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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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- Abudurexiti, A, et al.
(författare)
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Taxonomy of the order Bunyavirales: update 2019
- 2019
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Ingår i: Archives of virology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1432-8798 .- 0304-8608. ; 164:7, s. 1949-1965
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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- Guo, JP, et al.
(författare)
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Sequencing of the MHC region defines HLA-DQA1 as the major genetic risk for seropositive rheumatoid arthritis in Han Chinese population
- 2019
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Ingår i: Annals of the rheumatic diseases. - : BMJ. - 1468-2060 .- 0003-4967. ; 78:6, s. 773-780
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The strong genetic contribution of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region to rheumatoid arthritis (RA) has been generally attributed to human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DRB1. However, due to the high polymorphisms and linkage disequilibrium within MHC, it is difficult to define novel and/or independent genetic risks using conventional HLA genotyping or chip-based microarray technology. This study aimed to identify novel RA risk variants by performing deep sequencing for MHC.MethodsWe first conducted target sequencing for the entire MHC region in 357 anticitrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA)-positive patients with RA and 1001 healthy controls, and then performed HLA typing in an independent case–control cohort consisting of 1415 samples for validation. All study subjects were Han Chinese. Genetic associations for RA susceptibility and severity were analysed. Comparative modelling was constructed to predict potential functions for the newly discovered RA association variants.ResultsHLA-DQα1:160D conferred the strongest and independent susceptibility to ACPA-positive RA (p=6.16×10−36, OR=2.29). DRβ1:37N had an independent protective effect (p=5.81×10−16, OR=0.49). As predicted by comparative modelling, the negatively charged DQα1:160D stabilises the dimer of dimers, thus may lead to an increased T cell activation. The negatively charged DRβ1:37N encoding alleles preferentially bind with epitope P9 arginine, thus may result in a decreased RA susceptibility.ConclusionsWe provide the first evidence that HLA-DQα1:160D, instead of HLA-DRB1*0405, is the strongest and independent genetic risk for ACPA-positive RA in Han Chinese. Our study also illustrates the value of deep sequencing for fine-mapping disease risk variants in the MHC region.
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