| 1. |
- Broberg, Thomas, et al.
(author)
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An electricity market in transition : demand flexibility and preference heterogeneity
- 2015
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- In a recent report to the Swedish Energy Markets Inspectorate (Broberg et al., 2014) consumer behavior and consumer flexibility concerning energy use were analyzed. Two main conclusions were drawn. First, electricity consumption follows a regular pattern over the day, week, and year, which to a large extent reflects household living patterns and climate variations over the year. Second, the average household needs a substantial economic compensation to voluntarily reschedule its electricity use away from peak demand hours. The required compensations were found to be far higher than the economic incentives households face today when exposed to real-time pricing. In addition, it was found that households are more flexible in the use of electricity for heating than in the use of electrical appliances. Finally, households were found to be more flexible during the morning peak hours than during the evening hours. These findings led to the overall conclusion that both the possibilities and incentives are such that we cannot expect any substantial change in energy use patterns from technical reforms that creates incentives for demand response in line with the current price variation on the wholesale market for electricity.In the above-mentioned report we also analyzed people’s attitudes towards information dissemination. We concluded that many households do not wish to have their electricity use scrutinized by experts and other households. We found that people, on average, required a compensation to allow such information sharing. Again, new technologies open for various demand response policies, although it does not necessarily imply substantially higher demand flexibility. New technologies need to be combined with consumer interest to be successful in a market economy.The overall objective of the current report is to further scrutinize consumer behavior and flexibility. The first part focuses on Swedish households’ choice of electricity supplier contracts. Specifically, we analyze what types of households choose a fixed price contract. 1 The choice of contract implicitly reveals a consumer’s flexibility since a fixed price contract works as an insurance against price variation. So, by studying what type of households chose a fixed price contract we are able to infer on which type of households are relatively inflexible. This part of the analysis is policy relevant since it touches on the question of what to expect from real-time pricing reforms. A central question is whether a household who uses relatively more electricity is more likely to have a fixed price contract. If this is the case, future access to real-time pricing and a greater price variation may not be a guarantee for a substantial increase in demand response as important consumers (from a policy perspective) are more likely to insure against such circumstances. From this perspective the market for price insurances (fixed price contracts) is a market for inflexibility.While the analysis above considers the effectiveness of future energy policies to promote demand response, it is also relevant to study the question of how the peak demand problem may develop over time. This question is explicitly addressed in the current report by studying how consumer behavior varies across income levels. The existing literature suggests that electricity consumption is positively related to income, although the income elasticity 2 is fairly small. However, almost all studies concerning income effects have studied aggregate electricity use on monthly or yearly basis. The present study departs from the existing literature by studying how daily household electricity use patterns vary across income levels. This approach is novel since it allows us to analyze how the peak load problem may develop in the future as a result of higher income levels, which is commonly expected.By studying the choice of electricity contracts and by estimating hourly income elasticities, the report approach demand flexibility in an indirect way. In the third analysis of the report we address these issues again, although with a somewhat more direct approach. The choice experiment part in Broberg et al. (2014), which focused on the economic incentives needed in order to change people’s energy consumption in a predefined way, is now deepened. The focus is on how socio-economic factors such as e.g. age, gender, education and income may explain preference heterogeneity among the Swedish population. Energy related factors such as living conditions and heating systems are also considered in the analysis. This analysis will inform us about what types of households are inclined to reschedule their energy use when given relatively small economic incentives, and what household’s that are relatively inflexible and thus require large compensations to change their behavior. We also study preference heterogeneity regarding information dissemination in purpose of anonymous peer comparisons.In the final part of the report we deepen our analysis of households’ demand for information about their own and others electricity use. Besides creating incentives for demand response, new technologies included in the smart grid concept also make it possible for policy makers to use tailored information to help consumers to use energy more efficiently. A number of studies highlight inefficiencies in the households’ use of energy (see e.g. Broberg and Kazukauskas, 2014). One highlighted reality is that people seem to pay little attention to energy issues. Of course, if people pay little attention to the price of electricity, the effectiveness of policy measures that work through the pricechannel is limited. In this part of the report we address four basic questions of great relevance for energy efficiency policies worldwide. The questions are (1) What knowledge do people have about the marginal cost of electricity use in terms of everyday electrical appliances? (2) Are the cost perceptions biased and in what direction? (3) Do inattention to energy issues play a significant role in this bias? (4) Do households want information that may help them de-bias their perceptions about energy costs and use?The report is structured such that section 2 gives a brief background on the issues analyzed in the report. The following sections correspond to the issues outlined in the introduction. Section 7 works to tie the analyses together and conclude our results
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| 2. |
- Broberg, Thomas, et al.
(author)
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En elmarknad i förändring : är kundernas flexibilitet till salu eller ens verklig?
- 2014
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- I rapporten ”En elmarknad i förändring – Är kundernas flexibilitet till salu eller ens verklig?” tittar en forskargrupp vid Centrum för Miljö- och Naturresursekonomi (CERE) vid Handelshögskolan, Umeå Universitet på konsumenternas nuvarande och framtida roll på elmarknaden. Rapporten är beställd av Energimarknadsinspektionen.
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| 3. |
- Brännlund, Runar, 1957-, et al.
(author)
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Peak and off-peak demand for electricity : Is there a potential for load shifting?
- 2021
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In: Energy Economics. - : Elsevier. - 0140-9883 .- 1873-6181. ; 102
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In this paper, we explore whether there is a potential for shifting load between different times of the days, i.e., between peak and off-peak hours. In particular, we explore whether the fact that electricity is a necessity to modern life puts restrictions on the possibilities for load shifting. To do that we provide a structural framework for peak and off-peak electricity demand, where households are assumed to have Stone-Geary utility functions with subsistence levels for electricity demand that varies within the day, and that depends on household characteristics and temperature. As an empirical illustration, we fit our model to Swedish data on residential electricity usage at the sub-daily level. Our results indicate that the potential to shift load from peak to off peak is limited. One reason for this is that the subsistence levels are larger during peak than off-peak, implying that households assign a high value on electricity during peak time, relative to off-peak time. Overall, the results have important policy implications, not the least with respect to effects of real time pricing, as it suggests that there are limits to households' price responsiveness.
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| 4. |
- Dahlstedt, Magnus, et al.
(author)
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Systemet med fritt skolval måste bytas ut
- 2018
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In: Svenska Dagbladet.
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Journal article (pop. science, debate, etc.)abstract
- Ökad segregation och deprofessionalisering av läraryrket är några av effekterna av det fria skolvalet. Nu krävs en grundlig utredning med siktet inställt på att hitta alternativ till nuvarande marknadssystem, skriver ett flertal forskare.
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| 5. |
- Gustafsson, Johan, 1993-, et al.
(author)
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Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy under an energy supply shock
- 2024
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- We study the potential effects on the real economy and welfare of four fiscal policy responses to an energy supply shock: energy vouchers to all households, only to low-income households, or to non-energy goods producers, and subsidies for investments in the energy sector. The analysis relies on a DSGE model that explicitly models the energy sector. Calibrating the model to Swedish data, our results show that the subsidy for the investment in energy sector is the most effective instrument to reduce the energy price in the short- to medium term. This policy is, however, welfare dominated by energy vouchers given to households as it immediately compensates low-income, non-saving households in the event of the shock. Giving the energy voucher to the non-energy firms prevents energy prices from falling as fast as they would without policy intervention. It is also the least desirable from a welfare perspective.
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| 6. |
- Karimu, Amin, 1978-, et al.
(author)
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Understanding Hourly Electricity Demand : Implications for Load, Welfare and Emissions
- 2022
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In: Energy Journal. - : International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE). - 0195-6574 .- 1944-9089. ; 43:1, s. 161-189
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In this study, using hourly data from a representative sample of Swedish households on standard tariffs, we investigate the welfare and emission implications of moving to a mandatory dynamic pricing scheme. We allow demand during different hours of a day to affect utility differently, and account for the derived nature of electricity demand by explicitly accounting for the services (end-use demands) that drive hourly electricity demand. We use the flexible Exact Affine Stone Index (EASI) demand system, which accommodates both observed and unobserved heterogeneity in preferences, to understand changes in load consequent to hourly retail pricing. Our findings suggest that, following hourly retail pricing, changes in load patterns across hours are relatively small: total load changes by less than one percent. There are correspondingly small reductions in welfare and carbon emissions, of less than 0.2 percent and 0.47 percent, respectively. Overall, in the context of a decentralized, competitive retail electricity market-setting, our results suggest that the benefits to ensuring that the retail price of electricity reflects the hourly marginal cost is small, at least in the short run.
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| 7. |
- Kiran B. Krishnamurthy, Chandra, et al.
(author)
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Determinants of Residential end-use electricity demand : Evidence from Sweden
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Other publication (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Using a household appliance metering data set from the Swedish Energy Agency, this paper focuses on understanding the determinants of end-use electricity demand for Sweden. The focal point of the analysis is the estimation of end-use-specific income elasticity of electricity demand, for the first time for Sweden. A seemingly unrelated regression framework is used for understanding the determinants of end-use demand, with the end-uses being heating, kitchen, lighting, and residual. The main results of the analysis are: high aggregate elasticity (above 0.6), and very high income elasticity of electric heating (above 0.8). Other size-related variables (size of home, number of people) do not appear to have significant explanatory power. Overall, our analysis indicates that income is a key factor determining the demand for electricity, and to a much larger extent than usually considered
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| 8. |
- Lanot, Gauthier, et al.
(author)
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An empirical model of the decision to switch between electricity price contracts
- 2019
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In: Journal of Business Analytics. - : Taylor & Francis. - 2573-234X .- 2573-2358. ; 2:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In this paper, we explore how sensitive the timing of switches between electricity contracts is to current and past prices. We present a model for time series of individual binary decisions which depends on the history of past and present prices. The model is based on the Bayesian learning procedure which is at the core of sequential decision-making. Given a-priori distributions of the information conditional on the state of the world, we show that the model captures dependence on past prices in a straightforward fashion. We estimate by maximum likelihood the parameters of the model on a sample of Swedish households who decide over time between competing electricity price contracts. The estimated parameters suggest that households do respond to prices by switching between contracts and that the response to price can be sizeable for alternative price processes. Importantly, the model structure implies that in general, the response to a price change will not be immediate but delayed.
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| 9. |
- Lanot, Gauthier, et al.
(author)
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An empirical model of the decision to switch betweenelectricity price contracts
- 2017
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- We present a novel model for a time series of individual binary decisions which depends on the history of prices. The model is based on the Bayesian learning procedure which is at the core of sequential decision making. We show that the model capture dependence on past events and past priors in a straightforward fashion, the model capture some dependence on initial condition, here in the form of the prior at the start of the decision period, and that estimation through maximum likelihood is straightforward. We estimate the parameters of the model on a sample of Swedish households who have to decide over time between competing electricity contracts. The estimated parameters suggest that households respond to prices by switching between contracts, and that the response can be rather substantial for alternative price processes
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| 10. |
- Lanot, Gauthier, et al.
(author)
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The price elasticity of electricity demand when marginal incentives are very large
- 2020
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Using unique data on Swedish households, we measure the price elas- ticity of electricity demand for households facing a mandatory non-linear distribution tariffs where households are charged based on their maximum consumption during a month, and where the marginal incentives are very large. We estimate the price elasticity using both 2SLS and bunching esti- mators, and we find that the price elasticity is smaller than what previous literature on electricity demand have found. Furthermore, we illustrate why charging households based on maxi- mum consumption during a month leads to weak incentives in the end of the month, and discuss alternative tariff designs.
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