| 1. |
- Guo, Yuming, et al.
(författare)
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Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios : A multicountry time series modelling study
- 2018
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Ingår i: PLoS Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 15:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections.CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
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| 2. |
- Tawatsupa, Benjawan, et al.
(författare)
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Association between Heat Stress and Occupational Injury among Thai Workers : Findings of the Thai Cohort Study
- 2013
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Ingår i: Industrial Health. - : National Institute of Occupational Safety & Health, Japan. - 0019-8366 .- 1880-8026. ; 51:1, s. 34-46
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global warming will increase heat stress at home and at work. Few studies have addressed the health consequences in tropical low and middle income settings such as Thailand. We report on the association between heat stress and workplace injury among workers enrolled in the large national Thai Cohort Study in 2005 (N=58,495). We used logistic regression to relate heat stress and occupational injury separately for males and females, adjusting for covariate effects of age, income, education, alcohol, smoking, Body Mass Index, job location, job type, sleeping hours, existing illness, and having to work very fast. Nearly 20% of workers experienced occupational heat stress which strongly and significantly associated with occupational injury (adjusted OR 2.12, 95%CI 1.87-2.42 for males and 1.89, 95%CI 1.64-2.18 for females). This study provides evidence connecting heat stress and occupational injury in tropical Thailand and also identifies several factors that increase heat exposure. The findings will be useful for policy makers to consider work-related heat stress problems in tropical Thailand and to develop an occupational health and safety program which is urgently needed given the looming threat of global warming.
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| 3. |
- Tawatsupa, Benjawan, et al.
(författare)
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Association between occupational heat stress and kidney disease among 37 816 workers in the Thai Cohort Study (TCS)
- 2012
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Ingår i: Journal of Epidemiology. - : Japan Epidemiological Association. - 0917-5040 .- 1349-9092. ; 22:3, s. 251-260
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: We examined the relationship between self-reported occupational heat stress and incidence of self-reported doctor-diagnosed kidney disease in Thai workers.Methods: Data were derived from baseline (2005) and follow-up (2009) self-report questionnaires from a large national Thai Cohort Study (TCS). Analysis was restricted to full-time workers (n = 17 402 men and 20 414 women) without known kidney disease at baseline. We used logistic regression models to examine the association of incident kidney disease with heat stress at work, after adjustment for smoking, alcohol drinking, body mass index, and a large number of socioeconomic and demographic characteristics.Results: Exposure to heat stress was more common in men than in women (22% vs 15%). A significant association between heat stress and incident kidney disease was observed in men (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.01-2.16). The risk of kidney disease was higher among workers reporting workplace heat stress in both 2005 and 2009. Among men exposed to prolonged heat stress, the odds of developing kidney disease was 2.22 times that of men without such exposure (95% CI 1.48-3.35, P-trend <0.001). The incidence of kidney disease was even higher among men aged 35 years or older in a physical job: 2.2% exposed to prolonged heat stress developed kidney disease compared with 0.4% with no heat exposure (adjusted OR = 5.30, 95% CI 1.17-24.13).Conclusions: There is an association between self-reported occupational heat stress and self-reported doctor-diagnosed kidney disease in Thailand. The results indicate a need for occupational health interventions for heat stress among workers in tropical climates.
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| 4. |
- Tawatsupa, Benjawan, et al.
(författare)
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Heat stress, health and well-being : findings from a large national cohort of Thai adults
- 2012
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 2:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: This study aims to examine the association between self-reported heat stress interference with daily activities (sleeping, work, travel, housework and exercise) and three graded-holistic health and well-being outcomes (energy, emotions and life satisfaction).DESIGN: A cross-sectional study.SETTING: The setting is tropical and developing countries as Thailand, where high temperature and high humidity are common, particularly during the hottest seasons.PARTICIPANTS: This study is based on an ongoing national Thai Cohort Study of distance-learning open-university adult students (N=60 569) established in 2005 to study the health-risk transition. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Health impacts from heat stress in our study are categorised as physical health impacts (energy levels), mental health impacts (emotions) and well-being (life satisfaction). For each health and well-being outcome we report ORs and 95% CIs using multinomial logistic regression adjusting for a wide array of potential confounders.RESULTS: Negative health and well-being outcomes (low-energy level, emotional problems and low life satisfaction) associated with increasing frequency of heat stress interfering with daily activities. Adjusted ORs for emotional problems were between 1.5 and 4.8 and in general worse than energy level (between 1.31 and 2.91) and life satisfaction (between 1.10 and 2.49). The worst health outcomes were when heat interfered with sleeping, followed by interference with daily travel, work, housework and exercise.CONCLUSIONS: In tropical Thailand there already are substantial heat stress impacts on health and well-being. Increasing temperatures from climate change plus the ageing and urbanisation of the population could significantly worsen the situation. There is a need to improve public health surveillance and public awareness regarding the risks of heat stress in daily life.
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| 5. |
- Tawatsupa, Benjawan, et al.
(författare)
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The association between overall health, psychological distress, and occupational heat stress among a large national cohort of 40,913 Thai workers
- 2010
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Ingår i: Global health action. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1654-9880 .- 1654-9716. ; 3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Occupational heat stress is a well-known problem, particularly in tropical countries, affecting workers, health and well-being. There are very few recent studies that have reported on the effect of heat stress on mental health, or overall health in workers, although socioeconomic development and rapid urbanization in tropical developing countries like Thailand create working conditions in which heat stress is likely. Objective: This study is aimed at identifying the relationship between self-reported heat stress and psychological distress, and overall health status in Thai workers. Results: 18% of our large national cohort (>40,000 subjects) often works under heat stress conditions and males are exposed to heat stress more often than females. Furthermore, working under heat stress conditions is associated with both worse overall health and psychological distress (adjusted odds ratios ranging from 1.49 to 1.84). Conclusions: This association between occupational heat stress and worse health needs more public health attention and further development on occupational health interventions as climate change increases Thailand’s temperatures.
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| 6. |
- Tawatsupa, Benjawan, et al.
(författare)
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The association between temperature and mortality in tropical middle income Thailand from 1999 to 2008
- 2014
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Ingår i: International journal of biometeorology. - : Springer Berlin/Heidelberg. - 0020-7128 .- 1432-1254. ; 58:2, s. 203-215
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We have investigated the association between tropical weather condition and age-sex adjusted death rates (ADR) in Thailand over a 10-year period from 1999 to 2008. Population, mortality, weather and air pollution data were obtained from four national databases. Alternating multivariable fractional polynomial (MFP) regression and stepwise multivariable linear regression analysis were used to sequentially build models of the associations between temperature variable and deaths, adjusted for the effects and interactions of age, sex, weather (6 variables), and air pollution (10 variables). The associations are explored and compared among three seasons (cold, hot and wet months) and four weather zones of Thailand (the North, Northeast, Central, and South regions). We found statistically significant associations between temperature and mortality in Thailand. The maximum temperature is the most important variable in predicting mortality. Overall, the association is nonlinear U-shape and 31 A degrees C is the minimum-mortality temperature in Thailand. The death rates increase when maximum temperature increase with the highest rates in the North and Central during hot months. The final equation used in this study allowed estimation of the impact of a 4 A degrees C increase in temperature as projected for Thailand by 2100; this analysis revealed that the heat-related deaths will increase more than the cold-related deaths avoided in the hot and wet months, and overall the net increase in expected mortality by region ranges from 5 to 13 % unless preventive measures were adopted. Overall, these results are useful for health impact assessment for the present situation and future public health implication of global climate change for tropical Thailand.
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