1. |
- Hay, S. I., et al.
(author)
-
Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
-
In: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1260-1344
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE difered from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs ofset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the fve lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. Interpretation: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs ofset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention eforts, and development assistance for health, including fnancial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
|
|
2. |
- Barber, R. M., et al.
(author)
-
Healthcare access and quality index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : A novel analysis from the global burden of disease study 2015
- 2017
-
In: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10091, s. 231-266
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
|
|
3. |
- Thomas, HS, et al.
(author)
-
- 2019
-
swepub:Mat__t
|
|
4. |
|
|
5. |
|
|
6. |
- Drake, TM, et al.
(author)
-
Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in children: an international, multicentre, prospective cohort study
- 2020
-
In: BMJ global health. - : BMJ. - 2059-7908. ; 5:12
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common healthcare-associated infections (HAIs). However, there is a lack of data available about SSI in children worldwide, especially from low-income and middle-income countries. This study aimed to estimate the incidence of SSI in children and associations between SSI and morbidity across human development settings.MethodsA multicentre, international, prospective, validated cohort study of children aged under 16 years undergoing clean-contaminated, contaminated or dirty gastrointestinal surgery. Any hospital in the world providing paediatric surgery was eligible to contribute data between January and July 2016. The primary outcome was the incidence of SSI by 30 days. Relationships between explanatory variables and SSI were examined using multilevel logistic regression. Countries were stratified into high development, middle development and low development groups using the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI).ResultsOf 1159 children across 181 hospitals in 51 countries, 523 (45·1%) children were from high HDI, 397 (34·2%) from middle HDI and 239 (20·6%) from low HDI countries. The 30-day SSI rate was 6.3% (33/523) in high HDI, 12·8% (51/397) in middle HDI and 24·7% (59/239) in low HDI countries. SSI was associated with higher incidence of 30-day mortality, intervention, organ-space infection and other HAIs, with the highest rates seen in low HDI countries. Median length of stay in patients who had an SSI was longer (7.0 days), compared with 3.0 days in patients who did not have an SSI. Use of laparoscopy was associated with significantly lower SSI rates, even after accounting for HDI.ConclusionThe odds of SSI in children is nearly four times greater in low HDI compared with high HDI countries. Policies to reduce SSI should be prioritised as part of the wider global agenda.
|
|
7. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
-
Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
-
In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
|
|
8. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(author)
-
- 2020
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)
|
|
9. |
- Khalil, I., et al.
(author)
-
Transport injuries and deaths in the Eastern Mediterranean Region : findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study
- 2018
-
In: International Journal of Public Health. - : Springer International Publishing. - 1661-8556 .- 1661-8564. ; 63, s. 187-198
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objectives: Transport injuries (TI) are ranked as one of the leading causes of death, disability, and property loss worldwide. This paper provides an overview of the burden of TI in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) by age and sex from 1990 to 2015. Methods: Transport injuries mortality in the EMR was estimated using the Global Burden of Disease mortality database, with corrections for ill-defined causes of death, using the cause of death ensemble modeling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient datasets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories. Results: In 2015, 152,855 (95% uncertainty interval: 137,900â168,100) people died from TI in the EMR countries. Between 1990 and 2015, the years of life lost (YLL) rate per 100,000 due to TI decreased by 15.5%, while the years lived with disability (YLD) rate decreased by 10%, and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate decreased by 16%. Conclusions: Although the burden of TI mortality and morbidity decreased over the last two decades, there is still a considerable burden that needs to be addressed by increasing awareness, enforcing laws, and improving road conditions. © 2017, The Author(s).
|
|
10. |
|
|
11. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(author)
-
Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
-
In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
|
|
12. |
|
|
13. |
|
|
14. |
- Dieleman, J., et al.
(author)
-
Evolution and patterns of global health financing 1995-2014 : Development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries
- 2017
-
In: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 389:10083, s. 1981-2004
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: An adequate amount of prepaid resources for health is important to ensure access to health services and for the pursuit of universal health coverage. Previous studies on global health financing have described the relationship between economic development and health financing. In this study, we further explore global health financing trends and examine how the sources of funds used, types of services purchased, and development assistance for health disbursed change with economic development. We also identify countries that deviate from the trends. Methods: We estimated national health spending by type of care and by source, including development assistance for health, based on a diverse set of data including programme reports, budget data, national estimates, and 964 National Health Accounts. These data represent health spending for 184 countries from 1995 through 2014. We converted these data into a common inflation-adjusted and purchasing power-adjusted currency, and used non-linear regression methods to model the relationship between health financing, time, and economic development. Findings: Between 1995 and 2014, economic development was positively associated with total health spending and a shift away from a reliance on development assistance and out-of-pocket (OOP) towards government spending. The largest absolute increase in spending was in high-income countries, which increased to purchasing power-adjusted $5221 per capita based on an annual growth rate of 3.0%. The largest health spending growth rates were in upper-middle-income (5.9) and lower-middle-income groups (5.0), which both increased spending at more than 5% per year, and spent $914 and $267 per capita in 2014, respectively. Spending in low-income countries grew nearly as fast, at 4.6%, and health spending increased from $51 to $120 per capita. In 2014, 59.2% of all health spending was financed by the government, although in low-income and lower-middle-income countries, 29.1% and 58.0% of spending was OOP spending and 35.7% and 3.0% of spending was development assistance. Recent growth in development assistance for health has been tepid; between 2010 and 2016, it grew annually at 1.8%, and reached US$37.6 billion in 2016. Nonetheless, there is a great deal of variation revolving around these averages. 29 countries spend at least 50% more than expected per capita, based on their level of economic development alone, whereas 11 countries spend less than 50% their expected amount. Interpretation: Health spending remains disparate, with low-income and lower-middle-income countries increasing spending in absolute terms the least, and relying heavily on OOP spending and development assistance. Moreover, tremendous variation shows that neither time nor economic development guarantee adequate prepaid health resources, which are vital for the pursuit of universal health coverage. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
|
|
15. |
- Dieleman, J. L., et al.
(author)
-
Future and potential spending on health 2015-40 : Development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries
- 2017
-
In: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 389:10083, s. 2005-2030
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods: We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings: We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to $24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and $195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation: Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential. © The Author(s).
|
|
16. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
-
Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
-
In: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
|
|
17. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(author)
-
Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
|
|
18. |
- Khalil, Ibrahim, et al.
(author)
-
Burden of Diarrhea in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013 : Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2016
-
In: American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. - : American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. - 1476-1645 .- 0002-9637. ; 95:6, s. 1319-1329
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Diarrheal diseases (DD) are leading causes of disease burden, death, and disability, especially in children in low-income settings. DD can also impact a child's potential livelihood through stunted physical growth, cognitive impairment, and other sequelae. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study, we estimated DD burden, and the burden attributable to specific risk factors and particular etiologies, in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2013. For both sexes and all ages, we calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which are the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. We estimate that over 125,000 deaths (3.6% of total deaths) were due to DD in the EMR in 2013, with a greater burden of DD in low- and middle-income countries. Diarrhea deaths per 100,000 children under 5 years of age ranged from one (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 0-1) in Bahrain and Oman to 471 (95% UI = 245-763) in Somalia. The pattern for diarrhea DALYs among those under 5 years of age closely followed that for diarrheal deaths. DALYs per 100,000 ranged from 739 (95% UI = 520-989) in Syria to 40,869 (95% UI = 21,540-65,823) in Somalia. Our results highlighted a highly inequitable burden of DD in EMR, mainly driven by the lack of access to proper resources such as water and sanitation. Our findings will guide preventive and treatment interventions which are based on evidence and which follow the ultimate goal of reducing the DD burden.
|
|
19. |
- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(author)
-
Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2021
-
In: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 20:10, s. 795-820
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings In 2019, there were 12.2 million (95% UI 11.0-13.6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93.2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6.55 million (6.00-7.02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11.6% [10.8-12.2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5.7% [5.1-6.2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70.0% (67.0-73.0), prevalent strokes increased by 85.0% (83.0-88.0), deaths from stroke increased by 43.0% (31.0-55.0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32.0% (22.0-42.0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17.0% (15.0-18.0), mortality decreased by 36.0% (31.0-42.0), prevalence decreased by 6.0% (5.0-7.0), and DALYs decreased by 36.0% (31.0-42.0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22.0% (21.0-24.0) and incidence rates increased by 15.0% (12.0-18.0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3.6 (3.5-3.8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3.7 (3.5-3.9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62.4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7.63 million [6.57-8.96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27.9% (3.41 million [2.97-3.91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9.7% (1.18 million [1.01-1.39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79.6 million [67.7-90.8] DALYs or 55.5% [48.2-62.0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34.9 million [22.3-48.6] DALYs or 24.3% [15.7-33.2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28.9 million [19.8-41.5] DALYs or 20.2% [13.8-29.1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28.7 million [23.4-33.4] DALYs or 20.1% [16.6-23.0]), and smoking (25.3 million [22.6-28.2] DALYs or 17.6% [16.4-19.0]). Interpretation The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.
|
|
20. |
- Reitsma, Marissa B., et al.
(author)
-
Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2017
-
In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 389:10082, s. 1885-1906
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.2-25.7) for men and 5.4% (5.1-5.7) for women, representing 28.4% (25.8-31.1) and 34.4% (29.4-38.6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11.5% of global deaths (6.4 million [95% UI 5.7-7.0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52.2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.
|
|
21. |
- Feigin, Valery L, et al.
(author)
-
Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016.
- 2018
-
In: The New England journal of medicine. - 1533-4406 .- 0028-4793. ; 379:25, s. 2429-2437
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases.We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate.The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation.In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).
|
|
22. |
- Mokdad, A. H., et al.
(author)
-
Intentional injuries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990â2015 : findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study
- 2018
-
In: International Journal of Public Health. - : Springer International Publishing. - 1661-8556 .- 1661-8564. ; 63, s. 39-46
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objectives: We used GBD 2015 findings to measure the burden of intentional injuries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2015. Methods: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study defines intentional injuries as a combination of self-harm (including suicide), interpersonal violence, collective violence (war), and legal intervention. We estimated number of deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for each type of intentional injuries. Results: In 2015, 28,695 individuals (95% UI: 25,474â37,832) died from self-harm, 35,626 (95% UI: 20,947â41,857) from interpersonal violence, and 143,858 (95% UI: 63,554â223,092) from collective violence and legal interventions. In 2015, collective violence and legal intervention was the fifth-leading cause of DALYs in the EMR and the leading cause in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya; they account for 49.7% of total DALYs in Syria. Conclusions: Our findings call for increased efforts to stabilize the region and assist in rebuilding the health systems, as well as increasing transparency and employing preventive strategies to reduce self-harm and interpersonal injuries. © 2017, The Author(s).
|
|
23. |
- Anderson, Christopher D., et al.
(author)
-
Common Variants Within Oxidative Phosphorylation Genes Influence Risk of Ischemic Stroke and Intracerebral Hemorrhage
- 2013
-
In: Stroke: a journal of cerebral circulation. - 1524-4628. ; 44:3, s. 612-619
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background and Purpose-Previous studies demonstrated association between mitochondrial DNA variants and ischemic stroke (IS). We investigated whether variants within a larger set of oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) genes encoded by both autosomal and mitochondrial DNA were associated with risk of IS and, based on our results, extended our investigation to intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Methods-This association study used a discovery cohort of 1643 individuals, a validation cohort of 2432 individuals for IS, and an extension cohort of 1476 individuals for ICH. Gene-set enrichment analysis was performed on all structural OXPHOS genes, as well as genes contributing to individual respiratory complexes. Gene-sets passing gene-set enrichment analysis were tested by constructing genetic scores using common variants residing within each gene. Associations between each variant and IS that emerged in the discovery cohort were examined in validation and extension cohorts. Results-IS was associated with genetic risk scores in OXPHOS as a whole (odds ratio [OR], 1.17; P=0.008) and complex I (OR, 1.06; P=0.050). Among IS subtypes, small vessel stroke showed association with OXPHOS (OR, 1.16; P=0.007), complex I (OR, 1.13; P=0.027), and complex IV (OR, 1.14; P=0.018). To further explore this small vessel association, we extended our analysis to ICH, revealing association between deep hemispheric ICH and complex IV (OR, 1.08; P=0.008). Conclusions-This pathway analysis demonstrates association between common genetic variants within OXPHOS genes and stroke. The associations for small vessel stroke and deep ICH suggest that genetic variation in OXPHOS influences small vessel pathobiology. Further studies are needed to identify culprit genetic variants and assess their functional consequences. (Stroke. 2013;44:612-619.)
|
|
24. |
- Falcone, Guido J., et al.
(author)
-
Genetically Elevated LDL Associates with Lower Risk of Intracerebral Hemorrhage
- 2020
-
In: Annals of Neurology. - : Wiley. - 0364-5134 .- 1531-8249. ; 88:1, s. 56-66
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective: Observational studies point to an inverse correlation between low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels and risk of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), but it remains unclear whether this association is causal. We tested the hypothesis that genetically elevated LDL is associated with reduced risk of ICH. Methods: We constructed one polygenic risk score (PRS) per lipid trait (total cholesterol, LDL, high-density lipoprotein [HDL], and triglycerides) using independent genomewide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for each trait. We used data from 316,428 individuals enrolled in the UK Biobank to estimate the effect of each PRS on its corresponding trait, and data from 1,286 ICH cases and 1,261 matched controls to estimate the effect of each PRS on ICH risk. We used these estimates to conduct Mendelian Randomization (MR) analyses. Results: We identified 410, 339, 393, and 317 lipid-related SNPs for total cholesterol, LDL, HDL, and triglycerides, respectively. All four PRSs were strongly associated with their corresponding trait (all p < 1.00 × 10-100). While one SD increase in the PRSs for total cholesterol (odds ratio [OR] = 0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.85–0.99; p = 0.03) and LDL cholesterol (OR = 0.88; 95% CI = 0.81–0.95; p = 0.002) were inversely associated with ICH risk, no significant associations were found for HDL and triglycerides (both p > 0.05). MR analyses indicated that 1mmol/L (38.67mg/dL) increase of genetically instrumented total and LDL cholesterol were associated with 23% (OR = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.65–0.98; p = 0.03) and 41% lower risks of ICH (OR = 0.59; 95% CI = 0.42–0.82; p = 0.002), respectively. Interpretation: Genetically elevated LDL levels were associated with lower risk of ICH, providing support for a potential causal role of LDL cholesterol in ICH. ANN NEUROL 2020.
|
|
25. |
- Kim, Min Seo, et al.
(author)
-
Global burden of peripheral artery disease and its risk factors, 1990-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2023
-
In: The Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier. - 2214-109X. ; 11:10, s. E1553-E1565
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Peripheral artery disease is a growing public health problem. We aimed to estimate the global disease burden of peripheral artery disease, its risk factors, and temporospatial trends to inform policy and public measures.Methods: Data on peripheral artery disease were modelled using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database. Prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality estimates of peripheral artery disease were extracted from GBD 2019. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rate of peripheral artery disease attributed to modifiable risk factors were also assessed.Findings: In 2019, the number of people aged 40 years and older with peripheral artery disease was 113 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99 center dot 2-128 center dot 4), with a global prevalence of 1 center dot 52% (95% UI 1 center dot 33-1 center dot 72), of which 42 center dot 6% was in countries with low to middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI). The global prevalence of peripheral artery disease was higher in older people, (14 center dot 91% [12 center dot 41-17 center dot 87] in those aged 80-84 years), and was generally higher in females than in males. Globally, the total number of DALYs attributable to modifiable risk factors in 2019 accounted for 69 center dot 4% (64 center dot 2-74 center dot 3) of total peripheral artery disease DALYs. The prevalence of peripheral artery disease was highest in countries with high SDI and lowest in countries with low SDI, whereas DALY and mortality rates showed U-shaped curves, with the highest burden in the high and low SDI quintiles.Interpretation: The total number of people with peripheral artery disease has increased globally from 1990 to 2019. Despite the lower prevalence of peripheral artery disease in males and low-income countries, these groups showed similar DALY rates to females and higher-income countries, highlighting disproportionate burden in these groups. Modifiable risk factors were responsible for around 70% of the global peripheral artery disease burden. Public measures could mitigate the burden of peripheral artery disease by modifying risk factors.
|
|
26. |
- Micah, Angela E., et al.
(author)
-
Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19 : a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050
- 2021
-
In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 398:10308, s. 1317-1343
-
Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. Methods We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. Findings In 2019, health spending globally reached $8. 8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8.7-8.8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40.4 billion (0.5%, 95% UI 0.5-0.5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24.6% (UI 24.0-25.1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54.8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13.7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12.3 billion was newly committed and $1.4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3.1 billion (22.4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2.4 billion (17.9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714.4 million (7.7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34.3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. Interpretation Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
|
|
27. |
- Mokdad, Ali H., et al.
(author)
-
Adolescent health in the Eastern Mediterranean Region : findings from the global burden of disease 2015 study
- 2018
-
In: International Journal of Public Health. - : SPRINGER BASEL AG. - 1661-8556 .- 1661-8564. ; 63, s. 79-96
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The 22 countries of the East Mediterranean Region (EMR) have large populations of adolescents aged 10-24 years. These adolescents are central to assuring the health, development, and peace of this region. We described their health needs. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we report the leading causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents in the EMR from 1990 to 2015. We also report the prevalence of key health risk behaviors and determinants. Communicable diseases and the health consequences of natural disasters reduced substantially between 1990 and 2015. However, these gains have largely been offset by the health impacts of war and the emergence of non-communicable diseases (including mental health disorders), unintentional injury, and self-harm. Tobacco smoking and high body mass were common health risks amongst adolescents. Additionally, many EMR countries had high rates of adolescent pregnancy and unmet need for contraception. Even with the return of peace and security, adolescents will have a persisting poor health profile that will pose a barrier to socioeconomic growth and development of the EMR.
|
|
28. |
- Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, et al.
(author)
-
Burden of musculoskeletal disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013 : findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2017
-
In: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ. - 1468-2060 .- 0003-4967. ; 76, s. 1365-1373
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: We used findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 to report the burden of musculoskeletal disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR).METHODS: The burden of musculoskeletal disorders was calculated for the EMR's 22 countries between 1990 and 2013. A systematic analysis was performed on mortality and morbidity data to estimate prevalence, death, years of live lost, years lived with disability and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).RESULTS: For musculoskeletal disorders, the crude DALYs rate per 100 000 increased from 1297.1 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 924.3-1703.4) in 1990 to 1606.0 (95% UI 1141.2-2130.4) in 2013. During 1990-2013, the total DALYs of musculoskeletal disorders increased by 105.2% in the EMR compared with a 58.0% increase in the rest of the world. The burden of musculoskeletal disorders as a proportion of total DALYs increased from 2.4% (95% UI 1.7-3.0) in 1990 to 4.7% (95% UI 3.6-5.8) in 2013. The range of point prevalence (per 1000) among the EMR countries was 28.2-136.0 for low back pain, 27.3-49.7 for neck pain, 9.7-37.3 for osteoarthritis (OA), 0.6-2.2 for rheumatoid arthritis and 0.1-0.8 for gout. Low back pain and neck pain had the highest burden in EMR countries.CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a high burden of musculoskeletal disorders, with a faster increase in EMR compared with the rest of the world. The reasons for this faster increase need to be explored. Our findings call for incorporating prevention and control programmes that should include improving health data, addressing risk factors, providing evidence-based care and community programmes to increase awareness.
|
|
29. |
- Rannikmaee, Kristiina, et al.
(author)
-
Common variation in COL4A1/COL4A2 is associated with sporadic cerebral small vessel disease
- 2015
-
In: Neurology. - 1526-632X. ; 84:9, s. 918-926
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objectives:We hypothesized that common variants in the collagen genes COL4A1/COL4A2 are associated with sporadic forms of cerebral small vessel disease.Methods:We conducted meta-analyses of existing genotype data among individuals of European ancestry to determine associations of 1,070 common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the COL4A1/COL4A2 genomic region with the following: intracerebral hemorrhage and its subtypes (deep, lobar) (1,545 cases, 1,485 controls); ischemic stroke and its subtypes (cardioembolic, large vessel disease, lacunar) (12,389 cases, 62,004 controls); and white matter hyperintensities (2,733 individuals with ischemic stroke and 9,361 from population-based cohorts with brain MRI data). We calculated a statistical significance threshold that accounted for multiple testing and linkage disequilibrium between SNPs (p < 0.000084).Results:Three intronic SNPs in COL4A2 were significantly associated with deep intracerebral hemorrhage (lead SNP odds ratio [OR] 1.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14-1.46, p = 0.00003; r(2) > 0.9 between SNPs). Although SNPs associated with deep intracerebral hemorrhage did not reach our significance threshold for association with lacunar ischemic stroke (lead SNP OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.03-1.18, p = 0.0073), and with white matter hyperintensity volume in symptomatic ischemic stroke patients (lead SNP OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01-1.13, p = 0.016), the direction of association was the same. There was no convincing evidence of association with white matter hyperintensities in population-based studies or with non-small vessel disease cerebrovascular phenotypes.Conclusions:Our results indicate an association between common variation in the COL4A2 gene and symptomatic small vessel disease, particularly deep intracerebral hemorrhage. These findings merit replication studies, including in ethnic groups of non-European ancestry.
|
|
30. |
- Sepanlou, Sadaf G., et al.
(author)
-
The global, regional, and national burden of cirrhosis by cause in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2020
-
In: The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - 2468-1253. ; 5:3, s. 245-266
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases (collectively referred to as cirrhosis in this paper) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally, although the burden and underlying causes differ across locations and demographic groups. We report on results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 on the burden of cirrhosis and its trends since 1990, by cause, sex, and age, for 195 countries and territories. Methods We used data from vital registrations, vital registration samples, and verbal autopsies to estimate mortality. We modelled prevalence of total, compensated, and decompensated cirrhosis on the basis of hospital and claims data. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability. Estimates are presented as numbers and age-standardised or age-specific rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). All estimates are presented for five causes of cirrhosis: hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol-related liver disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and other causes. We compared mortality, prevalence, and DALY estimates with those expected according to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as a proxy for the development status of regions and countries. Findings In 2017, cirrhosis caused more than 1.32 million (95% UI 1.27-1.45) deaths (440000 [416 000-518 000; 33.3%] in females and 883 000 [838 000-967 000; 66.7%] in males) globally, compared with less than 899 000 (829 000-948 000) deaths in 1990. Deaths due to cirrhosis constituted 2.4% (2.3-2.6) of total deaths globally in 2017 compared with 1.9% (1.8-2.0) in 1990. Despite an increase in the number of deaths, the age-standardised death rate decreased from 21.0 (19.2-22.3) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 16.5 (15.8-18-1) per 100 000 population in 2017. Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardised death rate among GBD super-regions for all years of the study period (32.2 [25.8-38.6] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017), and the high-income super-region had the lowest (10.1 [9.8-10-5] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017). The age-standardised death rate decreased or remained constant from 1990 to 2017 in all GBD regions except eastern Europe and central Asia, where the age-standardised death rate increased, primarily due to increases in alcohol-related liver disease prevalence. At the national level, the age-standardised death rate of cirrhosis was lowest in Singapore in 2017 (3.7 [3.3-4.0] per 100 000 in 2017) and highest in Egypt in all years since 1990 (103.3 [64.4-133.4] per 100 000 in 2017). There were 10.6 million (10.3-10.9) prevalent cases of decompensated cirrhosis and 112 million (107-119) prevalent cases of compensated cirrhosis globally in 2017. There was a significant increase in age-standardised prevalence rate of decompensated cirrhosis between 1990 and 2017. Cirrhosis caused by NASH had a steady age-standardised death rate throughout the study period, whereas the other four causes showed declines in age-standardised death rate. The age-standardised prevalence of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH increased more than for any other cause of cirrhosis (by 33.2% for compensated cirrhosis and 54.8% for decompensated cirrhosis) over the study period. From 1990 to 2017, the number of prevalent cases snore than doubled for compensated cirrhosis due to NASH and more than tripled for decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH. In 2017, age-standardised death and DALY rates were lower among countries and territories with higher SDI. Interpretation Cirrhosis imposes a substantial health burden on many countries and this burden has increased at the global level since 1990, partly due to population growth and ageing. Although the age-standardised death and DALY rates of cirrhosis decreased from 1990 to 2017, numbers of deaths and DALYs and the proportion of all global deaths due to cirrhosis increased. Despite the availability of effective interventions for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis B and C, they were still the main causes of cirrhosis burden worldwide, particularly in low-income countries. The impact of hepatitis B and C is expected to be attenuated and overtaken by that of NASH in the near future. Cost-effective interventions are required to continue the prevention and treatment of viral hepatitis, and to achieve early diagnosis and prevention of cirrhosis due to alcohol-related liver disease and NASH.
|
|
31. |
- Abbassi, Fariba, et al.
(author)
-
Novel Benchmark Values for Redo Liver Transplantation Does the Outcome Justify the Effort?
- 2022
-
In: Annals of Surgery. - : Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. - 0003-4932 .- 1528-1140. ; 276:5, s. 860-867
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective: To define benchmark cutoffs for redo liver transplantation (redo-LT). Background: In the era of organ shortage, redo-LT is frequently discussed in terms of expected poor outcome and wasteful resources. However, there is a lack of benchmark data to reliably evaluate outcomes after redo-LT. Methods: We collected data on redo-LT between January 2010 and December 2018 from 22 high-volume transplant centers. Benchmark cases were defined as recipients with model of end stage liver disease (MELD) score <= 25, absence of portal vein thrombosis, no mechanical ventilation at the time of surgery, receiving a graft from a donor after brain death. Also, high-urgent priority and early redo-LT including those for primary nonfunction (PNF) or hepatic artery thrombosis were excluded. Benchmark cutoffs were derived from the 75th percentile of the medians of all benchmark centers. Results: Of 1110 redo-LT, 373 (34%) cases qualified as benchmark cases. Among these cases, the rate of postoperative complications until discharge was 76%, and increased up to 87% at 1-year, respectively. One-year overall survival rate was excellent with 90%. Benchmark cutoffs included Comprehensive Complication Index CCI (R) at 1-year of <= 72, and in-hospital and 1-year mortality rates of <= 13% and <= 15%, respectively. In contrast, patients who received a redo-LT for PNF showed worse outcomes with some values dramatically outside the redoLT benchmarks. Conclusion: This study shows that redo-LT achieves good outcome when looking at benchmark scenarios. However, this figure changes in high-risk redo-LT, as for example in PNF. This analysis objectifies for the first-time results and efforts for redo-LT and can serve as a basis for discussion about the use of scarce resources.
|
|
32. |
- Aimo, Alberto, et al.
(author)
-
Cardiac remodelling - Part 2: Clinical, imaging and laboratory findings. A review from the Study Group on Biomarkers of the Heart Failure Association of the European Society of Cardiology
- 2022
-
In: European Journal of Heart Failure. - : WILEY. - 1388-9842 .- 1879-0844. ; 24:6, s. 944-958
-
Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In patients with heart failure, the beneficial effects of drug and device therapies counteract to some extent ongoing cardiac damage. According to the net balance between these two factors, cardiac geometry and function may improve (reverse remodelling, RR) and even completely normalize (remission), or vice versa progressively deteriorate (adverse remodelling, AR). RR or remission predict a better prognosis, while AR has been associated with worsening clinical status and outcomes. The remodelling process ultimately involves all cardiac chambers, but has been traditionally evaluated in terms of left ventricular volumes and ejection fraction. This is the second part of a review paper by the Study Group on Biomarkers of the Heart Failure Association of the European Society of Cardiology dedicated to ventricular remodelling. This document examines the proposed criteria to diagnose RR and AR, their prevalence and prognostic value, and the variables predicting remodelling in patients managed according to current guidelines. Much attention will be devoted to RR in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction because most studies on cardiac remodelling focused on this setting.
|
|
33. |
- Biffi, Alessandro, et al.
(author)
-
APOE genotype and extent of bleeding and outcome in lobar intracerebral haemorrhage: a genetic association study
- 2011
-
In: Lancet Neurology. - 1474-4465. ; 10:8, s. 702-709
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Carriers of APOE epsilon 2 and epsilon 4 have an increased risk of intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) in lobar regions, presumably because of the effects of these gene variants on risk of cerebral amyloid angiopathy. We aimed to assess whether these variants also associate with severity of ICH, in terms of haematoma volume at presentation and subsequent outcome. Methods We investigated the association of APOE epsilon 2 and epsilon 4 with ICH volume and outcomes in patients with primary ICH in three phases: a discovery phase of 865 individuals of European ancestry from the Genetics of Cerebral Hemorrhage on Anticoagulation study, and replication phases of 946 Europeans (replication 1) and 214 African-Americans (replication 2) from an additional six studies. We also assessed the association of APOE variants with ICH volume and outcomes in meta-analyses of results from all three phases, and the association of APOE epsilon 4 with mortality in a further meta-analysis including data from previous reports. Admission ICH volume was quantified on CT scan. We assessed functional outcome (modified Rankin scale score 3-6) and mortality at 90 days. We used linear regression to establish the effect of genotype on haematoma volume and logistic regression to assess the effect on outcome from ICH. Findings For patients with lobar ICH, carriers of the APOE epsilon 2 allele had larger ICH volumes than did non-carriers in the discovery phase (p=2. 5x10(-5)), in both replication phases (p=0.008 in Europeans and p=0.016 in African-Americans), and in the meta-analysis (p=3.2x10(-8)). In the meta-analysis, each copy of APOE epsilon 2 increased haematoma size by a mean of 5.3 mL (95% CI 4.7-5.9; p=0.004). Carriers of APOE epsilon 2 had increased mortality (odds ratio [OR] 1.50, 95% CI 1.23-1.82; p=2.45x10(-5)) and poorer functional outcomes (modified Rankin scale score 3-6; 1-52, 1.25-1.85; p=1.74x10(-5)) compared with non-carriers after lobar ICH. APOE epsilon 4 was not associated with lobar ICH volume, functional outcome, or mortality in the discovery phase, replication phases, or meta-analysis of these three phases; in our further meta-analysis of 2194 patients, this variant did not increase risk of mortality (1.08,0.86-1.36; p=0.52). APOE allele variants were not associated with deep ICH volume, functional outcome, or mortality. Interpretation Vasculopathic changes associated with the APOE epsilon 2 allele might have a role in the severity and clinical course of lobar ICH. Screening of patients who have ICH to identify the epsilon 2 variant might allow identification of those at increased risk of mortality and poor functional outcomes.
|
|
34. |
|
|
35. |
- Biffi, Alessandro, et al.
(author)
-
Variants at APOE Influence Risk of Deep and Lobar Intracerebral Hemorrhage
- 2010
-
In: Annals of Neurology. - : Wiley. - 1531-8249 .- 0364-5134. ; 68:6, s. 934-943
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective: Prior studies investigating the association between APOE alleles epsilon 2/epsilon 4 and risk of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) have been inconsistent and limited to small sample sizes, and did not account for confounding by population stratification or determine which genetic risk model was best applied. Methods: We performed a large-scale genetic association study of 2189 ICH cases and 4041 controls from 7 cohorts, which were analyzed using additive models for epsilon 2 and epsilon 4. Results were subsequently meta-analyzed using a random effects model. A proportion of the individuals (322 cases, 357 controls) had available genome-wide data to adjust for population stratification. Results: Alleles epsilon 2 and epsilon 4 were associated with lobar ICH at genome-wide significance levels (odds ratio [OR] = 1.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.50-2.23, p = 6.6 x 10(-10); and OR = 2.20, 95%CI = 1.85-2.63, p = 2.4 x 10(-11), respectively). Restriction of analysis to definite/probable cerebral amyloid angiopathy ICH uncovered a stronger effect. Allele epsilon 4 was also associated with increased risk for deep ICH (OR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.08-1.36, p = 2.6 x 10(-4)). Risk prediction evaluation identified the additive model as best for describing the effect of APOE genotypes. Interpretation: APOE epsilon 2 and epsilon 4 are independent risk factors for lobar ICH, consistent with their known associations with amyloid biology. In addition, we present preliminary findings on a novel association between APOE epsilon 4 and deep ICH. Finally, we demonstrate that an additive model for these APOE variants is superior to other forms of genetic risk modeling previously applied. ANN NEUROL 2010;68:934-943
|
|
36. |
- Chung, Jaeyoon, et al.
(author)
-
Genome-wide association study of cerebral small vessel disease reveals established and novel loci
- 2019
-
In: Brain : a journal of neurology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1460-2156. ; 142:10, s. 3176-3189
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Intracerebral haemorrhage and small vessel ischaemic stroke (SVS) are the most acute manifestations of cerebral small vessel disease, with no established preventive approaches beyond hypertension management. Combined genome-wide association study (GWAS) of these two correlated diseases may improve statistical power to detect novel genetic factors for cerebral small vessel disease, elucidating underlying disease mechanisms that may form the basis for future treatments. Because intracerebral haemorrhage location is an adequate surrogate for distinct histopathological variants of cerebral small vessel disease (lobar for cerebral amyloid angiopathy and non-lobar for arteriolosclerosis), we performed GWAS of intracerebral haemorrhage by location in 1813 subjects (755 lobar and 1005 non-lobar) and 1711 stroke-free control subjects. Intracerebral haemorrhage GWAS results by location were meta-analysed with GWAS results for SVS from MEGASTROKE, using 'Multi-Trait Analysis of GWAS' (MTAG) to integrate summary data across traits and generate combined effect estimates. After combining intracerebral haemorrhage and SVS datasets, our sample size included 241 024 participants (6255 intracerebral haemorrhage or SVS cases and 233 058 control subjects). Genome-wide significant associations were observed for non-lobar intracerebral haemorrhage enhanced by SVS with rs2758605 [MTAG P-value (P) = 2.6 × 10-8] at 1q22; rs72932727 (P = 1.7 × 10-8) at 2q33; and rs9515201 (P = 5.3 × 10-10) at 13q34. In the GTEx gene expression library, rs2758605 (1q22), rs72932727 (2q33) and rs9515201 (13q34) are significant cis-eQTLs for PMF1 (P = 1 × 10-4 in tibial nerve), NBEAL1, FAM117B and CARF (P < 2.1 × 10-7 in arteries) and COL4A2 and COL4A1 (P < 0.01 in brain putamen), respectively. Leveraging S-PrediXcan for gene-based association testing with the predicted expression models in tissues related with nerve, artery, and non-lobar brain, we found that experiment-wide significant (P < 8.5 × 10-7) associations at three genes at 2q33 including NBEAL1, FAM117B and WDR12 and genome-wide significant associations at two genes including ICA1L at 2q33 and ZCCHC14 at 16q24. Brain cell-type specific expression profiling libraries reveal that SEMA4A, SLC25A44 and PMF1 at 1q22 and COL4A1 and COL4A2 at 13q34 were mainly expressed in endothelial cells, while the genes at 2q33 (FAM117B, CARF and NBEAL1) were expressed in various cell types including astrocytes, oligodendrocytes and neurons. Our cross-phenotype genetic study of intracerebral haemorrhage and SVS demonstrates novel genome-wide associations for non-lobar intracerebral haemorrhage at 2q33 and 13q34. Our replication of the 1q22 locus previous seen in traditional GWAS of intracerebral haemorrhage, as well as the rediscovery of 13q34, which had previously been reported in candidate gene studies with other cerebral small vessel disease-related traits strengthens the credibility of applying this novel genome-wide approach across intracerebral haemorrhage and SVS.
|
|
37. |
- Devan, William J., et al.
(author)
-
Heritability Estimates Identify a Substantial Genetic Contribution to Risk and Outcome of Intracerebral Hemorrhage
- 2013
-
In: Stroke: a journal of cerebral circulation. - 1524-4628. ; 44:6, s. 1578-1583
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background and Purpose-Previous studies suggest that genetic variation plays a substantial role in occurrence and evolution of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Genetic contribution to disease can be determined by calculating heritability using family-based data, but such an approach is impractical for ICH because of lack of large pedigree-based studies. However, a novel analytic tool based on genome-wide data allows heritability estimation from unrelated subjects. We sought to apply this method to provide heritability estimates for ICH risk, severity, and outcome. Methods-We analyzed genome-wide genotype data for 791 ICH cases and 876 controls, and determined heritability as the proportion of variation in phenotype attributable to captured genetic variants. Contribution to heritability was separately estimated for the APOE (encoding apolipoprotein E) gene, an established genetic risk factor, and for the rest of the genome. Analyzed phenotypes included ICH risk, admission hematoma volume, and 90-day mortality. Results-ICH risk heritability was estimated at 29% (SE, 11%) for non-APOE loci and at 15% (SE, 10%) for APOE. Heritability for 90-day ICH mortality was 41% for non-APOE loci and 10% (SE, 9%) for APOE. Genetic influence on hematoma volume was also substantial: admission volume heritability was estimated at 60% (SE, 70%) for non-APOE loci and at 12% (SE, 4%) for APOE. Conclusions-Genetic variation plays a substantial role in ICH risk, outcome, and hematoma volume. Previously reported risk variants account for only a portion of inherited genetic influence on ICH pathophysiology, pointing to additional loci yet to be identified.
|
|
38. |
- Falcone, Guido J., et al.
(author)
-
Burden of Risk Alleles for Hypertension Increases Risk of Intracerebral Hemorrhage
- 2012
-
In: Stroke: a journal of cerebral circulation. - 1524-4628. ; 43:11, s. 2877-2883
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background and Purpose-Genetic variation influences risk of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Hypertension (HTN) is a potent risk factor for ICH and several common genetic variants (single nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs]) associated with blood pressure levels have been identified. We sought to determine whether the cumulative burden of blood pressure-related SNPs is associated with risk of ICH and pre-ICH diagnosis of HTN. Methods-We conducted a prospective multicenter case-control study in 2272 subjects of European ancestry (1025 cases and 1247 control subjects). Thirty-nine SNPs reported to be associated with blood pressure levels were identified from the National Human Genome Research Institute genomewide association study catalog. Single-SNP association analyses were performed for the outcomes ICH and pre-ICH HTN. Subsequently, weighted and unweighted genetic risk scores were constructed using these SNPs and entered as the independent variable in logistic regression models with ICH and pre-ICH HTN as the dependent variables. Results-No single SNP was associated with either ICH or pre-ICH HTN. The blood pressure-based unweighted genetic risk score was associated with risk of ICH (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.02-1.21; P=0.01) and the subset of ICH in deep regions (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.07-1.30; P=0.001), but not with the subset of lobar ICH. The score was associated with a history of HTN among control subjects (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.04-1.31; P=0.009) and ICH cases (OR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.01-1.31; P=0.04). Similar results were obtained when using a weighted score. Conclusion-Increasing numbers of high blood pressure-related alleles are associated with increased risk of deep ICH as well as with clinically identified HTN. (Stroke. 2012; 43: 2877-2883.)
|
|
39. |
- Gonzalez, Arantxa, et al.
(author)
-
Cardiac remodelling - Part 1: From cells and tissues to circulating biomarkers. A review from the Study Group on Biomarkers of the Heart Failure Association of the European Society of Cardiology
- 2022
-
In: European Journal of Heart Failure. - : WILEY. - 1388-9842 .- 1879-0844. ; 24:6, s. 927-943
-
Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Cardiac remodelling refers to changes in left ventricular structure and function over time, with a progressive deterioration that may lead to heart failure (HF) development (adverse remodelling) or vice versa a recovery (reverse remodelling) in response to HF treatment. Adverse remodelling predicts a worse outcome, whilst reverse remodelling predicts a better prognosis. The geometry, systolic and diastolic function and electric activity of the left ventricle are affected, as well as the left atrium and on the long term even right heart chambers. At a cellular and molecular level, remodelling involves all components of cardiac tissue: cardiomyocytes, fibroblasts, endothelial cells and leucocytes. The molecular, cellular and histological signatures of remodelling may differ according to the cause and severity of cardiac damage, and clearly to the global trend toward worsening or recovery. These processes cannot be routinely evaluated through endomyocardial biopsies, but may be reflected by circulating levels of several biomarkers. Different classes of biomarkers (e.g. proteins, non-coding RNAs, metabolites and/or epigenetic modifications) and several biomarkers of each class might inform on some aspects on HF development, progression and long-term outcomes, but most have failed to enter clinical practice. This may be due to the biological complexity of remodelling, so that no single biomarker could provide great insight on remodelling when assessed alone. Another possible reason is a still incomplete understanding of the role of biomarkers in the pathophysiology of cardiac remodelling. Such role will be investigated in the first part of this review paper on biomarkers of cardiac remodelling.
|
|
40. |
- Marini, Sandro, et al.
(author)
-
17p12 Influences Hematoma Volume and Outcome in Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage
- 2018
-
In: Stroke. - 0039-2499. ; 49:7, s. 1618-1625
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background and Purpose-Hematoma volume is an important determinant of clinical outcome in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of hematoma volume with the aim of identifying novel biological pathways involved in the pathophysiology of primary brain injury in ICH. Methods-We conducted a 2-stage (discovery and replication) case-only genome-wide association study in patients with ICH of European ancestry. We utilized the admission head computed tomography to calculate hematoma volume via semiautomated computer-Assisted technique. After quality control and imputation, 7 million genetic variants were available for association testing with ICH volume, which was performed separately in lobar and nonlobar ICH cases using linear regression. Signals with P<5×10- 8 were pursued in replication and tested for association with admission Glasgow coma scale and 3-month post-ICH dichotomized (0-2 versus 3-6) modified Rankin Scale using ordinal and logistic regression, respectively. Results-The discovery phase included 394 ICH cases (228 lobar and 166 nonlobar) and identified 2 susceptibility loci: A genomic region on 22q13 encompassing PARVB (top single-nucleotide polymorphism rs9614326: β, 1.84; SE, 0.32; P=4.4×10-8) for lobar ICH volume and an intergenic region overlying numerous copy number variants on 17p12 (top single-nucleotide polymorphism rs11655160: β, 0.95; SE, 0.17; P=4.3×10-8) for nonlobar ICH volume. The replication included 240 ICH cases (71 lobar and 169 nonlobar) and corroborated the association for 17p12 (P=0.04; meta-Analysis P=2.5×10-9; heterogeneity, P=0.16) but not for 22q13 (P=0.49). In multivariable analysis, rs11655160 was also associated with lower admission Glasgow coma scale (odds ratio, 0.17; P=0.004) and increased risk of poor 3-month modified Rankin Scale (odds ratio, 1.94; P=0.045). Conclusions-We identified 17p12 as a novel susceptibility risk locus for hematoma volume, clinical severity, and functional outcome in nonlobar ICH. Replication in other ethnicities and follow-up translational studies are needed to elucidate the mechanism mediating the observed association.
|
|
41. |
- Rosano, Giuseppe, et al.
(author)
-
COVID-19 vaccination in patients with heart failure: a position paper of the Heart Failure Association of the European Society of Cardiology
- 2021
-
In: European Journal of Heart Failure. - : WILEY. - 1388-9842 .- 1879-0844. ; 23:11, s. 1806-1818
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Patients with heart failure (HF) who contract SARS-CoV-2 infection are at a higher risk of cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Regardless of therapeutic attempts in COVID-19, vaccination remains the most promising global approach at present for controlling this disease. There are several concerns and misconceptions regarding the clinical indications, optimal mode of delivery, safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines for patients with HF. This document provides guidance to all healthcare professionals regarding the implementation of a COVID-19 vaccination scheme in patients with HF. COVID-19 vaccination is indicated in all patients with HF, including those who are immunocompromised (e.g. after heart transplantation receiving immunosuppressive therapy) and with frailty syndrome. It is preferable to vaccinate against COVID-19 patients with HF in an optimal clinical state, which would include clinical stability, adequate hydration and nutrition, optimized treatment of HF and other comorbidities (including iron deficiency), but corrective measures should not be allowed to delay vaccination. Patients with HF who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 need to continue precautionary measures, including the use of facemasks, hand hygiene and social distancing. Knowledge on strategies preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection (including the COVID-19 vaccination) should be included in the comprehensive educational programmes delivered to patients with HF.
|
|
42. |
|
|
43. |
- Woo, Daniel, et al.
(author)
-
Meta-Analysis of Genome-Wide Association Studies Identifies 1q22 as a Susceptibility Locus for Intracerebral Hemorrhage.
- 2014
-
In: American Journal of Human Genetics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0002-9297. ; 94:4, s. 511-521
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is the stroke subtype with the worst prognosis and has no established acute treatment. ICH is classified as lobar or nonlobar based on the location of ruptured blood vessels within the brain. These different locations also signal different underlying vascular pathologies. Heritability estimates indicate a substantial genetic contribution to risk of ICH in both locations. We report a genome-wide association study of this condition that meta-analyzed data from six studies that enrolled individuals of European ancestry. Case subjects were ascertained by neurologists blinded to genotype data and classified as lobar or nonlobar based on brain computed tomography. ICH-free control subjects were sampled from ambulatory clinics or random digit dialing. Replication of signals identified in the discovery cohort with p < 1 × 10(-6) was pursued in an independent multiethnic sample utilizing both direct and genome-wide genotyping. The discovery phase included a case cohort of 1,545 individuals (664 lobar and 881 nonlobar cases) and a control cohort of 1,481 individuals and identified two susceptibility loci: for lobar ICH, chromosomal region 12q21.1 (rs11179580, odds ratio [OR] = 1.56, p = 7.0 × 10(-8)); and for nonlobar ICH, chromosomal region 1q22 (rs2984613, OR = 1.44, p = 1.6 × 10(-8)). The replication included a case cohort of 1,681 individuals (484 lobar and 1,194 nonlobar cases) and a control cohort of 2,261 individuals and corroborated the association for 1q22 (p = 6.5 × 10(-4); meta-analysis p = 2.2 × 10(-10)) but not for 12q21.1 (p = 0.55; meta-analysis p = 2.6 × 10(-5)). These results demonstrate biological heterogeneity across ICH subtypes and highlight the importance of ascertaining ICH cases accordingly.
|
|