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- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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- Wilkening, S, et al.
(författare)
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Determination of allele frequency in pooled DNA: comparison of three PCR-based methods
- 2005
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Ingår i: BioTechniques. - : Future Science Ltd. - 0736-6205 .- 1940-9818. ; 39:6, s. 853-858
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Determination of allele frequency in pooled DNA samples is a powerful and efficient tool for large-scale association studies. In this study, we tested and compared three PCR-based methods for accuracy, reproducibility, cost, and convenience. The methods compared were: (i) real-time PCR with allele-specific primers, (ii) real-time PCR with allele-specific TaqMan® probes, and (iii) quantitative sequencing. Allele frequencies of three single nucleotide polymorphisms in three different genes were estimated from pooled DNA. The pools were made of genomic DNA samples from 96 cases with basal cell carcinoma of the skin and 96 healthy controls with known genotypes. In this study, the allele frequency estimation made by real-time PCR with allele-specific primers had the smallest median deviation (MD) from the real allele frequency with 1.12% (absolute percentage points) and was also the cheapest method. However, this method required the most time for optimization and showed the highest variation between replicates (SD = 6.47%). Quantitative sequencing, the simplest method, was found to have intermediate accuracies (MD = 1.44%, SD = 4.2%). Real-time PCR with TaqMan probes, a convenient but very expensive method, had an MD of 1.47% and the lowest variation between replicates (SD = 3.18%).
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- Wilkening, S, et al.
(författare)
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STR markers for kinship analysis
- 2006
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Ingår i: Human biology. - : Project Muse. - 0018-7143 .- 1534-6617. ; 78:1, s. 1-8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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