| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Dehghan, M., et al.
(author)
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Association of dairy intake with cardiovascular disease and mortality in 21 countries from five continents (PURE): a prospective cohort study
- 2018
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In: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 392:10161, s. 2288-2297
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Dietary guidelines recommend minimising consumption of whole-fat dairy products, as they are a source of saturated fats and presumed to adversely affect blood lipids and increase cardiovascular disease and mortality. Evidence for this contention is sparse and few data for the effects of dairy consumption on health are available from low-income and middle-income countries. Therefore, we aimed to assess the associations between total dairy and specific types of dairy products with mortality and major cardiovascular disease. Methods The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large multinational cohort study of individuals aged 35-70 years enrolled from 21 countries in five continents. Dietary intakes of dairy products for 136 384 individuals were recorded using country-specific validated food frequency questionnaires. Dairy products comprised milk, yoghurt, and cheese. We further grouped these foods into whole-fat and low-fat dairy. The primary outcome was the composite of mortality or major cardiovascular events (defined as death from cardiovascular causes, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure). Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using multivariable Cox frailty models with random intercepts to account for clustering of participants by centre. Findings Between Jan 1, 2003, and July 14, 2018, we recorded 10 567 composite events (deaths [n=6796] or major cardiovascular events [n=5855]) during the 9.1 years of follow-up. Higher intake of total dairy (>2 servings per day compared with no intake) was associated with a lower risk of the composite outcome (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.75-0.94; p(trend) 0.0004), total mortality (0.83, 0.72-0.96; p(trend) 0.0052), non-cardiovascular mortality (0.86, 0.72-1.02; p(trend)=0.046), cardiovascular mortality (0.77, 0.58-1.01; p(trend)=0.029), major cardiovascular disease (0.78, 0.67-0.90; p(trend)=0.0001), and stroke (0.66, 0.53-0.82; p(trend)=0.0003). No significant association with myocardial infarction was observed (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.71-1.11;p(trend)=0.163). Higher intake (>1 serving vs no intake) of milk (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.82-0.99; p(trend)=0.0529) and yogurt (0.86, 0.75-0.99; p(trend)=0.0051) was associated with lower risk of the composite outcome, whereas cheese intake was not significantly associated with the composite outcome (0.88, 0.76-1.02; p(trend)=0.1399). Butter intake was low and was not significantly associated with clinical outcomes (HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.90-1.33; p(trend)=0.4113). Interpretation Dairy consumption was associated with lower risk of mortality and major cardiovascular disease events in a diverse multinational cohort. Copyright (c) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 3. |
- Mente, A., et al.
(author)
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Urinary sodium excretion, blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, and mortality: a community-level prospective epidemiological cohort study
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 392:10146, s. 496-506
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background WHO recommends that populations consume less than 2 g/day sodium as a preventive measure against cardiovascular disease, but this target has not been achieved in any country. This recommendation is primarily based on individual-level data from short-term trials of blood pressure (BP) without data relating low sodium intake to reduced cardiovascular events from randomised trials or observational studies. We investigated the associations between community-level mean sodium and potassium intake, cardiovascular disease, and mortality. Methods The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology study is ongoing in 21 countries. Here we report an analysis done in 18 countries with data on clinical outcomes. Eligible participants were adults aged 35-70 years without cardiovascular disease, sampled from the general population. We used morning fasting urine to estimate 24 h sodium and potassium excretion as a surrogate for intake. We assessed community-level associations between sodium and potassium intake and BP in 369 communities (all >50 participants) and cardiovascular disease and mortality in 255 communities (all >100 participants), and used individual-level data to adjust for known confounders. Findings 95 767 participants in 369 communities were assessed for BP and 82 544 in 255 communities for cardiovascular outcomes with follow-up for a median of 8.1 years. 82 (80%) of 103 communities in China had a mean sodium intake greater than 5 g/day, whereas in other countries 224 (84%) of 266 communities had a mean intake of 3-5 g/day. Overall, mean systolic BP increased by 2.86 mm Hg per 1 g increase in mean sodium intake, but positive associations were only seen among the communities in the highest tertile of sodium intake (p<0.0001 for heterogeneity). The association between mean sodium intake and major cardiovascular events showed significant deviations from linearity (p=0.043) due to a significant inverse association in the lowest tertile of sodium intake (lowest tertile <4.43 g/day, mean intake 4.04 g/day, range 3.42-4.43; change -1.00 events per 1000 years, 95% CI -2.00 to -0.01, p=0.0497), no association in the middle tertile (middle tertile 4.43-5.08 g/day, mean intake 4.70 g/day, 4.44-5.05; change 0.24 events per 1000 years, -2.12 to 2.61, p=0.8391), and a positive but non-significant association in the highest tertile (highest tertile >5.08 g/day, mean intake 5.75 g/day, >5.08-7.49; change 0.37 events per 1000 years, -0.03 to 0.78, p=0.0712). A strong association was seen with stroke in China (mean sodium intake 5.58 g/day, 0.42 events per 1000 years, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.67, p=0.0020) compared with in other countries (4.49 g/day, -0.26 events, -0.46 to -0.06, p=0.0124; p<0.0001 for heterogeneity). All major cardiovascular outcomes decreased with increasing potassium intake in all countries. Interpretation Sodium intake was associated with cardiovascular disease and strokes only in communities where mean intake was greater than 5 g/day. A strategy of sodium reduction in these communities and countries but not in others might be appropriate. Funding Population Health Research Institute, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Canadian Institutes of Health Canada Strategy for Patient-Oriented Research, Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario, and European Research Council. Copyright (c) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 4. |
- Chow, C. K., et al.
(author)
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Availability and affordability of essential medicines for diabetes across high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective epidemiological study
- 2018
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In: Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2213-8587. ; 6:10, s. 798-808
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Data are scarce on the availability and affordability of essential medicines for diabetes. Our aim was to examine the availability and affordability of metformin, sulfonylureas, and insulin across multiple regions of the world and explore the effect of these on medicine use. Methods In the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study, participants aged 35-70 years (n=156 625) were recruited from 110 803 households, in 604 communities and 22 countries; availability (presence of any dose of medication in the pharmacy on the day of audit) and medicine cost data were collected from pharmacies with the Environmental Profile of a Community's Health audit tool. Our primary analysis was to describe the availability and affordability of metformin and insulin and also commonly used and prescribed combinations of two medicines for diabetes management (two oral drugs, metformin plus a sulphonylurea [either glibenclamide (also known as glyburide) or gliclazide] and one oral drug plus insulin [metformin plus insulin]). Medicines were defined as affordable if the cost of medicines was less than 20% of capacity-to-pay (the household income minus food expenditure). Our analyses included data collected in pharmacies and data from representative samples of households. Data on availability were ascertained during the pharmacy audit, as were data on cost of medications. These cost data were used to estimate the cost of a month's supply of essential medicines for diabetes. We estimated affordability of medicines using income data from household surveys. Findings Metformin was available in 113 (100%) of 113 pharmacies from high-income countries, 112 (88.2%) of 127 pharmacies in upper-middle-income countries, 179 (86.1%) of 208 pharmacies in lower-middle-income countries, 44 (64.7%) of 68 pharmacies in low-income countries (excluding India), and 88 (100%) of 88 pharmacies in India. Insulin was available in 106 (93.8%) pharmacies in high-income countries, 51 (40.2%) pharmacies in upper-middle-income countries, 61 (29.3%) pharmacies in lower-middle-income countries, seven (10.3%) pharmacies in lower-income countries, and 67 (76.1%) of 88 pharmacies in India. We estimated 0.7% of households in high-income countries and 26.9% of households in low-income countries could not afford metformin and 2.8% of households in high-income countries and 63.0% of households in low-income countries could not afford insulin. Among the 13 569 (8.6% of PURE participants) that reported a diagnosis of diabetes, 1222 (74.0%) participants reported diabetes medicine use in high-income countries compared with 143 (29.6%) participants in low-income countries. In multilevel models, availability and affordability were significantly associated with use of diabetes medicines. Interpretation Availability and affordability of essential diabetes medicines are poor in low-income and middle-income countries. Awareness of these global differences might importantly drive change in access for patients with diabetes.
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| 5. |
- Murphy, A., et al.
(author)
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Inequalities in the use of secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease by socioeconomic status: evidence from the PURE observational study
- 2018
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In: Lancet Global Health. - 2214-109X. ; 6:3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background There is little evidence on the use of secondary prevention medicines for cardiovascular disease by socioeconomic groups in countries at different levels of economic development. Methods We assessed use of antiplatelet, cholesterol, and blood-pressure-lowering drugs in 8492 individuals with self-reported cardiovascular disease from 21 countries enrolled in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. Defining one or more drugs as a minimal level of secondary prevention, wealth-related inequality was measured using the Wagstaff concentration index, scaled from -1 (pro-poor) to 1 (pro-rich), standardised by age and sex. Correlations between inequalities and national health-related indicators were estimated. Findings The proportion of patients with cardiovascular disease on three medications ranged from 0% in South Africa (95% CI 0-1.7), Tanzania (0-3.6), and Zimbabwe (0-5.1), to 49.3% in Canada (44.4-54.3). Proportions receiving at least one drug varied from 2.0% (95% CI 0.5-6.9) in Tanzania to 91.4% (86.6-94.6) in Sweden. There was significant (p<0.05) pro-rich inequality in Saudi Arabia, China, Colombia, India, Pakistan, and Zimbabwe. Pro-poor distributions were observed in Sweden, Brazil, Chile, Poland, and the occupied Palestinian territory. The strongest predictors of inequality were public expenditure on health and overall use of secondary prevention medicines. Interpretation Use of medication for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease is alarmingly low. In many countries with the lowest use, pro-rich inequality is greatest. Policies associated with an equal or pro-poor distribution include free medications and community health programmes to support adherence to medications. Copyright (c) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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