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Sökning: WFRF:(Dietrich Tim)

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1.
  • Abbafati, Cristiana, et al. (författare)
  • 2020
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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2.
  • Naghavi, Mohsen, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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3.
  • Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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4.
  • Vos, Theo, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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5.
  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare)
  • Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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6.
  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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7.
  • Almualla, Mouza, et al. (författare)
  • Optimizing serendipitous detections of kilonovae : cadence and filter selection
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 504:2, s. 2822-2831
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The rise of multimessenger astronomy has brought with it the need to exploit all available data streams and learn more about the astrophysical objects that fall within its breadth. One possible avenue is the search for serendipitous optical/near-infrared counterparts of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and gravitational-wave (GW) signals, known as kilonovae. With surveys such as the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), which observes the sky with a cadence of similar to 3 d, the existing counterpart locations are likely to be observed; however, due to the significant amount of sky to explore, it is difficult to search for these fast-evolving candidates. Thus, it is beneficial to optimize the survey cadence for realtime kilonova identification and enable further photometric and spectroscopic observations. We explore how the cadence of wide field-of-view surveys like ZTF can be improved to facilitate such identifications. We show that with improved observational choices, e.g. the adoption of three epochs per night on a similar to nightly basis, and the prioritization of redder photometric bands, detection efficiencies improve by about a factor of two relative to the nominal cadence. We also provide realistic hypothetical constraints on the kilonova rate as a form of comparison between strategies, assuming that no kilonovae are detected throughout the long-term execution of the respective observing plan. These results demonstrate how an optimal use of ZTF increases the likelihood of kilonova discovery independent of GWs or GRBs, thereby allowing for a sensitive search with less interruption of its nominal cadence through Target of Opportunity programs.
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8.
  • Andreoni, Igor, et al. (författare)
  • Fast-transient Searches in Real Time with ZTFReST : Identification of Three Optically Discovered Gamma-Ray Burst Afterglows and New Constraints on the Kilonova Rate
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 918:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The most common way to discover extragalactic fast transients, which fade within a few nights in the optical, is via follow-up of gamma-ray burst and gravitational-wave triggers. However, wide-field surveys have the potential to identify rapidly fading transients independently of such external triggers. The volumetric survey speed of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) makes it sensitive to objects as faint and fast fading as kilonovae, the optical counterparts to binary neutron star mergers, out to almost 200 Mpc. We introduce an open-source software infrastructure, the ZTF REaltime Search and Triggering, ZTFReST, designed to identify kilonovae and fast transients in ZTF data. Using the ZTF alert stream combined with forced point-spread-function photometry, we have implemented automated candidate ranking based on their photometric evolution and fitting to kilonova models. Automated triggering, with a human in the loop for monitoring, of follow-up systems has also been implemented. In 13 months of science validation, we found several extragalactic fast transients independently of any external trigger, including two supernovae with post-shock cooling emission, two known afterglows with an associated gamma-ray burst (ZTF20abbiixp, ZTF20abwysqy), two known afterglows without any known gamma-ray counterpart (ZTF20aajnksq, ZTF21aaeyldq), and three new fast-declining sources (ZTF20abtxwfx, ZTF20acozryr, ZTF21aagwbjr) that are likely associated with GRB200817A, GRB201103B, and GRB210204A. However, we have not found any objects that appear to be kilonovae. We constrain the rate of GW170817-like kilonovae to R < 900 Gpc(-3) yr(-1) (95% confidence). A framework such as ZTFReST could become a prime tool for kilonova and fast-transient discovery with the Vera Rubin Observatory.
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9.
  • Andreoni, Igor, et al. (författare)
  • Optimizing Cadences with Realistic Light-curve Filtering for Serendipitous Kilonova Discovery with Vera Rubin Observatory
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 258:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Current and future optical and near-infrared wide-field surveys have the potential to find kilonovae, the optical and infrared counterparts to neutron star mergers, independently of gravitational-wave or high-energy gamma-ray burst triggers. The ability to discover fast and faint transients such as kilonovae largely depends on the area observed, the depth of those observations, the number of revisits per field in a given time frame, and the filters adopted by the survey; it also depends on the ability to perform rapid follow-up observations to confirm the nature of the transients. In this work, we assess kilonova detectability in existing simulations of the Legacy Survey of Space and Time strategy for the Vera C. Rubin Wide Fast Deep survey, with focus on comparing rolling to baseline cadences. Although currently available cadences can enable the detection of >300 kilonovae out to ∼1400 Mpc over the 10 year survey, we can expect only 3–32 kilonovae similar to GW170817 to be recognizable as fast-evolving transients. We also explore the detectability of kilonovae over the plausible parameter space, focusing on viewing angle and ejecta masses. We find that observations in redder izy bands are crucial for identification of nearby (within 300 Mpc) kilonovae that could be spectroscopically classified more easily than more distant sources. Rubin's potential for serendipitous kilonova discovery could be increased by gain of efficiency with the employment of individual 30 s exposures (as opposed to 2 × 15 s snap pairs), with the addition of red-band observations coupled with same-night observations in g or r bands, and possibly with further development of a new rolling-cadence strategy.
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10.
  • Ascenzi, Stefano, et al. (författare)
  • A luminosity distribution for kilonovae based on short gamma-ray burst afterglows
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 486:1, s. 672-690
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The combined detection of a gravitational-wave signal, kilonova, and short gamma-ray burst (sGRB) from GW170817 marked a scientific breakthrough in the field of multimessenger astronomy. But even before GW170817, there have been a number of sGRBs with possible associated kilonova detections. In this work, we re-examine these ` historical' sGRB afterglows with a combination of state-of-the-art afterglow and kilonova models. This allows us to include optical/near-infrared synchrotron emission produced by the sGRB as well as ultraviolet/optical/near-infrared emission powered by the radioactive decay of r-process elements (i.e. the kilonova). Fitting the light curves, we derive the velocity and the mass distribution as well as the composition of the ejected material. The posteriors on kilonova parameters obtained from the fit were turned into distributions for the peak magnitude of the kilonova emission in different bands and the time at which this peak occurs. From the sGRB with an associated kilonova, we found that the peak magnitude in H bands falls in the range [-16.2, -13.1] (95 per cent of confidence) and occurs within 0.8-3.6 d after the sGRB prompt emission. In g band instead we obtain a peak magnitude in range [-16.8, -12.3] occurring within the first 18 h after the sGRB prompt. From the luminosity distributions of GW170817/AT2017gfo, kilonova candidates GRB130603B, GRB050709, and GRB060614 (with the possible inclusion of GRB150101B, GRB050724A, GRB061201, GRB080905A, GRB150424A, and GRB160821B) and the upper limits from all the other sGRBs not associated with any kilonova detection we obtain for the first time a kilonova luminosity distribution in different bands.
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11.
  • Bergamaschi, Peter, et al. (författare)
  • Inverse modelling of European CH4 emissions during 2006–2012 using different inverse models and reassessed atmospheric observations
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7324. ; 18:2, s. 901-920
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present inverse modelling (top down) estimates of European methane (CH4) emissions for 2006–2012 based on a new quality-controlled and harmonised in situ data set from 18 European atmospheric monitoring stations. We applied an ensemble of seven inverse models and performed four inversion experiments, investigating the impact of different sets of stations and the use of a priori information on emissions. The inverse models infer total CH4 emissions of 26.8 (20.2–29.7) Tg CH4 yr−1 (mean, 10th and 90th percentiles from all inversions) for the EU-28 for 2006–2012 from the four inversion experiments. For comparison, total anthropogenic CH4 emissions reported to UNFCCC (bottom up, based on statistical data and emissions factors) amount to only 21.3 Tg CH4 yr−1 (2006) to 18.8 Tg CH4 yr−1 (2012). A potential explanation for the higher range of top-down estimates compared to bottom-up inventories could be the contribution from natural sources, such as peatlands, wetlands, and wet soils. Based on seven different wetland inventories from the Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP), total wetland emissions of 4.3 (2.3–8.2) Tg CH4 yr−1 from the EU-28 are estimated. The hypothesis of significant natural emissions is supported by the finding that several inverse models yield significant seasonal cycles of derived CH4 emissions with maxima in summer, while anthropogenic CH4 emissions are assumed to have much lower seasonal variability. Taking into account the wetland emissions from the WETCHIMP ensemble, the top-down estimates are broadly consistent with the sum of anthropogenic and natural bottom-up inventories. However, the contribution of natural sources and their regional distribution remain rather uncertain. Furthermore, we investigate potential biases in the inverse models by comparison with regular aircraft profiles at four European sites and with vertical profiles obtained during the Infrastructure for Measurement of the European Carbon Cycle (IMECC) aircraft campaign. We present a novel approach to estimate the biases in the derived emissions, based on the comparison of simulated and measured enhancements of CH4 compared to the background, integrated over the entire boundary layer and over the lower troposphere. The estimated average regional biases range between −40 and 20 % at the aircraft profile sites in France, Hungary and Poland.
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12.
  • Boeing, Heiner, et al. (författare)
  • Intake of fruits and vegetables and risk of cancer of the upper aero-digestive tract: the prospective EPIC-study
  • 2006
  • Ingår i: Cancer Causes and Control. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-7225 .- 0957-5243. ; 17:7, s. 957-969
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Epidemiologic studies suggest that a high intake of fruits and vegetables is associated with decreased risk of cancers of the upper aero-digestive tract. We studied data from 345,904 subjects of the prospective European Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) recruited in seven European countries, who had completed a dietary questionnaire in 1992-1998. During 2,182,560 person years of observation 352 histologically verified incident squamous cell cancer (SCC) cases (255 males; 97 females) of the oral cavity, pharynx, larynx, and esophagus were identified. Linear and restricted cubic spline Cox regressions were fitted on variables of intake of fruits and vegetables and adjusted for potential confounders. We observed a significant inverse association with combined total fruits and vegetables intake (estimated relative risk (RR) = 0.91; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.83-1.00 per 80 g/d of consumption), and nearly significant inverse associations in separate analyses with total fruits and total vegetables intake (RR: 0.97 (95% CI: 0.92-1.02) and RR = 0.89 (95% CI: 0.78-1.02) per 40 g/d of consumption). Overall, vegetable subgroups were not related to risk with the exception of intake of root vegetables in men. Restricted cubic spline regression did not improve the linear model fits except for total fruits and vegetables and total fruits with a significant decrease in risk at low intake levels (< 120 g/d) for fruits. Dietary recommendations should consider the potential benefit of increasing fruits and vegetables consumption for reducing the risk of cancers of the upper aero-digestive tract, particularly at low intake.
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13.
  • Bulla, Mattia, et al. (författare)
  • Multi-Messenger Constraints on the Hubble Constant through Combination of Gravitational Waves, Gamma-Ray Bursts and Kilonovae from Neutron Star Mergers
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Universe. - : MDPI AG. - 2218-1997. ; 8:5
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The simultaneous detection of gravitational waves and light from the binary neutron star merger GW170817 led to independent measurements of distance and redshift, providing a direct estimate of the Hubble constant H0 that does not rely on a cosmic distance ladder, nor assumes a specific cosmological model. By using gravitational waves as “standard sirens”, this approach holds promise to arbitrate the existing tension between the H0 value inferred from the cosmic microwave background and those obtained from local measurements. However, the known degeneracy in the gravitational-wave analysis between distance and inclination of the source led to a H0 value from GW170817 that was not precise enough to resolve the existing tension. In this review, we summarize recent works exploiting the viewing-angle dependence of the electromagnetic signal, namely the associated short gamma-ray burst and kilonova, to constrain the system inclination and improve on H0. We outline the key ingredients of the different methods, summarize the results obtained in the aftermath of GW170817 and discuss the possible systematics introduced by each of these methods.
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14.
  • Camelio, Giovanni, et al. (författare)
  • Axisymmetric models for neutron star merger remnants with realistic thermal and rotational profiles
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 103:6
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Merging neutron stars are expected to produce hot, metastable remnants in rapid differential rotation, which subsequently cool and evolve into rigidly rotating neutron stars or collapse to black holes. Studying this metastable phase and its further evolution is essential for the prediction and interpretation of the electromagnetic, neutrino, and gravitational signals from such a merger. In this work, we model binary neutron star merger remnants and propose new rotation and thermal laws that describe postmerger remnants. Our framework is capable to reproduce quasiequilibrium configurations for generic equations of state, rotation and temperature profiles, including nonbarotropic ones. We demonstrate that our results are in agreement with numerical relativity simulations concerning bulk remnant properties like the mass, angular momentum, and the formation of a massive accretion disk. Because of the low computational cost for our axisymmetric code compared to full 3 + 1-dimensional simulations, we can perform an extensive exploration of the binary neutron star remnant parameter space studying several hundred thousand configurations for different equations of state.
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15.
  • Camelio, Giovanni, et al. (författare)
  • Disc formation in the collapse of supramassive neutron stars
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 480:4, s. 5272-5285
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Short gamma-ray bursts (sGRBs) show a large diversity in their properties. This suggests that the observed phenomenon can be caused by different 'central engines' or that the engine produces a variety of outcomes depending on its parameters, or possibly both. The most popular engine scenario, the merger of two neutron stars, has received support from the recent Fermi and INTEGRAL detection of a burst of gamma rays (GRB170817A) following the neutron star merger GW 170817, but at the moment, it is not clear how peculiar this event potentially was. Several sGRBs engine models involve the collapse of a supramassive neutron star that produces a black hole plus an accretion disc. We study this scenario for a variety of equations of states both via angular momentum considerations based on equilibrium models and via fully dynamical Numerical Relativity simulations. We obtain a broader range of disc forming configurations than earlier studies but we agree with the latter that none of these configurations is likely to produce a phenomenon that would be classified as an sGRB.
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16.
  • Camelio, Giovanni, et al. (författare)
  • Rotating neutron stars with nonbarotropic thermal profile
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 100:12
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Neutron stars provide an excellent laboratory for physics under the most extreme conditions. Up to now, models of axisymmetric, stationary, differentially rotating neutron stars were constructed under the strong assumption of barotropicity, where a one-to-one relation between all thermodynamic quantities exists. This implies that the specific angular momentum of a matter element depends only on its angular velocity. The physical conditions in the early stages of neutron stars, however, are determined by their violent birth processes, typically a supernova or in some cases the merger of two neutron stars, and detailed numerical models show that the resulting stars are by no means barotropic. Here, we construct models for stationary, differentially rotating, nonbarotropic neutron stars, where the equation of state and the specific angular momentum depend on more than one independent variable. We show that the potential formulation of the relativistic Euler equation can be extended to the nonbarotropic case, which, to the best of our knowledge, is a new result even for the Newtonian case. We implement the new method into the XNS code and construct equilibrium configurations for nonbarotropic equations of state. We scrutinize the resulting configurations by evolving them dynamically with the numerical relativity code BAM, thereby demonstrating that the new method indeed produces stationary, differentially rotating, nonbarotropic neutron star configurations.
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17.
  • Chaurasia, Swami Vivekanandji, et al. (författare)
  • Black hole-neutron star simulations with the BAM code : First tests and simulations
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 104:8
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The first detections of black hole–neutron star mergers (GW200105 and GW200115) by the LIGO-Virgo-Kagra Collaboration mark a significant scientific breakthrough. The physical interpretation of pre- and postmerger signals requires careful cross-examination between observational and theoretical modelling results. Here we present the first set of black hole–neutron star simulations that were obtained with the numerical-relativity code BAM. Our initial data are constructed using the public LORENE spectral library, which employs an excision of the black hole interior. BAM, in contrast, uses the moving-puncture gauge for the evolution. Therefore, we need to “stuff” the black hole interior with smooth initial data to evolve the binary system in time. This procedure introduces constraint violations such that the constraint damping properties of the evolution system are essential to increase the accuracy of the simulation and in particular to reduce spurious center-of-mass drifts. Within BAM we evolve the Z4c equations and we compare our gravitational-wave results with those of the SXS collaboration and results obtained with the sacra code. While we find generally good agreement with the reference solutions and phase differences ≲0.5  rad at the moment of merger, the absence of a clean convergence order in our simulations does not allow for a proper error quantification. We finally present a set of different initial conditions to explore how the merger of black hole neutron star systems depends on the involved masses, spins, and equations of state.
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18.
  • Chaurasia, Swami Vivekanandji, et al. (författare)
  • Gravitational waves and mass ejecta from binary neutron star mergers : Effect of the spin orientation
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 1550-7998 .- 1550-2368. ; 102:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We continue our study of the binary neutron star parameter space by investigating the effect of the spin orientation on the dynamics, gravitational wave emission, and mass ejection during the binary neutron star coalescence. We simulate seven different configurations using multiple resolutions to allow a reasonable error assessment. Due to the particular choice of the setups, five configurations show precession effects, from which two show a precession (wobbling) of the orbital plane, while three show a bobbing motion; i.e., the orbital angular momentum does not precess, while the orbital plane moves along the orbital angular momentum axis. Considering the ejection of mass, we find that precessing systems can have an anisotropic mass ejection, which could lead to a final remnant kick of similar to 40 km/s for the studied systems. Furthermore, for the chosen configurations, antialigned spins lead to larger mass ejecta than aligned spins, so that brighter electromagnetic counterparts could be expected for these configurations. Finally, we compare our simulations with the precessing, tidal waveform approximant IMRPhenomPv2_NRTidalv2 and find good agreement between the approximant and our numerical relativity waveforms with phase differences below 1.2 rad accumulated over the last similar to 16 gravitational wave cycles.
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19.
  • Coughlin, Michael W., et al. (författare)
  • Implications of the search for optical counterparts during the first six months of the Advanced LIGO's and Advanced Virgo's third observing run : possible limits on the ejecta mass and binary properties
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : OXFORD UNIV PRESS. - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 492:1, s. 863-876
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • GW170817 showed that neutron star mergers not only emit gravitational waves but also can release electromagnetic signatures in multiple wavelengths. Within the first half of the third observing run of the Advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors, there have been a number of gravitational wave candidates of compact binary systems for which at least one component is potentially a neutron star. In this article, we look at the candidates S190425z, S190426c, S190510g, S190901ap, and S190910h, predicted to have potentially a non-zero remnant mass, in more detail. All these triggers have been followed up with extensive campaigns by the astronomical community doing electromagnetic searches for their optical counterparts; however, according to the released classification, there is a high probability that some of these events might not be of extraterrestrial origin. Assuming that the triggers are caused by a compact binary coalescence and that the individual source locations have been covered during the EM follow-up campaigns, we employ three different kilonova models and apply them to derive possible constraints on the matter ejection consistent with the publicly available gravitational-wave trigger information and the lack of a kilonova detection. These upper bounds on the ejecta mass can be related to limits on the maximum mass of the binary neutron star candidate S190425z and to constraints on the mass-ratio, spin, and NS compactness for the potential black hole-neutron star candidate S190426c. Our results show that deeper electromagnetic observations for future gravitational wave events near the horizon limit of the advanced detectors are essential.
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20.
  • Coughlin, Michael W., et al. (författare)
  • Implications of the search for optical counterparts during the second part of the Advanced LIGO's and Advanced Virgo's third observing run : lessons learned for future follow-up observations
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press. - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 497:1, s. 1181-1196
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Joint multimessenger observations with gravitational waves and electromagnetic (EM) data offer new insights into the astrophysical studies of compact objects. The third Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo observing run began on 2019 April 1; during the 11 months of observation, there have been 14 compact binary systems candidates for which at least one component is potentially a neutron star. Although intensive follow-up campaigns involving tens of ground and space-based observatories searched for counterparts, no EM counterpart has been detected. Following on a previous study of the first six months of the campaign, we present in this paper the next five months of the campaign from 2019 October to 2020 March. We highlight two neutron star-black hole candidates (S191205ah and S200105ae), two binary neutron star candidates (S191213g and S200213t), and a binary merger with a possible neutron star and a `MassGap' component, S200115j. Assuming that the gravitational-wave (GW) candidates are of astrophysical origin and their location was covered by optical telescopes, we derive possible constraints on the matter ejected during the events based on the non-detection of counterparts. We find that the follow-up observations during the second half of the third observing run did not meet the necessary sensitivity to constrain the source properties of the potential GW candidate. Consequently, we suggest that different strategies have to be used to allow a better usage of the available telescope time. We examine different choices for follow-up surveys to optimize sky localization coverage versus observational depth to understand the likelihood of counterpart detection.
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21.
  • Coughlin, Michael W., et al. (författare)
  • Measuring the Hubble constant with a sample of kilonovae
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2041-1723. ; 11:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Kilonovae produced by the coalescence of compact binaries with at least one neutron star are promising standard sirens for an independent measurement of the Hubble constant (H-0). Through their detection via follow-up of gravitational-wave (GW), short gamma-ray bursts (sGRBs) or optical surveys, a large sample of kilonovae (even without GW data) can be used for H-0 contraints. Here, we show measurement of H-0 using light curves associated with four sGRBs, assuming these are attributable to kilonovae, combined with GW170817. Including a systematic uncertainty on the models that is as large as the statistical ones, we find H0=73.8-5.8+6.3kms-1Mpc-1 and H0=71.2-3.1+3.2kms-1Mpc-1 for two different kilonova models that are consistent with the local and inverse-distance ladder measurements. For a given model, this measurement is about a factor of 2-3 more precise than the standard-siren measurement for GW170817 using only GWs. Kilonovae observations can be used to out constraints on the Hubble constant (H0). Here, the authors show H0 measurements by combining light curves of four short gamma-ray burts with GW170817 are about a factor of 2-3 more precise than the standard-siren measurements using only gravitational-waves.
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22.
  • Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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23.
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24.
  • Gonzalez, Alejandra, et al. (författare)
  • Second release of the CoRe database of binary neutron star merger waveforms
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Classical and quantum gravity. - : IOP Publishing. - 0264-9381 .- 1361-6382. ; 40:8
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present the second data release of gravitational waveforms from binary neutron star (BNS) merger simulations performed by the Computational Relativity (CoRE) collaboration. The current database consists of 254 different BNS configurations and a total of 590 individual numerical-relativity simulations using various grid resolutions. The released waveform data contain the strain and the Weyl curvature multipoles up to l = m = 4. They span a significant portion of the mass, mass-ratio, spin and eccentricity parameter space and include targeted configurations to the events GW170817 and GW190425. CoRE simulations are performed with 18 different equations of state, seven of which are finite temperature models, and three of which account for nonhadronic degrees of freedom. About half of the released data are computed with high-order hydrodynamics schemes for tens of orbits to merger; the other half is computed with advanced microphysics. We showcase a standard waveform error analysis and discuss the accuracy of the database in terms of faithfulness. We present ready-to-use fitting formulas for equation of state-insensitive relations at merger (e.g. merger frequency), luminosity peak, and post-merger spectrum.
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25.
  • Hofstra, Harmen, et al. (författare)
  • Challenges and Experiences
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Transparency for Sustainability in the Food Chain: Challenges and Research Needs-EFFoST Critical Reviews #2. - : Elsevier Inc.. - 9780124171954 ; , s. 21-65
  • Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • In the identification of transparency challenges evolving from a discrepancy between needs, state-of-the-art, and experiences that will be discussed, the Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) has utilized a broad range of approaches, including literature analysis, best practice analysis, chain analysis, work group discussions, expert discussions, surveys, web consultations, and simulation studies to reach results that serve the objectives.In this chapter, the focus is on the layer approach, the integrated view follows thereafter. The layer approach distinguishes between. a.upper levels linked to the recipients of transparency andb.lower levels linked to the actors in the food value chain and their production and distribution processes.The different layers identify different communication needs. The lowest level provides the ". infrastructure" for data communication. It is closely related to information technology and the identification of the path that a product takes from production to consumption. This is linked to the tracking and tracing functionality which makes it feasible to communicate additional information as "backpack" on the tracking and tracing information base.The next layer serves the collection of information about the various domains (food safety, food quality, chain integrity) of interest. This layer represents the classical information collection and communication approach. The third layer involves the transformation of information into signals or further to simple-to-understand messages like "this food is safe" which serve the transparency needs of the various stakeholders (consumers, enterprises, and policy) depending on the situation they are in (scenario).
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26.
  • Huth, Sabrina, et al. (författare)
  • Constraining neutron-star matter with microscopic and macroscopic collisions
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 606:7913, s. 276-280
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Interpreting high-energy, astrophysical phenomena, such as supernova explosions or neutron-star collisions, requires a robust understanding of matter at supranuclear densities. However, our knowledge about dense matter explored in the cores of neutron stars remains limited. Fortunately, dense matter is not probed only in astrophysical observations, but also in terrestrial heavy-ion collision experiments. Here we use Bayesian inference to combine data from astrophysical multi-messenger observations of neutron stars(1-9) and from heavy-ion collisions of gold nuclei at relativistic energies(10,11) with microscopic nuclear theory calculations(12-17) to improve our understanding of dense matter. We find that the inclusion of heavy-ion collision data indicates an increase in the pressure in dense matter relative to previous analyses, shifting neutron-star radii towards larger values, consistent with recent observations by the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer mission(5-8,18). Our findings show that constraints from heavy-ion collision experiments show a remarkable consistency with multi-messenger observations and provide complementary information on nuclear matter at intermediate densities. This work combines nuclear theory, nuclear experiment and astrophysical observations, and shows how joint analyses can shed light on the properties of neutron-rich supranuclear matter over the density range probed in neutron stars.
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27.
  • Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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28.
  • Markin, Ivan, et al. (författare)
  • General-relativistic hydrodynamics simulation of a neutron star–sub-solar-mass black hole merger
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 108:6
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Over the last few years, there has been an increasing interest in sub-solar-mass black holes due to their potential to provide valuable information about cosmology or the black hole population. Motivated by this, we study observable phenomena connected to the merger of a sub-solar-mass black hole with a neutron star. For this purpose, we perform new numerical-relativity simulations of a binary system composed of a black hole with mass 0.5M⊙ and a neutron star with mass 1.4M⊙. We investigate the merger dynamics of this exotic system and provide information about the connected gravitational-wave and kilonova signals. Our study indicates that current gravitational-waveform models cannot adequately describe such systems and that phenomenological relations connecting the binary parameters with the ejecta and remnant properties do not apply to our system. Furthermore, we find a dependence of the kilonova signal on the azimuthal viewing angle due to the asymmetric mass ejection. This first-of-its-kind simulation opens the door for studying sub-solar-mass black hole-neutron star mergers and could serve as a testing ground for future model development.
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29.
  • Neuweiler, Anna, et al. (författare)
  • Long-term simulations of dynamical ejecta : Homologous expansion and kilonova properties
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 107:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Accurate numerical-relativity simulations are essential to study the rich phenomenology of binary neutron star systems. In this work, we focus on the material that is dynamically ejected during the merger process and on the kilonova transient it produces. Typically, radiative transfer simulations of kilonova light curves from ejecta make the assumption of homologous expansion, but this condition might not always be met at the end of usually very short numerical-relativity simulations. In this article, we adjust the infrastructure of the bam code to enable longer simulations of the dynamical ejecta with the aim of investigating when the condition of homologous expansion is satisfied. In fact, we observe that the deviations from a perfect homologous expansion are about ≲ 30% at roughly 100 ms after the merger. While the calculation of the kilonova light curves is affected by the resolution as well as our method of simplifying the ejecta simulation, these deviations from the homologous expansion also bias the results. We determine this influence by extracting the ejecta data for different reference times and use them as input to radiative transfer simulations. Our results show that the light curves for extraction times later than 80 ms after the merger deviate by ≲ 0.4  mag and are mostly consistent with numerical noise. Accordingly, deviations from the homologous expansion for the dynamical ejecta component are negligible from ∼ 80  ms for the purpose of kilonova modeling.
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30.
  • Pang, Peter T. H., et al. (författare)
  • An updated nuclear-physics and multi-messenger astrophysics framework for binary neutron star mergers
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - 2041-1723. ; 14:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The multi-messenger detection of the gravitational-wave signal GW170817, the corresponding kilonova AT2017gfo and the short gamma-ray burst GRB170817A, as well as the observed afterglow has delivered a scientific breakthrough. For an accurate interpretation of all these different messengers, one requires robust theoretical models that describe the emitted gravitational-wave, the electromagnetic emission, and dense matter reliably. In addition, one needs efficient and accurate computational tools to ensure a correct cross-correlation between the models and the observational data. For this purpose, we have developed the Nuclear-physics and Multi-Messenger Astrophysics framework NMMA. The code allows incorporation of nuclear-physics constraints at low densities as well as X-ray and radio observations of isolated neutron stars. In previous works, the NMMA code has allowed us to constrain the equation of state of supranuclear dense matter, to measure the Hubble constant, and to compare dense-matter physics probed in neutron-star mergers and in heavy-ion collisions, and to classify electromagnetic observations and perform model selection. Here, we show an extension of the NMMA code as a first attempt of analyzing the gravitational-wave signal, the kilonova, and the gamma-ray burst afterglow simultaneously. Incorporating all available information, we estimate the radius of a 1.4M⊙ neutron star to be R = 11.98+0.35−0.40 km.
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31.
  • Pang, Peter T. H., et al. (författare)
  • Nuclear Physics Multimessenger Astrophysics Constraints on the Neutron Star Equation of State : Adding NICER's PSR J0740+6620 Measurement
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 922:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In the past few years, new observations of neutron stars (NSs) and NS mergers have provided a wealth of data that allow one to constrain the equation of state (EOS) of nuclear matter at densities above nuclear saturation density. However, most observations were based on NSs with masses of about 1.4 M⊙, probing densities up to ∼three to four times the nuclear saturation density. Even higher densities are probed inside massive NSs such as PSR J0740+6620. Very recently, new radio observations provided an update to the mass estimate for PSR J0740+6620, and X-ray observations by the NICER and XMM telescopes constrained its radius. Based on these new measurements, we revisit our previous nuclear physics multimessenger astrophysics constraints and derive updated constraints on the EOS describing the NS interior. By combining astrophysical observations of two radio pulsars, two NICER measurements, the two gravitational-wave detections GW170817 and GW190425, detailed modeling of the kilonova AT 2017gfo, and the gamma-ray burst GRB 170817A, we are able to estimate the radius of a typical 1.4 M⊙ NS to be 11.94 at 90% confidence. Our analysis allows us to revisit the upper bound on the maximum mass of NSs and disfavors the presence of a strong first-order phase transition from nuclear matter to exotic forms of matter, such as quark matter, inside NSs.
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32.
  • Petrov, Polina, et al. (författare)
  • Data-driven Expectations for Electromagnetic Counterpart Searches Based on LIGO/Virgo Public Alerts
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 924:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Searches for electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational-wave signals have redoubled since the first detection in 2017 of a binary neutron star merger with a gamma-ray burst, optical/infrared kilonova, and panchromatic afterglow. Yet, one LIGO/Virgo observing run later, there has not yet been a second, secure identification of an electromagnetic counterpart. This is not surprising given that the localization uncertainties of events in LIGO and Virgo's third observing run, O3, were much larger than predicted. We explain this by showing that improvements in data analysis that now allow LIGO/Virgo to detect weaker and hence more poorly localized events have increased the overall number of detections, of which well-localized, gold-plated events make up a smaller proportion overall. We present simulations of the next two LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing runs, O4 and O5, that are grounded in the statistics of O3 public alerts. To illustrate the significant impact that the updated predictions can have, we study the follow-up strategy for the Zwicky Transient Facility. Realistic and timely forecasting of gravitational-wave localization accuracy is paramount given the large commitments of telescope time and the need to prioritize which events are followed up. We include a data release of our simulated localizations as a public proposal planning resource for astronomers.
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33.
  • Putora, Paul Martin, et al. (författare)
  • Diagnostic imaging strategies of acute intracerebral hemorrhage in European academic hospitals—a decision-making analysis
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Neuroradiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-3940 .- 1432-1920. ; 65:4, s. 729-736
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Purpose: To evaluate and compare which factors are relevant to the diagnostic decision-making and imaging workup of intracerebral hemorrhages in large, specialized European centers. Methods: Expert neuroradiologists from ten large, specialized centers (where endovascular stroke treatment is routinely performed) in nine European countries were selected in cooperation with the European Society of Neuroradiology (ESNR). The experts were asked to describe how and when they would investigate specific causes in a patient who presented with an acute, atraumatic, intracerebral hemorrhage for two given locations: (1) basal ganglia, thalamus, pons or cerebellum; (2) lobar hemorrhage. Answers were collected, and decision trees were compared. Results: Criteria that were considered relevant for decision-making reflect recommendations from current guidelines and were similar in all participating centers. CT Angiography or MR angiography was considered essential by the majority of centers regardless of other factors. Imaging in clinical practice tended to surpass guideline recommendations and was heterogeneous among different centers, e.g., in a scenario suggestive of typical hypertensive hemorrhage, recommendations ranged from no further follow-up imaging to CT angiography and MR angiography. In no case was a consensus above 60% achieved. Conclusion: In European clinical practices, existing guidelines for diagnostic imaging strategies in ICH evaluation are followed as a basis but in most cases, additional imaging investigation is undertaken. Significant differences in imaging workup were observed among the centers. Results suggest a high level of awareness and caution regarding potentially underlying pathology other than hypertensive disease.
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34.
  • Raaijmakers, Geert, et al. (författare)
  • The Challenges Ahead for Multimessenger Analyses of Gravitational Waves and Kilonova : A Case Study on GW190425
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 922:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In recent years, there have been significant advances in multimessenger astronomy due to the discovery of the first, and so far only confirmed, gravitational wave event with a simultaneous electromagnetic (EM) counterpart, as well as improvements in numerical simulations, gravitational wave (GW) detectors, and transient astronomy. This has led to the exciting possibility of performing joint analyses of the GW and EM data, providing additional constraints on fundamental properties of the binary progenitor and merger remnant. Here, we present a new Bayesian framework that allows inference of these properties, while taking into account the systematic modeling uncertainties that arise when mapping from GW binary progenitor properties to photometric light curves. We extend the relative binning method presented in Zackay et al. to include extrinsic GW parameters for fast analysis of the GW signal. The focus of our EM framework is on light curves arising from r-process nucleosynthesis in the ejected material during and after merger, the so-called kilonova, and particularly on black hole-neutron star systems. As a case study, we examine the recent detection of GW190425, where the primary object is consistent with being either a black hole or a neutron star. We show quantitatively how improved mapping between binary progenitor and outflow properties, and/or an increase in EM data quantity and quality are required in order to break degeneracies in the fundamental source parameters.
  •  
35.
  • Rashti, Alireza, et al. (författare)
  • New pseudospectral code for the construction of initial data
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 105:10
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Numerical studies of the dynamics of gravitational systems, e.g., black hole-neutron star systems, require physical and constraint-satisfying initial data. In this article, we present the newly developed pseudospectral code elliptica, an infrastructure for construction of initial data for various binary and single gravitational systems of all kinds. The elliptic equations under consideration are solved on a single spatial hypersurface of the spacetime manifold. Using coordinate maps, the hypersurface is covered by patches whose boundaries can adapt to the surface of the compact objects. To solve elliptic equations with arbitrary boundary condition, elliptica deploys a Schur complement domain decomposition method with a direct solver. In this version, we use cubed sphere coordinate maps and the fields are expanded using Chebyshev polynomials of the first kind. Here, we explain the building blocks of elliptica and the initial data construction algorithm for a black hole-neutron star binary system. We perform convergence tests and evolve the data to validate our results. Within our framework, the neutron star can reach spin values close to breakup with arbitrary direction, while the black hole can have arbitrary spin with dimensionless spin magnitude ∼0.8.
  •  
36.
  • Shrestha, Manisha, et al. (författare)
  • Impact of jets on kilonova photometric and polarimetric emission from binary neutron star mergers
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 523:2, s. 2990-3000
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • A merger of binary neutron stars creates heavy unstable elements whose radioactive decay produces a thermal emission known as a kilonova. In this paper, we predict the photometric and polarimetric behaviour of this emission by performing 3D Monte Carlo radiative transfer simulations. In particular, we choose three hydrodynamical models for merger ejecta, two including jets with different luminosities and one without a jet structure, to help decipher the impact of jets on the light curve and polarimetric behaviour. In terms of photometry, we find distinct colour evolutions across the three models. Models without a jet show the highest variation in light curves for different viewing angles. In contrast to previous studies, we find models with a jet to produce fainter kilonovae when viewed from orientations close to the jet axis, compared to a model without a jet. In terms of polarimetry, we predict relatively low levels (similar to 0.3-0.4 per cent) at all orientations that, however, remain non-negligible until a few days after the merger and longer than previously found. Despite the low levels, we find that the presence of a jet enhances the degree of polarization at wavelengths ranging from 0.25 to 2.5 mu m, an effect that is found to increase with the jet luminosity. Thus, future photometric and polarimetric campaigns should observe kilonovae in blue and red filters for a few days after the merger to help constrain the properties of the ejecta (e.g. composition) and jet.
  •  
37.
  • Stachie, Cosmin, et al. (författare)
  • Predicting electromagnetic counterparts using low-latency gravitational-wave data products
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 505:3, s. 4235-4248
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Searches for gravitational-wave counterparts have been going in earnest since GW170817 and the discovery of AT2017gfo. Since then, the lack of detection of other optical counterparts connected to binary neutron star or black hole-neutron star candidates has highlighted the need for a better discrimination criterion to support this effort. At the moment, low-latency gravitational-wave alerts contain preliminary information about binary properties and hence whether a detected binary might have an electromagnetic counterpart. The current alert method is a classifier that estimates the probability that there is a debris disc outside the black hole created during the merger as well as the probability of a signal being a binary neutron star, a black hole-neutron star, a binary black hole, or of terrestrial origin. In this work, we expand upon this approach to both predict the ejecta properties and provide contours of potential light curves for these events, in order to improve the follow-up observation strategy. The various sources of uncertainty are discussed, and we conclude that our ignorance about the ejecta composition and the insufficient constraint of the binary parameters by low-latency pipelines represent the main limitations. To validate the method, we test our approach on real events from the second and third Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO)-Virgo observing runs.
  •  
38.
  • Tews, Ingo, et al. (författare)
  • On the Nature of GW190814 and Its Impact on the Understanding of Supranuclear Matter
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 908:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The observation of a compact object with a mass of 2.50-2.67M99.9%. Even if we weaken previously employed constraints on the maximum mass of neutron stars, the probability of a binary black hole origin is still similar to 81%. Furthermore, we study the impact that this observation has on our understanding of the nuclear equation of state by analyzing the allowed region in the mass-radius diagram of neutron stars for both a binary black hole or neutron star-black hole scenario. We find that the unlikely scenario in which the secondary object was a neutron star requires rather stiff equations of state with a maximum speed of sound c(x) >= root 0.6 times the speed of light, while the binary black hole scenario does not offer any new insight.
  •  
39.
  • Ujevic, Maximiliano, et al. (författare)
  • Reverse phase transitions in binary neutron-star systems with exotic-matter cores
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 107:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Multimessenger observations of binary neutron-star mergers provide a unique opportunity to constrain the dense-matter equation of state. Although it is known from quantum chromodynamics that hadronic matter will undergo a phase transition to exotic forms of matter—e.g., quark matter—the onset density of such a phase transition cannot be computed from first principles. Hence, it remains an open question if such phase transitions occur inside isolated neutron stars or during binary neutron-star mergers, or if they appear at even higher densities that are not realized in the cosmos. In this article, we perform numerical relativity simulations of neutron-star mergers and investigate scenarios in which the onset density of such a phase transition is exceeded in at least one inspiraling binary component. Our simulations reveal that shortly before the merger, it is possible that such stars undergo a “reverse phase transition”—i.e., densities decrease and the quark core inside the star disappears, leaving a purely hadronic star at merger. After the merger, when densities increase once more, the phase transition occurs again and leads, in the cases considered in this work, to the rapid formation of a black hole. We compute the gravitational-wave signal and the mass ejection for our simulations of such scenarios and find clear signatures that are related to the postmerger phase transition—e.g., smaller ejecta masses due to the softening of the equation of state through the quark core formation. Unfortunately, we do not find measurable imprints of the reverse phase transition.
  •  
40.
  • Weikert, Cornelia, et al. (författare)
  • Lifetime and baseline alcohol intake and risk of cancer of the upper aero-digestive tract in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition (EPIC) study
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - Geneve : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 125:2, s. 406-412
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Recent alcohol consumption is all established risk factor for squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) or the upper aero-digestive tract. In contrast, the role or lifetime exposure to alcohol with regard to risk of SCC is not well established. Historical data oil alcohol use are available in 271,253 participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). During 2,330,381 person years, 392 incident SCC cases (279 men and 113 women) were identified. Cox regression vas applied to model sex-specific associations between lifetime alcohol intake and SCC risk adjusting for potential confounders including smoking. Compared to men who drank 0.1-6.0 g/day alcohol at lifetime, the relative risks (RR) for developing SCC were significantly increased for men who drank 30.1-60.0 g/day (RR 1.65, 95% confidence interval: 1.00-2.71), 60.1-96.0 g/day (RR 2.20, 95%CI 1.23-3.95), and >96.0 g/day, (RR 4.63, 95% CI 2.52-8.48), and for former drinkers (RR 4.14, 95% CI 2.38-7.19). These risk estimates did not considerably change when baseline alcohol intake was analyzed. Compared to women who drank 0.1-6.0 g/day alcohol intake at lifetime, the RR were significantly increased for women who drank >30 g/d (RR 6.05, 95% CI 2.98-12.3). Applying similar categories, the relative risk for baseline alcohol intake was 3.26 (95%CI 1.82-5.87). We observed a stronger association between alcohol intake at lifetime and risk of SCC in women compared to men (p for interaction = 0.045). The strong dose-response relation for lifetime alcohol use underscores that alcohol is an important risk factor of SCC of the upper aero-digestive tract throughout life. (C) 2009 UICC
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