| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Religa, D., et al.
(författare)
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SveDem, the Swedish Dementia Registry - A tool for improving the quality of diagnostics, treatment and care of dementia patients in clinical practice
- 2015
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Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 10:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The Swedish Dementia Registry (SveDem) was developed with the aim to improve the quality of diagnostic work-up, treatment and care of patients with dementia disorders in Sweden. Methods: SveDem is an internet based quality registry where several indicators can be followed over time. It includes information about the diagnostic work-up, medical treatment and community support (www.svedem.se). The patients are diagnosed and followed-up yearly in specialist units, primary care centres or in nursing homes. Results: The database was initiated in May 2007 and covers almost all of Sweden. There were 28 722 patients registered with a mean age of 79.3 years during 2007-2012. Each participating unit obtains continuous online statistics from its own registrations and they can be compared with regional and national data. A report from SveDem is published yearly to inform medical and care professionals as well as political and administrative decision-makers about the current quality of diagnostics, treatment and care of patients with dementia disorders in Sweden. Conclusion: SveDem provides knowledge about current dementia care in Sweden and serves as a framework for ensuring the quality of diagnostics, treatment and care across the country. It also reflects changes in quality dementia care over time. Data from SveDem can be used to further develop the national guidelines for dementia and to generate new research hypotheses.
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| 5. |
- Bengtsson-Palme, Johan, 1985, et al.
(författare)
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Elucidating selection processes for antibiotic resistance in sewage treatment plants using metagenomics
- 2016
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 572, s. 697-712
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sewage treatment plants (STPs) have repeatedly been suggested as “hotspots” for the emergence and dissemination of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. A critical question still unanswered is if selection pressures within STPs, caused by residual antibiotics or other co-selective agents, are sufficient to specifically promote resistance. To address this, we employed shotgun metagenomic sequencing of samples from different steps of the treatment process in three Swedish STPs. In parallel, concentrations of selected antibiotics, biocides and metals were analyzed. We found that concentrations of tetracycline and ciprofloxacin in the influent were above predicted concentrations for resistance selection, however, there was no consistent enrichment of resistance genes to any particular class of antibiotics in the STPs, neither for biocide and metal resistance genes. The most substantial change of the bacterial communities compared to human feces occurred already in the sewage pipes, manifested by a strong shift from obligate to facultative anaerobes. Through the treatment process, resistance genes against antibiotics, biocides and metals were not reduced to the same extent as fecal bacteria. The OXA-48 gene was consistently enriched in surplus and digested sludge. We find this worrying as OXA-48, still rare in Swedish clinical isolates, provides resistance to carbapenems, one of our most critically important classes of antibiotics. Taken together, metagenomics analyses did not provide clear support for specific antibiotic resistance selection. However, stronger selective forces affecting gross taxonomic composition, and with that resistance gene abundances, limit interpretability. Comprehensive analyses of resistant/non-resistant strains within relevant species are therefore warranted.
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| 6. |
- Visuttijai, Kittichate, 1979-, et al.
(författare)
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Lowered Expression of Tumor Suppressor Candidate MYO1C Stimulates Cell Proliferation, Suppresses Cell Adhesion and Activates AKT
- 2016
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science. - 1932-6203. ; 11:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Myosin-1C (MYO1C) is a tumor suppressor candidate located in a region of recurrent losses distal to TP53. Myo1c can tightly and specifically bind to PIP2, the substrate of Phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K), and to Rictor, suggesting a role for MYO1C in the PI3K pathway. This study was designed to examine MYO1C expression status in a panel of well-stratified endometrial carcinomas as well as to assess the biological significance of MYO1C as a tumor suppressor in vitro. We found a significant correlation between the tumor stage and lowered expression of MYO1C in endometrial carcinoma samples. In cell transfection experiments, we found a negative correlation between MYO1C expression and cell proliferation, and MYO1C silencing resulted in diminished cell migration and adhesion. Cells expressing excess of MYO1C had low basal level of phosphorylated protein kinase B (PKB, a.k.a. AKT) and cells with knocked down MYO1C expression showed a quicker phosphorylated AKT (pAKT) response in reaction to serum stimulation. Taken together the present study gives further evidence for tumor suppressor activity of MYO1C and suggests MYO1C mediates its tumor suppressor function through inhibition of PI3K pathway and its involvement in loss of contact inhibition.
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| 7. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 8. |
- Zamora-Ros, Raul, et al.
(författare)
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Dietary polyphenol intake in europe : The european prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition (EPIC) study
- 2016
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Ingår i: European Journal of Nutrition. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-6207 .- 1436-6215. ; 55:4, s. 1359-1375
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background/Objectives Polyphenols are plant secondary metabolites with a large variability in their chemical structure and dietary occurrence that have been associated with some protective effects against several chronic diseases. To date, limited data exist on intake of polyphenols in populations. The current cross-sectional analysis aimed at estimating dietary intakes of all currently known individual polyphenols and total intake per class and subclass, and to identify their main food sources in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Methods Dietary data at baseline were collected using a standardized 24-h dietary recall software administered to 36,037 adult subjects. Dietary data were linked with Phenol- Explorer, a database with data on 502 individual polyphenols in 452 foods and data on polyphenol losses due to cooking and food processing. Results Mean total polyphenol intake was the highest in Aarhus—Denmark (1786 mg/day in men and 1626 mg/day in women) and the lowest in Greece (744 mg/day in men and 584 mg/day in women). When dividing the subjects into three regions, the highest intake of total polyphenols was observed in the UK healthconscious group, followed by non-Mediterranean (non- MED) and MED countries. The main polyphenol contributors were phenolic acids (52.5–56.9 %), except in men from MED countries and in the UK health-conscious group where they were flavonoids (49.1–61.7 %). Coffee, tea, and fruits were the most important food sources of total polyphenols. A total of 437 different individual polyphenols were consumed, including 94 consumed at a level [1 mg/day. The most abundant ones were the caffeoylquinic acids and the proanthocyanidin oligomers and polymers. Conclusion This study describes the large number of dietary individual polyphenols consumed and the high variability of their intakes between European populations, particularly between MED and non-MED countries.
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| 9. |
- de Mello, Vanessa D., et al.
(författare)
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Indolepropionic acid and novel lipid metabolites are associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes in the Finnish Diabetes Prevention Study
- 2017
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2045-2322. ; 7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wide-scale profiling technologies including metabolomics broaden the possibility of novel discoveries related to the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes (T2D). By applying non-targeted metabolomics approach, we investigated here whether serum metabolite profile predicts T2D in a well-characterized study population with impaired glucose tolerance by examining two groups of individuals who took part in the Finnish Diabetes Prevention Study (DPS); those who either early developed T2D (n = 96) or did not convert to T2D within the 15-year follow-up (n = 104). Several novel metabolites were associated with lower likelihood of developing T2D, including indole and lipid related metabolites. Higher indolepropionic acid was associated with reduced likelihood of T2D in the DPS. Interestingly, in those who remained free of T2D, indolepropionic acid and various lipid species were associated with better insulin secretion and sensitivity, respectively. Furthermore, these metabolites were negatively correlated with low-grade inflammation. We replicated the association between indolepropionic acid and T2D risk in one Finnish and one Swedish population. We suggest that indolepropionic acid, a gut microbiota-produced metabolite, is a potential biomarker for the development of T2D that may mediate its protective effect by preservation of alpha-cell function. Novel lipid metabolites associated with T2D may exert their effects partly through enhancing insulin sensitivity.
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| 10. |
- Skeie, Guri, et al.
(författare)
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Intake of whole grains and incidence of oesophageal cancer in the HELGA Cohort
- 2016
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Ingår i: European Journal of Epidemiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0393-2990 .- 1573-7284. ; 31:4, s. 405-414
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Few prospective studies have investigated the association between whole-grain consumption and incidence of oesophageal cancer. In the Scandinavian countries, consumption of whole grains is high and the incidence of oesophageal cancer comparably low. The aim of this paper was to study the associations between consumption of whole grains, whole-grain products and oesophageal cancer, including its two major histological subtypes. The HELGA cohort is a prospective cohort study consisting of three sub-cohorts in Norway, Sweden and Denmark. Information regarding whole-grain consumption was collected through country-specific food frequency questionnaires. Cancer cases were identified through national cancer registries. Cox proportional hazards ratios were calculated in order to assess the associations between whole grains and oesophageal cancer risk. The analytical cohort had 113,993 members, including 112 cases, and median follow-up time was 11 years. When comparing the highest tertile of intake with the lowest, the oesophageal cancer risk was approximately 45 % lower (adjusted HR 0.55, 95 % CI 0.31-0.97 for whole grains, HR 0.51, 95 % CI 0.30-0.88 for whole-grain products). Inverse associations were also found in continuous analyses. Whole-grain wheat was the only grain associated with lower risk (HR 0.32, 95 % CI 0.16-0.63 highest vs. lowest tertile). Among whole-grain products, the results were less clear, but protective associations were seen for the sum of whole-grain products, and whole-grain bread. Lower risk was seen in both histological subtypes, but particularly for squamous cell carcinomas. In this study, whole-grain consumption, particularly whole-grain wheat, was inversely associated with risk of oesophageal cancer.
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