687 samples (28.98%, 95%CI: 27.17-30.86%) had levels above 2 µg/kg and 5 µg/kg, respectively [range from below limit of detection (LOD) to 34.8 µg/kg; of the samples above LOD, the mean was 13.1 µg/kg and median was 11.2 µg/kg]. A total of 551 people were interviewed from 6 provinces. The...
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| 9. |
- Kreibich, Heidi, et al.
(författare)
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Panta Rhei benchmark dataset : Socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts
- 2023
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 15:5, s. 2009-2023
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, 10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001).
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| 10. |
- Kreibich, Heidi, et al.
(författare)
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The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 608:7921, s. 80-86
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally, yet their impacts are still increasing. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change.
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