| 1. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
-
Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
|
|
| 2. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
|
|
| 3. |
- Ching, Tao-Chung, et al.
(författare)
-
The JCMT BISTRO-2 Survey: Magnetic Fields of the Massive DR21 Filament
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 941:2
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present 850 mu m dust polarization observations of the massive DR21 filament from the B-fields In STar-forming Region Observations (BISTRO) survey, using the POL-2 polarimeter and the SCUBA-2 camera on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope. We detect ordered magnetic fields perpendicular to the parsec-scale ridge of the DR21 main filament. In the subfilaments, the magnetic fields are mainly parallel to the filamentary structures and smoothly connect to the magnetic fields of the main filament. We compare the POL-2 and Planck dust polarization observations to study the magnetic field structures of the DR21 filament on 0.1-10 pc scales. The magnetic fields revealed in the Planck data are well-aligned with those of the POL-2 data, indicating a smooth variation of magnetic fields from large to small scales. The plane-of-sky magnetic field strengths derived from angular dispersion functions of dust polarization are 0.6-1.0 mG in the DR21 filament and similar to 0.1 mG in the surrounding ambient gas. The mass-to-flux ratios are found to be magnetically supercritical in the filament and slightly subcritical to nearly critical in the ambient gas. The alignment between column density structures and magnetic fields changes from random alignment in the low-density ambient gas probed by Planck to mostly perpendicular in the high-density main filament probed by James Clerk Maxwell Telescope. The magnetic field structures of the DR21 filament are in agreement with MHD simulations of a strongly magnetized medium, suggesting that magnetic fields play an important role in shaping the DR21 main filament and subfilaments.
|
|
| 4. |
- Essén, Anna, et al.
(författare)
-
Health app policy: international comparison of nine countries' approaches
- 2022
-
Ingår i: npj Digital Medicine. - : Springer Nature. - 2398-6352 .- 2398-6352. ; 5:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An abundant and growing supply of digital health applications (apps) exists in the commercial tech-sector, which can be bewildering for clinicians, patients, and payers. A growing challenge for the health care system is therefore to facilitate the identification of safe and effective apps for health care practitioners and patients to generate the most health benefit as well as guide payer coverage decisions. Nearly all developed countries are attempting to define policy frameworks to improve decision-making, patient care, and health outcomes in this context. This study compares the national policy approaches currently in development/use for health apps in nine countries. We used secondary data, combined with a detailed review of policy and regulatory documents, and interviews with key individuals and experts in the field of digital health policy to collect data about implemented and planned policies and initiatives. We found that most approaches aim for centralized pipelines for health app approvals, although some countries are adding decentralized elements. While the countries studied are taking diverse paths, there is nevertheless broad, international convergence in terms of requirements in the areas of transparency, health content, interoperability, and privacy and security. The sheer number of apps on the market in most countries represents a challenge for clinicians and patients. Our analyses of the relevant policies identified challenges in areas such as reimbursement, safety, and privacy and suggest that more regulatory work is needed in the areas of operationalization, implementation and international transferability of approvals. Cross-national efforts are needed around regulation and for countries to realize the benefits of these technologies.
|
|
| 5. |
- Hargreaves, Dougal S., et al.
(författare)
-
Comparison of health care experience and access between young and older adults in 11 high-income countries
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Journal of Adolescent Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 1054-139X. ; 57:4, s. 413-420
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose Young adults (18–24 years) frequently report poorer health care access and experience than older adults. We aimed to investigate how differences between young and older adults vary across 11 high-income countries. Methods A total of 20,045 participants from 11 high-income countries (i.e., Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States) participating in the Commonwealth Fund 2013 International Health Policy Survey. We compared young adults (18–24 years) with older adults (25–34; 35–49; 50–64; 65+ years) on three aspects of health care: overall satisfaction, cost barriers to access, and four indicators of consultation quality relating to adequate information, time, involvement, and explanation. Results Across all participants, young adults reported significantly worse overall satisfaction (63.6% vs. 70.3%; p < .001) and more frequent cost barriers (21.3% vs. 15.2%; p < .001) than older adults. Country-level analyses showed that young adults reported lower overall satisfaction than older adults in five of 11 countries (Australia, Canada, Norway, Switzerland, United States) and more frequent cost barriers in six of 11 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Switzerland, Norway, United States). In five countries (Australia, Canada, France, Norway, Switzerland), most patient experience indicators were less positive among young adults than those among older adults. In three countries (Netherlands, New Zealand, United Kingdom), there was no significant difference between young and older adults on any indicator. Conclusions Associations between age and health care access/experience varied markedly between countries, suggesting that poor access and experience among young adults is not inevitable and may be amenable to policy/practice interventions.
|
|
| 6. |
- Jombart, Thibaut, et al.
(författare)
-
Real-time monitoring of COVID-19 dynamics using automated trend fitting and anomaly detection
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8436 .- 1471-2970. ; 376:1829
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As several countries gradually release social distancing measures, rapid detection of new localized COVID-19 hotspots and subsequent intervention will be key to avoiding large-scale resurgence of transmission. We introduce ASMODEE (automatic selection of models and outlier detection for epidemics), a new tool for detecting sudden changes in COVID-19 incidence. Our approach relies on automatically selecting the best (fitting or predicting) model from a range of user-defined time series models, excluding the most recent data points, to characterize the main trend in an incidence. We then derive prediction intervals and classify data points outside this interval as outliers, which provides an objective criterion for identifying departures from previous trends. We also provide a method for selecting the optimal breakpoints, used to define how many recent data points are to be excluded from the trend fitting procedure. The analysis of simulated COVID-19 outbreaks suggests ASMODEE compares favourably with a state-of-art outbreak-detection algorithm while being simpler and more flexible. As such, our method could be of wider use for infectious disease surveillance. We illustrate ASMODEE using publicly available data of National Health Service (NHS) Pathways reporting potential COVID-19 cases in England at a fine spatial scale, showing that the method would have enabled the early detection of the flare-ups in Leicester and Blackburn with Darwen, two to three weeks before their respective lockdown. ASMODEE is implemented in the free R package trendbreaker.
|
|
| 7. |
- Karoly, Janik, et al.
(författare)
-
The JCMT BISTRO Survey: Studying the Complex Magnetic Field of L43
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 952:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present observations of polarized dust emission at 850 mu m from the L43 molecular cloud, which sits in the Ophiuchus cloud complex. The data were taken using SCUBA-2/POL-2 on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope as a part of the BISTRO large program. L43 is a dense (N-H2 similar to 10(22) - 10(23) cm(-2)) complex molecular cloud with a submillimeter-bright starless core and two protostellar sources. There appears to be an evolutionary gradient along the isolated filament that L43 is embedded within, with the most evolved source closest to the Sco OB2 association. One of the protostars drives a CO outflow that has created a cavity to the southeast. We see a magnetic field that appears to be aligned with the cavity walls of the outflow, suggesting interaction with the outflow. We also find a magnetic field strength of up to similar to 160 +/- 30 mu G in the main starless core and up to similar to 90 +/- 40 mu G in the more diffuse, extended region. These field strengths give magnetically super- and subcritical values, respectively, and both are found to be roughly trans-Alfvenic. We also present a new method of data reduction for these denser but fainter objects like starless cores.
|
|
| 8. |
- Kwon, Woojin, et al.
(författare)
-
B-fields in Star-forming Region Observations (BISTRO): Magnetic Fields in the Filamentary Structures of Serpens Main
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 926:2
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present 850 mu m polarimetric observations toward the Serpens Main molecular cloud obtained using the POL-2 polarimeter on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope as part of the B-fields In STar-forming Region Observations survey. These observations probe the magnetic field morphology of the Serpens Main molecular cloud on about 6000 au scales, which consists of cores and six filaments with different physical properties such as density and star formation activity. Using the histogram of relative orientation (HRO) technique, we find that magnetic fields are parallel to filaments in less-dense filamentary structures where NH2 < 0.93 x 10(22) cm(-2) (magnetic fields perpendicular to density gradients), while they are perpendicular to filaments (magnetic fields parallel to density gradients) in dense filamentary structures with star formation activity. Moreover, applying the HRO technique to denser core regions, we find that magnetic field orientations change to become perpendicular to density gradients again at NH2 approximate to 4.6 x 10(22) NH2 approximate to 16 x 10(22) cm(-2), magnetic fields change back to being parallel to density gradients once again, which can be understood to be due to magnetic fields being dragged in by infalling material. In addition, we estimate the magnetic field strengths of the filaments (B-POS = 60-300 mu G)) using the Davis-Chandrasekhar-Fermi method and discuss whether the filaments are gravitationally unstable based on magnetic field and turbulence energy densities.
|
|
| 9. |
- Lyo, A-Ran, et al.
(författare)
-
The JCMT BISTRO Survey: An 850/450 mu m Polarization Study of NGC 2071IR in Orion B
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 918:2
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the results of simultaneous 450 mu m and 850 mu m polarization observations toward the massive star-forming region NGC 2071IR, a target of the BISTRO (B-fields in STar-forming Region Observations) Survey, using the POL-2 polarimeter and SCUBA-2 camera mounted on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope. We find a pinched magnetic field morphology in the central dense core region, which could be due to a rotating toroidal disklike structure and a bipolar outflow originating from the central young stellar object IRS 3. Using the modified Davis-Chandrasekhar-Fermi method, we obtain a plane-of-sky magnetic field strength of 563 +/- 421 mu G in the central similar to 0.12 pc region from 850 mu m polarization data. The corresponding magnetic energy density of 2.04 x 10(-8) erg cm(-3) is comparable to the turbulent and gravitational energy densities in the region. We find that the magnetic field direction is very well aligned with the whole of the IRS 3 bipolar outflow structure. We find that the median value of polarization fractions is 3.0% at 450 mu m in the central 3 ' region, which is larger than the median value of 1.2% at 850 mu m. The trend could be due to the better alignment of warmer dust in the strong radiation environment. We also find that polarization fractions decrease with intensity at both wavelengths, with slopes, determined by fitting a Rician noise model of 0.59 +/- 0.03 at 450 mu m and 0.36 +/- 0.04 at 850 mu m, respectively. We think that the shallow slope at 850 mu m is due to grain alignment at the center being assisted by strong radiation from the central young stellar objects.
|
|
| 10. |
|
|
