| 1. |
- Hanson, C. E., et al.
(författare)
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Modelling the impact of climate extremes: an overview of the MICE project
- 2007
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 81:Suppl. 1, s. 163-177
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper provides an overview of the aims, objectives, research activities under-taken, and a selection of results generated in the European Commission-funded project entitled "Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes" (MICE) - a pan-European end-to-end assessment, from climate model to impact model, of the potential impacts of climate change on a range of economic sectors important to the region. MICE focussed on changes in temperature, precipitation and wind extremes. The research programme had three main themes - the evaluation of climate model performance, an assessment of the potential future changes in the occurrence of extremes, and an examination of the impacts of changes in extremes on six activity sectors using a blend of quantitative modelling and expert judgement techniques. MICE culminated in a large stakeholder-orientated workshop, the aim of which was not only to disseminate project results but also to develop new stakeholder networks, whose expertise can be drawn on in future projects such as ENSEMBLES. MICE is part of a cluster of three projects, all related to European climate change and its impacts. The other projects in the cluster are PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate Change Risks and Effects) and STARDEX (Statistical and Regional Dynamical Downscaling of Extremes for European Regions).
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Schlyter, F, et al.
(författare)
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A model for peak and width of signaling windows: Ips duplicatus and Chilo partellus pheromone component proportions - Does response have a wider window than production?
- 2001
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Ingår i: Journal of Chemical Ecology. - 1573-1561. ; 27:7, s. 1481-1511
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Pheromone communication systems have a reliable signal with a restricted window of amounts and ratios released and perceived. We propose a model based on a Gaussian response profile that allows a quantification of the response peak (location of optimum) and a measure of the peak width (response window). Interpreting the Gaussian curve, fitted by nonlinear regression (NLR), as a standard normal distribution, the peak location equals the mean (mu) and the window width equals 2x the standard deviation (2 sigma). The NLR procedure can provide an objective measure for both peak location and width for a wide range of data sets. Four empirical data sets as well as 10 literature data sets were analyzed. The double-spined spruce engraver, fps duplicatus, was field tested in four populations to find the optimum proportion for attraction to the two male aggregation pheromone components. ipsdienol (Id) and (E)-myrcenol (EM), ranging from 0 to 100% of Id. Tests in Norway and the Czech Republic confirmed the preference of western populations for a blend between 50 and 90% Id. A population in Inner Mongolia showed a preference for traps with the 10 and 50% Id baits. The NLR fitted values for response peak and width (mu; 2 sigma) were: Norway 0.64,0.73 Czech Republic 0.53, 0.73; NE China 0.77,0.29; and Inner Mongolia 0.33, 0.50. The signal produced by Norwegian field-collected males had a narrower window width (2 sigma = 0.12). Males of the maize stem borer, Chilo partellus, were tested in a flight tunnel for their response to variation in the two major female sex pheromone gland components, (Z)-11-hexadecenal and the corresponding alcohol (OH). Variation of the alcohol in seven levels from 2 to 29% OH showed the highest male response for 17% OH. For all behavioral steps, the peak of male response was near mu = 0.14, while the window width fell from 2 sigma = 0.5 to 0.2 for eight sequential behavioral steps from take-off to copulation. Female production had a similar peak location (mu = 0.13) but a narrower width, 2 sigma = 0.14. Literature data from other moth species showed similar patterns, with a wider male response relative to the female production windows. Literature data on response to enantiomer ratios in a hymenopteran and to pheromone amounts in a dipteran were also described by our model. In a bark beetle population (Ips pini), with two hybridizing enantiomeric strains, the production peaks were narrower (0.1) than the response peaks (0.5). Thus, it in general, seems that in the pheromone systems analyzed. the width of the response window (2 sigma = 0.1 to 0.9) is larger than that of the production window (2 sigma = 0.03 to 0.14), irrespective of the sex of the sender.
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| 4. |
- Zhang, QH, et al.
(författare)
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Olfactory responses of Ips duplicatus from inner Mongolia, China to nonhost leaf and bark volatiles
- 2001
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Ingår i: Journal of Chemical Ecology. - 1573-1561. ; 27:5, s. 995-1009
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Leaf and bark volatiles from nonhost angiosperm trees were tested on lps duplicatus by gas chromatographic-electroantennographic detection (GC-EAD) and by pheromone-baited traps in Sweden and Inner Mongolia, China, respectively. GC-EAD analysis of the headspace volatiles from fresh bark chips of Betula pubescens revealed trans-conophthorin, two green leaf Volatiles (GLVs): 1-hexanol and (Z)-3-hexen-1-ol, and two Cs alcohols: 3-octanol and 1-octen-3-ol, that consistently elicited antennal responses by I. duplicatus. The identification of these EAD-active compounds was confirmed in further GC-EAD recordings with synthetic mixtures. Antennal responses were also found to synthetic (E)-2-hexen-1-ol and linalool, which have been identifed from the leaves of nonhost birch and aspen species. No antennal responses of I. duplicatus were found to hexanal, (E)-2-hexenal, and (Z)-3-hexyl acetates. In field trapping experiments, blends of EAD-active green leaf alcohols or C-8 alcohols, or trans-conophthorin alone resulted in significant reductions (27-60%) in the number of I. duplicatus captured compared with pheromone-baited traps. The unsuitable host compound, verbenone (Vn), also significantly reduced trap catches by up to 60% in both experiments. The strongest disruptive effect resulted from the addition of the combination of green leaf alcohols, C-8 alcohols, and verbenone to the pheromone trap, which caused an 84% reduction in trap catch. The blend of two green leaf aldehydes plus the acetate increased the trap catches in 1998 and had no negative or positive effects in 1999. Our results suggest that these nonhost volatiles (NHVs) are important olfactory signals used by I. duplicatus in host selection. They may have great significance in developing semiochemical-based management programs for I. duplicatus by reducing or stopping attacks on suitable hosts.
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| 5. |
- Holmqvist, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Vesicular-arbuscular mycorrizae for dating multiple paleosols and carbon loss rate determination
- 2000
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Ingår i: Geoderma. - 0016-7061. ; 97:1-2, s. 125-133
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A promising technique for dating paleosols is reported based on radiocarbon (C-14) dating of asexual spores from vesicular-arbuscular mycorrizae (VAM). The soils are dispersed in water and some 6000-8000 spores separated by hand picking under a low power microscope. The dried spores are then dated by accelerator mass spectroscopy (AMS). A chronosequense of closely superimposed paleosols from an arctic/alpine meadow soil, northern Sweden, was dated and the long-term (i.e., over a millennium time-span) organic carbon loss rate determined. A very low carbon loss rate was obtained, 4.7 x 10(-4) +/- 9.2 x 10(-5) year(-1). It is argued that this approach is likely to give a better estimate for long-term loss than litter-bag studies covering a couple of decades. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 6. |
- Jönsson, Anna Maria, et al.
(författare)
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Climate change and the effect of temperature backlashes causing frost damage in Picea abies
- 2004
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Ingår i: Global and Planetary Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 1872-6364 .- 0921-8181. ; 44:1-4, s. 195-207
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In boreal and nemoboreal forests, tree frost hardiness is modified in reaction to cues from day length and temperature. The dehardening processes in Norway spruce, Picea abies, could be estimated to start when the daily mean temperature is above 5 degreesC for 5 days. Bud burst will occur approximately after 120-170 degree-days above 5 degreesC. dependent on genetic differences among provenances. A reduced cold hardiness level during autumn and spring and an advanced onset of bud burst are expected impacts of projected future global wart-ning. The aim of this study was to test if this will increase the risk for frost damage caused by temperature backlashes. This was tested for Sweden by comparing output from the Hadley Centre regional climate model, HadRM3H, for the period 1961-1990 with future IPCC scenario SRES A2 and B2 for 2070-2099. Different indices for calculating the susceptibility to frost damage were used to assess changes in frost damage risk. The indices were based on: (1) the start of dehardening; (2) the severity of the temperature backlash: (3) the timing of bud burst: and (4) the cold hardiness level. The start of dehardening and bud burst were calculated to occur earlier all over the country. which is in line with the overall warming in both climate change scenarios. The frequency of temperature backlashes that may cause frost damage was calculated to increase in the southern part, an effect that became gradually less pronounced towards the north. The different timing of the onset of dehardening mainly caused this systematic latitudinal pattern. In the south, it occurs early in the year when the seasonal temperature progression is slow and large temperature variations occur. In the north, dehardening will occur closer to the spring equinox when the temperature progression is faster. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Månsson, P. E., et al.
(författare)
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Nonanoic acid, other alkanoic acids and related compounds as antifeedants in Hylobius abietis pine weevils
- 2006
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Ingår i: Entomologia Experimentalis et Applicata. - : Wiley. - 0013-8703 .- 1570-7458. ; 121:3, s. 191-201
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A medium-length, straight-chain alkanoic acid, nonanoic acid, is known from laboratory microassays to be an antifeedant in adults of the large pine weevil, Hylobius abietis (L.) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae). Our hypothesis was that we could find new, less volatile alkanoic acids or related compounds suitable for field application and with improved long-term duration. Alkanoic acids of varying chain lengths (C6-C13) were tested for antifeedant activity in H. abietis adults. Microassay choice tests showed that straight-chain (C6-C11) alkanoic acids were active. However, high activities were restricted to the (C6-C10) acids, with the C9 (nonanoic acid) at 4 μmol cm-2 being the most active one. In a no-choice test on pine twigs, the antifeedant effect of C10 acid was lower than that of the C8 and C9 acids. In microassays, less volatile methyl-branched alkanoic acids exhibited lower antifeedant activities than did the corresponding straight-chain ones. However, the most active of the methyl-branched acids, 2-methyldecanoic acid, had an activity similar to that of nonanoic acid. Compounds related to nonanoic acid were either active (1-nonanol), weakly active (nonanoic anhydride), or inactive (nonanal, sodium nonanoate). The anhydride was highly active in the microassay, but less active on twigs. The antifeedant effects of the straight chain (C8-C10) alkanoic acids against pine weevil feeding were tested in the field. In contrast to the results from the twig tests, the less volatile C10 acid was more active in the field for the protection of transplants on fresh clear cuts over a 3-month period than both the C8 and C9 acids. Phytotoxic effects of the alkanoic acids were observed both in the field and in laboratory studies. If a protective layer of paraffin was applied to the stem prior to application of the alkanoic acids, these undesired side effects were reduced.
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| 10. |
- Nilsson, Carin, et al.
(författare)
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Recorded storm damage in Swedish forests 1901-2000
- 2004
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Ingår i: Forest Ecology and Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 1872-7042 .- 0378-1127. ; 199:1, s. 165-173
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Severe storm damage has been a recurring problem to the Swedish forestry sector since, at least, the start of the 19th century. This short communication presents a regionally resolved time-series of storm damage in Swedish forests during the last century. Data on storm damage have been gathered from the National Board of Forestry, the Regional Forestry Boards and scientific reports. Storm damage in Swedish forests seems to have increased during the century with a peak around the 1980s. In total 110 million m 3 forest were destroyed by 77 recorded wind storms, with the severe storms in 1954 and 1969 accounting for 49% of the total damage. Reported damage in southern Sweden was normalised against the area of productive forest with trees older than 40 years, for inter annual comparisons. The geostrophic wind was used to describe the regional wind direction during the storm events. Most damage occurred during NNW to SW winds, and by winds from NNE. Apart from a possible shift in storm intensity and frequency, the increase in storm damaged trees can be attributed to changes in regeneration and thinning regimes, variations in storm damage reporting system, increase in forest cover and various damage to root architecture.
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| 11. |
- SCHLYTER, F., et al.
(författare)
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Offspring per emergence hole at different attack densities in the Spruce Bark Beetle, Ips typographus (L.) (Coleoptera, Scolytidae)
- 1984
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Ingår i: Zeitschrift für Angewandte Entomologie. - : Wiley. - 0044-2240. ; 97:1-5, s. 244-248
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Field and laboratory data from the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus, showed that increased offspring production per unit bark area increased the average number that emerged per emergence hole. In the laboratory this offspring per hole ratio was investigated at different attack densities. Zahl der schlüpfenden Käfer pro Schlupfloch bei verschieden starkem Befall des Buchdruckers, Ips typographus (L.) (Coleoptera, Scolytidae) Es wurde beim Buchdrucker Ips typographus im Freiland und Laboratorium das Verhältnis zwischen der Zahl der ausgeflogenen Käfer und der Zahl der Fluglöcher (O/E) untersucht. Die mittlere Zahl geschlüpfter Käfer pro Flugloch nahm mit zunehmender Brutdichte zu. Laboruntersuchungen zeigten, daß die Dichteabhängigkeit durch die Gleichung O/E = 1.6 + 0.7 InD beschrieben werden konnte, wobei D die Dichte der Weibchen pro 100 cm2 ist. Die Ergebnisse weisen darauf hin, daß die Bestimmung der Buchdrucker‐Dichte nach der Anzahl der Fluglöcher nur unter Verwendung von Korrekturfaktoren möglich ist. 1984 Blackwell Verlag GmbH
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
- Schlyter, P, et al.
(författare)
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A regional overview
- 2002
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Ingår i: Developing principles and models for sustainable forestry in Sweden. - 1402009992
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Abstract is not available
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| 14. |
- Schlyter, P, et al.
(författare)
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Assessment of the impacts of climate change and weather extremes on boreal forests in northern Europe, focusing on Norway spruce
- 2006
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Ingår i: Climate Research. - 1616-1572. ; 31:1, s. 75-84
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The boreal and boreo-nemoral forests in Europe, which occur in northern and northeastern Europe, are dominated by 2 coniferous species, Norway spruce Picea abies (L.) Karst. being economically the most important one. Forestry is of major economic importance in this region. Forestry planning and climate change scenarios are based on similar (long-term) timescales, i.e. between 70 and 120 yr. Within the EU project 'Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes' (MICE), we have used 'present day' runs (1961-1990) and future scenarios (2070-2100, emission scenarios A2 and B2 from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [SRES]) of the HadRM3 regional climate model to study and model direct and indirect effects of changing climate on Norway spruce in Sweden and northern Europe. According to our results, extreme climate events like spring temperature backlashes and summer drought will increase in frequency and duration. In combination with a raised mean temperature, climate extremes will negatively precondition trees (i.e. increase their susceptibility) to secondary damage through pests and pathogens. Decreased forest vitality also makes stands more susceptible to windthrow. Storm damage is discussed based on a 100 yr storm damage record for Sweden. Marginally increased frequencies and windspeeds of storms may cause disproportionate increases in windthrow. Increased economic hazards can be expected from a combination of the increased volumes of wind-thrown timber, and a greater likelihood of additional generations of spruce bark beetle Ips typographus (further encouraged by the increase in fallen timber), as a result of a changing climate with warmer summers.
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