| 1. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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- 2013
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - 1079-7114 .- 0031-9007. ; 110:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 7. |
- Dornelas, M., et al.
(författare)
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BioTIME: A database of biodiversity time series for the Anthropocene
- 2018
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Ingår i: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 27:7, s. 760-786
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Motivation: The BioTIME database contains raw data on species identities and abundances in ecological assemblages through time. These data enable users to calculate temporal trends in biodiversity within and amongst assemblages using a broad range of metrics. BioTIME is being developed as a community-led open-source database of biodiversity time series. Our goal is to accelerate and facilitate quantitative analysis of temporal patterns of biodiversity in the Anthropocene. Main types of variables included: The database contains 8,777,413 species abundance records, from assemblages consistently sampled for a minimum of 2 years, which need not necessarily be consecutive. In addition, the database contains metadata relating to sampling methodology and contextual information about each record. Spatial location and grain: BioTIME is a global database of 547,161 unique sampling locations spanning the marine, freshwater and terrestrial realms. Grain size varies across datasets from 0.0000000158 km(2) (158 cm(2)) to 100 km(2) (1,000,000,000,000 cm(2)). Time period and grainBio: TIME records span from 1874 to 2016. The minimal temporal grain across all datasets in BioTIME is a year. Major taxa and level of measurement: BioTIME includes data from 44,440 species across the plant and animal kingdoms, ranging from plants, plankton and terrestrial invertebrates to small and large vertebrates.
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| 8. |
- Santangelo, James S., et al.
(författare)
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Global urban environmental change drives adaptation in white clover
- 2022
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 375
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Urbanization transforms environments in ways that alter biological evolution. We examined whether urban environmental change drives parallel evolution by sampling 110,019 white clover plants from 6169 populations in 160 cities globally. Plants were assayed for a Mendelian antiherbivore defense that also affects tolerance to abiotic stressors. Urban-rural gradients were associated with the evolution of clines in defense in 47% of cities throughout the world. Variation in the strength of clines was explained by environmental changes in drought stress and vegetation cover that varied among cities. Sequencing 2074 genomes from 26 cities revealed that the evolution of urban-rural dines was best explained by adaptive evolution, but the degree of parallel adaptation varied among cities. Our results demonstrate that urbanization leads to adaptation at a global scale.
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| 9. |
- Thomas, H. J. D., et al.
(författare)
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Global plant trait relationships extend to the climatic extremes of the tundra biome
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2041-1723. ; 11:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The majority of variation in six traits critical to the growth, survival and reproduction of plant species is thought to be organised along just two dimensions, corresponding to strategies of plant size and resource acquisition. However, it is unknown whether global plant trait relationships extend to climatic extremes, and if these interspecific relationships are confounded by trait variation within species. We test whether trait relationships extend to the cold extremes of life on Earth using the largest database of tundra plant traits yet compiled. We show that tundra plants demonstrate remarkably similar resource economic traits, but not size traits, compared to global distributions, and exhibit the same two dimensions of trait variation. Three quarters of trait variation occurs among species, mirroring global estimates of interspecific trait variation. Plant trait relationships are thus generalizable to the edge of global trait-space, informing prediction of plant community change in a warming world.
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| 10. |
- Criado, M. G., et al.
(författare)
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Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - 2041-1723. ; 14:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces. Functional trait data could guide predictions of species responses to environmental change. Here, the authors show that winner and loser shrub species in the warming tundra biome overlap in trait space and may therefore be difficult to predict based on commonly measured traits.
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| 11. |
- Margutti, R., et al.
(författare)
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A PANCHROMATIC VIEW OF THE RESTLESS SN 2009ip REVEALS THE EXPLOSIVE EJECTION OF A MASSIVE STAR ENVELOPE
- 2014
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 780:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The double explosion of SN 2009ip in 2012 raises questions about our understanding of the late stages of massive star evolution. Here we present a comprehensive study of SN 2009ip during its remarkable rebrightenings. High-cadence photometric and spectroscopic observations from the GeV to the radio band obtained from a variety of ground-based and space facilities (including the Very Large Array, Swift, Fermi, Hubble Space Telescope, and XMM) constrain SN 2009ip to be a low energy (E similar to 1050 erg for an ejecta mass similar to 0.5 M-circle dot) and asymmetric explosion in a complex medium shaped by multiple eruptions of the restless progenitor star. Most of the energy is radiated as a result of the shock breaking out through a dense shell of material located at similar to 5 x 10(14) cm with M similar to 0.1 M-circle dot, ejected by the precursor outburst similar to 40 days before the major explosion. We interpret the NIR excess of emission as signature of material located further out, the origin of which has to be connected with documented mass-loss episodes in the previous years. Our modeling predicts bright neutrino emission associated with the shock break-out if the cosmic-ray energy is comparable to the radiated energy. We connect this phenomenology with the explosive ejection of the outer layers of the massive progenitor star, which later interacted with material deposited in the surroundings by previous eruptions. Future observations will reveal if the massive luminous progenitor star survived. Irrespective of whether the explosion was terminal, SN 2009ip brought to light the existence of new channels for sustained episodic mass loss, the physical origin of which has yet to be identified.
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
- Prevey, J., et al.
(författare)
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Greater temperature sensitivity of plant phenology at colder sites: implications for convergence across northern latitudes
- 2017
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 23:7, s. 2660-2671
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Warmer temperatures are accelerating the phenology of organisms around the world. Temperature sensitivity of phenology might be greater in colder, higher latitude sites than in warmer regions, in part because small changes in temperature constitute greater relative changes in thermal balance at colder sites. To test this hypothesis, we examined up to 20 years of phenology data for 47 tundra plant species at 18 high-latitude sites along a climatic gradient. Across all species, the timing of leaf emergence and flowering was more sensitive to a given increase in summer temperature at colder than warmer high-latitude locations. A similar pattern was seen over time for the flowering phenology of a widespread species, Cassiope tetragona. These are among the first results highlighting differential phenological responses of plants across a climatic gradient and suggest the possibility of convergence in flowering times and therefore an increase in gene flow across latitudes as the climate warms.
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| 14. |
- Prevey, J. S., et al.
(författare)
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Warming shortens flowering seasons of tundra plant communities
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Ecology & Evolution. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-334X. ; 3:1, s. 45-52
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Advancing phenology is one of the most visible effects of climate change on plant communities, and has been especially pronounced in temperature-limited tundra ecosystems. However, phenological responses have been shown to differ greatly between species, with some species shifting phenology more than others. We analysed a database of 42,689 tundra plant phenological observations to show that warmer temperatures are leading to a contraction of community-level flowering seasons in tundra ecosystems due to a greater advancement in the flowering times of late-flowering species than early-flowering species. Shorter flowering seasons with a changing climate have the potential to alter trophic interactions in tundra ecosystems. Interestingly, these findings differ from those of warmer ecosystems, where early-flowering species have been found to be more sensitive to temperature change, suggesting that community-level phenological responses to warming can vary greatly between biomes.
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
- Thomas, H. J.D., et al.
(författare)
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Traditional plant functional groups explain variation in economic but not size-related traits across the tundra biome
- 2019
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Ingår i: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 28:2, s. 78-95
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2018 The Authors Global Ecology and Biogeography Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd Aim: Plant functional groups are widely used in community ecology and earth system modelling to describe trait variation within and across plant communities. However, this approach rests on the assumption that functional groups explain a large proportion of trait variation among species. We test whether four commonly used plant functional groups represent variation in six ecologically important plant traits. Location: Tundra biome. Time period: Data collected between 1964 and 2016. Major taxa studied: 295 tundra vascular plant species. Methods: We compiled a database of six plant traits (plant height, leaf area, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf nitrogen, seed mass) for tundra species. We examined the variation in species-level trait expression explained by four traditional functional groups (evergreen shrubs, deciduous shrubs, graminoids, forbs), and whether variation explained was dependent upon the traits included in analysis. We further compared the explanatory power and species composition of functional groups to alternative classifications generated using post hoc clustering of species-level traits. Results: Traditional functional groups explained significant differences in trait expression, particularly amongst traits associated with resource economics, which were consistent across sites and at the biome scale. However, functional groups explained 19% of overall trait variation and poorly represented differences in traits associated with plant size. Post hoc classification of species did not correspond well with traditional functional groups, and explained twice as much variation in species-level trait expression. Main conclusions: Traditional functional groups only coarsely represent variation in well-measured traits within tundra plant communities, and better explain resource economic traits than size-related traits. We recommend caution when using functional group approaches to predict tundra ecosystem change, or ecosystem functions relating to plant size, such as albedo or carbon storage. We argue that alternative classifications or direct use of specific plant traits could provide new insight into ecological prediction and modelling.
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| 17. |
- Clark, Andrew G., et al.
(författare)
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Evolution of genes and genomes on the Drosophila phylogeny
- 2007
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 450:7167, s. 203-218
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Comparative analysis of multiple genomes in a phylogenetic framework dramatically improves the precision and sensitivity of evolutionary inference, producing more robust results than single-genome analyses can provide. The genomes of 12 Drosophila species, ten of which are presented here for the first time (sechellia, simulans, yakuba, erecta, ananassae, persimilis, willistoni, mojavensis, virilis and grimshawi), illustrate how rates and patterns of sequence divergence across taxa can illuminate evolutionary processes on a genomic scale. These genome sequences augment the formidable genetic tools that have made Drosophila melanogaster a pre-eminent model for animal genetics, and will further catalyse fundamental research on mechanisms of development, cell biology, genetics, disease, neurobiology, behaviour, physiology and evolution. Despite remarkable similarities among these Drosophila species, we identified many putatively non-neutral changes in protein-coding genes, non-coding RNA genes, and cis-regulatory regions. These may prove to underlie differences in the ecology and behaviour of these diverse species.
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| 18. |
- Levesque, E. M., et al.
(författare)
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THE HIGH-METALLICITY EXPLOSION ENVIRONMENT OF THE RELATIVISTIC SUPERNOVA 2009bb
- 2010
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Ingår i: The Astrophysical Journal Letters. - 2041-8205. ; 709:1, s. l26-L31
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We investigate the environment of the nearby (d approximate to 40 Mpc) broad-lined Type Ic supernova (SN) 2009bb. This event was observed to produce a relativistic outflow likely powered by a central accreting compact object. While such a phenomenon was previously observed only in long-duration gamma-ray bursts (LGRBs), no LGRB was detected in association with SN 2009bb. Using an optical spectrum of the SN 2009bb explosion site, we determine a variety of interstellar medium properties for the host environment, including metallicity, young stellar population age, and star formation rate. We compare the SN explosion site properties to observations of LGRB and broad-lined SN Ic host environments on optical emission line ratio diagnostic diagrams. Based on these analyses, we find that the SN 2009bb explosion site has a metallicity between 1.7 Z(circle dot) and 3.5 Z(circle dot), in agreement with other broad-lined SN Ic host environments and at odds with the low-redshift LGRB host environments and recently proposed maximum metallicity limits for relativistic explosions. We consider the implications of these findings and the impact that SN 2009bb's unusual explosive properties and environment have on our understanding of the key physical ingredient that enables some SNe to produce a relativistic outflow.
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| 19. |
- Soderberg, A. M., et al.
(författare)
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PANCHROMATIC OBSERVATIONS OF SN 2011dh POINT TO A COMPACT PROGENITOR STAR
- 2012
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 752:2, s. 78-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report the discovery and detailed monitoring of X-ray emission associated with the Type IIb SN 2011dh using data from the Swift and Chandra satellites, placing it among the best-studied X-ray supernovae (SNe) to date. We further present millimeter and radio data obtained with the Submillimeter Array, the Combined Array for Research in Millimeter-wave Astronomy, and the Expanded Very Large Array during the first three weeks after explosion. Combining these observations with early optical photometry, we show that the panchromatic data set is well described by non-thermal synchrotron emission (radio/mm) with inverse Compton scattering (X-ray) of a thermal population of optical photons. In this scenario, the shock partition fractions deviate from equipartition by a factor, (epsilon(e)/epsilon(B)) similar to 30. We derive the properties of the shock wave and the circumstellar environment and find a time-averaged shock velocity of (v) over bar approximate to 0.1c and a progenitor mass-loss rate of (M) over dot approximate to 6x10(-5) M-circle dot yr(-1) (for an assumed wind velocity, v(w) = 1000 km s(-1)). We show that these properties are consistent with the sub-class of Type IIb SNe characterized by compact progenitors (Type cIIb) and dissimilar from those with extended progenitors (Type eIIb). Furthermore, we consider the early optical emission in the context of a cooling envelope model to estimate a progenitor radius of R-* approximate to 10(11) cm, in line with the expectations for a Type cIIb SN. Together, these diagnostics are difficult to reconcile with the extended radius of the putative yellow supergiant progenitor star identified in archival Hubble Space Telescope observations, unless the stellar density profile is unusual. Finally, we searched for the high-energy shock breakout pulse using X-ray and gamma-ray observations obtained during the purported explosion date range. Based on the compact radius of the progenitor, we estimate that the shock breakout pulse was detectable with current instruments but likely missed due to their limited temporal/spatial coverage. Future all-sky missions will regularly detect shock breakout emission from compact SN progenitors enabling prompt follow-up observations with sensitive multi-wavelength facilities.
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| 20. |
- Watt, F. E., et al.
(författare)
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Towards prevention of post-traumatic osteoarthritis : report from an international expert working group on considerations for the design and conduct of interventional studies following acute knee injury
- 2019
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Ingår i: Osteoarthritis and Cartilage. - : Elsevier BV. - 1063-4584. ; 27:1, s. 23-33
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: There are few guidelines for clinical trials of interventions for prevention of post-traumatic osteoarthritis (PTOA), reflecting challenges in this area. An international multi-disciplinary expert group including patients was convened to generate points to consider for the design and conduct of interventional studies following acute knee injury. Design: An evidence review on acute knee injury interventional studies to prevent PTOA was presented to the group, alongside overviews of challenges in this area, including potential targets, biomarkers and imaging. Working groups considered pre-identified key areas: eligibility criteria and outcomes, biomarkers, injury definition and intervention timing including multi-modality interventions. Consensus agreement within the group on points to consider was generated and is reported here after iterative review by all contributors. Results: The evidence review identified 37 studies. Study duration and outcomes varied widely and 70% examined surgical interventions. Considerations were grouped into three areas: justification of inclusion criteria including the classification of injury and participant age (as people over 35 may have pre-existing OA); careful consideration in the selection and timing of outcomes or biomarkers; definition of the intervention(s)/comparator(s) and the appropriate time-window for intervention (considerations may be particular to intervention type). Areas for further research included demonstrating the utility of patient-reported outcomes, biomarkers and imaging outcomes from ancillary/cohort studies in this area, and development of surrogate clinical trial endpoints that shorten the duration of clinical trials and are acceptable to regulatory agencies. Conclusions: These considerations represent the first international consensus on the conduct of interventional studies following acute knee joint trauma.
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| 21. |
- Barrio, I. C., et al.
(författare)
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Biotic interactions mediate patterns of herbivore diversity in the Arctic
- 2016
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Ingår i: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 25:9, s. 1108-1118
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim: Understanding the forces shaping biodiversity patterns, particularly for groups of organisms with key functional roles, will help predict the responses of ecosystems to environmental changes. Our aim was to evaluate the relative role of different drivers in shaping the diversity patterns of vertebrate herbivores, a group of organisms exerting a strong trophic influence in terrestrial Arctic ecosystems. This biome, traditionally perceived as homogeneous and low in biodiversity, includes wide variation in biotic and physical conditions and is currently undergoing major environmental change. Location: The Arctic (including the High Arctic, Low Arctic and Subarctic) MethodsWe compiled available data on vertebrate (birds and mammals) herbivore distribution at a pan-Arctic scale, and used eight variables that represent the most relevant hypotheses for explaining patterns of species richness. We used range maps rasterized on a 100kmx100km equal-area grid to analyse richness patterns of all vertebrate herbivore species combined, and birds and mammalian herbivores separately. Results: Overall, patterns of herbivore species richness in the Arctic were positively related to plant productivity (measured using the normalized difference vegetation index) and to the species richness of predators. Greater species richness of herbivores was also linked to areas with a higher mean annual temperature. Species richness of avian and mammalian herbivores were related to the distance from the coast, with the highest avian richness in coastal areas and mammalian richness peaking further inland. Main conclusions: Herbivore richness in the Arctic is most strongly linked to primary productivity and the species richness of predators. Our results suggest that biotic interactions, with either higher or lower trophic levels or both, can drive patterns of species richness at a biome-wide scale. Rapid ongoing environmental changes in the Arctic are likely to affect herbivore diversity through impacts on both primary productivity and changes in predator communities via range expansion of predators from lower latitudes.
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| 22. |
- Björkman, Anne, 1981, et al.
(författare)
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Plant functional trait change across a warming tundra biome
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 562:7725, s. 57-62
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The tundra is warming more rapidly than any other biome on Earth, and the potential ramifications are far-reaching because of global feedback effects between vegetation and climate. A better understanding of how environmental factors shape plant structure and function is crucial for predicting the consequences of environmental change for ecosystem functioning. Here we explore the biome-wide relationships between temperature, moisture and seven key plant functional traits both across space and over three decades of warming at 117 tundra locations. Spatial temperature–trait relationships were generally strong but soil moisture had a marked influence on the strength and direction of these relationships, highlighting the potentially important influence of changes in water availability on future trait shifts in tundra plant communities. Community height increased with warming across all sites over the past three decades, but other traits lagged far behind predicted rates of change. Our findings highlight the challenge of using space-for-time substitution to predict the functional consequences of future warming and suggest that functions that are tied closely to plant height will experience the most rapid change. They also reveal the strength with which environmental factors shape biotic communities at the coldest extremes of the planet and will help to improve projections of functional changes in tundra ecosystems with climate warming.
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| 23. |
- Björkman, Anne, 1981, et al.
(författare)
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Tundra Trait Team: A database of plant traits spanning the tundra biome
- 2018
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Ingår i: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 27:12, s. 1402-1411
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2018 The Authors Global Ecology and Biogeography Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd Motivation: The Tundra Trait Team (TTT) database includes field-based measurements of key traits related to plant form and function at multiple sites across the tundra biome. This dataset can be used to address theoretical questions about plant strategy and trade-offs, trait–environment relationships and environmental filtering, and trait variation across spatial scales, to validate satellite data, and to inform Earth system model parameters. Main types of variable contained: The database contains 91,970 measurements of 18 plant traits. The most frequently measured traits (>1,000 observations each) include plant height, leaf area, specific leaf area, leaf fresh and dry mass, leaf dry matter content, leaf nitrogen, carbon and phosphorus content, leaf C:N and N:P, seed mass, and stem specific density. Spatial location and grain: Measurements were collected in tundra habitats in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, including Arctic sites in Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Fennoscandia and Siberia, alpine sites in the European Alps, Colorado Rockies, Caucasus, Ural Mountains, Pyrenees, Australian Alps, and Central Otago Mountains (New Zealand), and sub-Antarctic Marion Island. More than 99% of observations are georeferenced. Time period and grain: All data were collected between 1964 and 2018. A small number of sites have repeated trait measurements at two or more time periods. Major taxa and level of measurement: Trait measurements were made on 978 terrestrial vascular plant species growing in tundra habitats. Most observations are on individuals (86%), while the remainder represent plot or site means or maximums per species. Software format: csv file and GitHub repository with data cleaning scripts in R; contribution to TRY plant trait database (www.try-db.org) to be included in the next version release.
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| 24. |
- Christmas, Matthew, et al.
(författare)
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Evolutionary constraint and innovation across hundreds of placental mammals
- 2023
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 380:6643
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Zoonomia is the largest comparative genomics resource for mammals produced to date. By aligning genomes for 240 species, we identify bases that, when mutated, are likely to affect fitness and alter disease risk. At least 332 million bases (similar to 10.7%) in the human genome are unusually conserved across species (evolutionarily constrained) relative to neutrally evolving repeats, and 4552 ultraconserved elements are nearly perfectly conserved. Of 101 million significantly constrained single bases, 80% are outside protein-coding exons and half have no functional annotations in the Encyclopedia of DNA Elements (ENCODE) resource. Changes in genes and regulatory elements are associated with exceptional mammalian traits, such as hibernation, that could inform therapeutic development. Earth's vast and imperiled biodiversity offers distinctive power for identifying genetic variants that affect genome function and organismal phenotypes.
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| 25. |
- Elmendorf, S. C., et al.
(författare)
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Experiment, monitoring, and gradient methods used to infer climate change effects on plant communities yield consistent patterns
- 2015
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424. ; 112:2, s. 448-452
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Inference about future climate change impacts typically relies on one of three approaches: manipulative experiments, historical comparisons (broadly defined to include monitoring the response to ambient climate fluctuations using repeat sampling of plots, dendroecology, and paleoecology techniques), and space-for-time substitutions derived from sampling along environmental gradients. Potential limitations of all three approaches are recognized. Here we address the congruence among these three main approaches by comparing the degree to which tundra plant community composition changes (i) in response to in situ experimental warming, (ii) with interannual variability in summer temperature within sites, and (iii) over spatial gradients in summer temperature. We analyzed changes in plant community composition from repeat sampling (85 plant communities in 28 regions) and experimental warming studies (28 experiments in 14 regions) throughout arctic and alpine North America and Europe. Increases in the relative abundance of species with a warmer thermal niche were observed in response to warmer summer temperatures using all three methods; however, effect sizes were greater over broad-scale spatial gradients relative to either temporal variability in summer temperature within a site or summer temperature increases induced by experimental warming. The effect sizes for change over time within a site and with experimental warming were nearly identical. These results support the view that inferences based on space-for-time substitution overestimate the magnitude of responses to contemporary climate warming, because spatial gradients reflect long-term processes. In contrast, in situ experimental warming and monitoring approaches yield consistent estimates of the magnitude of response of plant communities to climate warming.
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