| 1. |
- Cherp, Aleh, et al.
(författare)
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Comparing electricity transitions : A historical analysis of nuclear, wind and solar power in Germany and Japan
- 2017
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215. ; 101, s. 612-628
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper contributes to understanding national variations in using low-carbon electricity sources by comparing the evolution of nuclear, wind and solar power in Germany and Japan. It develops and applies a framework for analyzing low-carbon electricity transitions based on interplay of techno-economic, political and socio-technical processes. We explain why in the 1970s–1980s, the energy paths of the two countries were remarkably similar, but since the 1990s Germany has become a leader in renewables while phasing out nuclear energy, whereas Japan has deployed less renewables while becoming a leader in nuclear power. We link these differences to the faster growth of electricity demand and energy insecurity in Japan, the easier diffusion of onshore wind power technology and the weakening of the nuclear power regime induced by stagnation and competition from coal and renewables in Germany. We show how these changes involve the interplay of five distinct mechanisms which may also play a role in other energy transitions.
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| 2. |
- Cherp, Aleh, et al.
(författare)
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Global energy security under different climate policies, GDP growth rates and fossil resource availabilities
- 2013
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 121:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Energy security is one of the main drivers of energy policies. Understanding energy security implications of long-term scenarios is crucial for informed policy making, especially with respect to transformations of energy systems required to stabilize climate change. This paper evaluates energy security under several global energy scenarios, modeled in the REMIND and WITCH integrated assessment models. The paper examines the effects of long-term climate policies on energy security under different assumptions about GDP growth and fossil fuel availability. It uses a systematic energy security assessment frame- work and a set of global and regional indicators for risks associated with energy trade and resilience associated with diversity of energy options. The analysis shows that climate policies significantly reduce the risks and increase the resilience of energy systems in the first half of the century. Climate policies also make energy supply, energy mix, and energy trade less dependent upon assumptions of fossil resource availability and GDP growth, and thus more predictable than in the baseline scenarios.
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| 3. |
- Cherp, Aleh, et al.
(författare)
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Integrating techno-economic, socio-technical and political perspectives on national energy transitions : A meta-theoretical framework
- 2018
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Ingår i: Energy Research and Social Science. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-6296. ; 37, s. 175-190
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Economic development, technological innovation, and policy change are especially prominent factors shaping energy transitions. Therefore explaining energy transitions requires combining insights from disciplines investigating these factors. The existing literature is not consistent in identifying these disciplines nor proposing how they can be combined. We conceptualize national energy transitions as a co-evolution of three types of systems: energy flows and markets, energy technologies, and energy-related policies. The focus on the three types of systems gives rise to three perspectives on national energy transitions: techno-economic with its roots in energy systems analysis and various domains of economics; socio-technical with its roots in sociology of technology, STS, and evolutionary economics; and political with its roots in political science. We use the three perspectives as an organizing principle to propose a meta-theoretical framework for analyzing national energy transitions. Following Elinor Ostrom's approach, the proposed framework explains national energy transitions through a nested conceptual map of variables and theories. In comparison with the existing meta-theoretical literature, the three perspectives framework elevates the role of political science since policies are likely to be increasingly prominent in shaping 21st century energy transitions.
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| 4. |
- Cherp, Aleh, et al.
(författare)
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National growth dynamics of wind and solar power compared to the growth required for global climate targets
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Energy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2058-7546. ; 6:7, s. 742-754
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate mitigation scenarios envision considerable growth of wind and solar power, but scholars disagree on how this growth compares with historical trends. Here we fit growth models to wind and solar trajectories to identify countries in which growth has already stabilized after the initial acceleration. National growth has followed S-curves to reach maximum annual rates of 0.8% (interquartile range of 0.6–1.1%) of the total electricity supply for onshore wind and 0.6% (0.4–0.9%) for solar. In comparison, one-half of 1.5 °C-compatible scenarios envision global growth of wind power above 1.3% and of solar power above 1.4%, while one-quarter of these scenarios envision global growth of solar above 3.3% per year. Replicating or exceeding the fastest national growth globally may be challenging because, so far, countries that introduced wind and solar power later have not achieved higher maximum growth rates, despite their generally speedier progression through the technology adoption cycle.
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| 5. |
- Cherp, Aleh, et al.
(författare)
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SEA and strategy formation theories: from three Ps to five Ps
- 2007
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Ingår i: Environmental Impact Assessment Review. - : Elsevier BV. - 0195-9255. ; 27:7, s. 624-644
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A transition to environmentally sustainable societies should involve a significant and comprehensive — strategic—change. Much of the promise of SEA is associated precisely with its perceived capacity to facilitate such a strategic transformation by influencing selected ‘strategic decisions’. This paper examines the potential effectiveness and limitations of such an approach in light of contemporary organizational strategy theories. Most of these theories separate ‘strategies’ from ‘decisions’ and also transcend the notion of strategies as formal plans, policies and programs (PPPs). Instead, they consider strategies as “five Ps”, adding “Position”, “Perspective”, “Pattern” and “Ploy” to the “Plan”. Lessons from organizational strategy formation give rise to the following challenges for SEA theory and practice: 1. How to assess and influence informal as well as formal aspects of strategic initiatives? 2. How to extend SEA ‘beyond decisions’ to address ‘emergent strategies’ where strategic action is not necessarily preceded by a decision? 3. How to ensure that knowledge provided as a result of SEA is strategically relevant and communicated to key players in strategy formation? 4. How to deal with an uncontrollable and unpredictable environment in which strategic initiatives unfold? 5. How to recognize those situations when SEA can have most strategic influence? This paper takes a step towards examining these challenges by exploring the intellectual history of SEA in light of the main strategy formation theories and by identifying directions in which the SEA discourse may be further enhanced to meet these five challenges.
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| 6. |
- Jewell, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
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Comparison and interactions between the long-term pursuit of energy independence and climate policies
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature Energy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2058-7546. ; 1:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ensuring energy security and mitigating climate change are key energy policy priorities. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group III report emphasized that climate policies can deliver energy security as a co-benefit, in large part through reducing energy imports. Here, using five state-of-the-art global energy-economy models and eight long-term scenarios, we show that while deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions would indeed reduce energy imports, the reverse is not true: ambitious policies constraining energy imports would have only an insignificant impact on climate change. Restricting imports of all fuels would lower twenty-first-century emissions by only 2%–15% against the Baseline scenario as compared with a 70% reduction in the 450 scenario. Restricting only oil imports would have virtually no impact on emissions. The modelled energy independence targets could be achieved at policy costs comparable to those of existing climate pledges but a fraction of the cost of limiting global warming to 2 ◦ C.
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| 7. |
- Jewell, Jessica, 1982, et al.
(författare)
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Prospects for powering past coal
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-6798 .- 1758-678X. ; 9:8, s. 592-597
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To keep global warming within 1.5 °C of pre-industrial levels, there needs to be a substantial decline in the use of coal power by 20301,2 and in most scenarios, complete cessation by 2050. The members of the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA), launched in 2017 at the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, are committed to “phasing out existing unabated coal power generation and a moratorium on new coal power gen- eration without operational carbon capture and storage”. The alliance has been hailed as a ‘political watershed’ and a new ‘anti-fossil fuel norm’. Here we estimate that the premature retirement of power plants pledged by PPCA members would cut emissions by 1.6 GtCO2, which is 150 times less than globally committed emissions from existing coal power plants. We also investigated the prospect of major coal consumers join- ing the PPCA by systematically comparing members to non- members. PPCA members extract and use less coal and have older power plants, but this alone does not fully explain their pledges to phase out coal power. The members of the alliance are also wealthier and have more transparent and indepen- dent governments. Thus, what sets them aside from major coal consumers, such as China and India, are both lower costs of coal phase-out and a higher capacity to bear these costs.
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| 8. |
- Jewell, Jessica, 1982, et al.
(författare)
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Reply to: Why fossil fuel producer subsidies matter
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 578:7793, s. E5-E7
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 9. |
- Nacke, Lola, 1994, et al.
(författare)
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Compensating affected parties necessary for rapid coal phase-out but expensive if extended to major emitters
- 2024
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - 2041-1723 .- 2041-1723. ; 15:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Coal power phase-out is critical for climate mitigation, yet it harms workers, companies, and coal-dependent regions. We find that more than half of countries that pledge coal phase-out have “just transition” policies which compensate these actors. Compensation is larger in countries with more ambitious coal phase-out pledges and most commonly directed to national and regional governments or companies, with a small share going directly to workers. Globally, compensation amounts to over $200 billion (uncertainty 163-258), about half of which is funded through international schemes, mostly through Just Energy Transition Partnerships and the European Union Just Transition Fund. If similar transfers are extended to China and India to phase out coal in line with the Paris temperature targets, compensation flows could become larger than current international climate financing. Our findings highlight that the socio-political acceptance of coal phase-out has a tangible economic component which should be factored into assessing the feasibility of achieving climate targets.
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| 10. |
- Vinichenko, Vadim, 1967, et al.
(författare)
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Historical diffusion of nuclear, wind and solar power in different national contexts: implications for climate mitigation pathways
- 2023
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - 1748-9326 .- 1748-9318. ; 18:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change mitigation requires rapid expansion of low-carbon electricity but there is a disagreement on whether available technologies such as renewables and nuclear power can be scaled up sufficiently fast. Here we analyze the diffusion of nuclear (from the 1960s), as well as wind and solar (from the 1980-90s) power. We show that all these technologies have been adopted in most large economies except major energy exporters, but solar and wind have diffused across countries faster and wider than nuclear. After the initial adoption, the maximum annual growth for nuclear power has been 2.6% of national electricity supply (IQR 1.3%-6%), for wind - 1.1% (0.6%-1.7%), and for solar - 0.8% (0.5%-1.3%). The fastest growth of nuclear power occurred in Western Europe in the 1980s, a response by industrialized democracies to the energy supply crises of the 1970s. The European Union (EU), currently experiencing a similar energy supply shock, is planning to expand wind and solar at similarly fast rates. This illustrates that national contexts can impact the speed of technology diffusion at least as much as technology characteristics like cost, granularity, and complexity. In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change mitigation pathways, renewables grow much faster than nuclear due to their lower projected costs, though empirical evidence does not show that the cost is the sole factor determining the speed of diffusion. We demonstrate that expanding low-carbon electricity in Asia in line with the 1.5 & DEG;C target requires growth of nuclear power even if renewables increase as fast as in the most ambitious EU's plans. 2 & DEG;C-consistent pathways in Asia are compatible with replicating China's nuclear power plans in the whole region, while simultaneously expanding renewables as fast as in the near-term projections for the EU. Our analysis demonstrates the usefulness of empirically-benchmarked feasibility spaces for future technology projections.
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