| 1. |
- Asokan, Shilpa M., et al.
(författare)
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Climate model performance and change projection for freshwater fluxes : comparison for irrigated areas in Central and South Asia
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-5818. ; 5, s. 48-65
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Study region: The large semi-arid Aral Region in Central Asia and the smaller tropical Mahanadi River Basin (MRB) in India. Study focus: Few studies have so far evaluated the performance of the latest generation ofglobal climate models on hydrological basin scales. We here investigate the performanceand projections of the global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) for freshwater fluxes and their changes in two regional hydrological basins, which are both irrigated but of different scale and with different climate. New hydrological insights for the region: For precipitation in both regions, model accuracy relative to observations has remained the same or decreased in successive climate model generations until and including CMIP5. No single climate model out-performs other models across all key freshwater variables in any of the investigated basins. Scale effects are not evident from global model application directly to freshwater assessment for the two basins of widely different size. Overall, model results are less accurate and more uncertain for freshwater fluxes than for temperature, and particularly so for model-implied water storage changes. Also, the monsoon-driven runoff seasonality in MRB is not accurately reproduced. Model projections agree on evapotranspiration increase in both regions until the climatic period 2070–2099. This increase is fed by precipitation increase in MRB and by runoff water (thereby decreasing runoff) in the Aral Region.
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| 2. |
- Azcarate, Juan, 1975-, et al.
(författare)
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Scenario-based Transboundary Approach to Shape Arctic Futures
- 2013
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Technological advances, climate change and increased strategic interest in the Arctic are causing rapid and long lasting transformations that challenge established governance and collaboration practices, and increase information demands to support regional decision making. In the rapidly transforming Arctic, however, scenarios of environmental change risk being insufficiently accounted for in adaptation planning, as monitoring of key environmental parameters has declined or is poorly optimized. Furthermore, application of support instruments for environmental planning, such as strategic environmental assessment, has been limited. This poster presents recent advancements in efforts to combine quantitative analysis of environmental monitoring in the Arctic with strategic governance research to develop instruments, such as scenarios, projections and assessment processes, which can facilitate relevant planning and decision making for change adaptation. The research explores and aims to improve the preconditions for and links between environmental management, policy-relevant monitoring, and climate change adaptation strategies in the Arctic. Results include environmental monitoring assessment for the Arctic, and design of a transboundary strategic environmental assessment approach that includes scenarios as a main component for enabling strategic dialogues, information exchange and decision support. In this proposed approach, focus is placed on identifying conflicts of interest, gaps of knowledge and uncertainties, and on developing inclusive scenarios and future projections that could be used by different actors to facilitate improved understanding of climate change impacts on sensitive and unique Arctic ecosystems. The approach can be used to discuss and arrive at shared projections, visions and objectives for the Arctic, and its application and testing in research may aid in enabling Arctic actors to establish networks, interact, share information and develop their capacities to improve decisions on Arctic futures.
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| 3. |
- Azcárate, Juan, et al.
(författare)
-
Scenario-based Transboundary Approach to Shape Arctic Futures
- 2013
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Technological advances, climate change and increased strategic interest in the Arctic are causing rapid and long lasting transformations that challenge established governance and collaboration practices, and increase information demands to support regional decision making. In the rapidly transforming Arctic, however, scenarios of environmental change risk being insufficiently accounted for in adaptation planning, as monitoring of key environmental parameters has declined or is poorly optimized. Furthermore, application of support instruments for environmental planning, such as strategic environmental assessment, has been limited. This poster presents recent advancements in efforts to combine quantitative analysis of environmental monitoring in the Arctic with strategic governance research to develop instruments, such as scenarios, projections and assessment processes, that can facilitate relevant planning and decision making for change adaptation. that the research explores and aims to improve the preconditions for and links between environmental management, policy-relevant monitoring, and climate change adaptation strategies in the Arctic. Results include environmental monitoring assessment for the Arctic, and design of a transboundary strategic environmental assessment approach that includes scenarios as a main component for enabling strategic dialogues, information exchange and decision support. In this proposed approach, focus is placed on identifying conflicts of interest, gaps of knowledge and uncertainties, and on developing inclusive scenarios and future projections that could be used by different actors to facilitate improved understanding of climate change impacts on sensitive and unique Arctic ecosystems. The approach can be used to discuss and arrive at shared projections, visions and objectives for the Arctic, and its application and testing in research may aid in enabling Arctic actors to establish networks, interact, share information and develop their capacities to improve decisions on Arctic futures.
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| 4. |
- Azcarate, Juan, et al.
(författare)
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Shaping a Sustainability Strategy for the Arctic
- 2011
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The development of the Arctic is shaped by the opportunities and constraints brought by climate change and technological advances. In the Arctic, warmer climate is expected to affect ecosystems, local communities and infrastructure due to a combination of effects like reduced sea ice and glaciers, thawing permafrost and increased frequency of floods. Less ice and new technologies mean openings to exploit natural resources in the Arctic. Fishing, mining, hydrocarbon extraction and vessel transport activities are likely to increase together with supporting infrastructures. An escalation of economic activities in the Arctic is expected to generate employment opportunities and migration, lead to increasing urbanization and affect the socio-economic structures of indigenous cultures. To address these issues, there is a need for strategic dialogues on the development of the Arctic. Establishment and foci of such dialogues can be facilitated and formalized through a transboundary strategic environmental assessment, which brings together different visions, objectives and projected development scenarios. Visions and objectives set the scope of environmental policy, management and related human activities, while scenarios outline future development options, and assessments of the scenarios allow for relevant governance, adaptation and monitoring measures. This paper argues for the need of a transboundary strategic environmental assessment process to identify and link critical development issues, enhance participation and capacity among stakeholders, address transboundary concerns, and project and assess relevant development scenarios to reach consensus on a sustainability strategy for the Arctic.
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| 5. |
- Azcarate, Juan, 1975-, et al.
(författare)
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Strategic environmental assessment and monitoring : Arctic key gaps and bridging pathways
- 2013
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 8:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Arctic region undergoes rapid and unprecedented environmental change. Environmental assessment and monitoring is needed to understand and decide how to mitigate and/or adapt to the changes and their impacts on society and ecosystems. This letter analyzes the application of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and the monitoring, based on environmental observations, that should be part of SEA, elucidates main gaps in both, and proposes an overarching SEA framework to systematically link and improve both with focus on the rapidly changing Arctic region. Shortcomings in the monitoring of environmental change are concretized by examples of main gaps in the observations of Arctic hydroclimatic changes. For relevant identification and efficient reduction of such gaps and remaining uncertainties under typical conditions of limited monitoring resources, the proposed overarching framework for SEA application includes components for explicit gap/uncertainty handling and monitoring, systematically integrated within all steps of the SEA process. The framework further links to adaptive governance, which should explicitly consider key knowledge and information gaps that are identified through and must be handled in the SEA process, and accordingly (re)formulate and promote necessary new or modified monitoring objectives for bridging these gaps.
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| 6. |
- Azcarate, Juan, 1975-, et al.
(författare)
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Transboundary approach proposal for sustainable and climate change adaptation strategies in the Arctic
- 2012
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- IntroductionDecisions on the development of the Arctic should be given increased attention as its environmental, socio-economic and political circumstances are being significantly influenced by major trends that reinforce and support each other and together are causing long lasting transformations in the region.Increased strategic interest in the Arctic combined with rapid technological advances and climate change are leading to growing economic activities and natural resource extraction that challenge regional sustainable management and governance practices and international collaboration.Furthermore, environmental transformations risk being insufficiently accounted for in adaptation planning as environmental assessment application in the Arctic has been limited and monitoring of key environmental parameters has declined or is poorly optimized just when better information is a strong need. In an effort to better understand the forces behind rapid Arctic transformations and to support key development decisions, a collaborative research project between the Royal Institute of Technology and Stockholm University has been established.1The aim of the project is to combine recent frontline research on strategic governance with quantitative analysis of environmental monitoring to develop decision making tools and assessment processes and explore and improve the preconditions for and links between environmental management, policy-relevant monitoring and climate change adaptation strategies in the Arctic.MethodsA context analysis of Arctic institutional and governance frameworks is being carried out, where policies, sustainability objectives, environmental assessment practice, actors, and the effects of climate change are compiled, systematized and synthesized.Furthermore, a transboundary and participative strategic environmental assessment for information and skill exchange is being developed. Focus is placed on identifying conflicts of interest, gaps of knowledge and uncertainties, and on developing inclusive scenarios of future development possibilities that could be used by different stakeholders to discuss and arrive at shared development visions and objectives for the Arctic.Results and DiscussionThe collaborative research will enable Arctic actors to interact, increase and share information, skills and knowledge, build networks and, by this, develop their capacities. Moreover, experience will be gained in developing transboundary and participative assessment approaches that can be used to arrive at accepted and inclusive scenarios, visions and objectives for the Arctic, facilitating an improved understanding of climate change impacts on sensitive and unique Arctic ecosystems. Most importantly, it is thought that the research project will support decision makers to consider sustainability issues when deciding upon the measures and choices that will shape the future development of the Arctic.2ConclusionThe proposed collaborative research project serves to develop transboundary and participative assessment approaches and tools to identify strategies towards sustainable development in the Arctic. This is done by creating platforms for stakeholder participation and dialogue where inclusive and accepted development objectives are formulated to address the rapid and profound changes that confront the Arctic. Depending on the results of the Arctic case study, similar transboundary approaches can be applied in other regions where there is a need to involve a plurality of stakeholders to take fair, legitimate and sustainable decisions. 1(http://www.kth.se/abe/inst/lwr/grupper/ema/research/shaping-a-sustainability-strategy-for-the-arctic-1.82268).2(http://iaia.org/conferences/iaia11/uploadedpapers/final%20drafts/Shaping%20a%20Sustainability%20Strategy%20for%20the%20Arctic.pdf).
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Bring, Arvid, 1980-
(författare)
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Arctic Climate and Water Change : Information Relevance for Assessment and Adaptation
- 2013
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The Arctic is subject to growing economic and political interest. Meanwhile, its water and climate systems are in rapid transformation. Relevant and accessible information about water and climate is therefore vital to detect, understand and adapt to the changes. This thesis investigates hydrological monitoring systems, climate model data, and our understanding of hydro-climatic change, for adaptation to water system changes in the Arctic. Results indicate a lack of harmonized water chemistry data, which may impede efforts to understand transport and origin of key waterborne constituents. Further development of monitoring cannot rely only on a reconciliation of observations and projections on where climate change will be the most severe, as they diverge in this regard. Climate model simulations of drainage basin temperature and precipitation have improved between two recent model generations, but large inaccuracies remain for precipitation projections. Late 20th-century discharge changes in major Arctic rivers generally show excess of water relative to precipitation changes. This indicates a possible contribution of stored water from permafrost or groundwater to sea level rise. The river contribution to the increasing Arctic Ocean freshwater inflow matches that of glaciers, which underlines the importance of considering all sources when assessing change. To provide adequate information for research and policy, Arctic hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring needs to be extended, better integrated and made more accessible. This especially applies to hydrochemistry monitoring, where a more complete set of monitored basins is motivated, including a general extension for the large unmonitored areas close to the Arctic Ocean. Improvements in climate model parameterizations are needed, in particular for precipitation projections. Finally, further water-focused data and modeling efforts are required to resolve the source of excess discharge in Arctic rivers.
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| 9. |
- Bring, Arvid, et al.
(författare)
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Arctic Climate and Water Change : Model and Observation Relevance for Assessment and Adaptation
- 2014
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Ingår i: Surveys in geophysics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0169-3298 .- 1573-0956. ; 35:3, s. 853-877
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Arctic is subject to growing economic and political interest. Meanwhile, its climate and water systems are in rapid transformation. In this paper, we review and extend a set of studies on climate model results, hydro-climatic change, and hydrological monitoring systems. Results indicate that general circulation model (GCM) projections of drainage basin temperature and precipitation have improved between two model generations. However, some inaccuracies remain for precipitation projections. When considering geographical priorities for monitoring or adaptation efforts, our results indicate that future projections by GCMs and recent observations diverge regarding the basins where temperature and precipitation changes currently are the most pronounced and where they will be so in the future. Regarding late twentieth-century discharge changes in major Arctic rivers, data generally show excess of water relative to precipitation changes. This indicates a possible contribution to sea-level rise of river water that was previously stored in permafrost or groundwater. The river contribution to the increasing Arctic Ocean freshwater inflow is similar in magnitude to the separate contribution from glaciers, which underlines the importance of considering all possible sources of freshwater when assessing sea-level change. We further investigate monitoring systems and find a lack of harmonized water chemistry data, which limits the ability to understand the origin and transport of nutrients, carbon and sediment to the sea. To provide adequate information for research and policy, Arctic hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring needs to be extended, better integrated and made more accessible. Further water-focused data and modeling efforts are required to resolve the source of excess discharge in Arctic rivers. Finally, improvements in climate model parameterizations are needed, in particular for precipitation projections.
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| 10. |
- Bring, Arvid, et al.
(författare)
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Arctic terrestrial hydrology : A synthesis of processes, regional effects, and research challenges
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences. - 2169-8953 .- 2169-8961. ; 121:3, s. 621-649
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Terrestrial hydrology is central to the Arctic system and its freshwater circulation. Water transport and water constituents vary, however, across a very diverse geography. In this paper, which is a component of the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis, we review the central freshwater processes in the terrestrial Arctic drainage and how they function and change across seven hydrophysiographical regions (Arctic tundra, boreal plains, shield, mountains, grasslands, glaciers/ice caps, and wetlands). We also highlight links between terrestrial hydrology and other components of the Arctic freshwater system. In terms of key processes, snow cover extent and duration is generally decreasing on a pan-Arctic scale, but snow depth is likely to increase in the Arctic tundra. Evapotranspiration will likely increase overall, but as it is coupled to shifts in landscape characteristics, regional changes are uncertain and may vary over time. Streamflow will generally increase with increasing precipitation, but high and low flows may decrease in some regions. Continued permafrost thaw will trigger hydrological change in multiple ways, particularly through increasing connectivity between groundwater and surface water and changing water storage in lakes and soils, which will influence exchange of moisture with the atmosphere. Other effects of hydrological change include increased risks to infrastructure and water resource planning, ecosystem shifts, and growing flows of water, nutrients, sediment, and carbon to the ocean. Coordinated efforts in monitoring, modeling, and processing studies at various scales are required to improve the understanding of change, in particular at the interfaces between hydrology, atmosphere, ecology, resources, and oceans.
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| 11. |
- Bring, Arvid, et al.
(författare)
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Contrasting Hydroclimatic Model-Data Agreements Over the Nordic-Arctic Region
- 2019
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Ingår i: Earth's Future. - : John Wiley and Sons Inc. - 2328-4277. ; 7:12, s. 1270-1282
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Rapid changes in high-latitude hydroclimate have important implications for human societies and environment. Previous studies of different regions have indicated better agreement between climate model results and observation data for the thermodynamic variable of surface air temperature (T) than for the water variables of precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), and runoff (R). Here we compare climate model output with observations for 64 Nordic and Arctic hydrological basins of different sizes, and for the whole region combined. We find an unexpectedly high agreement between models and observations for R, about as high as the model-observation agreement for T and distinctly higher than that for P or ET. Model-observation agreement for R and T is also consistently higher on the whole-region scale than individual basin scales. In contrast, model-observation agreement for P and ET is overall lower, and for some error measures also lower for the whole region than for individual basins of various scales. Region-specific soil freeze-thaw bias of climate models can at least partly explain the low model-observation agreement for P and ET, while leaving modeled R relatively unaffected. Thereby, model projections for this region may be similarly reliable and directly useful for large-scale average conditions of R as of T.
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| 12. |
- Bring, Arvid, et al.
(författare)
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Current status of Pan-Arctic hydrologic and hydrochemical observing networks
- 2007
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Ingår i: Proceedings from the Arctic Coastal Zones at Risk workshop in Tromsö, Norway, 1-3 October 2007.
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Access to reliable hydrologic and hydrochemical data is of paramount importance for accurately understanding and modeling ongoing change in the Arctic hydrologic cycle under a warming climate. Recent studies have shown that the availability of and accessibility to such data is limited, and also declining, for some Arctic areas. In particular, there is a lack of consistent monitoring of water chemistry. At the same time, there is little information on where and which data gaps are most critical.In light of the present decline of monitoring, it is important to compile and quantify the hydrological and water chemistry monitoring in the Arctic. It is further important to investigate whether there are any systematic differences in characteristics between monitored and unmonitored areas draining to the Arctic Ocean, as such biases might limit the ability of models to accurately predict hydrologic behavior across basins with different properties.We present a quantitative assessment of all openly available monitoring data for water discharge and important water chemistry parameters (carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment) in the pan-Arctic drainage basin.Openly accessible pan-Arctic monitoring data were assembled from various databases for discharge and water chemistry, and monitoring station locations were co-referenced to a 30-minute simulated topological network. This allowed the construction of a geographically distributed representation of the temporal and spatial extent of monitoring. By linking this information with spatially distributed basin properties, differences in characteristics between monitored and unmonitored areas were analyzed. Finally, spatial patterns in the recent decline of discharge monitoring were compared with recently observed and projected future temperature trends.Results indicate significant disparity in the spatial and temporal distribution of monitoring data, in particular for water chemistry monitoring, which is both spatially and temporally much less extensive than discharge monitoring. Additionally, there are systematic differences between the characteristics of monitored and unmonitored areas, within and between the different continents in the pan-Arctic drainage basin. The decline in network density has been greatest in four Eurasian basins. In these areas, recent observational temperature trends have been the smallest, while climate models predict the greatest future increases in these areas.The scarcity of water chemical data and the systematic differences in characteristics between monitored and unmonitored basins may limit the reliability of assessments of Arctic water and hydrochemical flux changes under a warming climate. Observed and modeled climate trends exhibit diverging spatial patterns, which makes it difficult to determine whether the basins with the greatest decline in discharge monitoring density are really the ones that will experience the greatest future temperature change. Arctic monitoring needs to be extended in certain areas to enable reliable characterization of hydrologic and hydro-chemical variability and change in the region.
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
- Bring, Arvid, et al.
(författare)
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Divergent relevance and prioritization basis for hydro-climatic change monitoring in the Arctic
- 2012
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change affects society and the Earth System largely through water cycle changes, such as altered precipitation patterns and increased drought and flood pressures. In the Arctic, which undergoes a particularly large and rapid environmental transformation, information on water cycle changes is crucial to plan for societal adaptation. A prioritization strategy is then needed for how (where and when) monitoring should be focused to get the most relevant information and data on Arctic hydro-climatic change with limited available resources. We investigate different possible strategies for a geographic prioritization of hydro-climatic change monitoring in the Arctic. Results show conflicting prioritization basis across 14 major Arctic hydrological basins. The current monitoring density distribution is relevant for the so far observed but not for the projected future changes in Arctic climate. The present and the projected future hot-spots of greatest climate change differ, so that major spatial shifts must be anticipated in the future with regard to climate change severity across the Arctic. Important temporal shifts must further be anticipated in several major Arctic basins with currently decreasing but expected future increasing precipitation.
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| 15. |
- Bring, Arvid, et al.
(författare)
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Effects on groundwater storage of restoring, constructing or draining wetlands in temperate and boreal climates: a systematic review
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Evidence. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2047-2382. ; 11:1
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Drainage activities have caused widespread wetland loss, groundwater drawdown and impairment of ecosystem services. There are now several national programs for wetland restoration, primarily focused on reintroducing ecosystem services such as habitats and nutrient retention. In Sweden, recent dry summers have also reinforced interest in hydrological functions such as the potential for enhanced groundwater storage, both in and around the wetland. However, there are several knowledge gaps regarding groundwater storage effects of restoration, including if they extend beyond the wetland and how they vary with local conditions. Therefore, we have systematically reviewed groundwater storage effects from the interventions of restoring, constructing or draining boreo-temperate wetlands. Drainage was included primarily to evaluate to what degree restoration can reverse drainage effects. Methods: We searched 8 databases for scientific journal publications in English, Swedish, Norwegian, Danish, French, German and Polish. Gray literature was searched in English and Swedish. Articles were included based on their relevance for Swedish conditions, i.e., in previously glaciated areas with boreal or temperate climate. Extracted outcome data were groundwater level changes, along with other variables including type of wetland and intervention and, when reported, distance between sampling point and intervention. Meta-analyses were conducted separately for studies that reported groundwater levels at different distances and studies that reported overall effects. Included studies were subject to critical appraisal to evaluate their susceptibility to bias, primarily selection bias, performance bias, and detection bias. Critical appraisal results were used in sensitivity analysis. Review findings: Out of 11,288 screened records, 224 articles fulfilled the criteria, and from these, 146 studies were included in meta-analysis. Most studies (89%) investigated peatlands, primarily from Finland, the UK and Canada. Restoration and drainage studies were equally common. Only nine studies reported measurements beyond the wetland area. Our synthesis is therefore primarily focused on effects within wetlands. In peatland restoration, the observed groundwater level rise decreased exponentially with distance from the restored ditch and was reduced to 50% after 9 [95% confidence interval: 5, 26] m. Drainage reached somewhat farther, with 50% of the groundwater drawdown remaining at 21 [11, 64] m. On average, restoration increased groundwater levels by 22 [16, 28] cm near the intervention, whereas drainage caused a drawdown of 19 [10, 27] cm. Assuming that sampling was unbiased, effects were similar for bogs, fens and mires. Restricting the meta-analysis to the 58% of studies that were of high validity did not alter conclusions. Conclusions: Effects of peatland restoration and drainage were of similar magnitudes but opposite directions. This indicates that, on average, rewetting of drained peatlands can be expected to restore groundwater levels near the ditch. However, restoration may not reach all the area affected by drainage, and there was a strong dependence on local context. For managers of wetland projects, it is thus important to follow up and monitor restoration effects and reinforce the intervention if necessary. Our results also point to a need for better impact evaluation if increased storage beyond the restored wetland area is desired.
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| 16. |
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| 17. |
- Bring, Arvid, et al.
(författare)
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Groundwater storage effects from restoring, constructing or draining wetlands in temperate and boreal climates: a systematic review protocol
- 2020
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Ingår i: Environmental Evidence. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2047-2382. ; 9:1
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wetlands in many parts of the world have been degraded, as use of the land for food production and forestry for human needs have taken precedence. Drainage of wetlands has led to deteriorated wetland conditions and lowered water tables. Across the world, there are several programs for wetland restoration and construction, primarily to reintroduce lost habitats for wildlife, and to obtain nutrient retention functions. In Sweden, recent dry and hot summers have reinforced interest in the hydrological functions that wetlands may have, in particular as potential support for water storage in the landscape and added groundwater storage during dry periods. However, the agreement on substantial effects on groundwater is limited, and there are several critical knowledge gaps, including the extent to which such effects extend outside the wetland itself, and how they vary with local conditions, such as topography, soil, and climate. Therefore, this review will address the groundwater storage effect of restoring, constructing or draining wetlands in the boreo-temperate region. Methods: We will conduct a systematic review of the evidence, drawing on both peer-reviewed and grey literature. Articles in English, Swedish, Norwegian, Danish, French, German and Polish will be retrieved from academic databases, Google Scholar, and websites of specialist organizations. We will screen literature in two stages, first at the title and abstract level and then in full text, the latter with blinded decisions by two independent reviewers for all articles. Articles will be included based on relevance criteria for a Swedish context: wetlands on previously glaciated soils in boreal and temperate climates. Data will be extracted from all included articles, including wetland type, intervention type, and hydrogeological setting. Studies will be subject to critical appraisal to evaluate their susceptibility to bias. Provided enough evidence of sufficient reliability, we will carry out meta-analyses of effect sizes in relation to various factors. The review will include a narrative synthesis in which we summarize the results of the review.
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| 18. |
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| 19. |
- Bring, Arvid, et al.
(författare)
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Hydro-climatic changes and their monitoring in the Arctic : Observation-model comparisons and prioritization options for monitoring development
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 492, s. 273-280
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Arctic undergoes particularly large and rapid hydro-climatic changes, and information on hydrological responses to these changes is crucial to plan for societal adaptation. We investigate hydro-climatic change severity and monitoring in 14 major hydrological basins across the pan-Arctic, in view of different possible strategies for their monitoring prioritization. Results show that the current distribution of monitoring density in these basins is more relevant for so far observed precipitation changes than for observed temperature changes, or for projected future temperature and precipitation changes. Furthermore, present and projected future hot-spots of greatest hydro-climatic change differ spatially, so that major spatial shifts must occur in the future among the different Arctic basins in order for observations and climate model projections to converge with regard to hydro-climatic change severity. Also temporally, observation-model convergence requires that important change direction shifts occur in major Arctic basins, which have currently decreasing precipitation while model projections imply future increasing precipitation within them. Different prioritization options for rational development of hydro-climatic monitoring can be argued for based on the present results. The divergent prioritization options imply a need for an explicit strategy for achieving certain information goals, which must be selected from a larger set of different possible goals based on societal importance.
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| 20. |
- Bring, Arvid, 1980-, et al.
(författare)
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Hydrological and hydrochemical observation status in the pan-Arctic drainage basin
- 2009
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Ingår i: Polar Research. - : Norwegian Polar Institute. - 0800-0395 .- 1751-8369. ; 28, s. 327-338
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In order to identify and understand the ongoing changes in the Arctic hydrological cycle, and the impacts on the Arctic Ocean, timely and open access to water and water-chemistry data is essential. By synthesizing and analysing all openly accessible water-discharge and water-quality data, we present an updated, quantitative picture of the status of observational data on hydrological and hydrochemical fluxes from the pan-Arctic drainage basin (PADB) to the ocean. We identify and compare the characteristics of monitored and unmonitored areas, and the differences between them, across the continents in the PADB. Results indicate significant gaps in monitoring data for water chemistry, in particular for high-latitude near-coastal areas. The differences in characteristics between monitored and unmonitored areas may bias assessments of hydrological and hydrochemical fluxes to the Arctic Ocean. The reliable identification and understanding of important biogeochemical processes in the PADB require extended monitoring, particularly in high-latitude permafrost ground, and more ready access to harmonized and integrated hydrochemical data.
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| 21. |
- Bring, Arvid, et al.
(författare)
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Implications of freshwater flux data from the CMIP5 multimodel output across a set of Northern Hemisphere drainage basins
- 2015
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Ingår i: EARTHS FUTURE. - 2328-4277. ; 3:6, s. 206-217
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The multimodel ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) synthesizes the latest research in global climate modeling. The freshwater system on land, particularly runoff, has so far been of relatively low priority in global climate models, despite the societal and ecosystem importance of freshwater changes, and the science and policy needs for such model output on drainage basin scales. Here we investigate the implications of CMIP5 multimodel ensemble output data for the freshwater system across a set of drainage basins in the Northern Hemisphere. Results of individual models vary widely, with even ensemble mean results differing greatly from observations and implying unrealistic long-term systematic changes in water storage and level within entire basins. The CMIP5 projections of basin-scale freshwater fluxes differ considerably more from observations and among models for the warm temperate study basins than for the Arctic and cold temperate study basins. In general, the results call for concerted research efforts and model developments for improving the understanding and modeling of the freshwater system and its change drivers. Specifically, more attention to basin-scale water flux analyses should be a priority for climate model development, and an important focus for relevant model-based advice for adaptation to climate change.
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| 22. |
- Bring, Arvid, et al.
(författare)
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Information relevance for scenarios of Arctic climate and water change
- 2013
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Relevant and accessible information about Arctic water and climate change is vital for scenario projection and adaptation in the rapidly changing region. We investigate the adequacy and relevance of hydrological monitoring systems, climate model data and hydro-climatic change understanding for formulation of change scenarios and adaptation to water system changes in the Arctic. Our results indicate a lack of harmonized water chemistry data for the pan-Arctic drainage basin, which may impede efforts at understanding transport and origin of key waterborne constituents and projecting their changes of relevance for water, climate and ecosystems. Furthermore, divergent distribution of observed and projected climate change severity poses challenges to prioritizing monitoring development. Climate model projections of drainage basin temperature and precipitation have improved between two successive model generations, but large inaccuracies remain for projected precipitation scenarios. Late 20th-century discharge changes in major Arctic rivers generally show excess of water relative to observed precipitation changes, indicating a possible contribution of stored water from permafrost or groundwater, even when considering data uncertainty on Arctic precipitation. To provide adequate information for research and policy, Arctic hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring needs to be extended, better integrated and more accessible, specifically regarding hydrochemistry with a more complete set of basins, and in general for the large unmonitored areas closer to the Arctic Ocean. Improvements in climate model parameterizations are needed in particular for precipitation projections, and further water-focused data and modeling efforts are required to resolve the source of excess discharge in Arctic rivers.
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| 23. |
- Bring, Arvid, et al.
(författare)
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Pan-Arctic drainage basin monitoring: current status and potential significance for assessment of climate change effects and feedbacks
- 2007
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Climate & Water. - 9789521127908 ; , s. 88-93
-
Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Access to reliable hydrologic data is of paramount importance for accurately understanding and modeling ongoing change in and climate feedbacks of the Arctic hydrologic cycle. The accessibility to such data is limited, and continues to decline for some Arctic areas, but there is little information on where and which data gaps are most critical. We present a quantitative assessment of openly accessible monitoring data for water discharge and chemistry in the pan-Arctic drainage basin. We also quantify differences in characteristics between monitored and unmonitored areas, and analyze spatial patterns in reported decline of discharge networks in relation to recently observed and future modeled temperature trends. Results indicate that there is significant disparity in the spatial and temporal distribution of monitoring data, in particular for water chemistry monitoring. Additionally, there are systematic differences between the characteristics of monitored and unmonitored areas, within and between the different continents in the pan-Arctic drainage basin. Discharge network density has declined the most in four Eurasian drainage basins, which show the smallest recently observed temperature trends but the greatest modeled future temperature changes. Differences in characteristics between monitored and unmonitored areas may limit the reliability of assessments of Arctic water and solute flux change under a warming climate. Arctic monitoring needs to be extended in certain areas to fully enable characterization of the hydrologic variability and change in the region.
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| 24. |
- Bring, Arvid, et al.
(författare)
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Pan-Arctic Drainage Basin Monitoring: Current Status and Potential Significance for Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Feedbacks
- 2007
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Ingår i: Arctic Forum Abstract Volume.
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Access to reliable hydrologic data is of paramount importance for the accurate understanding of changes in the arctic hydrologic cycle, and is also vital to policymakers as a base for sound environmental decisions. Accessibility to such data is limited and continues to decline for some arctic areas, while little information exists on which data gaps are most critical. This study presents a quantitative assessment of openly available monitoring data for water discharge and chemistry in the pan-arctic drainage basin. Results indicate that there is significant disparity in the spatial and temporal distribution of accessible monitoring data, in particular for water chemistry monitoring. Additionally, there are systematic differences between the characteristics of monitored and unmonitored areas. These differences may limit the reliability of assessments of arctic water and solute flux changes under a warming climate. Arctic monitoring needs to be extended in certain areas, and data needs to be disseminated more efficiently, to fully enable characterization of the hydrologic variability and change in the region.
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| 25. |
- Bring, Arvid, et al.
(författare)
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Pan-Arctic drainage basin observation networks: current status and potential significance for assessment of climate change effects and feedbacks
- 2007
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Ingår i: 1st IPY workshop on Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks.
-
Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Hydrological observation networks are integral for understanding and modeling present and future changes in and climate feedbacks to the Arctic environmental system. Recent studies have reported a widespread decline in these networks, but patterns of decline and location of critical data gaps are less certain. We present an updated and quantitative status of openly accessible observation network data for discharge and water chemistry in the pan-Arctic drainage area. We also compare relevant hydrological and socio-economic characteristics of monitored and unmonitored areas, and analyze the decline in network density in relation to recently observed and future modeled temperature trends. Results indicate that there are significant temporal and spatial variations in accessible data, and that there is a critical lack of accessible water chemistry data for large shares of the pan-Arctic. Furthermore, there are systematic differences in characteristics between monitored and unmonitored areas, within and between pan-Arctic regions. Discharge network density has declined the most in four Eurasian drainage basins, which show the smallest recently observed temperature trends but the greatest modeled future temperature changes. Differences in characteristics between monitored and unmonitored areas may limit the reliability of assessments of Arctic water and solute flux change under a warming climate. Improved understanding of the Arctic hydrological system requires less restricted access to monitoring data, extended network coverage of unmonitored areas, and a commitment to sustaining and improving existing networks.
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| 26. |
- Bring, Arvid, et al.
(författare)
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Pan-Arctic river discharge : Prioritizing monitoring of future climate change hot spots
- 2017
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Ingår i: Earth's Future. - 2328-4277. ; 5:1, s. 72-92
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Arctic freshwater cycle is changing rapidly, which will require adequate monitoring of river flows to detect, observe, and understand changes and provide adaptation information. There has, however, been little detail about where the greatest flow changes are projected, and where monitoring therefore may need to be strengthened. In this study, we used a set of recent climate model runs and an advanced macro-scale hydrological model to analyze how flows across the continental pan-Arctic are projected to change and where the climate models agree on significant changes. We also developed a method to identify where monitoring stations should be placed to observe these significant changes, and compared this set of suggested locations with the existing network of monitoring stations. Overall, our results reinforce earlier indications of large increases in flow over much of the Arctic, but we also identify some areas where projections agree on significant changes but disagree on the sign of change. For monitoring, central and eastern Siberia, Alaska, and central Canada are hot spots for the highest changes. To take advantage of existing networks, a number of stations across central Canada and western and central Siberia could form a prioritized set. Further development of model representation of high-latitude hydrology would improve confidence in the areas we identify here. Nevertheless, ongoing observation programs may consider these suggested locations in efforts to improve monitoring of the rapidly changing Arctic freshwater cycle.
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| 27. |
- Bring, Arvid, et al.
(författare)
-
Relevance of Hydro-Climatic Change Projection and Monitoring for Assessment of Water Cycle Changes in the Arctic
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 40:4, s. 316-369
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Rapid changes to the Arctic hydrological cycle challenge both our process understanding and our ability to find appropriate adaptation strategies. We have investigated the relevance and accuracy development of climate change projections for assessment of water cycle changes in major Arctic drainage basins. Results show relatively good agreement of climate model projections with observed temperature changes, but high model inaccuracy relative to available observation data for precipitation changes. Direct observations further show systematically larger (smaller) runoff than precipitation increases (decreases). This result is partly attributable to uncertainties and systematic bias in precipitation observations, but still indicates that some of the observed increase in Arctic river runoff is due to water storage changes, for example melting permafrost and/or groundwater storage changes, within the drainage basins. Such causes of runoff change affect sea level, in addition to ocean salinity, and inland water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Process-based hydrological modeling and observations, which can resolve changes in evapotranspiration, and groundwater and permafrost storage at and below river basin scales, are needed in order to accurately interpret and translate climate-driven precipitation changes to changes in freshwater cycling and runoff. In contrast to this need, our results show that the density of Arctic runoff monitoring has become increasingly biased and less relevant by decreasing most and being lowest in river basins with the largest expected climatic changes.
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| 28. |
- Bring, Arvid, et al.
(författare)
-
Role-play simulations as an aid to achieve complex learning outcomes in hydrological science
- 2019
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Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 23:5, s. 2369-2378
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Students in hydrology are expected to become proficient in a set of quantitative skills while also acquiring the ability to apply their problem-solving abilities in real-life situations. To achieve both these types of learning outcomes, there is broad evidence that activity-based learning is beneficial. In this paper, we argue that role-play simulations in particular are useful for achieving complex learning outcomes, i.e., making students able to coordinate and integrate various analytical skills in complicated settings. We evaluated the effects of an integrated water resources management (IWRM) negotiation simulation next to more traditional teaching methods intended to foster quantitative understanding. Results showed that despite similar student-reported achievement of both complex and quantitative intended learning outcomes, the students favored the negotiation simulation over the traditional method. This implies that role-play simulations can motivate and actively engage a classroom, thereby creating a space for potential deeper learning and longer retention of knowledge. While our findings support the utility of simulations to teach complex learning outcomes and indicate no shortcoming in achieving such outcomes next to traditional methods aimed at quantitative learning outcomes, simulations are still not widely used to foster activity-based learning in the classroom. We thus conclude by presenting three particularly challenging areas of role-play simulations as learning tools that serve as potential barriers to their implementation and suggest ways to overcome such roadblocks.
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| 29. |
- Bring, Arvid, et al.
(författare)
-
Spatial patterns of decline in pan-arctic hydrological monitoring networks: a vulnerability map
- 2008
-
Ingår i: Northern Hydrology and its Global Role. - 9789979682387 ; , s. 60-66
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The last decades of observed rapid and significant changes to the Arctic hydrological system indicate an ongoing transition to a state not previously observed in recent history, which stresses the need for hydrological and hydrochemical observation networks that are adequate for detecting, understanding and modeling these changes. Recent studies have reported a widespread decline in these networks, but little information is available on where the decline has been most critical, and how it relates to the distribution of socio-economic and climatic pressures on water resources in the pan-Arctic drainage basin. We present a quantitative picture of the spatial patterns of decline in Arctic hydrological monitoring networks. We also analyze which Arctic drainage basins that are left most vulnerable by this decline, due to their combination with socio-economic and climate pressures. Results indicate that for basins where the hydrological monitoring decline has been higher than average, population density and economic production intensity are also frequently above average. Furthermore, diverging spatial patterns in future modeled and recently observed temperature trends makes it difficult to determine the real vulnerability of these basins to temperature change pressures.
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| 30. |
- Bring, Arvid, et al.
(författare)
-
Variability in climate change simulations affects needed long-term riverine nutrient reductions for the Baltic Sea
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 44, s. 381-391
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Changes to runoff due to climate change may influence management of nutrient loading to the sea. Assuming unchanged river nutrient concentrations, we evaluate the effects of changing runoff on commitments to nutrient reductions under the Baltic Sea Action Plan. For several countries, climate projections point to large variability in load changes in relation to reduction targets. These changes either increase loads, making the target more difficult to reach, or decrease them, leading instead to a full achievement of the target. The impact of variability in climate projections varies with the size of the reduction target and is larger for countries with more limited commitments. In the end, a number of focused actions are needed to manage the effects of climate change on nutrient loads: reducing uncertainty in climate projections, deciding on frameworks to identify best performing models with respect to land surface hydrology, and increasing efforts at sustained monitoring of water flow changes.
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| 31. |
- Bring, Arvid, et al.
(författare)
-
Water Information and Water Security in the Arctic
- 2015
-
Ingår i: The New Arctic. - Cham : Springer. - 9783319176017 - 9783319176024 ; , s. 225-238
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Water is common to many environmental changes that are currently observed in the Arctic. To manage environmental change, and related water security challenges that are rising in the Arctic, adequate water information and monitoring is critical. Although water information systems have been deteriorating in the Arctic, there are still opportunities to combine existing data to inform policy decisions on how to manage water security. Furthermore, implementing a set of water security indicators can help identify areas of concern within the region. However, accessible climate change information is not always relevant for the scales of policymaking. In addition, improved representation of water on land in climate models is needed to better inform adaptation.
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| 32. |
- Chen, Yuanying, et al.
(författare)
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Dominant Hydro-Climatic Drivers of Water Temperature, Salinity, and Flow Variability for the Large-Scale System of the Baltic Coastal Wetlands
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Water. - : MDPI. - 2073-4441. ; 11:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For the large-scale coastal wetland system of the Baltic Sea, this study develops a methodology for investigating if and to what degree the variability and changes in certain hydro-climatic drivers control key coastal-marine physical conditions. The studied physical conditions include: (a) water temperature, (b) water salinity, and (c) flow structures (magnitudes and directions of flows between marine basins and the associated coastal zones and wetlands). We use numerical simulations of three hydro-climatically distinct cases to investigate the variations in hydro-climatic drivers and the resulting physical conditions (a-c) among the cases. The studied hydro-climatic forcing variables are: net surface heat flux, wind conditions, saltwater influx from the North Sea, and freshwater runoff from land. For these variables, the available observation-based data show that the total runoff from land is significantly and positively correlated with precipitation on the sea itself, and negatively correlated with saltwater influx from the North Sea to the Baltic Sea. Overall, the physical condition (a-c) variability in the Baltic Sea and its coastal zones is found to be pairwise well-explained by simulation case differences as follows: (a) Net heat flux is a main control of sea water temperature. (b) Runoff from land, along with the correlated salt water influx from the North Sea, controls average sea salinity; with the variability of local river discharges shifting some coastal zones to deviate from the average sea condition. (c) Wind variability and change control the Baltic Sea flow structure, primarily in terms of flow magnitude and less so in terms of flow direction. For specific coastal wetland zones, considerable salinity differences from average Baltic Sea conditions (due to variability in local river discharges) are found for the coasts of Finland and Estonia, while the coastal wetland zones of south-eastern Sweden, and of Estonia and Latvia, emerge as particularly sensitive to wind shifts.
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| 33. |
- de Niet, Julia, et al.
(författare)
-
Benefits of Combining Satellite-Derived Snow Cover Data and Discharge Data to Calibrate a Glaciated Catchment in Sub-Arctic Iceland
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Water. - : MDPI AG. - 2073-4441. ; 12:4
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The benefits of fractional snow cover area, as an additional dataset for calibration, were evaluated for an Icelandic catchment with a low degree of glaciation and limited data. For this purpose, a Hydrological Projections for the Environment (HYPE) model was calibrated for the Geithellnaa catchment in south-east Iceland using daily discharge (Q) data and satellite-retrieved MODIS snow cover (SC) images, in a multi-dataset calibration (MDC) approach. By comparing model results using only daily discharge data with results obtained using both datasets, the value of SC data for model calibration was identified. Including SC data improved the performance of daily discharge simulations by 7% and fractional snow cover area simulations by 11%, compared with using only the daily discharge dataset (SDC). These results indicate that MDC improves the overall performance of the HYPE model, confirming previous findings. Therefore, MDC could improve discharge simulations in areas with extra sources of uncertainty, such as glaciers and snow cover. Since the change in fractional snow cover area was more accurate when MDC was applied, it can be concluded that MDC would also provide more realistic projections when calibrated parameter sets are extrapolated to different situations.
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| 34. |
- Destouni, Georgia, et al.
(författare)
-
Biogeochemical Transformation Pathways through the Land-water Geosphere
- 2014
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Water on land undergoes and participates in many biogeochemical exchanges and changes. A bits-and-pieces approach to these may miss essential aspects of change propagation and transformation by land-water through different segments of the Earth system. This paper proposes a conceptualization of the entire land-water geosphere as a scale-free catchment-wise organised system (Figure 1), emphasizing four key new system aspects compared to traditional hydrosphere/water cycle view: i) distinction of coastal divergent in addition to traditional convergent catchments; ii) physical and social-ecological system coupling through four main nodal zones/interfaces (surface, subsurface, coastal, observation); iii) flow-transport pathways as system coupling agents; iv) multiple interactions with the anthroposphere as integral system parts. Utilizing this conceptualization, we identify distinct patterns of direct anthropogenic change in large-scale water and waterborne nutrient fluxes, emerging across different parts of the world. In general, its embedment directly in the anthroposphere/technosphere makes land-water a key geosphere for understanding and monitoring human-driven biogeochemical changes. Further progress in system-level understanding of such changes requires studies of land-water as a continuous yet structured geosphere following the proposed spatiotemporal pathways of change propagation-transformation.
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| 35. |
- Destouni, Georgia, 1961-, et al.
(författare)
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Needs and means to advance science, policy and management understanding of the freshwater system : A synthesis report
- 2015
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Fragmented and inconsistent understanding of the freshwater system limits our ability to achieve water security and sustainability under the human-driven changes occurring in the Anthropocene. To advance system-level understanding of freshwater, gaps and inconsistencies in knowledge, data, representations and links of processes and subsystems need to be identified and bridged under consideration of the freshwater system as a continuous whole. Based on such identification, a freshwater system conceptualization is developed in this report, which emphasizes four essential, yet often neglected system aspects:i) Distinction of coastal divergent catchments.ii) Four main zones (surface, subsurface, coastal, observation) of different types of freshwater change.iii) Water pathways as system-coupling agents that link and partition water change among the four change zones.iv) Direct interactions with the anthroposphere as integral system pathways across the change zones.We explain and exemplify some key implications of these aspects, identifying in the process also distinct patterns of human-driven changes in large-scale water fluxes and nutrient loads.The present conceptualization provides a basis for common inter- and trans-disciplinary understanding and systematic characterization of the freshwater system function and its changes, and of approaches to their modeling and monitoring. This can be viewed and used as a unifying checklist that can advance science, policy and management of freshwater and related environmental changes across various scales and world regions.
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| 36. |
- Envall, Ida, et al.
(författare)
-
Existing evidence related to soil retention of phosphorus from on-site wastewater treatment systems in boreal and temperate climate zones : a systematic map
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Environmental Evidence. - : Springer Nature. - 2047-2382. ; 12:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: In Sweden there are nearly one million soil-based on-site wastewater treatment systems (OWTSs). OWTSs may contribute to eutrophication of surface waters, due to the discharge of phosphorus (P). Hence, in certain cases, a high P removal rate (up to 90%) of OWTSs is required by Swedish authorities. Since these requirements may have costly consequences to property owners, it is debated whether they are too strict. In this debate, it is often claimed that the soil retention of P occurring in the natural environments may be underestimated by authorities. Soil retention is the inhibition of the transport of P through the ground, due to different chemical, physical and biological processes occurring there. These processes make the P transport slower, which may reduce the unwanted impact on receiving water bodies. However, the efficiency of soil retention of P remains unclear. The objective of this systematic map was to collect, code, organise and elucidate the relevant evidence related to the topic, to be able to guide stakeholders through the evidence base, and to support future research synthesising, commissioning, and funding. The systematic map was carried out in response to needs declared by the Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management but the conclusions should be valid for a wider range of countries across boreo-temperate regions.Methods: Searches were made for peer-reviewed and grey literature using bibliographic databases, search engines, specialist websites, and stakeholder contacts. The references were screened for relevance according to a predefined set of eligibility criteria. A detailed database of the relevant studies was compiled. Data and metadata that enable evaluation and discussion of the character and quality of the evidence base were extracted and coded. Special focus was placed on assessing if existing evidence could contribute to policy and practice decision making. Descriptive information about the evidence base was presented in tables and figures. An interactive evidence atlas and a choropleth were created, displaying the locations of all studies.Review findings: 234 articles out of 10,797 screened records fulfilled the eligibility criteria. These articles contain 256 studies, performed in the field or in the laboratory. Six different study types were identified, based on where the measurements were conducted. Most studies, including laboratory studies, lack replicates. Most field studies are observational case studies.Conclusions: It is not possible to derive valid generic measures of the efficiency of soil retention of P occurring in the natural soil environment from available research. Neither does the evidence base allow for answering the question of the magnitude of the potential impact of OWTSs on the P concentration in recipients on a general basis, or under what conditions OWTSs generally have such an impact. A compilation of groundwater studies may provide examples of how far the P may reach in x years, but the number of groundwater studies is insufficient to draw any general conclusions, given the complexity and variability of the systems. Future research should strive for replicated study designs, more elaborate reporting, and the establishment of a reporting standard.
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| 37. |
- Envall, Ida, et al.
(författare)
-
What evidence exists related to soil retention of phosphorus from on-site wastewater treatment systems in boreal and temperate climate zones? : A systematic map protocol
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Environmental Evidence. - : BMC. - 2047-2382. ; 9:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Soil-based on-site wastewater treatment systems (OWSs) are suspected to contribute to eutrophication of surface waters, due to the discharge of phosphorus (P). However, along the flow path between the facilities and surface waters, different processes contribute to delay the transport of phosphorus through the ground. This may reduce the unwanted impact on receiving water bodies. However, the strength and significance of this so-called soil retention remains unclear. In Sweden, there are nearly one million OWSs. To protect surface waters, a high P removal rate (up to 90%) is often required by the local municipalities. However, since these requirements may have costly consequences to property owners, it is debated as to whether they are too strict. In this debate, it is often claimed that the retention of P occurring in natural environments may be underestimated by authorities. Accordingly, there is a need for a scrutiny of the available evidence related to soil retention of phosphorus from OWSs. This is the objective of the planned systematic map. Focus will be on boreal and temperate climate zones. Methods Searches will be made for peer-reviewed articles and grey literature using bibliographic databases, search engines, specialist websites and stakeholder contacts. The references will be screened for relevance according to a predefined set of eligibility criteria. At stage one, after testing and clarifying the eligibility criteria, the references will be single-screened based on title and abstract. At stage two, potentially relevant references will be screened in full-text independently by two reviewers. We will compile a detailed database of the relevant studies. Moreover, a narrative report will be produced, describing the research landscape in general terms. This will be carried out with a conceptual model, describing the processes involved in P retention in natural environments, as a foundation. It will be discussed where the respective studies/study types fit into the conceptual model, and also evaluated how each study/study type can be related to the overarching question of eutrophication. Moreover, we will describe identified knowledge gaps that warrant further primary research effort, as well as identified knowledge clusters that could be suitable for systematic reviews.
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| 38. |
- Fischer, Sandra, et al.
(författare)
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Present to future sediment transport of the Brahmaputra River : reducing uncertainty in predictions and management
- 2017
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Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 17:2, s. 515-526
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Brahmaputra River in South Asia carries one of the world's highest sediment loads, and the sediment transport dynamics strongly affect the region's ecology and agriculture. However, present understanding of sediment conditions and dynamics is hindered by limited access to hydrological and geomorphological data, which impacts predictive models needed in management. We here synthesize reported peer-reviewed data relevant to sediment transport and perform a sensitivity analysis to identify sensitive and uncertain parameters, using the one-dimensional model HEC-RAS, considering both present and future climatic conditions. Results showed that there is considerable uncertainty in openly available estimates (260-720 Mt yr(-1)) of the annual sediment load for the Brahmaputra River at its downstream Bahadurabad gauging station (Bangladesh). This may aggravate scientific impact studies of planned power plant and reservoir construction in the region, as well as more general effects of ongoing land use change and climate change. We found that data scarcity on sediment grain size distribution, water discharge, and Manning's roughness coefficient had the strongest controls on the modelled sediment load. However, despite uncertainty in absolute loads, we showed that predicted relative changes, including a future increase in sediment load by about 40 % at Bahadurabad by 2075-2100, were consistent across multiple model simulations. Nevertheless, for the future scenarios we found that parameter uncertainty almost doubled for water discharge and river geometry, highlighting that improved information on these parameters could greatly advance the abilities to predict and manage current and future sediment dynamics in the Brahmaputra river basin.
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| 39. |
- Groß, Elisabeth, et al.
(författare)
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Links between Nordic and Arctic hydroclimate and vegetation changes : Contribution to possible landscape-scale nature-based solutions
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Land Degradation and Development. - : Wiley. - 1085-3278 .- 1099-145X. ; 29:10, s. 3663-3673
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In Nordic and Arctic regions, the rapidly warming climate sustains hydroclimatic and vegetation changes in the landscape. There is evidence for an increase in vegetation density in some regions, a trend that is expected as a response to increasing temperature and precipitation. If the hydroclimatic changes are linked to vegetation response, it could be viewed as a landscape-scale nature-based solution (NBS) that could moderate the runoff response, as denser vegetation should lead to increased evapotranspiration and lower runoff. In this paper, we investigate and compare hydroclimatic changes over a set of basins in the Nordic region and northwest America and compare with changes in vegetation density, analyzed using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for three time periods: 1973-1978, 1993-1998, and 2013-2016. Over the period of the 1970s to 1990s, the hydroclimate became warmer and wetter and vegetation density increased, but over a later period from the 1990s to 2010s, vegetation density decreased, despite a continuing warming and wetting of the climate. Although there was a tendency for runoff to decrease in basins where vegetation density increased, the relation between precipitation and runoff was much stronger. Overall, we found weak evidence for vegetation density changes, driven by hydroclimate, to act as NBS on the landscape scale over the studied regions. However, as hydroclimatic changes interact with vegetation changes and their ensuing hydrological responses in complex ways, more detailed investigations are needed to determine the potential NBS effect on the landscape scale across Nordic and Arctic regions.
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| 40. |
- Jarsjö, Jerker, et al.
(författare)
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Hydrological responses to climate change conditioned by historic alterations of land use and water use
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 16:5, s. 1335-1347
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper quantifies and conditions expected hydrological responses in the Aral Sea Drainage Basin (ASDB; occupying 1.3% of the earth's land surface), Central Asia, to multi-model projections of climate change in the region from 20 general circulation models (GCMs). The aim is to investigate how uncertainties of future climate change interact with the effects of historic human re-distributions of water for land irrigation to influence future water fluxes and water resources. So far, historic irrigation changes have greatly amplified water losses by evapotranspiration (ET) in the ASDB, whereas 20th century climate change has not much affected the regional net water loss to the atmosphere. Results show that errors in temperature (T) and precipitation (P) from single GCMs have large influence on projected change trends (for the period 2010-2039) of river runoff (R), even though the ASDB is spatially well resolved by current GCMs. By contrast, observed biases in GCM ensemble mean results have relatively small influence on projected R change trends. Ensemble mean results show that projected future climate change will considerably increase the net water loss to the atmosphere. Furthermore, the ET response strength to any future T change will be further increased by maintained (or increased) irrigation practices, which shows how climate change and water use change can interact in modifying ET (and R). With maintained irrigation practices, R is likely to decrease to near-total depletion, with risk for cascading ecological regime shifts in aquatic ecosystems downstream of irrigated land areas. Without irrigation, the agricultural areas of the principal Syr Darya river basin could sustain a 50% higher T increase (of 2.3 A degrees C instead of the projected 1.5 A degrees C until 2010-2039) before yielding the same consumptive ET increase and associated R decrease as with the present irrigation practices.
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| 41. |
- Ma, Yan, et al.
(författare)
-
Potential for Hydroclimatically Driven Shifts in Infectious Disease Outbreaks : The Case of Tularemia in High-Latitude Regions
- 2019
-
Ingår i: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. - : MDPI AG. - 1661-7827 .- 1660-4601. ; 16:19
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Hydroclimatic changes may be particularly pronounced in high-latitude regions and can influence infectious diseases, jeopardizing regional human and animal health. In this study, we consider the example of tularemia, one of the most studied diseases in high-latitude regions, which is likely to be impacted by large regional hydroclimatic changes. For this disease case, we use a validated statistical model and develop a method for quantifying possible hydroclimatically driven shifts in outbreak conditions. The results show high sensitivity of tularemia outbreaks to certain combinations of hydroclimatic variable values. These values are within the range of past regional observations and may represent just mildly shifted conditions from current hydroclimatic averages. The methodology developed also facilitates relatively simple identification of possible critical hydroclimatic thresholds, beyond which unacceptable endemic disease levels may be reached. These results call for further research on how projected hydroclimatic changes may affect future outbreaks of tularemia and other infectious diseases in high-latitude and other world regions, with particular focus on critical thresholds to high-risk conditions. More research is also needed on the generality and spatiotemporal transferability of statistical disease models.
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| 42. |
- Ma, Yan, 1991-
(författare)
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Quantifying hydroclimatic change impacts on infectious diseases : Signals and geographies from local to global scale
- 2023
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Hydroclimatic change has the potential to directly or indirectly increase the occurrence and expand or shift the geographical range of infectious diseases. This may pose particular threats in the Nordic-Arctic Region, where warming is more rapid than in other parts of the world, but the climate sensitivities of various infectious diseases still remain to be investigated in this and other regions. This thesis aims to further our understanding of and predictive capability for the relationships between hydroclimatic change and infectious diseases. To achieve this aim, statistical correlation relationships were analyzed between seven potentially climate-sensitive infectious diseases and a range of hydroclimatic variables across various geographical scales and parts of the Nordic-Arctic Region. The studied diseases were: borreliosis/Lyme disease, tularemia, leptospirosis, Q fever, TBE, Puumala virus infection, and cryptosporidiosis. Hydroclimatic sensitivity has also been investigated through a statistical disease model, site-specifically parameterized at local scale, for the case of tularemia at different Swedish sites (counties) and for different scenarios of future hydroclimatic change. Moreover, for the relatively widespread Lyme disease and cryptosporidiosis, a scoping review approach has been applied to investigate how the complexity of the hydroclimate-disease relationships is considered and quantified in research so far and what key research gaps remain to be bridged.Results identify distinct hydroclimatic variables that are significantly correlated with six of the seven studied human diseases at large spatial scale over the Nordic-Arctic Region. The indicated hydroclimatic disease-driving variables and associated change relationships are to some degree consistent with previous reasoning-based discussions of climate-sensitivity of infectious diseases as increasing threats for humans. Notable exceptions are TBE and leptospirosis, which tend to decrease with increasing regional temperature and precipitation. Borreliosis (Lyme disease) exhibits consistent climate sensitivity at different geographical scales and region parts, considering the whole or either the southern or the northern part of the studied Nordic-Arctic Region. In contrast, tularemia does not exhibit any particular climate sensitivity signal at the large regional scale, even though such sensitivity is evident in local-based statistical disease models. This shows that, in general, investigations at multiple geographical scales and regions, and with different quantitative approaches are needed to obtain a complete picture of hydroclimate-disease relationships. Furthermore, along a latitudinal gradient across Sweden, the likely most realistic medium climate forcing scenario indicates future disease decreases (intermittent or overall) for the relatively southern Swedish counties, and disease increases of considerable or high degree for the intermediate and more northern counties. The projections also show that scenarios of steeper future climate warming do not necessarily lead to a steeper increase in future disease outbreaks and that uncertainties in the disease projections may be large and stem from both the disease models and the climate models. Important research gaps are further identified in research so far on the hydroclimate-disease relationships for Lyme disease and cryptosporidiosis. The gaps regard in particular water-related and socioeconomic factors for Lyme disease, and land-related factors for cryptosporidiosis. For both diseases, climate and other driver-pressure interactions with host and parasite communities are overall understudied. In addition, Asia and Africa emerge as main geographical research gaps for Lyme disease and cryptosporidiosis, respectively. Overall, the consistencies and controversies emerging from the statistical analysis, the uncertainties appearing in the scenario projections, and the research gaps identified by the scoping review in this thesis indicate possible biases in our understanding of hydroclimate-disease relationships and propose relevant directions for future research.
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| 43. |
- Mård Karlsson, Johanna, 1979-, et al.
(författare)
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Opportunities and limitations to detect climate-related regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems through eco-hydrological monitoring
- 2011
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 6:1, s. 014015-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study has identified and mapped the occurrences of three different types of climate-driven and hydrologically mediated regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems: (i) from tundra to shrubland or forest, (ii) from terrestrial ecosystems to thermokarst lakes and wetlands, and (iii) from thermokarst lakes and wetlands to terrestrial ecosystems. The area coverage of these shifts is compared to that of hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring relevant to their possible detection. Hotspot areas are identified within the Yukon, Mackenzie, Barents/Norwegian Sea and Ob river basins, where systematic water monitoring overlaps with ecological monitoring and observed ecosystem regime shift occurrences, providing opportunities for linked eco-hydrological investigations that can improve our regime shift understanding, and detection and prediction capabilities. Overall, most of the total areal extent of shifts from tundra to shrubland and from terrestrial to aquatic regimes is in hydrologically and hydrochemically unmonitored areas. For shifts from aquatic to terrestrial regimes, related water and waterborne nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes are relatively well monitored, while waterborne carbon fluxes are unmonitored. There is a further large spatial mismatch between the coverage of hydrological and that of ecological monitoring, implying a need for more coordinated monitoring efforts to detect the waterborne mediation and propagation of changes and impacts associated with Arctic ecological regime shifts.
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| 44. |
- Prowse, T., et al.
(författare)
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Arctic Freshwater Synthesis : Summary of key emerging issues
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences. - 2169-8953 .- 2169-8961. ; 120:10, s. 1887-1893
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In response to a joint request from the World Climate Research Program's Climate and Cryosphere Project, the International Arctic Science Committee, and the Arctic Council's Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program an updated scientific assessment has been conducted of the Arctic Freshwater System (AFS), entitled the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis (AFS(sigma)). The major reason behind the joint request was an increasing concern that changes to the AFS have produced, and could produce even greater, changes to biogeophysical and socioeconomic systems of special importance to northern residents and also produce extra-Arctic climatic effects that will have global consequences. The AFS(sigma) was structured around six key thematic areas: atmosphere, oceans, terrestrial hydrology, terrestrial ecology, resources, and modeling, the review of each coauthored by an international group of scientists and published as separate manuscripts in this special issue of Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences. This AFS(sigma) summary manuscript reviews key issues that emerged during the conduct of the synthesis, especially those that are cross-thematic in nature, and identifies future research required to address such issues.
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| 45. |
- Prowse, Terry, et al.
(författare)
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Arctic Freshwater Synthesis : Introduction
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences. - 2169-8953 .- 2169-8961. ; 120:11, s. 2121-2131
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In response to a joint request from the World Climate Research Program’s Climate and Cryosphere Project, the International Arctic Science Committee, and the Arctic Council’s Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program, an updated scientific assessment has been conducted of the Arctic Freshwater System, entitled the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis (AFS). The major reason for joint request was an increasing concern that changes to the Arctic Freshwater System have produced, and could produce even greater, changes to biogeophysical and socioeconomic systems of special importance to northern residents and also produce extra-Arctic climatic effects that will have global consequences. Hence, the key objective of the AFS was to produce an updated, comprehensive, and integrated review of the structure and function of the entire Arctic Freshwater System. The AFS was organized around six key thematic areas: atmosphere, oceans, terrestrial hydrology, terrestrial ecology, resources and modeling, and the review of each coauthored by an international group of scientists and published as separate articles in this special section of Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences. This Introduction reviews the motivations for, and foci of, previous studies of the Arctic Freshwater System, discusses criteria used to define the domain of the Arctic Freshwater System, and details key characteristics of the definition adopted for the AFS.
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| 46. |
- Rennermalm, Asa K., et al.
(författare)
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Spatial and Scale-Dependent Controls on North American Pan-Arctic Minimum River Discharge
- 2012
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Ingår i: Geographical Analysis. - : Wiley. - 0016-7363 .- 1538-4632. ; 44:3, s. 202-218
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Spatial patterns of minimum monthly river discharge in the North American Pan-Arctic and its potential controls are explored with geographically weighted regression (GWR). Minimum discharge is indicative of soil water conditions; therefore, understanding spatial variability of its controls may provide insights into patterns of hydrologic change. Here, GWR models are applied to determine a suitable combination of independent variables selected from a set of eight variables. A model specification with annual mean river discharge, temperature at time of minimum discharge, and biome describes well the spatial patterns in minimum discharge. However, minimum discharge in larger watersheds is influenced more by temperature and biome distributions than it is in small basins, suggesting that scale is critical for understanding minimum river discharge. This study is the first to apply GWR to explore spatial variation in Pan-Arctic hydrology.
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| 47. |
- Strandmark, Alma, et al.
(författare)
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Climate change effects on the Baltic Sea borderland between land and sea
- 2015
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 44, s. s28-S38
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Coastal habitats are situated on the border between land and sea, and ecosystem structure and functioning is influenced by both marine and terrestrial processes. Despite this, most scientific studies and monitoring are conducted either with a terrestrial or an aquatic focus. To address issues concerning climate change impacts in coastal areas, a cross-ecosystem approach is necessary. Since habitats along the Baltic coastlines vary in hydrology, natural geography, and ecology, climate change projections for Baltic shore ecosystems are bound to be highly speculative. Societal responses to climate change in the Baltic coastal ecosystems should have an ecosystem approach and match the biophysical realities of the Baltic Sea area. Knowledge about ecosystem processes and their responses to a changing climate should be integrated within the decision process, both locally and nationally, in order to increase the awareness of, and to prepare for climate change impacts in coastal areas of the Baltic Sea.
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| 48. |
- Törnqvist, Rebecka, et al.
(författare)
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Evolution of the hydro-climate system in the Lake Baikal basin
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 519, s. 1953-1962
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climatic changes can profoundly alter hydrological conditions in river basins. Lake Baikal is the deepest and largest freshwater reservoir on Earth, and has a unique ecosystem with numerous endemic animal and plant species. We here identify long-term historical (1938-2009) and projected future hydro-climatic trends in the Selenga River Basin, which is the largest sub-basin (>60% inflow) of Lake Baikal. Our analysis is based on long-term river monitoring and historical hydro-climatic observation data, as well as ensemble mean and 22 individual model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). Study of the latter considers a historical period (from 1961) and projections for 2010-2039 and 2070-2099. Observations show almost twice as fast warming as the global average during the period 1938-2009. Decreased intra-annual variability of river discharge over this period indicates basin-scale permafrost degradation. CMIP5 ensemble projections show further future warming, implying continued permafrost thaw. Modelling of runoff change, however, is highly uncertain, with many models (64%) and their ensemble mean failing to reproduce historical behaviour, and with indicated future increase being small relative to the large differences among individual model results.
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