| 1. |
- Abazov, V. M., et al.
(author)
-
The upgraded DO detector
- 2006
-
In: Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research Section A. - : Elsevier BV. - 0168-9002 .- 1872-9576. ; 565:2, s. 463-537
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The DO experiment enjoyed a very successful data-collection run at the Fermilab Tevatron collider between 1992 and 1996. Since then, the detector has been upgraded to take advantage of improvements to the Tevatron and to enhance its physics capabilities. We describe the new elements of the detector, including the silicon microstrip tracker, central fiber tracker, solenoidal magnet, preshower detectors, forward muon detector, and forward proton detector. The uranium/liquid -argon calorimeters and central muon detector, remaining from Run 1, are discussed briefly. We also present the associated electronics, triggering, and data acquisition systems, along with the design and implementation of software specific to DO.
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| 2. |
- Abazov, V. M., et al.
(author)
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Measurement of the B-s(0) lifetime using semileptonic decays
- 2006
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In: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 97:24, s. 241801-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report a measurement of the B-s(0) lifetime in the semileptonic decay channel B-s(0)-> D-s(-)mu(+)nu X (and its charge conjugate), using approximately 0.4 fb(-1) of data collected with the D0 detector during 2002-2004. Using 5176 reconstructed D-s(-)mu(+) signal events, we have measured the B-s(0) lifetime to be tau(B-s(0))=1.398 +/- 0.044(stat)(-0.025)(+0.028)(syst) ps. This is the most precise measurement of the B-s(0) lifetime to date.
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| 3. |
- Abazov, V. M., et al.
(author)
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Search for a heavy resonance decaying into a Z plus jet final state in p(p)over-bar collisions at root s=1.96 TeV using the D0 detector
- 2006
-
In: Physical Review D - Particles, Fields, Gravitation and Cosmology. - 1550-7998 .- 1550-2368. ; 74:1, s. 011104-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We have searched for a heavy resonance decaying into a Z+jet final state in p (p) over bar collisions at a center of mass energy of 1.96 TeV at the Fermilab Tevatron collider using the D0 detector. No indication for such a resonance was found in a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 370 pb(-1). We set upper limits on the cross section times branching fraction for heavy resonance production at the 95% C.L. as a function of the resonance mass and width. The limits are interpreted within the framework of a specific model of excited quark production.
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| 4. |
- Abazov, V. M., et al.
(author)
-
Search for neutral Higgs bosons decaying to tau pairs in p(p)over-bar collisions at root s=1.96 TeV
- 2006
-
In: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 97:12, s. 121802-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A search for the production of neutral Higgs bosons Phi decaying into tau(+)tau(-) final states in p (p) over bar collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV is presented. The data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of approximately 325 pb(-1), were collected by the D0 experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. Since no excess compared to the expectation from standard model processes is found, limits on the production cross section times branching ratio are set. The results are combined with those obtained from the D0 search for Phi b((b) over bar)-> b (b) over barb((b) over bar) and are interpreted in the minimal supersymmetric standard model.
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| 5. |
- Abazov, V. M., et al.
(author)
-
Search for particles decaying into a Z boson and a photon in p(p)over-bar collisions at root s=1.96 TeV
- 2006
-
In: Physics Letters B. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693 .- 1873-2445. ; 641:6, s. 415-422
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present the results of a search for a new particle X produced in p (p) over bar collisions at root s- = 1.96 TeV and subsequently decaying to Z gamma. The search uses 0.3 fb(-1) of data collected with the DO detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We set limits on the production cross section times the branching fraction sigma(p (p) over bar -> X) x B(X -> Z gamma) that range from 0.4 to 3.5 pb at the 95% C.L. for X with invariant masses between 100 and 1000 GeV/c(2), over a wide range of X decay widths.
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| 6. |
- Abazov, V. M., et al.
(author)
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Search for R-parity violating supersymmetry via the LL(E)over-bar couplings lambda(121), lambda(122) or lambda(133) in p(p)over-bar collisions at root s=1.96 TeV
- 2006
-
In: Physics Letters B. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693 .- 1873-2445. ; 638:5-6, s. 441-449
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A search for gaugino pair production with a trilepton signature in the framework of R-parity violating supersymmetry via the couplings; lambda(121), lambda(122), or lambda(133) is presented. The data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of L approximate to 360 pb(-1), were collected from April 2002 to August 2004 with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider, at a center-of-mass energy of root s = 1.96 TeV. This analysis considers final states with three charged leptons with the flavor combinations eel, mu mu l, and ee tau (l = e or mu). No evidence for supersymmetry is found and limits at the 95% confidence level are set on the gaugino pair production cross section and lower bounds on the masses of the lightest neutralino and chargino are derived in two supersymmetric models.
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| 7. |
- Abazov, V. M., et al.
(author)
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Search for resonant second generation slepton production at the Fermilab Tevatron
- 2006
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In: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 97:11, s. 111801-
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present a search for supersymmetry in the R-parity violating resonant production and decay of smuons and muon sneutrinos in the channels mu ->chi(0)(1)mu, mu ->chi(0)(2,3,4)mu, and nu(mu)->chi(+/-)(1,2)mu. We analyzed 0.38 fb(-1) of integrated luminosity collected between April 2002 and August 2004 with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. The observed number of events is in agreement with the standard model expectation, and we calculate 95% C.L. limits on the slepton production cross section times branching fraction to gaugino plus muon, as a function of slepton and gaugino masses. In the framework of minimal supergravity, we set limits on the coupling parameter lambda(')(211), extending significantly previous results obtained in Run I of the Tevatron and at the CERN LEP collider.
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| 8. |
- Abazov, V. M., et al.
(author)
-
Search for the rare decay B-s(0)->phi mu(+)mu(-) with the D0 detector
- 2006
-
In: Physical Review D - Particles, Fields, Gravitation and Cosmology. - 1550-7998 .- 1550-2368. ; 74:3, s. 031107-
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present a search for the flavor-changing neutral current decay B-s(0)->phi mu(+)mu(-) using about 0.45 fb(-1) of data collected in p (p) over bar collisions at root s=1.96 TeV with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We find an upper limit on the branching ratio of this decay normalized to B-s(0)-> J/psi phi of B(B-s(0)->phi mu(+)mu(-))/B(B-s(0)-> J/psi phi)< 4.4x10(-3) at the 95% C.L. Using the central value of the world average branching fraction of B-s(0)-> J/psi phi, the limit corresponds to B(B-s(0)->phi mu(+)mu(-))< 4.1x10(-6) at the 95% C.L., the most stringent upper bound to date.
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| 9. |
- Abazov, V. M., et al.
(author)
-
Measurement of beta (t -> Wb)/beta(t -> Wq) at root s=1.96 TeV
- 2006
-
In: Physics Letters B. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693 .- 1873-2445. ; 639:6, s. 616-622
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present the measurement of R = B(t -> Wb)/B(t -> Wq) in pp collisions at root s = 1.96 TeV, using 230 pb(-1) of data collected by the DO experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We fit simultaneously R and the number (N-tt) of selected top quark pairs (tt), to the number of identified b-quark jets in events with one electron or one muon, three or more jets, and high transverse energy imbalance. To improve sensitivity, kinematical properties of events with no identified b-quark jets are included in the fit. We measure R = 1.03(-0.17)(0.19) (stat + syst), in good agreement with the standard model. We set lower limits of R > 0.61 and vertical bar V-tb vertical bar > 0.78 at 95% confidence level.
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| 10. |
- Abazov, V. M., et al.
(author)
-
Measurement of the isolated photon cross section in p(p)over-bar collisions at root s=1.96 TeV
- 2006
-
In: Physics Letters B. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693 .- 1873-2445. ; 639:3-4, s. 151-158
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The cross section for the inclusive production of isolated photons has been measured in p (p) over bar collisions at root s = 1.96 TeV with the DO detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. The photons span transverse momenta 23 to 300 GeV and have pseudorapidity vertical bar n vertical bar < 0.9. The cross section is compared with the results from two next-to-leading order perturbative QCD calculations. The theoretical predictions agree with the measurement within uncertainties.
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| 11. |
- Abazov, V. M., et al.
(author)
-
Search for associated Higgs boson production WH -> WWW*-> l(+/-)nu l('+/-)nu(')+X in p(p)over-bar collisions at root S=1.96 TeV
- 2006
-
In: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 97:15, s. 151804-
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present a search for associated Higgs boson production in the process p (p) over bar -> WH -> WWW*-> l(+/-)nu l('+/-)nu(')+X in final states containing two like-sign isolated electrons or muons (e(+/-)e(+/-), e(+/-)mu(+/-), or mu(+/-)mu(+/-)). The search is based on D0 run II data samples corresponding to integrated luminosities of 360-380 pb(-1). No excess is observed over the predicted standard model background. We set 95% C.L. upper limits on sigma ->(p (p) over bar WH) x Br(H -> WW*) between 3.2 and 2.8 pb for Higgs boson masses from 115 to 175 GeV.
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
- Abazov, V. M., et al.
(author)
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Search for the standard model Higgs boson in the p(p)over-bar -> ZH -> v(v)over-barb(b)over-bar channel
- 2006
-
In: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 97:16, s. 161803-
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report a search for the standard model (SM) Higgs boson based on data collected by the D0 experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 260 pb(-1). We study events with missing transverse energy and two acoplanar b jets, which provide sensitivity to the ZH production cross section in the nu nu bb channel, and to WH production when the lepton from the W ->center dot nu decay is undetected. The data are consistent with the SM background expectation, and we set 95% C.L. upper limits on sigma(pp -> ZH/WH) x B(H -> bb) from 3.4/8.3 to 2.5/6.3 pb, for Higgs-boson masses between 105 and 135 GeV.
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| 14. |
- Abazov, V. M., et al.
(author)
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Search for W ' boson production in the W ' -> t(b)over-bar decay channel
- 2006
-
In: Physics Letters B. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693 .- 1873-2445. ; 641:6, s. 423-431
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present a search for the production of a new heavy gauge boson W' that decays to a top quark and a bottom quark. We have analyzed 230 pb(-1) of data collected with the DO detector at the Fermilab Tevatron collider at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV. No significant excess of events above the standard model expectation is found in any region of the final state invariant mass distribution. We set upper limits on the production cross section of W' bosons times branching ratio to top quarks at the 95% confidence level for several different W, boson masses. We exclude masses between 200 and 610 GeV for a W' boson with standard-model-like couplings, between 200 and 630 GeV for a W, boson with right-handed couplings that is allowed to decay to both leptons and quarks, and between 200 and 670 GeV for a W' boson with right-handed couplings that is only allowed to decay to quarks.
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| 15. |
- Chang, A. Y., et al.
(author)
-
Past, present, and future of global health financing : A review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 195 countries, 1995-2050
- 2019
-
In: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 393:10187, s. 2233-2260
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries. Methods: We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories-government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending-and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health. Findings: Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4.00% (95% uncertainty interval 3.89-4.12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2.72% [2.61-2.84]) and increased by less than $1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5.55% [5.18-5.95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3.71% [3.10-4.34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $8.0 trillion (7.8-8.1) in 2016 (comprising 8.6% [8.4-8.7] of the global economy and $10.3 trillion [10.1-10.6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$5252 (5184-5319) in high-income countries, $491 (461-524) in upper-middle-income countries, $81 (74-89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $40 (38-43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0.4% (0.3-0.4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10.0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($9.5 billion, 24.3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6.27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China’s contribution to DAH ($644.7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $15.0 trillion (14.0-16.0) by 2050 (reaching 9.4% [7.6-11.3] of the global economy and $21.3 trillion [19.8-23.1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1.84% (1.68-2.02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0.6% (0.6-0.7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15.7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130.2 (122.9-136.9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125.9 [113.7-138.1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments’ increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending. Interpretation: Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets. © 2019 The Author(s).
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| 16. |
- Dieleman, J., et al.
(author)
-
Evolution and patterns of global health financing 1995-2014 : Development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries
- 2017
-
In: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 389:10083, s. 1981-2004
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: An adequate amount of prepaid resources for health is important to ensure access to health services and for the pursuit of universal health coverage. Previous studies on global health financing have described the relationship between economic development and health financing. In this study, we further explore global health financing trends and examine how the sources of funds used, types of services purchased, and development assistance for health disbursed change with economic development. We also identify countries that deviate from the trends. Methods: We estimated national health spending by type of care and by source, including development assistance for health, based on a diverse set of data including programme reports, budget data, national estimates, and 964 National Health Accounts. These data represent health spending for 184 countries from 1995 through 2014. We converted these data into a common inflation-adjusted and purchasing power-adjusted currency, and used non-linear regression methods to model the relationship between health financing, time, and economic development. Findings: Between 1995 and 2014, economic development was positively associated with total health spending and a shift away from a reliance on development assistance and out-of-pocket (OOP) towards government spending. The largest absolute increase in spending was in high-income countries, which increased to purchasing power-adjusted $5221 per capita based on an annual growth rate of 3.0%. The largest health spending growth rates were in upper-middle-income (5.9) and lower-middle-income groups (5.0), which both increased spending at more than 5% per year, and spent $914 and $267 per capita in 2014, respectively. Spending in low-income countries grew nearly as fast, at 4.6%, and health spending increased from $51 to $120 per capita. In 2014, 59.2% of all health spending was financed by the government, although in low-income and lower-middle-income countries, 29.1% and 58.0% of spending was OOP spending and 35.7% and 3.0% of spending was development assistance. Recent growth in development assistance for health has been tepid; between 2010 and 2016, it grew annually at 1.8%, and reached US$37.6 billion in 2016. Nonetheless, there is a great deal of variation revolving around these averages. 29 countries spend at least 50% more than expected per capita, based on their level of economic development alone, whereas 11 countries spend less than 50% their expected amount. Interpretation: Health spending remains disparate, with low-income and lower-middle-income countries increasing spending in absolute terms the least, and relying heavily on OOP spending and development assistance. Moreover, tremendous variation shows that neither time nor economic development guarantee adequate prepaid health resources, which are vital for the pursuit of universal health coverage. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 17. |
- Dieleman, J. L., et al.
(author)
-
Future and potential spending on health 2015-40 : Development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries
- 2017
-
In: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 389:10083, s. 2005-2030
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods: We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings: We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to $24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and $195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation: Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential. © The Author(s).
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| 18. |
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| 19. |
- Elsik, Christine G., et al.
(author)
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The Genome Sequence of Taurine Cattle : A Window to Ruminant Biology and Evolution
- 2009
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In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 324:5926, s. 522-528
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- To understand the biology and evolution of ruminants, the cattle genome was sequenced to about sevenfold coverage. The cattle genome contains a minimum of 22,000 genes, with a core set of 14,345 orthologs shared among seven mammalian species of which 1217 are absent or undetected in noneutherian (marsupial or monotreme) genomes. Cattle-specific evolutionary breakpoint regions in chromosomes have a higher density of segmental duplications, enrichment of repetitive elements, and species-specific variations in genes associated with lactation and immune responsiveness. Genes involved in metabolism are generally highly conserved, although five metabolic genes are deleted or extensively diverged from their human orthologs. The cattle genome sequence thus provides a resource for understanding mammalian evolution and accelerating livestock genetic improvement for milk and meat production.
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| 20. |
- Thomas, H. J. D., et al.
(author)
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Global plant trait relationships extend to the climatic extremes of the tundra biome
- 2020
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In: Nature Communications. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2041-1723. ; 11:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The majority of variation in six traits critical to the growth, survival and reproduction of plant species is thought to be organised along just two dimensions, corresponding to strategies of plant size and resource acquisition. However, it is unknown whether global plant trait relationships extend to climatic extremes, and if these interspecific relationships are confounded by trait variation within species. We test whether trait relationships extend to the cold extremes of life on Earth using the largest database of tundra plant traits yet compiled. We show that tundra plants demonstrate remarkably similar resource economic traits, but not size traits, compared to global distributions, and exhibit the same two dimensions of trait variation. Three quarters of trait variation occurs among species, mirroring global estimates of interspecific trait variation. Plant trait relationships are thus generalizable to the edge of global trait-space, informing prediction of plant community change in a warming world.
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| 21. |
- Geach, J.E., et al.
(author)
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The SCUBA-2 Cosmology Legacy Survey: 850 μm maps, catalogues and number counts
- 2017
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In: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 465:2, s. 1789-1806
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present a catalogue of similar to 3000 submillimetre sources detected (>= 3.5 sigma) at 850 mu m over similar to 5 deg(2) surveyed as part of the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT) SCUBA-2 Cosmology Legacy Survey (S2CLS). This is the largest survey of its kind at 850 mu m, increasing the sample size of 850 mu m selected submillimetre galaxies by an order of magnitude. The wide 850 mu m survey component of S2CLS covers the extragalactic fields: UKIDSS-UDS, COSMOS, Akari-NEP, Extended Groth Strip, Lockman Hole North, SSA22 and GOODS-North. The average 1s depth of S2CLS is 1.2 mJy beam(-1), approaching the SCUBA-2 850 mu m confusion limit, which we determine to be sigma(c) approximate to 0.8 mJy beam(-1). We measure the 850 mu m number counts, reducing the Poisson errors on the differential counts to approximately 4 per cent at S-850 approximate to 3 mJy. With several independent fields, we investigate field-to-field variance, finding that the number counts on 0.5 degrees-1 degrees scales are generally within 50 per cent of the S2CLS mean for S-850 > 3 mJy, with scatter consistent with the Poisson and estimated cosmic variance uncertainties, although there is a marginal (2 sigma) density enhancement in GOODS-North. The observed counts are in reasonable agreement with recent phenomenological and semi-analytic models, although determining the shape of the faint-end slope (S-850 < 3 mJy) remains a key test. The large solid angle of S2CLS allows us to measure the bright-end counts: at S-850 > 10 mJy there are approximately 10 sources per square degree, and we detect the distinctive up-turn in the number counts indicative of the detection of local sources of 850 mu m emission
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| 22. |
- Kattge, Jens, et al.
(author)
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TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access
- 2020
-
In: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 26:1, s. 119-188
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives.
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| 23. |
- Thomas, H. J.D., et al.
(author)
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Traditional plant functional groups explain variation in economic but not size-related traits across the tundra biome
- 2019
-
In: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 28:2, s. 78-95
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- © 2018 The Authors Global Ecology and Biogeography Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd Aim: Plant functional groups are widely used in community ecology and earth system modelling to describe trait variation within and across plant communities. However, this approach rests on the assumption that functional groups explain a large proportion of trait variation among species. We test whether four commonly used plant functional groups represent variation in six ecologically important plant traits. Location: Tundra biome. Time period: Data collected between 1964 and 2016. Major taxa studied: 295 tundra vascular plant species. Methods: We compiled a database of six plant traits (plant height, leaf area, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf nitrogen, seed mass) for tundra species. We examined the variation in species-level trait expression explained by four traditional functional groups (evergreen shrubs, deciduous shrubs, graminoids, forbs), and whether variation explained was dependent upon the traits included in analysis. We further compared the explanatory power and species composition of functional groups to alternative classifications generated using post hoc clustering of species-level traits. Results: Traditional functional groups explained significant differences in trait expression, particularly amongst traits associated with resource economics, which were consistent across sites and at the biome scale. However, functional groups explained 19% of overall trait variation and poorly represented differences in traits associated with plant size. Post hoc classification of species did not correspond well with traditional functional groups, and explained twice as much variation in species-level trait expression. Main conclusions: Traditional functional groups only coarsely represent variation in well-measured traits within tundra plant communities, and better explain resource economic traits than size-related traits. We recommend caution when using functional group approaches to predict tundra ecosystem change, or ecosystem functions relating to plant size, such as albedo or carbon storage. We argue that alternative classifications or direct use of specific plant traits could provide new insight into ecological prediction and modelling.
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| 24. |
- Pfaller, M.A., et al.
(author)
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Twelve years of fluconazole in clinical practice : Global-trends in species distribution and fluconazole susceptibility of bloodstream isolates of Candida
- 2004
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In: Clinical Microbiology and Infection. - : Elsevier BV. - 1198-743X .- 1469-0691. ; 10:SUPPL. 1, s. 11-23
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We determined the species distribution and in-vitro susceptibility of 6082 bloodstream infection (BSI) isolates of Candida spp. collected from 250 medical centres in 32 nations over a 10-year period from 1992 through 2001. The species included 3401 C. albicans, 984 C. glabrata, 796 C. parapsilosis, 585 C. tropicalis, 153 C. krusei, 67 C. lusitaniae, 48 C. guilliermondii, 10 C. famata, 10 C. kefyr, six C. pelliculosa, five C. rugosa, four C. lipolytica, three C. dubliniensis, three C. inconspicua, two C. sake and one isolate each of C. lambica, C. norvegensis and C. zeylanoides. Minimum inhibitory concentration determinations were made using the National Committee for Clinical Laboratory Standards reference broth microdilution method. Variation in the rank order and frequency of the different species of Candida was observed over time and by geographic area. The proportion of BSI due to C. albicans and C. glabrata increased and C. parapsilosis decreased over time in Canada, the USA and Europe. C. glabrata was an infrequent cause of BSI in Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region. Very little variation in fluconazole susceptibility was observed among isolates of C. albicans, C. tropicalis and C. parapsilosis. These species accounted for 78% of all BSI and remained highly susceptible (91-100% susceptible) to fluconazole from 1992 to 2001 irrespective of geographic origin. The prevalence of fluconazole resistance among C. glabrata isolates was variable both over time and among the various countries and regions. Resistance to fluconazole among C. glabrata isolates was greatest in the USA and varied by US census region (range 0-23%). These observations are generally encouraging relative to the sustained usefulness of fluconazole as a systemically active antifungal agent for the treatment of candida BSI. © 2004 Copyright by the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.
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| 25. |
- Geach, J.E., et al.
(author)
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The SCUBA-2 Cosmology Legacy Survey: blank-field number counts of 450-mu m-selected galaxies and their contribution to the cosmic infrared background
- 2013
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In: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 432:1, s. 53-61
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The first deep blank-field 450 mu m map (1 sigma approximate to 1.3 mJy) from the Submillimetre Common-User Bolometer Array-2 SCUBA-2 Cosmology Legacy Survey (S2CLS), conducted with the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT) is presented. Our map covers 140 arcmin(2) of the Cosmological Evolution Survey field, in the footprint of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Cosmic Assembly Near-Infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey. Using 60 submillimetre galaxies detected at >= 3.75s, we evaluate the number counts of 450-mu m-selected galaxies with flux densities S-450 > 5 mJy. The 8 arcsec JCMT beam and high sensitivity of SCUBA-2 now make it possible to directly resolve a larger fraction of the cosmic infrared background (CIB, peaking at. similar to 200 mu m) into the individual galaxies responsible for its emission than has previously been possible at this wavelength. At S450 > 5 mJy, we resolve (7.4 +/- 0.7) x 10(-2) MJy sr(-1) of the CIB at 450 mu m (equivalent to 16 +/- 7 per cent of the absolute brightness measured by the Cosmic Background Explorer at this wavelength) into point sources. A further similar to 40 per cent of the CIB can be recovered through a statistical stack of 24 mu m emitters in this field, indicating that the majority (approximate to 60 per cent) of the CIB at 450 mu m is emitted by galaxies with S450 > 2 mJy. The average redshift of 450 mu m emitters identified with an optical/near-infrared counterpart is estimated to be = 1.3, implying that the galaxies in the sample are in the ultraluminous class (LIR approximate to 1.1 x 1012 L approximate to). If the galaxies contributing to the statistical stack lie at similar redshifts, then the majority of the CIB at 450 mu m is emitted by galaxies in the luminous infrared galaxy (LIRG) class with LIR > 3.6 x 1011 L-circle dot.
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| 26. |
- Sumaila, U. Rashid, et al.
(author)
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WTO must ban harmful fisheries subsidies
- 2021
-
In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 374:6567, s. 544-544
-
Journal article (other academic/artistic)
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| 27. |
- Björkman, Anne, 1981, et al.
(author)
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Plant functional trait change across a warming tundra biome
- 2018
-
In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 562:7725, s. 57-62
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The tundra is warming more rapidly than any other biome on Earth, and the potential ramifications are far-reaching because of global feedback effects between vegetation and climate. A better understanding of how environmental factors shape plant structure and function is crucial for predicting the consequences of environmental change for ecosystem functioning. Here we explore the biome-wide relationships between temperature, moisture and seven key plant functional traits both across space and over three decades of warming at 117 tundra locations. Spatial temperature–trait relationships were generally strong but soil moisture had a marked influence on the strength and direction of these relationships, highlighting the potentially important influence of changes in water availability on future trait shifts in tundra plant communities. Community height increased with warming across all sites over the past three decades, but other traits lagged far behind predicted rates of change. Our findings highlight the challenge of using space-for-time substitution to predict the functional consequences of future warming and suggest that functions that are tied closely to plant height will experience the most rapid change. They also reveal the strength with which environmental factors shape biotic communities at the coldest extremes of the planet and will help to improve projections of functional changes in tundra ecosystems with climate warming.
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| 28. |
- Schuur, E. A. G., et al.
(author)
-
Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change
- 2013
-
In: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 119:2, s. 359-374
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19-45 Pg C by 2040, 162-288 Pg C by 2100, and 381-616 Pg C by 2300 in CO2 equivalent using 100-year CH4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH4 even though CH4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.
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| 29. |
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| 30. |
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| 31. |
- Cornelissen, Johannes H C, et al.
(author)
-
Global negative vegetation feedback to climate warming responses of leaf litter decomposition rates in cold biomes
- 2007
-
In: Ecology Letters. - : Wiley. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 10:7, s. 619-627
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Whether climate change will turn cold biomes from large long-term carbon sinks into sources is hotly debated because of the great potential for ecosystem-mediated feedbacks to global climate. Critical are the direction, magnitude and generality of climate responses of plant litter decomposition. Here, we present the first quantitative analysis of the major climate-change-related drivers of litter decomposition rates in cold northern biomes worldwide.Leaf litters collected from the predominant species in 33 global change manipulation experiments in circum-arctic-alpine ecosystems were incubated simultaneously in two contrasting arctic life zones. We demonstrate that longer-term, large-scale changes to leaf litter decomposition will be driven primarily by both direct warming effects and concomitant shifts in plant growth form composition, with a much smaller role for changes in litter quality within species. Specifically, the ongoing warming-induced expansion of shrubs with recalcitrant leaf litter across cold biomes would constitute a negative feedback to global warming. Depending on the strength of other (previously reported) positive feedbacks of shrub expansion on soil carbon turnover, this may partly counteract direct warming enhancement of litter decomposition.
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| 32. |
- Abbott, Benjamin W., et al.
(author)
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Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment
- 2016
-
In: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:3
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
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| 33. |
- Carpenter, Stephen R., et al.
(author)
-
Accelerate Synthesis in Ecology and Environmental Sciences
- 2009
-
In: BioScience. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0006-3568 .- 1525-3244. ; 59:8, s. 699-701
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Ecology is a leading discipline in the synthesis of diverse knowledge. Ecologists have had considerable experience in bringing together diverse, multinational data sets, disciplines, and cultural perspectives to address a wide range of issues in basic and applied science. Now is the time to build on this foundation and invest in ecological synthesis through new national or international programs. While synthesis takes place through many mechanisms, including individual efforts, working groups, and research networks, centers are extraordinarily effective institutional settings for advancing synthesis projects.
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| 34. |
- Chapin III, F.S., et al.
(author)
-
Polar Systems
- 2006
-
In: Millenium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 - Current State and Trends. - 1559632283 - 9781559632287 ; 1
-
Book chapter (other academic/artistic)
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| 35. |
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| 36. |
- Cornelissen, C, et al.
(author)
-
Global change and arctic ecosystems : is lichen decline a function of increases in vascular plant biomass?
- 2001
-
In: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0022-0477 .- 1365-2745. ; 89:6, s. 984-994
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- 1 Macrolichens are important for the functioning and biodiversity of cold northern ecosystems and their reindeer-based cultures and economics. 2 We hypothesized that, in climatically milder parts of the Arctic, where ecosystems have relatively dense plant canopies, climate warming and/or increased nutrient availability leads to decline in macrolichen abundance as a function of increased abundance of vascular plants. In more open high-arctic or arctic-alpine plant communities such a relationship should be absent. To test this, we synthesized cross-continental arctic vegetation data from ecosystem manipulation experiments simulating mostly warming and increased nutrient availability, and compared these with similar data from natural environmental gradients. 3 Regressions between abundance or biomass of macrolichens and vascular plants were consistently negative across the subarctic and mid-arctic experimental studies. Such a pattern did not emerge in the coldest high-arctic or arctic-alpine sites. The slopes of the negative regressions increased across 10 sites as the climate became milder (as indicated by a simple climatic index) or the vegetation denser (greater site above-ground biomass). 4 Seven natural vegetation gradients in the lower-altitude sub- and mid-arctic zone confirmed the patterns seen in the experimental studies, showing consistent negative relationships between abundance of macrolichens and vascular plants. 5 We conclude that the data supported the hypothesis. Macrolichens in climatically milder arctic ecosystems may decline if and where global changes cause vascular plants to increase in abundance. 6 However, a refining of our findings is needed, for instance by integrating other abiotic and biotic effects such as reindeer grazing feedback on the balance between vascular plants and lichens.
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| 37. |
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| 38. |
- Jansson, Roland, et al.
(author)
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Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems : prospects for the European north
- 2015
-
In: Ecology and Society. - : Resilience Alliance. - 1708-3087. ; 20:3
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Humans depend on services provided by ecosystems, and how services are affected by climate change is increasingly studied. Few studies, however, address changes likely to affect services from seminatural ecosystems. We analyzed ecosystem goods and services in natural and seminatural systems, specifically how they are expected to change as a result of projected climate change during the 21st century. We selected terrestrial and freshwater systems in northernmost Europe, where climate is anticipated to change more than the global average, and identified likely changes in ecosystem services and their societal consequences. We did this by assembling experts from ecology, social science, and cultural geography in workshops, and we also performed a literature review. Results show that most ecosystem services are affected by multiple factors, often acting in opposite directions. Out of 14 services considered, 8 are expected to increase or remain relatively unchanged in supply, and 6 are expected to decrease. Although we do not predict collapse or disappearance of any of the investigated services, the effects of climate change in conjunction with potential economical and societal changes may exceed the adaptive capacity of societies. This may result in societal reorganization and changes in ways that ecosystems are used. Significant uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the forecast make specific conclusions about societal responses to safeguard human well-being questionable. Adapting to changes in ecosystem services will therefore require consideration of uncertainties and complexities in both social and ecological responses. The scenarios presented here provide a framework for future studies exploring such issues.
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| 39. |
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| 40. |
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| 41. |
- Sala, O E, et al.
(author)
-
Biodiversity - Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100
- 2000
-
In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 1095-9203 .- 0036-8075. ; 287:5459, s. 1770-1774
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and Land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably wilt have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
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| 42. |
- Wessberg, Johan, 1962, et al.
(author)
-
Real-time prediction of hand trajectory by ensembles of cortical neurons in primates.
- 2000
-
In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 408:6810, s. 361-5
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Signals derived from the rat motor cortex can be used for controlling one-dimensional movements of a robot arm. It remains unknown, however, whether real-time processing of cortical signals can be employed to reproduce, in a robotic device, the kind of complex arm movements used by primates to reach objects in space. Here we recorded the simultaneous activity of large populations of neurons, distributed in the premotor, primary motor and posterior parietal cortical areas, as non-human primates performed two distinct motor tasks. Accurate real-time predictions of one- and three-dimensional arm movement trajectories were obtained by applying both linear and nonlinear algorithms to cortical neuronal ensemble activity recorded from each animal. In addition, cortically derived signals were successfully used for real-time control of robotic devices, both locally and through the Internet. These results suggest that long-term control of complex prosthetic robot arm movements can be achieved by simple real-time transformations of neuronal population signals derived from multiple cortical areas in primates.
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| 43. |
- Barrett, Scott, et al.
(author)
-
Social dimensions of fertility behavior and consumption patterns in the Anthropocene
- 2020
-
In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 117:12, s. 6300-6307
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We consider two aspects of the human enterprise that profoundly affect the global environment: population and consumption. We show that fertility and consumption behavior harbor a class of externalities that have not been much noted in the literature. Both are driven in part by attitudes and preferences that are not egoistic but socially embedded; that is, each household's decisions are influenced by the decisions made by others. In a famous paper, Garrett Hardin [G. Hardin, Science 162, 1243-1248 (1968)] drew attention to overpopulation and concluded that the solution lay in people abandoning the freedom to breed. That human attitudes and practices are socially embedded suggests that it is possible for people to reduce their fertility rates and consumption demands without experiencing a loss in wellbeing. We focus on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa and consumption in the rich world and argue that bottom-up social mechanisms rather than top-down government interventions are better placed to bring about those ecologically desirable changes.
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| 44. |
- Callaghan, Terry V., et al.
(author)
-
Biodiversity, distributions and adaptations of arctic species in the context of environmental change
- 2004
-
In: Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment. - : Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. - 0044-7447. ; 33:7, s. 404-417
-
Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The individual of a species is the basic unit which responds to climate and UV-B changes, and it responds over a wide range of time scales. The diversity of animal, plant and microbial species appears to be low in the Arctic, and decreases from the boreal forests to the polar deserts of the extreme North but primitive species are particularly abundant. This latitudinal decline is associated with an increase in super-dominant species that occupy a wide range of habitats. Climate warming is expected to reduce the abundance and restrict the ranges of such species and to affect species at their northern range boundaries more than in the South: some Arctic animal and plant specialists could face extinction. Species most likely to expand into tundra are boreal species that currently exist as outlier populations in the Arctic. Many plant species have characteristics that allow them to survive short snow-free growing seasons, low solar angles, permafrost and low soil temperatures, low nutrient availability and physical disturbance. Many of these characteristics are likely to limit species responses to climate warming, but mainly because of poor competitive ability compared with potential immigrant species. Terrestrial Arctic animals possess many adaptations that enable them to persist under a wide range of temperatures in the Arctic. Many escape unfavorable weather and resource shortage by winter dormancy or by migration. The biotic environment of Arctic animal species is relatively simple with few enemies, competitors, diseases, parasites and available food resources. Terrestrial Arctic animals are likely to be most vulnerable to warmer and drier summers, climatic changes that interfere with migration routes and staging areas, altered snow conditions and freeze-thaw cycles in winter, climate-induced disruption of the seasonal timing of reproduction and development, and influx of new competitors, predators, parasites and diseases. Arctic microorganisms are also well adapted to the Arctics climate: some can metabolize at temperatures down to -39degreesC. Cyanobacteria and algae have a wide range of adaptive strategies that allow them to avoid, or at least minimize UV injury. Microorganisms can tolerate most environmental conditions and they have short generation times which can facilitate rapid adaptation to new environments. In contrast, Arctic plant and animal species are very likely to change their distributions rather than evolve significantly in response to warming.
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| 45. |
- Callaghan, Terry V., et al.
(author)
-
Climate Change and UV-B Impacts on Arctic Tundra and Polar Desert Ecosystems: Key Findings and Extended Summaries
- 2004
-
In: Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment. - 0044-7447. ; 33:7, s. 386-392
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Arctic has become an important region in which to assess the impacts of current climate variability and amplification of projected global warming. This is because i) the Arctic has experienced considerable warming in recent decades (an average of about 3°C and between 4° and 5°C over much of the landmass); i) climate projections suggest a continuation of the warming trend with an increase in mean annual temperatures of 4–5°C by 2080; ii) recent warming is already impacting the environment and economy of the Arctic and these impacts are expected to increase and affect also life style, culture and ecosystems; and iv) changes occurring in the Arctic are likely to affect other regions of the Earth, for example changes in snow, vegetation and sea ice are likely to affect the energy balance and ocean circulation at regional and even global scales (Chapter 1 in ref. 1). Responding to the urgent need to understand and project impacts of changes in climate and UV-B radiation on many facets of the Arctic, the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) (1) undertook a four-year study. Part of this study (1–10) assessed the impacts of changes in climate and UV-B radiation on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, both those changes already occurring and those likely to occur in the future. Here, we present the key findings of the assessment of climate change impacts on tundra and polar desert ecosystems, and xtended summaries of its components.
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| 46. |
- Callaghan, Terry V., et al.
(author)
-
Effects of changes in climate on landscape and regional processes, and feedbacks to the climate system
- 2004
-
In: Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment. - 0044-7447. ; 33:7, s. 459-468
-
Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Biological and physical processes in the Arctic system operate at various temporal and spatial scales to impact large-scale feedbacks and interactions with the earth system. There are four main potential feedback mechanisms between the impacts of climate change on the Arctic and the global climate system: albedo, greenhouse gas emissions or uptake by ecosystems, greenhouse gas emissions from methane hydrates, and increased freshwater fluxes that could affect the thermohaline circulation. All these feedbacks are controlled to some extent by changes in ecosystem distribution and character and particularly by large-scale movement of vegetation zones. Indications from a few, full annual measurements of CO2 fluxes are that currently the source areas exceed sink areas in geographical distribution. The little available information on CH4 sources indicates that emissions at the landscape level are of great importance for the total greenhouse balance of the circumpolar North. Energy and water balances of Arctic landscapes are also important feedback mechanisms in a changing climate. Increasing density and spatial expansion of vegetation will cause a lowering of the albedo and more energy to be absorbed on the ground. This effect is likely to exceed the negative feedback of increased C sequestration in greater primary productivity resulting from the displacements of areas of polar desert by tundra, and areas of tundra by forest. The degradation of permafrost has complex consequences for trace gas dynamics. In areas of discontinuous permafrost, warming, will lead to a complete loss of the permafrost. Depending on local hydrological conditions this may in turn lead to a wetting or drying of the environment with subsequent implications for greenhouse gas fluxes. Overall, the complex interactions between processes contributing to feedbacks, variability over time and space in these processes, and insufficient data have generated considerable uncertainties in estimating the net effects of climate change on terrestrial feedbacks to the climate system. This uncertainty applies to magnitude, and even direction of some of the feedbacks.
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| 47. |
- Callaghan, T. V., et al.
(author)
-
Effects on the function of arctic ecosystems in the short- and long-term perspectives
- 2004
-
In: Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment. - : Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. - 0044-7447. ; 33, s. 448-458
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Abstract in UndeterminedHistorically, the function of Arctic ecosystems in terms of cycles of nutrients and carbon has led to low levels of primary production and exchanges of energy, water and greenhouse gases have led to low local and regional cooling. Sequestration of carbon from atmospheric CO2, in extensive, cold organic soils and the high albedo from low, snow-covered vegetation have had impacts on regional climate. However, many aspects of the functioning of Arctic ecosystems are sensitive to changes in climate and its impacts on biodiversity. The current Arctic climate results in slow rates of organic matter decomposition. Arctic ecosystems therefore tend to accumulate organic matter and elements despite low inputs. As a result, soil-available elements like nitrogen and phosphorus are key limitations to increases in carbon fixation and further biomass and organic matter accumulation. Climate warming is expected to increase carbon and element turnover, particularly in soils, which may lead to initial losses of elements but eventual, slow recovery. Individual species and species diversity have clear impacts on element inputs and retention in Arctic ecosystems. Effects of increased CO2 and UV-B on whole ecosystems, on the other hand, are likely to be small although effects on plant tissue chemisty, decomposition and nitrogen fixation may become important in the long-term. Cycling of carbon in trace gas form is mainly as CO2 and CH4. Most carbon loss is in the form of CO2, produced by both plants and soil biota. Carbon emissions as methane from wet and moist tundra ecosystems are about 5% of emissions as CO2 and are responsive to warming in the absence of any other changes. Winter processes and vegetation type also affect CH4 emissions as well as exchanges of energy between biosphere and atmosphere. Arctic ecosystems exhibit the largest seasonal changes in energy exchange of any terrestrial ecosystem because of the large changes in albedo from late winter, when snow reflects most incoming radiation, to summer when the ecosystem absorbs most incoming radiation. Vegetation profoundly influences the water and energy exchange of Arctic ecosystems. Albedo during the period of snow cover declines from tundra to forest tundra to deciduous forest to evergreen forest. Shrubs and trees increase snow depth which in turn increases winter soil temperatures. Future changes in vegetation driven by climate change are therefore, very likely to profoundly alter regional climate.
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| 48. |
- Callaghan, Terry V., et al.
(author)
-
Effects on the structure of arctic ecosystems in the short- and long-term perspectives
- 2004
-
In: Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment. - : Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. - 0044-7447. ; 33:7, s. 436-447
-
Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Species individualistic responses to warming and increased UV-B radiation are moderated by the responses of neighbors within communities, and trophic interactions within ecosystems. All of these responses lead to changes in ecosystem structure. Experimental manipulation of environmental factors expected to change at high latitudes showed that summer warming of tundra vegetation has generally led to smaller changes than fertilizer addition. Some of the factors manipulated have strong effects on the structure of Arctic ecosystems but the effects vary regionally, with the greatest response of plant and invertebrate communities being observed at the coldest locations. Arctic invertebrate communities are very likely to respond rapidly to warming whereas microbial biomass and nutrient stocks are more stable. Experimentally enhanced UV-B radiation altered the community composition of gram-negative bacteria and fungi, but not that of plants. Increased plant productivity due to warmer summers may dominate food-web dynamics. Trophic interactions of tundra and sub-Arctic forest plant-based food webs are centered on a few dominant animal species which often have cyclic population fluctuations that lead to extremely high peak abundances in some years. Population cycles of small rodents and insect defoliators such as the autumn moth affect the structure and diversity of tundra and forest-tundra vegetation and the viability of a number of specialist predators and parasites. Ice crusting in warmer winters is likely to reduce the accessibility of plant food to lemmings, while deep snow may protect them from snow-surface predators. In Fennoscandia, there is evidence already for a pronounced shift in small rodent community structure and dynamics that have resulted in a decline of predators that specialize in feeding on small rodents. Climate is also likely to alter the role of insect pests in the birch forest system: warmer winters may increase survival of eggs and expand the range of the insects. Insects that harass reindeer in the summer are also likely to become more widespread, abundant and active during warmer summers while refuges for reindeer/caribou on glaciers and late snow patches will probably disappear.
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| 49. |
- Callaghan, Terry V., et al.
(author)
-
Past changes in arctic terrestrial ecosystems, climate and UV radiation
- 2004
-
In: Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment. - 0044-7447. ; 33:7, s. 398-403
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- At the last glacial maximum, vast ice sheets covered many continental areas. The beds of some shallow seas were exposed thereby connecting previously separated landmasses. Although some areas were ice-free and supported a flora and fauna, mean annual temperatures were 10-13degreesC colder than during the Holocene. Within a few millennia of the glacial maximum, deglaciation started, characterized by a series of climatic fluctuations between about 18 000 and 11 400 years ago. Following the general thermal maximum in the Holocene, there has been a modest overall cooling trend, superimposed upon which have been a series of millennial and centennial fluctuations in climate such as the "Little Ice Age spanning approximately the late 13th to early 19th centuries. Throughout the climatic fluctuations of the last 150 000 years, Arctic ecosystems and biota have been close to their minimum extent within the most recent 10 000 years. They suffered loss of diversity as a result of extinctions during the most recent large-magnitude rapid global warming at the end of the last glacial stage. Consequently, Arctic ecosystems and biota such as large vertebrates are already under pressure and are particularly vulnerable to current and projected future global warming. Evidence from the past indicates that the treeline will very as it probably advance, perhaps rapidly, into tundra areas, a it did during the early Holocene, reducing the extent of tundra and increasing the risk of species extinction. Species will very probably extend their ranges northwards, displacing Arctic species as in the past. However, unlike the early Holocene, when lower relative sea level allowed a belt of tundra to persist around at least some parts of the Arctic basin when treelines advanced to the present coast, sea level is very likely to rise in future, further restricting the area of tundra and other treeless Arctic ecosystems. The negative response of current Arctic ecosystems to global climatic conditions that are apparently without precedent during the Pleistocene is likely to be considerable, particularly as their exposure to co-occurring environmental changes (such as enhanced levels of UV-B, deposition of nitrogen compounds from the atmosphere, heavy metal and acidic pollution, radioactive contamination, increased habitat fragmentation) is also without precedent.
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- Callaghan, Terry V., et al.
(author)
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Rationale, concepts and approach to the assessment
- 2004
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In: Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment. - 0044-7447. ; 33:7, s. 393-397
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A general recognition that the Arctic will amplify global climate warming, that UV-B radiation may continue to increase there because of possible delays in the repair of stratospheric ozone, and that the Arctic environment and its peoples are likely to be particularly susceptible to such environmental changes stimulated an international assessment of climate change impacts. The Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (ACIA) is a four-year study, culminating in publication of a major scientific report (1) as well as other products. In this paper and those following in this Ambio Special Issue, we present the findings of the section of the report that focuses on terrestrial ecosystems of the Arctic, from the treeline ecotone to the polar deserts. The Arctic is generally recognized as a treeless wilderness with cold winters and cool summers. However, definitions of the southern boundary vary according to environmental, geographical or political biases. This paper and the assessment in the following papers of this Ambio Special Issue focus on biota (plants, animals and microorganisms) and processes in the region beyond the northern limit of the closed forest (the taiga), but we also include processes south of this boundary that affect ecosystems in the Arctic. Examples are overwintering periods of migratory animals spent in the south and the regulation of the latitudinal treeline. The geographical area we have defined as the current Arctic is the area we use for developing scenarios of future impacts: Our geographical area of interest will not decrease under a scenario of the replacement of current Arctic tundra by boreal forests.
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