| 1. |
- Andersson, Lotta, et al.
(author)
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Impact of climate change and development scenarios on flow patterns in the Okavango River
- 2006
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In: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 331:1-2, s. 43-57
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper lays the foundation for the use of scenario modelling as a tool for integrated water resource management in the Okavango River basin. The Pitman hydrological model is used to assess the impact of various development and climate change scenarios on downstream river flow. The simulated impact on modelled river discharge of increased water use for domestic use, livestock, and informal irrigation (proportional to expected population increase) is very limited. Implementation of all likely potential formal irrigation schemes mentioned in available reports is expected to decrease the annual flow by 2% and the minimum monthly flow by 5%. The maximum possible impact of irrigation on annual average flow is estimated as 8%, with a reduction of minimum monthly flow by 17%. Deforestation of all areas within a 1 km buffer around the rivers is estimated to increase the flow by 6%. However, construction of all potential hydropower reservoirs in the basin may change the monthly mean flow distribution dramatically, although under the assumed operational rules, the impact of the dams is only substantial during wet years. The simulated impacts of climate change are considerable larger that those of the development scenarios (with exception of the high development scenario of hydropower schemes) although the results are sensitive to the choice of GCM and the IPCC SRES greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. The annual mean water flow predictions for the period 2020-2050 averaged over scenarios from all the four GCMs used in this study are close to the present situation for both the A2 and B2 GHG scenarios. For the 2050-2080 and 2070-2099 periods the all-GCM mean shows a flow decrease of 20% (14%) and 26% (17%), respectively, for the A2 (B2) GHG scenarios. However, the uncertainty in the magnitude of simulated future changes remains high. The simulated effect of climate change on minimum monthly flow is proportionally higher than the impact on the annual mean flow. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 2. |
- Beven, Keith
(author)
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A manifesto for the equifinality thesis
- 2006
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In: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 320:1-2, s. 18-36
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This essay discusses some of the issues involved in the identification and predictions of hydrological models given some calibration data. The reasons for the incompleteness of traditional calibration methods are discussed. The argument is made that the potential for multiple acceptable models as representations of hydrological and other environmental systems (the equifinality thesis) should be given more serious consideration than hitherto. It proposes some techniques for an extended GLUE methodology to make it more rigorous and outlines some of the research issues still to be resolved. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.
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| 3. |
- Beven, Keith J, et al.
(author)
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Comment on “Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: Incoherence of the GLUE methodology” by Pietro Mantovan and Ezio Todini
- 2007
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In: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 338:3-4, s. 315-318
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This comment is a response to the criticisms of the GLUE methodology by [Mantovan, P., Todini, E., 2006. Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: Incoherence of the GLUE methodology, J. Hydrology, 2006]. In this comment it is shown that the formal Bayesian identification of models is a special case of GLUE that can be used where the modeller is prepared to make very strong assumptions about the nature of the modelling errors. For the hypothetical study of Mantovan and Todini, exact assumptions were assumed known for the formal Bayesian identification, but were then ignored in the application of GLUE to the same data. We show that a more reasonable application of GLUE to this problem using similar prior knowledge shows that gives equally coherent results to the formal Bayes identification. In real applications, subject to input and model structural error it is suggested that the coherency condition of MT06 cannot hold at the single observation level and that the choice of a formal Bayesian likelihood function may then be incoherent. In these (more interesting) cases, GLUE can be coherent in the application of likelihood measures based on blocks of data, but different choices of measures and blocks effectively represent different beliefs about the information content of data in real applications with input and model structural errors.
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| 4. |
- Beven, Keith, et al.
(author)
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So just why would a modeller choose to be incoherent?
- 2008
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In: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 354:1-4, s. 15-32
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This article provides an extended response to the criticisms of the GLUE methodology by Mantovan and Todini [Mantovan, P., Todini, E., 2006. Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: incoherence of the GLUE methodology. J. Hydrol. 330, 368-381]. It is shown that the formal Bayesian identification of models is a special case of GLUE that can be used where the modeller is prepared to make very strong assumptions about the nature of the modelling errors. Under such assumptions, GLUE can be coherent in the sense of Manotvan and Todini. In real applications, however, with multiple sources of uncertainty including model structural error, their strong definition of coherence is shown to be inapplicable to the extent that the choice of a format likelihood function based on a simple error structure may be an incoherent choice. It is demonstrated by some relatively minor modifications of their hypothetical example that misspecification of the error model and the non-stationarities associated with the presence of input error and model structural error in the Bayes approach will then produce well-defined but incorrect parameter distributions. This empirical result is quite independent of GLUE, but the flexibility of the GLUE approach may then prove to be an advantage in providing more coherent and robust choices of model evaluation in these cases and, by analogy, in other non-ideal cases for real applications. At the current time it is difficult to make a reasoned choice between methods of uncertainty estimation for real applications because of a lack of understanding of the real information content of data in conditioning models.
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| 5. |
- Chen, H., et al.
(author)
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Historical temporal trends of hydro-climatic variables and runoff response to climate variability and their relevance in water resource management in the Hanjiang basin
- 2007
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In: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 344:3-4, s. 171-184
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Danjiangkou reservoir lies in the upper Hanjiang basin and is the source of water for the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) in China. Any significant change in the magnitude or timing of runoff from the Danjiangkou reservoir induced by changes in climatic variables would have significant implications for the economic prosperity of the area in the Hanjiang basin as well as for the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. In this paper the following issues are investigated: (1) Temporal trends of annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature from 1951 to 2003 in the Hanjiang basin are analyzed using the Mann–Kendall and the linear regression methods; spatial distributions of precipitation and temperature are interpolated by the inverse distance weighted interpolation method. (2) Temporal trends of runoff, precipitation and temperature from 1951 to 2003 in the Danjiangkou reservoir, an upper stream basin of the Hanjiang River, are further tested. (3) To assess the impact of climate change on water resources and predict the future runoff change in the Danjiangkou reservoir basin, a two-parameter water balance model is used to simulate the hydrological response for the climate change predicted by GCMs for the region for the period of 2021–2050. The results indicate that (1) at the α = 0.05 significance level precipitation in the Hanjiang basin has no trend, but the temperature in the same region has significant upward trends in most parts of the Hanjiang basin. (2) The mean annual, spring, and winter runoffs in the Danjiangkou reservoir basin have decreasing trends. (3) The results simulated for the period 2021–2050 show that runoff of the Danjiangkou reservoir would increase in all the seasons, mainly in response to the predicted precipitation increase in the region. Sensitivity analysis shows that a 1 °C and 2 °C increase in temperature would reduce the mean annual runoff to about 3.5% and 7%, respectively. A decrease/increase of the mean monthly precipitation of 20% and 10% would decrease/increase the mean annual runoff to about 30% and 15%, respectively. The results of this study provide a scientific reference not only for assessing the impact of the climate change on water resources and the flood prevention in the Hanjiang basin, but also for dimensioning the middle route of the SNWDP in China.
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| 6. |
- Choi, H.T., et al.
(author)
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Multi-period and Multi-criteria Model Conditioning to Reduce Prediction Uncertainty in Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Modelling within GLUE framework
- 2007
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In: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 332:3-4, s. 316-336
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A new approach to multi-criteria model evaluation is presented. The approach is consistent with the equifinality thesis and is developed within the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework. The predictions of Monte Carlo realisations of TOPMODEL parameter sets are evaluated using a number of performance measures calibrated for both global (annual) and seasonal (30 day) periods. The seasonal periods were clustered using a Fuzzy C-means algorithm, into 15 types representing different hydrological conditions. The model shows good performance on a classical efficiency measure at the global level, but no model realizations were found that were behavioural over all multi-period clusters and all performance measures, raising questions about what should be considered as an acceptable model performance. Prediction uncertainties can still be calculated by allowing that different clusters require different parameter sets. Variations in parameter distributions between clusters, as well as examination of where observed discharges depart from model prediction bounds, give some indication of model structure deficiencies.
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| 7. |
- Cornelissen, Gerard, et al.
(author)
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Transport of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and polychlorinated biphenyls in a landfill : A novel equilibrium passive sampler to determine free and total dissolved concentrations in leachate water
- 2009
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In: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 369:04-mar, s. 253-259
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Equilibrium passive sampling devices consisting of 17-mu m thick polyoxymethylene (POM) were in situ deployed as a novel technique for landfill groundwater leachate water sampling of freely dissolved poly-cyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). POM was deployed in two groundwater leachate wells (flow around 100 m y(-1)) and an effluent leachate tank. The dissipation of >90% of spiked performance reference compounds and comparison between 60 d and 140 d of equilibration confirmed that POM-water equilibrium was reached for all PAHs and most PCBs within 60 d. Comparison of total and freely dissolved concentrations yielded dissolved organic carbon-water distribution ratios that were on average 0.4 log-unit below amorphous organic carbon-water distribution ratios and in accordance with literature values. Particle-bound fractions ranged from 50% (small PAHs) to 99.9% (large PCBs), and were >95% for most compounds. It was concluded that POM-17 equilibrium passive samplers provide a facile method to measure freely dissolved concentrations of PAH and PCB in groundwater leachate, which will yield valuable information on its ecotoxicological risk for aquatic and benthic organisms.
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| 8. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(author)
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A technique for the calibration of hydraulic models using uncertain satellite observations of flood extent
- 2009
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In: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 367:3-4, s. 276-282
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper presents a methodology to calibrate hydraulic models using possibility of inundation maps derived from satellite imagery. The study was performed on a river reach of the Lower Dee, UK, where a coarse resolution image (ENVISAT ASAR) and high resolution satellite image (ERS-2 SAR) were acquired at the same time during the December 2006 flood event. Ten different flood extent maps were derived from the two flood images by using five different procedures to process these data. These flood extent maps were used to perform a sensitivity analysis of a simple raster-based inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP). The sensitivity analysis enabled us to investigate the capability of the two different resolution images to calibrate the friction parameters of the flood inundation model. The analysis showed that the optimal parameters of the model depend on the type of satellite image used to evaluate the model as well as on the particular procedure used to derive the flood extent map. Finally, the study developed a novel methodology to calibrate flood inundation models by comparing the model results to a possibility of inundation map obtained by combining the ten different flood extent maps.
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| 9. |
- Du, Jinkang, et al.
(author)
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Development and testing of a new storm runoff routing approach based on time variant spatially distributed travel time method
- 2009
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In: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 369:1-2, s. 44-54
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In this study, a GIS based simple and easily performed runoff routing approach based on travel time was developed to simulate storm runoff response process with consideration of spatial and temporal variability of runoff generation and flow routing through hillslope and river network. The watershed was discretized into grid cells, which were then classified into overland cells and channel cells through river network delineation from the DEM by use of GIS. The overland flow travel time of each overland cell was estimated by combining a steady state kinematic wave approximation with Manning’s equation, the channel flow travel time of each channel cell was estimated using Manning’s equation and the steady state continuity equation. The travel time from each grid cell to the watershed outlet is the sum of travel times of cells along the flow path. The direct runoff flow was determined by the sum of the volumetric flow rates from all contributing cells at each respective travel time for all time intervals. The approach was calibrated and verified to simulate eight storm runoff processes of Jiaokou Reservoir watershed, a sub-catchment of the Yongjiang River basin in southeast China using available topography, soil and land use data for the catchment. An average efficiency of 0.88 was obtained for the verification storms. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the effect of the area threshold of delineating river networks and parameter K relating channel velocity calculation on the predicted hydrograph at the basin outlet. The effects of different levels of grid size on the results were also studied, which showed that good results could be attained with a grid size of less than 200 m in this study. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 10. |
- Du, Jinkang, et al.
(author)
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Development and testing of a simple physically-based distributed rainfall-runoff model for storm runoff simulation in humid forested basins
- 2007
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In: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 336:3-4, s. 334-346
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A distributed rainfall-runoff model was developed to predict storm runoff from humid forested catchments. The model is physically based and takes into account the saturation excess overland flow mechanism and preferential subsurface flow. The watershed is discretized into a number of square grids, which then are classified into overland flow and channel flow elements based on water flow properties. On the overland elements, Infiltration, overland flow and lateral subsurface flow are estimated, while on channel flow elements river flow routing is performed. Lateral subsurface flow is calculated using Darcy’s law and the continuity equation, whereas overland flow and channel flow are modeled using a one dimensional kinematic wave approximation to the St. Venant equations. The model governing equations are solved by an implicit finite difference scheme. While using process-based equations and physically meaningful parameters, the model still maintains a relatively simple structure. Most of the model parameters can be derived from digital elevation models (DEMs), digital soil and land use data, and the remainder of the parameters that are comparatively sensitive can be determined by model calibration. The model is tested using nine storm events in the Jiaokou watershed, a sub-basin of Yongjiang River in Zhejiang Province, China. Of these storms, one storm is used for calibrating the model parameters and the remaining eight storms are used to verify the model. When judged by the model efficiency coefficient (R2), volume conversation index (VCI), absolute error of the time to peak (ΔT), and relative error of the peak flow rate (δPmax), acceptable results are achieved. Sensitivity analysis shows that the model is sensitive to saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), Manning’s roughness coefficients (n) and the initial soil moisture content.
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