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1.	Lozano, Rafael, et al. (author) Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 2018 In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
2.	Murray, Christopher J. L., et al. (author) Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 2018 In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
3.	Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al. (author) Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 2018 In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
4.	Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al. (author) Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 2016 In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
5.	Wang, Haidong, et al. (author) Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 2016 In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
6.	Griswold, Max G., et al. (author) Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 2018 In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
7.	Mokdad, Ali H., et al. (author) Adolescent health in the Eastern Mediterranean Region : findings from the global burden of disease 2015 study 2018 In: International Journal of Public Health. - : SPRINGER BASEL AG. - 1661-8556 .- 1661-8564. ; 63, s. 79-96 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract The 22 countries of the East Mediterranean Region (EMR) have large populations of adolescents aged 10-24 years. These adolescents are central to assuring the health, development, and peace of this region. We described their health needs. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we report the leading causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents in the EMR from 1990 to 2015. We also report the prevalence of key health risk behaviors and determinants. Communicable diseases and the health consequences of natural disasters reduced substantially between 1990 and 2015. However, these gains have largely been offset by the health impacts of war and the emergence of non-communicable diseases (including mental health disorders), unintentional injury, and self-harm. Tobacco smoking and high body mass were common health risks amongst adolescents. Additionally, many EMR countries had high rates of adolescent pregnancy and unmet need for contraception. Even with the return of peace and security, adolescents will have a persisting poor health profile that will pose a barrier to socioeconomic growth and development of the EMR.
8.	Naghavi, Mohsen, et al. (author) Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 2015 In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
9.	Wang, Haidong, et al. (author) Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. 2016 In: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
10.	Bentham, James, et al. (author) A century of trends in adult human height 2016 In: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
11.	Bentham, James, et al. (author) A century of trends in adult human height 2016 In: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
12.	Di Cesare, Mariachiara, et al. (author) Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: A pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants 2016 In: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 387:10026, s. 1377-1396 Journal article (peer-reviewed)
13.	Mokdad, Ali H., et al. (author) Diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease in the Eastern Mediterranean Region : findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study 2018 In: International Journal of Public Health. - : SPRINGER BASEL AG. - 1661-8556 .- 1661-8564. ; 63, s. 177-186 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract We used findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to update our previous publication on the burden of diabetes and chronic kidney disease due to diabetes (CKD-DM) during 1990-2015. We extracted GBD 2015 estimates for prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of diabetes (including burden of low vision due to diabetes, neuropathy, and amputations and CKD-DM for 22 countries of the EMR from the GBD visualization tools. In 2015, 135,230 (95% UI 123,034-148,184) individuals died from diabetes and 16,470 (95% UI 13,977-18,961) from CKD-DM, 216 and 179% increases, respectively, compared to 1990. The total number of people with diabetes was 42.3 million (95% UI 38.6-46.4 million) in 2015. DALY rates of diabetes in 2015 were significantly higher than the expected rates based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Our study showed a large and increasing burden of diabetes in the region. There is an urgency in dealing with diabetes and its consequences, and these efforts should be at the forefront of health prevention and promotion.
14.	Bergman, Michael, et al. (author) International Diabetes Federation Position Statement on the 1-hour post-load plasma glucose for the diagnosis of intermediate hyperglycaemia and type 2 diabetes 2024 In: Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice. - 0168-8227. ; 209 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Many individuals with intermediate hyperglycaemia (IH), including impaired fasting glycaemia (IFG) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), as presently defined, will progress to type 2 diabetes (T2D). There is confirmatory evidence that T2D can be prevented by lifestyle modification and/or medications, in people with IGT diagnosed by 2-h plasma glucose (PG) during a 75-gram oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Over the last 40 years, a wealth of epidemiological data has confirmed the superior value of 1-h plasma glucose (PG) over fasting PG (FPG), glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and 2-h PG in populations of different ethnicity, sex and age in predicting diabetes and associated complications including death. Given the relentlessly rising prevalence of diabetes, a more sensitive, practical method is needed to detect people with IH and T2D for early prevention or treatment in the often lengthy trajectory to T2D and its complications. The International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Position Statement reviews findings that the 1-h post-load PG ≥ 155 mg/dL (8.6 mmol/L) in people with normal glucose tolerance (NGT) during an OGTT is highly predictive for detecting progression to T2D, micro- and macrovascular complications, obstructive sleep apnoea, cystic fibrosis-related diabetes mellitus, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, and mortality in individuals with risk factors. The 1-h PG of 209 mg/dL (11.6 mmol/L) is also diagnostic of T2D. Importantly, the 1-h PG cut points for diagnosing IH and T2D can be detected earlier than the recommended 2-h PG thresholds. Taken together, the 1-h PG provides an opportunity to avoid misclassification of glycaemic status if FPG or HbA1c alone are used. The 1-h PG also allows early detection of high-risk people for intervention to prevent progression to T2D which will benefit the sizeable and growing population of individuals at increased risk of T2D. Using a 1-h OGTT, subsequent to screening with a non-laboratory diabetes risk tool, and intervening early will favourably impact the global diabetes epidemic. Health services should consider developing a policy for screening for IH based on local human and technical resources. People with a 1-h PG ≥ 155 mg/dL (8.6 mmol/L) are considered to have IH and should be prescribed lifestyle intervention and referred to a diabetes prevention program. People with a 1-h PG ≥ 209 mg/dL (11.6 mmol/L) are considered to have T2D and should have a repeat test to confirm the diagnosis of T2D and then referred for further evaluation and treatment. The substantive data presented in the Position Statement provides strong evidence for redefining current diagnostic criteria for IH and T2D by adding the 1-h PG.
15.	Danaei, Goodarz, et al. (author) Effects of diabetes definition on global surveillance of diabetes prevalence and diagnosis: a pooled analysis of 96 population-based studies with 331288 participants 2015 In: The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. - 2213-8595 .- 2213-8587. ; 3:8, s. 624-637 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background Diabetes has been defined on the basis of different biomarkers, including fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h plasma glucose in an oral glucose tolerance test (2hOGTT), and HbA(1c). We assessed the effect of different diagnostic definitions on both the population prevalence of diabetes and the classification of previously undiagnosed individuals as having diabetes versus not having diabetes in a pooled analysis of data from population-based health examination surveys in different regions. Methods We used data from 96 population-based health examination surveys that had measured at least two of the biomarkers used for defining diabetes. Diabetes was defined using HbA(1c) (HbA(1c) >= 6 . 5% or history of diabetes diagnosis or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs) compared with either FPG only or FPG-or-2hOGTT definitions (FPG >= 7 . 0 mmol/L or 2hOGTT >= 11 . 1 mmol/L or history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated diabetes prevalence, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights. We compared the prevalences of diabetes using different definitions graphically and by regression analyses. We calculated sensitivity and specificity of diabetes diagnosis based on HbA1c compared with diagnosis based on glucose among previously undiagnosed individuals (ie, excluding those with history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated sensitivity and specificity in each survey, and then pooled results using a random-effects model. We assessed the sources of heterogeneity of sensitivity by meta-regressions for study characteristics selected a priori. Findings Population prevalence of diabetes based on FPG- or-2hOGTT was correlated with prevalence based on FPG alone (r= 0 . 98), but was higher by 2-6 percentage points at different prevalence levels. Prevalence based on HbA(1c) was lower than prevalence based on FPG in 42 . 8% of age-sex-survey groups and higher in another 41 . 6%; in the other 15 . 6%, the two definitions provided similar prevalence estimates. The variation across studies in the relation between glucose-based and HbA(1c)-based prevalences was partly related to participants' age, followed by natural logarithm of per person gross domestic product, the year of survey, mean BMI, and whether the survey population was national, subnational, or from specific communities. Diabetes defined as HbA(1c) 6 . 5% or more had a pooled sensitivity of 52 . 8% (95% CI 51 . 3-54 . 3%) and a pooled specificity of 99 . 74% (99 . 71-99 . 78%) compared with FPG 7 . 0 mmol/L or more for diagnosing previously undiagnosed participants; sensitivity compared with diabetes defined based on FPG-or-2hOGTT was 30 . 5% (28 . 7-32 . 3%). None of the preselected study-level characteristics explained the heterogeneity in the sensitivity of HbA(1c) versus FPG. Interpretation Different biomarkers and definitions for diabetes can provide different estimates of population prevalence of diabetes, and differentially identify people without previous diagnosis as having diabetes. Using an HbA(1c)-based definition alone in health surveys will not identify a substantial proportion of previously undiagnosed people who would be considered as having diabetes using a glucose-based test.
16.	Goedecke, Julia H., et al. (author) Waist circumference thresholds predicting incident dysglycaemia and type 2 diabetes in Black African men and women 2022 In: Diabetes, obesity and metabolism. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1462-8902 .- 1463-1326. ; 24:5, s. 918-927 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Aims: To determine the waist circumference (WC) thresholds for the prediction of incident dysglycaemia and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Black South African (SA) men and women and to compare these to the advocated International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Europid thresholds.Materials and Methods: In this prospective study, Black SA men (n = 502) and women (n = 527) from the Middle-aged Sowetan Cohort study who had normal or impaired fasting glucose at baseline (2011-2015) were followed up until 2017 to 2018. Baseline measurements included anthropometry, blood pressure and fasting glucose, HDL cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations. At follow-up, glucose tolerance was assessed using an oral glucose tolerance test. The Youden index was used to determine the optimal threshold of WC to predict incident dysglycaemia and T2D.Results: In men, the optimal WC threshold was 96.8 cm for both dysglycaemia and T2D (sensitivity: 56% and 70%; specificity: 74% and 70%, respectively), and had higher specificity (P < 0.001) than the IDF threshold of 94 cm. In women, the optimal WC threshold for incident dysglycaemia was 91.8 cm (sensitivity 86%, specificity 37%) and for T2D it was 95.8 cm (sensitivity 85%, specificity 45%), which had lower sensitivity, but higher specificity to predict incident dysglycaemia and T2D than the IDF threshold of 80 cm (sensitivity: 97% and 100%; specificity: 12% and 11%, respectively)).Conclusions: We show for the first time using prospective cohort data from Africa that the IDF Europid WC thresholds are not appropriate for an African population, and show that African-specific WC thresholds perform better than the IDF Europid thresholds to predict incident dysglycaemia and T2D.
17.	Kengne, Andre Pascal, et al. (author) Non-invasive risk scores for prediction of type 2 diabetes (EPIC-InterAct): a validation of existing models. 2014 In: The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. - 2213-8595 .- 2213-8587. ; 2:1, s. 19-29 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract The comparative performance of existing models for prediction of type 2 diabetes across populations has not been investigated. We validated existing non-laboratory-based models and assessed variability in predictive performance in European populations.
18.	Kufe, Nyuyki Clement, et al. (author) Protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis of sex hormones and diabetes risk in ageing men and women of African ancestry 2019 In: BMJ Open. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2044-6055. ; 9:1 Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract Aim: To present the protocol of a systematic review and meta-analysis of the available evidence examining the association between sex hormones and type 2 diabetes risk in ageing men and women of African descent.Methods: We shall conduct a comprehensive search of published studies that examined the association between sex hormones and type 2 diabetes risk in men and women aged ≥40 years from 01/01/1980 to 31/03/2018 with no language restriction. Databases to be searched include: PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health, ISI Web of Science, Clinical Trial registries, Google Scholar and institutional websites such as the WHO, American Diabetes Association, International Diabetes Federation, World Diabetes Foundation, European Association for the Study of Diabetes, African Journal Online and ProQuest databases. This protocol is developed in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Protocols guidelines. Independent screening for eligible studies using defined criteria and data extraction, will be completed in duplicate. Discrepancies will be resolved by consensus or consultation with a third researcher. Risk of bias of included studies will be assessed by the appropriate Cochrane risk of bias tool. The overall association estimates will be pooled using appropriate meta-analytic techniques. Heterogeneity will be assessed using Cochrane Q statistic and the inconsistency index (I2). The random effects model will be used to calculate a pooled estimate.Ethics and dissemination: No ethics clearance is required as no primary data will be collected. The systematic review and meta-analysis are part of a PhD project at WITS University (Johannesburg, South Africa) and results will be presented at conferences and published in a peer-review journal. The results will guide future population specific interventions.
19.	Mazidi, Mohsen, 1989, et al. (author) Diet with greater inflammatory potential is associated with higher prevalence of fatty liver among US adults 2019 In: European Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0954-3007 .- 1476-5640. ; 73:12, s. 1653-1656 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract The prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is rising—caused, at least in part, by unhealthy lifestyles including poor dietary choices. We examined the link between the inflammatory potential of diet as measured by the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII®) and liver function tests [summarised by the fatty liver index (FLI)]. Of 20,643 US NHANES participants, 48.7% were men and the mean age was 47.3 years. Significant associations were apparent between increasing DII score and prevalent fatty liver. Individuals in the fourth DII quartile had nearly a six-fold higher likelihood of fatty liver [odds ratio (OR) = 5.97, 95% confidence interval: 4.44–8.02] compared with those in the first quartile. Moderation analysis indicated a significant impact of adiposity on the link between FLI and DII score (p < 0.001). This study provides further evidence of an association between the inflammatory potential of diet and fatty liver.© 2018, Springer Nature Limited.
20.	Mazidi, Mohsen, 1989, et al. (author) Dietary inflammatory index and cardiometabolic risk in US adults 2018 In: Atherosclerosis. - : Elsevier BV. - 1879-1484 .- 0021-9150. ; 276, s. 23-27 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background and aims: We investigated the association between Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII®) scores and cardio-metabolic risk factors singly and in combination as metabolic syndrome (MetS). Methods: We used data from participants selected from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Analyses were restricted to participants with data available on dietary intake, biochemical data, and anthropometric measurements from 2005 to 2012. Statistical analyses used the SPSS®Complex Samples v22.0 (IBM Corp, Armonk, NY) and accounted for the survey design and sample weights. Energy-adjusted-DII (E-DII®) expressed per 1000 kcal was calculated from 24-h dietary recalls. Of the 17,689 participants with evaluable data, 8607 (48.3%) were men. The mean age was 45.8 years in the overall sample, with men being slightly younger than women (44.9 vs. 46.5 years, p = 0.05). Results: In multivariable-adjusted regression models, the odds of MetS, its components, as well as obesity, and elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) increased across increasing quartiles of E-DII (p < 0.001). In age, sex, race, income-to-poverty ratio-adjusted models, these and other cardiovascular disease risk factors (triglycerides/high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio, apolipoprotein (B) and HbA1C) increased across quartiles of the E-DII (all p < 0.001), while HDL-C levels decreased (p < 0.001). Conclusions: This study suggests associations between MetS, its components, subclinical inflammation, and the DII. These results reinforce the view that diet plays an important role in the occurrence of cardiovascular diseases.
21.	Mazidi, Mohsen, 1989, et al. (author) Food Patterns are Associated with Likelihood of CKD in US Adults 2018 In: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322 .- 2045-2322. ; 8:1 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract We investigated the association between dietary patterns and prevalent chronic kidney diseases (CKD), in participants of the 2005-2012 US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) conducted between 2005 and 2012, who had measured data on dietary intake and kidney function. Analyse of covariance (ANCOVA) and logistic regression models were employed to account for the survey design and sample weights. A total of 21,649 eligible participants (634 with and 20,015 without prevalent CKD) were included in the final analysis. Three food patterns together explained 50.8% of the variance of the dietary nutrients consumption. The first food pattern was representative of a diet containing high levels of saturated and mono-unsaturated fatty acids; the second food pattern comprised vitamins and trace elements; and the third food pattern was mainly representative of polyunsaturated fatty acids. The odd of prevalent CKD decreased across increasing quarters of vitamins and trace elements, so that the top quarter was associated with a 53% (95%CI: 42-62%) lower odds of CKD in age, sex and race adjusted logistic regression models. These results suggest that vitamins and trace elements intake are associated with lower risk of prevalent CKD.
22.	Mazidi, Mohsen, 1989, et al. (author) Higher adherence to plant-based diets are associated with lower likelihood of fatty liver 2019 In: Clinical Nutrition. - : Elsevier BV. - 1532-1983 .- 0261-5614. ; 38:4, s. 1672-1677 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Some plant-based diets have been suggested to have a beneficial impact on liver disease risk. We examined the association of the overall plant-based diet (PDI), hypothesized healthful PDI (hPDI) and unhealthful PDI (uPDI) with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in US adults from the 2005–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES2005-2010). Analysis of covariance, linear and logistic regression models accounted for the survey design and sample weights. Overall, 18,345 participants were included, with a mean age of 47.9 years and comprising 51.7% women. Liver function tests including alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and fatty liver index (FLI) decreased across increasing thirds of PDI and hPDI (all p < 0.001), while adjusted mean of ALT, AST and FLI increased across increasing thirds of uPDI. Adjusted linear regressions showed that PDI and hPDI had negative and significant associations with ALT (PDI = β:-0.095, hPDI = β:-0.128), AST (PDI = β:-0.101, hPDI = β:-0.138) and FLI (PDI = β:-0.153, hPDI = β:-0.265), while uPDI had a positive and significant association with ALT (β: 0.103), AST (β: 0.112) and FLI (β: 0.241). After adjustment, participants in the upper third of PDI had 21% lower odd of NAFLD compared with those in the lowest third [odds ratio (OR): 0.79, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 0.74–0.82]. A similar trend was observed with hPDI; and the opposite across increasing thirds of uPDI. Our findings confirm that healthy plant-based diets are associated with lower NAFLD risk and more favorable liver function tests profile.
23.	Mazidi, Mohsen, 1989, et al. (author) Inverse association between serum antioxidant levels and inflammatory markers is moderated by adiposity: a report based on a large representative population sample of American adults 2018 In: British Journal of Nutrition. - 0007-1145 .- 1475-2662. ; 120:11, s. 1272-1278 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract We examined the association between plasma antioxidant levels and markers of inflammation, including C-reactive protein (CRP) and fibrinogen (FG) in US adults. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey participants examined between 2001 and 2002 were included, if data on CRP or FG levels. Serum vitamins A and E, two retinyl esters, and six carotenoids were measured using HPLC with photodiode array detection. Multivariable-adjusted linear regression analyses accounted for the survey design and sample weights. A total of 784 eligible participants were included; 47.5 % (n 372) were men. In multivariable linear regression models, serum alpha-carotene, trans-beta-carotene, cis-beta-carotene, beta-cryptoxanthin, combined lutein/zeaxanthin, trans-lycopene, retinyl palmitate, alpha-tocopherol, retinol and 25-hydroxy vitamin D were negatively associated with serum CRP (P3 mg/l, decreased with increasing levels of antioxidants (alpha-carotene, trans-beta-carotene, cis-beta-carotene, vitamins A and E). Furthermore, we found a moderate impact of adiposity on the link between antioxidants and CRP. Our results suggest that the lower the antioxidants levels, the higher the inflammatory burden, based on CRP and FG levels. Adiposity moderately affects this association. Furthermore, an inverse relationship between CVD risk and antioxidant levels was observed. This finding suggests that reduced levels of vitamins with antioxidant properties may predispose to increased CVD risk.
24.	Mazidi, Mohsen, 1989, et al. (author) Prevalence of childhood and adolescent overweight and obesity in Asian countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis 2018 In: Archives of Medical Science. - : Termedia Sp. z.o.o.. - 1734-1922 .- 1896-9151. ; 14:6, s. 1185-1203 Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract Introduction: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the prevalence of overweight and obesity in children (aged 5-12 years) and adolescents (aged 12-19 years) in Asian countries. Study design: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Material and methods: We comprehensively searched specialised databases for relevant studies conducted in Asian countries between January 1, 1999, and May 30, 2017. Random effects models (using the DerSimonian-Laird method) and generic inverse variance methods were used for quantitative data synthesis. Sensitivity analysis was conducted using the 'leave-one-out' method. Heterogeneity was quantitatively assessed using the I2 index. Systematic review registration: CRD42016033061. Results: Among 22,286 identified citations, 41 studies met the inclusion criteria with n = 71,998 and n = 353,513 for children and adolescents. The pooled prevalence (overall, boys and girls) was 5.8% (n = 4175), 7.0% (n = 2631) and 4.8% (n = 1651) for obesity in children aged 5-11 years; 8.6% (n = 30,402), 10.1% (n = 17,990) and 6.2% (n = 10,874) for obesity in adolescents age 12-19 years. For overweight in children the values for overall, boys and girls were 11.2% (n = 7900), 11.7% (n = 4280) and 10.9% (n = 3698) respectively; and for overweight in adolescents, 14.6% (n = 46,886), 15.9% (27,183), and 13.7% (20,574). These findings were robust in sensitivity analyses. In children and adolescents a higher percentage of boys than girls are obese (children = 7.0 vs. 4.8%, adolescents = 10.1 vs. 6.2%, p < 0.001, respectively). Furthermore, in children and adolescents a higher percentage of boys than girls are overweight (children = 11.7 vs. 10.9%, adolescents = 15.9 vs. 13.7%, p < 0.001, respectively). Conclusions: In view of the number of children who are overweight or obese, the associated detrimental effects on health, and the cost to health-care systems, implementation of programmes to monitor and prevent unhealthy weight gain in children and adolescents is needed throughout Asian countries.
25.	Mazidi, Mohsen, 1989, et al. (author) Serum lipophilic antioxidants levels are associated with leucocyte telomere length among US adults 2018 In: Lipids in Health and Disease. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-511X. ; 17:1 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: To examine the association between serum concentrations of antioxidant and telomere length (TL) in U.S adults. Methods: Participants of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) with data available on TL measures from 2001 to 2002 were included. Serum lipophilic antioxidants level was measured using high performance liquid chromatography with photodiode array detection. We used analysis of co-variance and multivariable-adjusted linear regression models, accounting for the survey design and sample weights. Results: Of the 5992 eligible participants, 47.5% (n = 2844) were men. The mean age was 46.9 years overall, 47.2 years in men and 46.6 in women (p = 0.071). In age, sex, race, education, marital status, adiposity, smoking, C-reactive protein adjusted linear regressions, antioxidant, serum α-carotene, trans-β-carotene, cis- β-carotene, β-cryptoxanthin and combined Lutein/zeaxanthin were positively and significantly associated with TL (all p < 0.001). Conclusions: Our findings support a possible positive association between serum concentrations of lipophylic antioxidant and TL. The implications of this association deserve further investigation.
26.	Mazidi, Mohsen, 1989, et al. (author) The Association of Red Meat Intake with Inflammation and Circulating Intermediate Biomarkers of Type 2 Diabetes Is Mediated by Central Adiposity 2021 In: British Journal of Nutrition. - 0007-1145 .- 1475-2662. ; 125:9, s. 1043-1050 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract © The Author(s) 2019. We explored the role of lipid accumulation products and visceral adiposity on the association between red meat consumption and markers of insulin resistance (IR) and inflammation in US adults. Data on red meat consumption, and health outcome measurements were extracted from the 2005-2010 US National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Overall 16,621 participants were included in the analysis (mean age = 47.1 years, 48.3% men). Analysis of co-variance and "conceptus causal mediation" models were applied, while accounting for survey design. In adjusted models, a lower red meat consumption was significantly associated with a cardio-protective profile of IR and inflammation. Body mass index (BMI) had significant mediation effects on the associations between red meat consumption and C-reactive protein (CRP), Apolipoprotein-B, fasting glucose (FBG), insulin, homeostatic model assessment (HOMA) IR and β-cell function, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), triglyceride to high density lipoprotein (TG:HDL) ratio and triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index (all p < 0.05). Both waist circumference and anthropometrically predicted visceral adipose tissue (apVAT) mediated the association between red meat consumption with CRP, FBG, HbA1c, TG: HDL ratio and TyG index (all p < 0.05). Our findings suggest that adiposity, particularly the accumulation of abdominal fat, accounts for a significant proportion of the associations between red meat consumption IR and inflammation.
27.	Mendham, Amy E., et al. (author) Targeted proteomics identifies potential biomarkers of dysglycaemia, beta cell function and insulin sensitivity in Black African men and women 2023 In: Diabetologia. - : Springer. - 0012-186X .- 1432-0428. ; 66, s. 174-189 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Aims/hypothesis: Using a targeted proteomics approach, we aimed to identify and validate circulating proteins associated with impaired glucose metabolism (IGM) and type 2 diabetes in a Black South African cohort. In addition, we assessed sex-specific associations between the validated proteins and pathophysiological pathways of type 2 diabetes.Methods: This cross-sectional study included Black South African men (n=380) and women (n=375) who were part of the Middle-Aged Soweto Cohort (MASC). Dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry was used to determine fat mass and visceral adipose tissue, and fasting venous blood samples were collected for analysis of glucose, insulin and C-peptide and for targeted proteomics, measuring a total of 184 pre-selected protein biomarkers. An OGTT was performed on participants without diabetes, and peripheral insulin sensitivity (Matsuda index), HOMA-IR, basal insulin clearance, insulin secretion (C-peptide index) and beta cell function (disposition index) were estimated. Participants were classified as having normal glucose tolerance (NGT; n=546), IGM (n=116) or type 2 diabetes (n=93). Proteins associated with dysglycaemia (IGM or type 2 diabetes) in the MASC were validated in the Swedish EpiHealth cohort (NGT, n=1706; impaired fasting glucose, n=550; type 2 diabetes, n=210).Results: We identified 73 proteins associated with dysglycaemia in the MASC, of which 34 were validated in the EpiHealth cohort. Among these validated proteins, 11 were associated with various measures of insulin dynamics, with the largest number of proteins being associated with HOMA-IR. In sex-specific analyses, IGF-binding protein 2 (IGFBP2) was associated with lower HOMA-IR in women (coefficient –0.35; 95% CI –0.44, –0.25) and men (coefficient –0.09; 95% CI –0.15, –0.03). Metalloproteinase inhibitor 4 (TIMP4) was associated with higher insulin secretion (coefficient 0.05; 95% CI 0.001, 0.11; p for interaction=0.025) and beta cell function (coefficient 0.06; 95% CI 0.02, 0.09; p for interaction=0.013) in women only. In contrast, a stronger positive association between IGFBP2 and insulin sensitivity determined using an OGTT (coefficient 0.38; 95% CI 0.27, 0.49) was observed in men (p for interaction=0.004). A posteriori analysis showed that the associations between TIMP4 and insulin dynamics were not mediated by adiposity. In contrast, most of the associations between IGFBP2 and insulin dynamics, except for insulin secretion, were mediated by either fat mass index or visceral adipose tissue in men and women. Fat mass index was the strongest mediator between IGFBP2 and insulin sensitivity (total effect mediated 40.7%; 95% CI 37.0, 43.6) and IGFBP2 and HOMA-IR (total effect mediated 39.1%; 95% CI 31.1, 43.5) in men.Conclusions/interpretation: We validated 34 proteins that were associated with type 2 diabetes, of which 11 were associated with measures of type 2 diabetes pathophysiology such as peripheral insulin sensitivity and beta cell function. This study highlights biomarkers that are similar between cohorts of different ancestry, with different lifestyles and sociodemographic profiles. The African-specific biomarkers identified require validation in African cohorts to identify risk markers and increase our understanding of the pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes in African populations.
28.	Seipone, Ikanyeng D., et al. (author) SHBG, free testosterone, and type 2 diabetes risk in middle-aged African men : a longitudinal study 2024 In: Journal of the Endocrine Society. - : Endocrine Society. - 2472-1972. ; 8:8 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Objectives: To investigate longitudinal changes in SHBG and free testosterone (free T) levels among Black middle-aged African men, with and without coexistent HIV, and explore associations with incident dysglycaemia and measures of glucose metabolism.Design: This longitudinal study enrolled 407 Black South African middle-aged men, comprising primarily 322 men living without HIV (MLWOH) and 85 men living with HIV (MLWH), with normal fasting glucose at enrollment. Follow-up assessments were conducted after 3.1 ± 1.5 years.Methods: At baseline and follow-up, SHBG, albumin, and total testosterone were measured and free T was calculated. An oral glucose tolerance test at follow-up determined dysglycaemia (impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, type 2 diabetes) and glucose metabolism parameters including insulin sensitivity (Matsuda index), insulin resistance (homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance), and beta(β)cell function (disposition index). The primary analysis focussed on MLWOH, with a subanalysis on MLWH to explore whether associations in MLWOH differed from MLWH.Results: The prevalence of dysglycaemia at follow-up was 17% (n = 55) in MLWOH. Higher baseline SHBG was associated with a lower risk of incident dysglycaemia (odds ratio 0.966; 95% confidence interval 0.945-0.987) and positively associated with insulin sensitivity (β = 0.124, P < .001) and β-cell function (β = 0.194, P = .001) at follow-up. Free T did not predict dysglycaemia. In MLWH, dysglycaemia prevalence at follow-up was 12% (n = 10). Neither baseline SHBG nor free T were associated with incident dysglycaemia and glucose metabolism parameters in MLWH.Conclusion: SHBG levels predict the development of dysglycaemia in middle-aged African men but do not exhibit the same predictive value in MLWH.
29.	Wang, Haidong, et al. (author) Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 2014 In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9947, s. 957-979 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
30.	Zhou, Bin, et al. (author) Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: A pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants 2016 In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 387:10027, s. 1513-1530 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are aff ecting the number of adults with diabetes.Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4372000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-17.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.Interpretation: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults aff ected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.

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