| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Börjesson, Maria, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Catching the tail : Empirical identification of the distribution of the value of travel time
- 2012
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A. - : Elsevier BV. - 0965-8564 .- 1879-2375. ; 46:2, s. 378-391
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent methodological advances in discrete choice analysis in combination with certain stated choice experiments have allowed researchers to check empirically the identification of the distribution of latent variables such as the value of travel time (VTT). Lack of identification is likely to be common and the consequences are severe. E.g., the Danish value of time study found the 15% right tail of the VTT distribution to be unidentified, making it impossible to estimate the mean VTT without resorting to strong assumptions with equally strong impact on the resulting estimate. This paper analyses data generated from a similar choice experiment undertaken in Sweden during 2007–2008 in which the range of trade-off values between time and money was significantly increased relative to the Danish experiment. The results show that this change allowed empirical identification of effectively the entire VTT distribution. In addition to informing the design of future choice experiments, the results are also of interest as a validity test of the stated choice methodology. Failure in identifying the right tail of the VTT would have made it difficult to maintain that respondents’ behaviour is consistent with utility maximisation in the sense intended by the experimenter.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Börjesson, Maria, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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On the income elasticity of the value of travel time
- 2012
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A. - : Pergamon Press. - 0965-8564 .- 1879-2375. ; 46:2, s. 368-377
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Transport infrastructure is long-term and in appraisal it is necessary to value travel time savings for future years. This requires knowing how the value of time (VTT) will develop over time as incomes grow. This paper investigates if the cross-sectional income elasticity of the VTT is equal to inter-temporal income elasticity. The study is based on two identical stated choice experiments conducted with a 13. year interval. Results indicate that the relationship between income and the VTT in the cross-section has remained unchanged over time. As a consequence, the inter-temporal income elasticity of the VTT can be predicted based on cross-sectional income elasticity. However, the income elasticity of the VTT is not a constant but increases with income. For this reason, the average income elasticity of the VTT in the cross-sections has increased between the two survey years and can be expected to increase further over time.
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| 5. |
- Börjesson, Maria, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Response time patterns in a stated choice experiment
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Choice Modelling. - : Elsevier BV. - 1755-5345. ; 14, s. 48-58
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper studies how response times vary between unlabelled binary choice occasions in a stated choice (SC) experiment, with alternatives differing with respect to in-vehicle travel time and travel cost. The pattern of response times is interpreted as an indicator of the cognitive processes employed by the respondents when making their choices. We find clear signs of reference-dependence in response times in the form of a strong gain-loss asymmetry. Moreover, different patterns of response times for travel time and travel cost indicate that these attributes are processed in different ways by respondents. This may be of particular relevance for choice experiments in the transportation field, where the travel time attribute is central.
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| 6. |
- Börjesson, Maria, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
-
The income elasticity of the value of travel time is not one number
- 2009
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the European Transport Conference. - : Association for European Transport.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper provides new evidence on the evolution of the value of travel time (VTT) over time and its relation to income based on two essentially identical Stated Choice experiments conducted at an interval of 13 years. The results indicate that the income elasticity of the VTT is not uniform over income but increasing in income. As a consequence, the average rate at which the VTT increases with income in the cross-sectional samples has itself increased between the two survey years and can be expected to increase further over time. The estimation results support the idea that the income elasticity of the value of time has remained constant at each real income level. This confirms that it is not so much the relationship between income and the value of travel time that has changed over time as it is the level and distribution of income in the samples that has changed.
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| 7. |
- De Borger, Bruno, et al.
(författare)
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Information provision by regulated public transport companies
- 2012
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part B. - : Elsevier BV. - 0191-2615 .- 1879-2367. ; 46:4, s. 492-510
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We study the interaction between pricing, frequency of service and information provision by public transport firms offering scheduled services, and we do so under various regulatory regimes. The model assumes that users can come to the bus stop or rail station at random or they can plan their trips; the fraction of users who plan their trips is endogenous and depends on the frequency of service and on the quality of information provided. Four institutional regimes are considered, reflecting various degrees of government regulation. A numerical example illustrates the theoretical results. Findings include the following. First, fare regulation induces the firm to provide less frequency and less information than is socially optimal. Second, if information and frequency did not affect the number of planning users a higher fare always induces the firm to raise both frequency and the quality of information. With endogenous planning, however, this need not be the case, as the effect of higher fares strongly depends on how frequency and information quality affect the number of planners. Third, a profit-maximizing firm offers more information than a fare-regulated firm. Fourth, if the agency regulates both the fare and the quality of information then more stringent information requirements induce the firm to reduce frequency; this strongly limits the welfare improvement of information regulation. Finally, of all institutional structures considered, socially optimal fares, frequency and quality of information stimulate passengers least to plan their trips, because the high frequency offered reduces the benefits of trip planning.
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| 8. |
- Eliasson, Jonas, et al.
(författare)
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Cost-benefit analysis of transport improvements in the presence of spillovers, matching and an income tax
- 2019
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Ingår i: Economics of Transportation. - : Elsevier BV. - 2212-0122 .- 2212-0130. ; 18, s. 1-9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper addresses the problem of measuring the welfare benefits of a transport improvement. We formulate and analyze a rich spatial model that allows for spillovers, matching and income tax, in a setting with multiple work and residential locations and very general worker heterogeneity. The conventional consumer surplus captures part of the benefits and is calculated based on predictions of changes in travel demand and transport costs. The issue is to determine which so-called wider impacts to add to this. We find that adding the change in total output as a wider impact leads to double-counting of benefits. The output change due to spillovers should be added, while the output change due to matching is already partly included in the consumer surplus. These results are useful for applied cost-benefit analysis of transport policies
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| 9. |
- Eliasson, Jonas, et al.
(författare)
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Cost overruns and demand shortfalls - Deception or selection?
- 2013
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part B. - : Elsevier BV. - 0191-2615 .- 1879-2367. ; 57, s. 105-113
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A number of highly cited papers by Flyvbjerg and associates have shown that ex ante infrastructure appraisals tend to be overly optimistic. Ex post evaluations indicate a bias where investment costs are higher and benefits lower on average than predicted ex ante. These authors argue that the bias must be attributed to intentional misrepresentation by project developers. This paper shows that the bias may arise simply as a selection bias, without there being any bias at all in predictions ex ante, and that such a bias is bound to arise whenever ex ante predictions are related to the decisions whether to implement projects. Using a database of projects we present examples indicating that the selection bias may be substantial. The examples also indicate that benefit-cost ratios remain a useful selection criterion even when cost and benefits are highly uncertain, gainsaying the argument that such uncertainties render cost-benefit analyses useless.
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| 10. |
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| 11. |
- Engelson, Leonid, et al.
(författare)
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Additive measures of travel time variability
- 2011
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part B. - : Elsevier BV. - 0191-2615 .- 1879-2367. ; 45:10, s. 1560-1571
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper derives a measure of travel time variability for travellers equipped with scheduling preferences defined in terms of time-varying utility rates, and who choose departure time optimally. The corresponding value of travel time variability is a constant that depends only on preference parameters. The measure is unique in being additive with respect to independent parts of a trip. It has the variance of travel time as a special case. Extension is provided to the case of travellers who use a scheduled service with fixed headway.
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
- Engelson, Leonid, et al.
(författare)
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Scheduling preferences and the value of travel time information
- 2020
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part B. - : PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD. - 0191-2615 .- 1879-2367. ; 134, s. 256-265
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we derive the value of a signal obtained by a traveller prior to the choice of departure time. The signal does not have to be a perfect prediction of the travel time. It is sufficient that it carries information about the travel time. The traveller may then consider the distribution of travel time conditional on the signal to increase her expected utility by making a better informed choice of departure time. We show that a signal always increases the expected utility compared to the situation without any signal. For a broad class of signals, the expected utility is monotone with respect to signal strength. Furthermore, we demonstrate that even perfect travel time information does not necessarily eliminate the cost of travel time variability and we establish necessary and sufficient conditions for when it does. We find that the predictable part of travel time variability may or may not be costly, depending on the shape of the traveller's scheduling utility at the origin of the trip. Using estimates of scheduling preferences from the literature, we show that the cost of predictable travel time variability may constitute a substantial part of the total cost of travel time variability. In a particular case of scheduling preferences, travel time distribution and noise distribution, we establish an analytic relationship between the strength of the signal and the expected utility of the trip and evaluate the marginal cost of signal weakness. This knowledge may facilitate design and cost-benefit analysis of traveller information systems and policies decreasing travel time variability. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 14. |
- Engelson, Leonid, et al.
(författare)
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The cost of travel time variability : Three measures with properties
- 2016
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part B. - : Elsevier. - 0191-2615 .- 1879-2367. ; 91, s. 555-564
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper explores the relationships between three types of measures of the cost of travel time variability: measures based on scheduling preferences and implicit departure time choice, Bernoulli type measures based on a univariate function of travel time, and mean-dispersion measures. We characterise measures that are both scheduling measures and mean-dispersion measures and measures that are both Bernoulli and mean-dispersion. There are no measures that are both scheduling and Bernoulli. We consider the impact of requiring that measures are additive or homogeneous, proving also a new strong result on the utility rates in an additive scheduling measure. These insights are useful for selecting cost measures to use in applications.
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| 15. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens, et al.
(författare)
-
A dynamic discrete choice approach for consistent route choice model estimation
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of the Swiss Transport Research Conference.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- We propose a dynamic discrete choice approach for consistently estimating route choice model parameters based on path observations using maximum likelihood. The approach is computationally efficient and does not require choice set sampling.
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| 16. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens, et al.
(författare)
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A link based network route choice model with unrestricted choice set
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Transportation Research Part B. - : Elsevier BV. - 0191-2615 .- 1879-2367. ; 56, s. 70-80
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper considers the path choice problem, formulating and discussing an econometric random utility model for the choice of path in a network with no restriction on the choice set. Starting from a dynamic specification of link choices we show that it is equivalent to a static model of the multinomial logit form but with infinitely many alternatives. The model can be consistently estimated and used for prediction in a computationally efficient way. Similarly to the path size logit model, we propose an attribute called link size that corrects utilities of overlapping paths but that is link additive. The model is applied to data recording path choices in a network with more than 3000 nodes and 7000 links.
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| 17. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens, et al.
(författare)
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Between-mode-differences in the value of travel time : Self-selection or strategic behaviour?
- 2010
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part D. - : Elsevier BV. - 1361-9209 .- 1879-2340. ; 15:7, s. 370-381
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using stated preference survey data, we measure the value of travel time for several transport modes. We find, like many before us, that the value of travel time varies across modes in the opposite direction of what would be the consequence of differences in comfort. We examine three candidate causes for the observed differences: Comfort effects, self-selection and strategic behaviour of respondents. Using experiments with both the current and an alternative mode we find that the differences in the value of travel time are consistent with self-selection and comfort effects. Moreover, respondents having bus as the current or the alternative mode seem not to value comfort differently across modes. Strategic behaviour seems to play no role. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 18. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens, et al.
(författare)
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Categorical Screening with Rational Inattention
- 2020
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Ingår i: SSRN Electronic Journal. - : Elsevier BV. - 1556-5068.
-
Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- A rationally inattentive screener evaluates a heterogeneous pool of candidates, aiming to let only high-productivity candidates pass. Candidates belong to distinct and observable social categories. There is heterogenity across categories along multiple dimensions, including the costs of investment in skills, the costs of being screened, and the degree of bias faced in the screening process. Candidates choose how much effort to invest in skill development before being screened, with a payoff in a post-screening market that depends on the screening outcome. We characterize equilibrium behavior in this model, and use it to unify and extend several strands in the literature on categorical inequality, including statistical discrimination, prejudice, and social capital.
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| 19. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens, et al.
(författare)
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Choice probability generating functions
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Choice Modelling. - : ELSEVIER SCI LTD. - 1755-5345. ; 8, s. 1-18
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models.
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| 20. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens, et al.
(författare)
-
Commuting for meetings
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Urban Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0094-1190 .- 1095-9068. ; 81, s. 104-113
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Urban congestion causes travel times to exhibit considerable variability, which leads to coordination problems when people have to meet. We analyze a game for the timing of a meeting between two players who must each complete a trip of random duration to reach the meeting, which does not begin until both are present. Players prefer to depart later and also to arrive sooner, provided they do not have to wait for the other player. We find a unique Nash equilibrium, and a continuum of Pareto optima that are strictly better than the Nash equilibrium for both players. Pareto optima may be implemented as Nash equilibria by penalty or compensation schemes.
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| 21. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens, et al.
(författare)
-
Congestion in a city with a central bottleneck
- 2012
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Ingår i: Journal of Urban Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0094-1190 .- 1095-9068. ; 71:3, s. 269-277
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We consider dynamic congestion in an urban setting where trip origins are spatially distributed. All travelers must pass through a downtown bottleneck in order to reach their destination in the CBD. Each traveler chooses departure time to maximize general concave scheduling utility. We find that, at equilibrium, travelers sort according to their distance to the destination; the queue is always unimodal regardless of the spatial distribution of trip origins. We construct a welfare maximizing tolling regime, which eliminates congestion. All travelers located beyond a critical distance from the CBD gain from tolling, even when toll revenues are not redistributed, while nearby travelers lose. We discuss our results in the context of acceptability of tolling policies.
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| 22. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens
(författare)
-
Congestion in the bathtub
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Economics of Transportation. - : Elsevier BV. - 2212-0122 .- 2212-0130. ; 4:4, s. 241-255
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a model of urban traffic congestion that allows for hypercongestion. Hypercongestion has fundamental importance for the costs of congestion and the effect of policies such as road pricing, transit provision and traffic management, treated in the paper. In the simplest version of the model, the unregulated Nash equilibrium is also the social optimum among a wide range of potential outcomes and any reasonable road pricing scheme will be welfare decreasing. Large welfare gains can be achieved through road pricing when there is hypercongestion and travelers are heterogeneous.
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| 23. |
|
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| 24. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens, et al.
(författare)
-
Costly Screening and Categorical Inequality
- 2020
-
Ingår i: SSRN Electronic Journal. - : Elsevier BV. - 1556-5068.
-
Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We consider a rationally inattentive screener who evaluates a pool of candidates composed of distinct and observable social categories. There is heterogeneity across categories in the costs of being screened, the degree of bias faced in the screening process, and the costs of investment in skills. Candidates choose how much effort to invest before being screened, with a payoff in a post-screening market that depends on the screening outcome. We characterize equilibrium in this model, and use it to unify and extend several strands in the literature on categorical inequality, including statistical discrimination, prejudice, and social capital.
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| 25. |
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| 26. |
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| 27. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens, et al.
(författare)
-
Equilibrium Screening and Categorical Inequality
- 2023
-
Ingår i: American Economic Journal: Microeconomics. - : American Economic Association. - 1945-7685 .- 1945-7669. ; 15:3, s. 201-242
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We analyze equilibrium outcomes under costly screening of candidates from distinct categories. Candidates choose how much effort to invest in skill acquisition, and the screener decides how carefully to screen each candidate. Typically, there are multiple equilibria, and ex ante identical individuals in different categories can receive different equilibrium treatment. The imposition of a quota for an initially disadvantaged group can result in increased screening intensity and skill investment by destabilizing the least active equilibrium. The endogeneity of screening enables powerful comparative statics, which we use to unify different strands in the literature on discrimination.
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| 28. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens
(författare)
-
How a fast lane may replace a congestion tollle
- 2011
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part B. - : Elsevier BV. - 0191-2615 .- 1879-2367. ; 45:6, s. 845-851
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper considers a congested bottleneck. A fast lane reserves a more than proportional share of capacity to a designated group of travelers. Travelers are otherwise identical and other travelers can use the reserved capacity when it would otherwise be idle. The paper shows that such a fast lane is always Pareto improving under Nash equilibrium in arrival times at the bottleneck and inelastic demand. It can replicate the arrival schedule and queueing outcomes of a toll that optimally charges a constant toll during part of the demand peak. Within some bounds, the fast lane scheme is still welfare improving when demand is elastic.
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| 29. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens, et al.
(författare)
-
Hypercongestion in downtown metropolis
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Journal of Urban Economics. - : ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE. - 0094-1190 .- 1095-9068. ; 76, s. 122-134
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Engineering studies demonstrate that traffic in dense downtown areas obeys a stable functional relationship between average speed and density, including a region of 'hypercongestion', where flow decreases with density. This situation can be described as queuing behind a bottleneck whose capacity declines when the queue is large. We combine such a variable-capacity bottleneck with Vickrey scheduling preferences for the special case, where there are only two possible levels of capacity. Solving the model leads to several new insights, including that the marginal cost of adding a traveler is especially sensitive to the lowest level of capacity reached. We analyze an optimal toll, a coarse toll, and metering, showing substantial benefits from using these policies to eliminate the period of reduced capacity. Under hypercongestion, all of these policies can be designed so that travelers gain even without considering any toll revenues.
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| 30. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens, et al.
(författare)
-
Invariance of the distribution of the maximum
-
Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Many models in economics involve probabilistic choices where each decision-maker selects the best alternative from a finite set. Viewing the value of each alternative as a random variable, the analyst is then interested in the choice probabilities, that is, the probability for an alternative to give the maximum value. Much analytical power can be gained, both for positive and normative analysis, if the maximum value is statistically independent of which alternative obtains the highest value. This note synthesizes and generalizes previous results on this invariance property. We provide characterizations of this property within a wide class of distributions that comprises the McFadden GEV class, show implications in several directions, and establish connections with copulas. We illustrate the usefulness of the invariance property by way of a few examples.
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| 31. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens, et al.
(författare)
-
Manipulating a stated choice experiment
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Journal of Choice Modelling. - : Elsevier BV. - 1755-5345. ; 16, s. 43-49
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper considers the design of a stated choice experiment intended to measure the marginal rate of substitution (MRS) between cost and an attribute such as time using a conventional logit model. Focusing the experimental design on some target MRS will bias estimates towards that value. The paper shows why this happens. The resulting estimated MRS can then be manipulated by adapting the target MRS in the experimental design.
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| 32. |
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| 33. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens, et al.
(författare)
-
Road pricing with complications
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Transportation. - : SPRINGER. - 0049-4488 .- 1572-9435. ; 40:3, s. 479-503
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The rationale for congestion charges is that by internalising the marginal external congestion cost, they restore efficiency in the transport market. In the canonical model underlying this view, congestion is a static phenomenon, users are taken to be homogenous, there is no travel time risk, and a highly stylised model of congestion is used. The simple analysis also ignores that real pricing schemes are only rough approximations to ideal systems and that inefficiencies in related markets potentially affect the case for congestion charges. The canonical model tends to understate the marginal external congestion cost because it ignores user heterogeneity and trip timing inefficiencies. With respect to the relevance of interactions between congestion and congestion charges and tax distortions and distributional concerns, recent insights point out that there is no general case for modifying charges for such interactions. Therefore the simple Pigouvian rule remains a good first approximation for the design of road charging systems.
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| 34. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens, et al.
(författare)
-
Route choice modeling without route choice
- 2009
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of the European Transport Conference.
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Route choice modeling is complex. The number of alternative paths is often very large, while the paths are likely to share unobserved attributes which induces correlation. When modelling this, we face a trade-off between using models that are simple enough to handle many alternative paths while at the same time being able to handle correlation. There is a substantial ongoing research effort seeking to resolve this dilemma, so far with limited success. For these reasons the multinomial logit model (path size logit and c-logit proposed by Ben-Akiva and Bierliare, 1999, and Cascetta et. al., 1996, respectively) is widely used in spite of its known limitations.The main purpose of this paper is to present and test a dynamic discrete choice approach for the estimation of the parameters of a route choice model. In the dynamic modeling approach, the individual is seen as taking sequential decisions on which link to choose, and the choices are made at the nodes in the network. The obvious advantage with this approach is that the choice set at every stage is quite small and well defined, while a correlation structure is naturally imposed among different paths, even if each sequential decision follows a multinomial logit model. From an econometric point of view, the link choice model can be a lot simper to deal with.The utility maximising choice of path may be broken down into a sequence of link choices, where at each stage the individual considers the utility associated with downstream link choices accumulated into a value function. However, if we were to compute the value function associated with the available link choices at every stage, the complexity of the problem would be at least the same as the original path choice problem. An exact solution method to calculate the value function runs into the curse of dimensionality when solving a dynamic programming problem. Therefore, the computational burden may be prohibitive for large networks if one tries to solve the dynamic programming problem by brute force. This is probably why the sequential approach is not used for estimating route choice models in spite of having been around for many years (e.g., Dial, 1971).However, it is not strictly necessary to solve the dynamic programming problem in order to estimate the parameters of the route choice model consistently. It is sufficient to find a suitable approximation to the value function. So the objective of this paper is to test whether it is possible to generate good predictors for the value function such that the parameters of the route choice model may be estimated on link choices rather than path choices. If this turns out to be possible, then both the econometric and computational complexity of route choice modelling may be dramatically reduced.The paper therefore discusses the conditions under which the route choice model can be consistently estimated. We then test the approach using simulated data for a real network (Borlänge, Sweden), where route choice observations are generated using the exact model, i.e. solving the dynamic programming problem. This allows us to compare the exact value functions with the approximations. We show how the approximation can be defined using proxy variables such as direction and distance to destination. The paper concludes with a discussion on the use of the model for prediction (policy analysis) and related issues.
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| 35. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens, et al.
(författare)
-
The dynamics of urban traffic congestion and the price of parking
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Journal of Public Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0047-2727 .- 1879-2316. ; 105, s. 106-115
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We consider commuting in a congested urban area. While an efficient time-varying toll may eliminate queuing, a toll may not be politically feasible. We study the benefit of a substitute: a parking fee at the workplace. An optimal time-varying parking fee is charged at zero rate when there is queuing and eliminates queuing when the rate is non-zero. Within certain limits, inability to charge some drivers for parking does not reduce the potential welfare gain. Drivers who cannot be charged travel when there is queuing. In some cases, interaction between morning and evening commutes can be exploited to remove queuing completely.
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| 36. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens, et al.
(författare)
-
The value of reliability
- 2010
-
Ingår i: Transportation Research Part B. - : Elsevier BV. - 0191-2615 .- 1879-2367. ; 44:1, s. 38-49
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We derive the value of reliability in the scheduling of an activity of random duration, such as travel under congested conditions. Using a simple formulation of scheduling utility, we show that the maximal expected utility is linear in the mean and standard deviation of trip duration, regardless of the form of the standardised distribution of trip durations. This insight provides a unification of the scheduling model and models that include the standard deviation of trip duration directly as an argument in the cost or utility function. The results generalise approximately to the case where the mean and standard deviation of trip duration depend on the starting time. An empirical illustration is provided.
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| 37. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens, et al.
(författare)
-
The value of travel time variance
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Transportation Research Part B. - : Elsevier BV. - 0191-2615 .- 1879-2367. ; 45:1, s. 1-8
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper considers the value of travel time variability under scheduling preferences that are defined in terms of linearly time varying utility rates associated with being at the origin and at the destination. The main result is a simple expression for the value of travel time variability that does not depend on the shape of the travel time distribution. The related measure of travel time variability is the variance of travel time. These conclusions apply equally to travellers who can freely choose departure time and to travellers who use a scheduled service with fixed headway. Depending on parameters, travellers may be risk averse or risk seeking and the value of travel time may increase or decrease in the mean travel time.
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| 38. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens, et al.
(författare)
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Valuing travel time variability : Characteristics of the travel time distribution on an urban road
- 2012
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part C. - : Elsevier BV. - 0968-090X .- 1879-2359. ; 24, s. 83-101
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper provides a detailed empirical investigation of the distribution of travel times on an urban road for valuation of travel time variability. Our investigation is premised on the use of a theoretical model with a number of desirable properties. The definition of the value of travel time variability depends on certain properties of the distribution of random travel times that require empirical verification. Applying a range of nonparametric statistical techniques to data giving minute-by-minute travel times for a congested urban road over a period of five months, we show that the standardized travel time is roughly independent of the time of day as required by the theory. Except for the extreme right tail, a stable distribution seems to fit the data well. The travel time distributions on consecutive links seem to share a common stability parameter such that the travel time distribution for a sequence of links is also a stable distribution. The parameters of the travel time distribution for a sequence of links can then be derived analytically from the link level distributions.
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| 39. |
- Haraldsson, Mattias, 1972-
(författare)
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Essays on Transport Economics
- 2007
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Essay 1: The wear and tear of an extra vehicle that uses a road results in advancementof future repavements. This increases the present value cost of these repavements, which is interpreted as the marginal cost. Using a large data set covering all pavement renewals on the Swedish national road network since the 1950s, deterioration elasticities that express the relation between traffic intensity and the pavement lifetime are estimated and are then used to compute marginal costs. The elasticities for heavy goods vehicles and passenger cars are found to be small and marginal costs are accordingly low. Essay 2: Using observational data covering the whole Swedish national road network for the period 1998-2002, this essay estimates a set of maintenance and operation cost functions.It is found that costs for all operation and maintenance measures increase with traffic intensity, with two exceptions; total operation and winter operation measures are fixed cost activities. All other operation and maintenance measures have short run elasticities in the range 0.25-0.60. The impact of an additional vehicle is generally manifested in extra maintenance and operation costs, not only while the vehicle is using the road, but later on as well. Point estimates of long run cost elasticities are higher than one in general. Essay 3: This essay estimates the long run effects of distance work on various aspects of the activity-travel pattern. Estimations are made using econometric matching on a data material from the Swedish travel survey, RES, a travel diary collected in the period 1999-2001. The activity-travel pattern of men seems to be irresponsive to distance work, while some aspects of the activity-travel pattern of women change due to distance work. For instance, it is found that distance-working women adopt a more “local” lifestyle where purchases and child care are moved closer to home.
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| 40. |
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| 41. |
- Hjorth, Katrine, et al.
(författare)
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Estimating exponential scheduling preferences
- 2015
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part B. - : Elsevier. - 0191-2615 .- 1879-2367. ; 81:1, s. 230-251
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Different assumptions about travelers' scheduling preferences yield different measures of the cost of travel time variability. Only few forms of scheduling preferences provide non-trivial measures which are additive over links in transport networks where link travel times are arbitrarily distributed independent random variables. Assuming smooth preferences, this holds only for specifications with a constant marginal utility of time at the origin and an exponential or affine marginal utility of time at the destination. We apply a generalized version of this model to stated preference data of car drivers' route and mode choice under uncertain travel times. Our analysis exposes some important methodological issues related to complex non-linear scheduling models. One issue is identifying the point in time where the marginal utility of being at the destination becomes larger than the marginal utility of being at the origin. Another issue is that models with the exponential marginal utility formulation suffer from empirical identification problems. Though our results are not decisive, they partly support the constant-affine specification, in which the value of travel time variability is proportional to the variance of travel time.
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| 42. |
- Hjorth, Katrine, et al.
(författare)
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Loss Aversion and Individual Characteristics
- 2011
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Ingår i: Environmental and Resource Economics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0924-6460 .- 1573-1502. ; 49:4, s. 573-596
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many studies have shown that loss aversion affects the valuation of non-market goods. Using stated choice data, this paper presents an empirical investigation of how individual-level loss aversion varies with observable personal characteristics and with the choice context. We investigate loss aversion with respect to travel time and money, and find significant loss aversion in both dimensions. The degree of loss aversion in the time dimension is larger than in the money dimension, and depends on age and education. Subjects tend to be more loss averse when the reference is well established.
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| 43. |
- Hjorth, Katrine, et al.
(författare)
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Using prospect theory to investigate the low marginal value of travel time for small time changes
- 2012
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part B. - : Elsevier BV. - 0191-2615 .- 1879-2367. ; 46:8, s. 917-932
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A common finding in stated preference studies that measure the value of travel time (VTT) is that the measured VTT increases with the size of the time change considered, in conflict with standard neoclassical economic theory. We present a new test of a possible explanation for the phenomenon that builds on the diminishing or constant sensitivity of the value functions in prospect theory. We use stated preference data with trade-offs between travel time and money that provide separate identification of the degrees of diminishing sensitivity for time and money gains and losses. This enables us to test and potentially falsify the prospect theory explanation. We conclude that prospect theory remains a potential explanation of the phenomenon.
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| 44. |
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| 49. |
- Mai, T., et al.
(författare)
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A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis
- 2015
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part B. - : Elsevier BV. - 0191-2615 .- 1879-2367. ; 75, s. 100-112
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modeled as a sequence of link choices and the model does not require any sampling of choice sets. Furthermore, the model can be consistently estimated and efficiently used for prediction.A key challenge lies in the computation of the value functions, i.e. the expected maximum utility from any position in the network to a destination. The value functions are the solution to a system of non-linear equations. We propose an iterative method with dynamic accuracy that allows to efficiently solve these systems.We report estimation results and a cross-validation study for a real network. The results show that the NRL model yields sensible parameter estimates and the fit is significantly better than the RL model. Moreover, the NRL model outperforms the RL model in terms of prediction.
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| 50. |
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